Author Archive for ValueWalk

Pension Flows Add 5 More Years To Credit Boom/Bust Cycle

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The pension crisis has been capturing headlines for years, but there’s another layer to the pension issue that’s starting to draw attention to itself. Public pension funds have shown an increasing appetite for credit and related holdings, the latest round of pension flows demonstrates that this trend continues One analyst believes pensions are largely to blame for the extremes of the boom/ bust cycles we’ve seen over the last year or so. He now suggests that the equity bull market could last another five years—thanks to the extremes driven by pension funds.

pension flows

pasja1000 / Pixabay

How pension funds are driving financial engineering

Canaccord Genuity analyst Brian Reynolds argued recently that pension funds are to blame for the extreme boom and bust cycles we’ve been seeing the last few years. He has also observed frequently that pension flows are being increasingly earmarked for credit. Now in his latest report, he explained the financial engineering dynamic he sees in pension flows and credit allocations.


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

The term “financial engineering” is somewhat of a dirty word these days, and Reynolds appears to look upon the phrase with a similar view. He said the top question he’s been asked about over the last few weeks is whether the equity market has climbed too fast since the beginning of the year. Although he said this “may be true from a very short-term technical position,” it isn’t true based on the actions of credit investors.

“They have been gobbling up new corporate bond issues and are setting up to devour even more in the years ahead,” he wrote.

He also said public pensions have been racking up record new tax flows and allocating all that extra capital to credit. In fact, he keeps finding more pensions which planning to raise taxes to further increase the credit boom. For example, he said Illinois’ governor proposed—among other things—to borrow $2 billion to put into the state’s significantly underfunded pensions. Kansas and Houston have already borrowed money to increase their pensions in the current cycle, he added.

Connecticut’s new governor wants to increase taxes to boost pension funding as well, like by expanding the state’s…
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Crescat Capital On The “Macro Trade of The Century” Short Bet

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Via Crescat Capital

At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was only the beginning of a downturn in asset prices from record global leverage and central-bank-driven asset bubbles for this cycle. US asset bubbles only just began to burst at the end of last year as on can see in the chart below.

Year to date, global stocks and corporate credit have rallied back while economic indicators have continued to deteriorate. This is setting the market up for another down-leg. We haven’t even had a recession yet and US stocks are still near record valuations across a breadth of measures. There is tremendous shorting opportunity ahead! With the current quarter, we are now in a tie with the 1990s for the longest US economic expansion ever. Our macro models based on an abundance of indicators show that the expansion is about to turn into recession within the next several quarters.

How do we get to a recession? US stock market and corporate credit bubble must burst first. That is how the business cycle works. It started in the fourth quarter, but that was only the beginning. How do bubbles burst? The smart money sells first from record valuations, then the rest of the world follows. Note in the chart below how insiders began selling heavily in early 2017. But the rest of the world did not follow. The stock market kept going higher. So, they sold again in early 2018. That time, the stock market finally began to falter. Global stocks peaked and kept going down. But the US market went to new highs again in September 2018. Now insiders are selling heavily again in early 2019. The third time should be the charm.

……………..
However, on a risk-adjusted basis, we are attempting to do better than this model. We arebalancing and managing our overall exposure with a conditional value-at-risk model.
We arealso going for high alpha versus the indices through individual stock selection.
In gold bullmarkets, silver tends to perform even better than gold, and gold and


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Stability Of The Earnings Stream

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

“Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with a fine result.” – Charlie Munger,  “A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business

Stability Of The Earnings Stream

3844328 / Pixabay

Ashva Capital’s sole focus is the long-term compounding of your capital through investments in high-quality publicly traded securities in the Indian equity market. We seek to find businesses that produce high returns on equity and that are capable of compounding capital at high rates of return over long periods of time. I’m looking for businesses that are compounding machines and am guided by the following investment beliefs:


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

  • High returns on capital are important. Over the long-term it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it.
  • We attempt to purchase companies trading at a discount to our estimate of future cash flows. However, companies with a sustainable competitive advantage are rare. Thus, it’s better to pay a fair price for a great business than a great price for a fair business.
  • High turnover in the portfolio acts as a “tax” on returns.
  • Companies that are capable of compounding your capital over the long-term must have the ability to earn high returns on reinvested capital.

I use a variety of valuation techniques but primarily rely on discounted cash flow valuation. The portfolio is comprised of investments that have the most upside potential and that meet my initial return hurdle rate. Once an investment is made I will sell only in the instance that the underlying investment thesis is no longer valid or valuation levels reach an extreme level based on historical data.

Stability Of The Earnings Stream

Obviously, we…
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Shareholder Concerned With Leo Strine’s Stance On ESG Issues

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Notes from New Orleans (not a Preservation Hall record):

  • Citi’s co-head of global M&A, Mark Shafir, gave the traditional banker’s overview of the market for transactions at the opening of the conference. “My client conversations suggest people are still interested in doing deals, even if the numbers don’t,” was the (traditional banker’s) message. Yet indicators suggest that M&A could be down between 17% and 25% in 2019, depending on how far back the indicators go. One factor among many: activism “is clearly alive and well,” Shafir said. “It’s been a terrific performer, so it’s certainly not going away.” Wellington Asset Management intervening in Bristol-Myers Squibb’s acquisition of Celgene got a shout out.
Leo Strine

rawpixel / Pixabay

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

  • An indicator of our own: according to Activist Insight Online, 29 companies worldwide had been targeted by activist investors advancing M&A demands by March 8, a decline on the 37 seen at a similar stage in 2018. Opposition to M&A has surged in the U.S. during that short period but, as usual, is behind pro-deal activism.
  • A discussion of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues as a shareholder concern between current Delaware Chief Justice Leo Strine and his predecessor Myron Steele agreed that they were “here to stay” and pointed to formal European concessions to workers’ interests as areas where the U.S. was relatively modest in its deference to ESG, while adding that “top-down” approaches – such as Elizabeth Warren’s suggested reforms – were less likely to be effective than leaving the matter to shareholders.
  • Ted Yu, chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s M&A office, said 13D reporting rules are not currently on the rulemaking agenda but added, “Through our filing review programs, we do see quite a bit of 13D disclosure that gives us pause.” Item four disclosures often rely too heavily on boilerplate disclosures and don’t reflect reality, he added. Leo Strine argued the activist’s purpose was of secondary concern, behind better disclosure on its net exposure (i.e. hedges), and how long-term its capital is. Nonetheless, guidance on item four could be coming.
  • Yu also said activists using the Edgar filing system to cheaply solicit support but not seeking proxy voting authority (typically withhold


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Retail Apocalypse: It Is Just Like Lenin Said

By Alex Gavrish. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In a cult movie “Big Lebowski” the Dude, while enjoying a game of bowling with his friends, quotes Russian revolutionary V. Lenin: “It is just like Lenin said: you look for the person who will benefit… and, uh, you know, you know”. It is unclear whether Lenin actually has said this, but one way or another, there is a point.

retail apocalypse

Free-Photos / Pixabay

According to data recently released by Coresight Research, year to date, US retailers have announced 4,810 store closures (and 2,264 store openings). Among those to close stores are such companies as Gap, Victoria’s Secret (L Brands), Chico’s FAS, Payless ShoeSource, and others. And the year only started. This trend continues for a few years already.


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

But let’s leave aside all the emotions and hardships faced by retailers. The question investors should ask themselves is: who will benefit from all this? Obviously, it is not real estate owners as they will be under pressure to offer lower rent and find replacement tenants. A small effort in second-level thinking and bingo! The obvious thought that comes to mind is that one possible beneficiary of lower rent prices and greater choice of available locations are restaurant chains. In addition, certain retailers with plain return-per-store vs cost-of-opening concepts can profit as well.

It is no coincidence that activist investors are starting to bite into the sector. About a month ago, activist investor Starboard Value unveiled an investment into Papa John’s Pizza chain. While activist investors acquire large stakes through purchase of shares in the open market, this time activist investor invested into the company directly: Papa John’s issued to Starboard a convertible preferred stock in the amount of $200 million with an option to invest additional $50 million. The restaurant chain plans to use the proceeds of the investment to repay debt and also invest capital to further advance its business. Few activist investors loaded up on shares of Jack in the Box: Blue Harbour Group disclosed a 6.8% stake in November of 2018. Jana Partners decreased, but remains with a stake of 3.4% (as of January…
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Steve Eisman Sees Fintech As A Major Risk To Banks

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Steve Eisman, senior portfolio manager at Eisman Group Neuberger Berman, discusses his short of Zillow Group Inc. and the impact of fintech on the financial industry. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Steve Eisman financial services company

Image source: YouTube Video Screenshot


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Eisman Sees Delayed Brexit Stopping Companies From Investing in U.K.

Steve Eisman discusses investing in European banks and the fallout for business investment with a Brexit delay. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Transcript

Zillow is bounds [inaudible] very visible and Zillow. This is the real estate shop and you’re saying will be set up for price declines or bring up the chart if you would. The idea of Zillow really being a rather substantial success 2015 18 what did you see quarters ago and Zillow that allowed you to institute that short them.

So one of the I think most important trends in the market has been that the market has rewarded companies that generate a lot of free cash flow with very little CapEx and the sector that does that the most is tech and that’s probably why tech has gone up the most of any sector in the economy. So Zillow last year announced that they were migrating away from their Internet platform business that has sold them to do that but they’re going to take their free cash flow and invest it in generating mortgages and buying homes and flipping them and when they reported in January they tripled down on that business model last year. During the beginning of the year people had models of over 300 million dollars in EBITDA for Zillow and 2019. The range of estimate now is zero to 75 because the company is taking all its cash flow and putting into its flipping home business.

………….

I don’t quite look at it that way. I think if you if you talk to the very large banks …..

The post Steve Eisman Sees Fintech As A Major Risk To Banks appeared first on ValueWalk.

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“Charlie Munger called me after reading a copy of this book and was adamant I get it made into a movie”

By Elliot Trexler. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Interview with Jacob L. Taylor, author of The Rebel Allocator.

Charlie Munger called me after reading a copy of this book and was adamant I get it made into a movie,” Jacob L. Taylor is the author of The Rebel Allocator and CEO of Farnam Street Investments.

Rebel Allocator

Who among us claims to be “A conventional investor with an inability to think differently?” Yet, the vast majority of investment results are undifferentiated, and these are the result of undifferentiated thinking. So, do you dare to be the Rebel Allocator who generates differentiated results?


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

In an entertaining and educational fashion, The Rebel Allocator uses a fictional plot to teach us of the important principles of both life and capital allocation. Whether you’re an investor or capital allocator, I highly recommend reading The Rebel Allocator, there are lessons throughout the book we can all learn from.

How would you describe the book, is it fictional, educational, business? And why did you pick this style?

The style of the book is unique.  It’s a fictional story but has very real business lessons to be learned.  The book reads like the diary of a recent college graduate who’s struggling to find his way in the world.  There are sections of internal dialogue that are sometimes funny and sometimes heavy.  By the end of the book, I hope you were entertained and that I surreptitiously taught you a few important business lessons without causing too much headache.

What prompted you to write the book?

Being a professional investor, I’ve spent a lot of time studying what makes for a good business.  I discovered that outstanding capital allocation (like, what a business spends its money on, from paperclips to share buybacks) is of paramount importance.  Yet I continuously see capital being misallocated by very smart people which cost shareholders, employees, and management dearly.  Really, it hurts all of us by wasting natural resources.  Many have observed the problem, including Warren Buffett, but no one seemed to be working particularly hard to fix it.  I thought if I could teach some of the core principles, I might make my little dent in the universe.

How much of the book is
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Tilson: I Am Not Obsessed With Tesla, I Consider Myself A Moderate

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing how Tesla could blow sky high and there are many other investors who are far more obsessed with Tesla.

Whitney Tilson Obsessed With Tesla

I’ve been writing a lot about Tesla because it’s both highly entertaining and highly educational. It rivals Valeant as the single best case study I’ve ever encountered, as it covers so many aspects of business and investing: technology/innovation, finance, accounting, management, marketing, regulation, etc.


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc


1) “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

Folks, my “spidey sense” is tingling. I don’t think it’s yet likely (i.e., greater than 50%), but the odds that Tesla blows sky-high – perhaps soon – are rising rapidly. It could have one of those days in which the stock falls 30%-60% like Stamps.com (STMP) last month or Valeant – now Bausch Health Companies (BHC) – in late 2015.

If this happens, it would likely be due to the SEC forcing Musk out – he’s certainly doing everything he can to poke the bear – combined with an announcement by the company or the SEC that it’s investigating possible fraud.

2) Lest you think I’m singularly obsessed with Tesla, I actually consider myself a moderate. There are many others who are far more obsessed – like Harris Kupperman (aka Kuppy), who regularly writes about Tesla on his blog, Adventures in Capitalism (in last Thursday’s email, I linked to two of his recent posts: End Of The Road… and Can’t Spell Felon Without ELON).

In his latest post, Ask Kuppy, he answers many of his readers’ questions, including how he’s using put spreads to manifest his bearish view on the stock. I particularly enjoyed his response to this question:

Why do you think so many smart people (ie. Chanos, Einhorn, You) are so obsessed with Tesla? There’s thousands on message boards talking about this as a fraud and those people clearly put most of their waking time into following this including staking out delivery centers for days at a time. Seems
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Whitney Tilson “My message to Tesla bulls today is the same as the one I gave to LL shareholders: don’t come crying to me after you lose your shirts, because I warned you!”

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing his obsessions with LL and Tesla, SEC Charges Lumber Liquidators With Fraud; Tesla Bears and Bulls Duke It Out; Tesla delivery miss.

SEC Charges Lumber Liquidators With Fraud

1) Breaking news: Lumber Liquidators’ stock was halted this morning pending the release of this information an short while ago: SEC Charges Lumber Liquidators With Fraud. Excerpt:


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. for making fraudulent misstatements to investors. The charges stem from Lumber Liquidators’ false public statements in response to media allegations that the company was selling laminate flooring that contained levels of formaldehyde exceeding regulatory standards. Lumber Liquidators agreed to pay more than $6 million to settle the SEC action.

The SEC’s order finds that in early 2015, Lumber Liquidators, a discount retailer of hardwood flooring, made public statements in response to a “60 Minutes” news program episode that showed undercover video of Lumber Liquidators’ suppliers stating that they provided the company with products that did not comply with regulatory requirements. In its response, Lumber Liquidators fraudulently informed investors that third-party test results of its flooring products proved compliance with formaldehyde emissions standards and that it had discontinued sourcing materials from suppliers that were unable to meet these standards. In reality, Lumber Liquidators knew that its largest Chinese supplier had failed third-party formaldehyde emissions testing and was unable to produce documentation showing regulatory compliance. The SEC’s order further finds that despite having evidence confirming that the individuals in the “60 Minutes” undercover video were factory employees of its suppliers, Lumber Liquidators falsely stated that its suppliers were not depicted in the video.

…the combined total amount of criminal and regulatory penalties paid by Lumber Liquidators will be $33 million.

This is the final chapter – and total vindication – of the story that I uncovered and first pitched at the Robin Hood Investors Conference on November 22, 2013, the day the stock peaked at $115 (see my slides here; I also showed two minutes of clips from this video: Liquidating the Forests).

I later brought the story to 60 Minutes, which aired a…
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Elliott Urges Hyundai Mobis Shareholders To To Back Its Proposals

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management sent presentations to Hyundai Motor and Hyundai Mobis shareholders last week, urging investors to back its proposals, including dividends and a board shakeup. In its presentation to Hyundai Mobis shareholders, the activist also urged investors to vote in favor of the expansion of the board from nine to 11 members, the creation of a compensation and governance committee, and the appointment of Robert Kruse and Rudolph von Meister to the board and the new committee at the March 22 meeting.

Hyundai Mobis Shareholders

Mobis officially rejected the proposals later in the week and proposed its own nominees with international experience, tapping Karl Thomas Neumann, former executive at Continental and Volkswagen, and Brian Jones, co-president of family investment officer Archegos Capital Management.


Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Elliott acknowledged the revised strategy that also includes a 2.6 trillion Korean won ($2.3 billion) three-year shareholder return scheme, but said the proposed dividend payment was not high enough and the steps needed to be bolder.

Elliott was even less impressed with Hyundai Motor and proposed dividend payments totalling 4.5 trillion South Korean won, more than four times the company’s proposed total of 615 billion South Korean won, the creation of a compensation and governance committee, and the nomination of John Liu, Randall MacEwan, and Margaret Billson to the board and the new committee. Elliott also urged shareholders to vote against the nomination of Chi Won Yoon, Eugene Ohr, and Sang Seung Lee to the board.

What We’ll Be Watching For This Week

  • How will the meeting of Barclays CEO Jes Staley and Sherborne Investors’ Ed Bramson go in light of their upcoming proxy fight?
  • Will BBX Capital respond to Ridgedale Partners’ third letter blasting the company’s plan to acquire and privatize Bluegreen?
  • Will German drugmaker Bayer respond to Elliott Management’s calls to split the company in two?

Activist Shorts Update

Less than two weeks after Kraft Heinz shares plummeted, Prescience Point published a third short report against peer Kellogg. Last week, the short seller claimed that shareholders should be “terrified” by Kraft Heinz’s recent crash and reiterated its belief that the company will have to cut its dividend and miss its full-year 2019 guidance. Prescience said Kellogg will…
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Phil's Favorites

You're a Liar

 

You’re a Liar

Courtesy of 

Brendan Mullooly asked a bunch of people the following question:

What do you consider to be your biggest behavioral bias (as it pertains to investing or personal finance) and how do you work to control it?

My answer:

Hindsight bias was my biggest hurdle to overcome.

Hindsight bias makes one part of our brain lie to another part without even realizing it. The way I conquered my internal liar was to write down all of my trades and why I did them. Once every few weeks I would read what I wrote in order to check myself. If I knew Amazon was going higher, why di...



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Zero Hedge

China Is Spending Billions To Dethrone The U.S. In Race For The World's Fastest Supercomputer

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

China is currently in the midst of a multi-billion dollar investment cycle to upgrade its supercomputer infrastructure in a bid to pass the United States for fastest supercomputer in the world after the United States regained the title for fastest supercomputer in 2018, ending a five-year reign of Chinese dominance.

As SCMP notes, China had been first on the global Top 500 list of supercomputers sinc...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Germany Breakout Bullish For Stocks In The States!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

An important message to stocks in the states will come from Germany in the next few weeks!

This chart looks at the DAX index from Germany over the past 10-years. For the majority of the past 6-years, the DAX has remained inside of rising channel (1). The 2018 decline saw the DAX hit support where a 1-year counter-trend rally started.

Over the past year, the DAX has created a new falling channel (2). It is now testing the top of this falling channel and the lows of last February at (3).

For most of last year, the DAX created a bearish divergence with the...



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ValueWalk

Pension Flows Add 5 More Years To Credit Boom/Bust Cycle

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The pension crisis has been capturing headlines for years, but there’s another layer to the pension issue that’s starting to draw attention to itself. Public pension funds have shown an increasing appetite for credit and related holdings, the latest round of pension flows demonstrates that this trend continues One analyst believes pensions are largely to blame for the extremes of the boom/ bust cycles we’ve seen over the last year or so. He now suggests that the equity bull market could last another five years—thanks to the extremes driven by pension funds.

...

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Insider Scoop

Needham: Facebook No Longer A Buy Amid A 'Negative Network Effect'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The bullish case for Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB)'s stock has come to an end, according to Needham.

The Analyst

Needham's Laura Martin downgraded Facebook from Buy to Hold with no price target.

The Thesis

Needham's multi-year bullish stance on Facebook's stock can no longer be justified for three key reasons, Martin said in a research report. These include:

  1. A negative potent...


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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Chart School

Wyckoff Price Thrust Measure

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Richard Wyckoff said in his last days as an educator,'follow the waves'. And an important measure of those waves is the 'thrust'. The thrust of price into new ground, considering price and volume support or lack of it. The price wave thrust is clear visual presentation of the composite man demand or supply characteristics: strong, mild, weak or confused. 

readtheticker.com favored trend tool named RTTTrendStatus sister indicator RTTTrendThrust shows off Wykcoff measure of price thrust. RTTTrendThrust can be used to assist mechanical trading systems...

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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>