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Monday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 1 – Damage Assessment

The virus rages on.

US infections have jumped from 85,996 on Friday, when we had just passed China, to 143,055 as of 6:11 this morning and that's up 66% in two days.  Globally, there are 735,650 infections with 34,686 deaths and 154,673 recoveries so, to date, 18.3% of the outcomes are – DEATH!!!  No, I don't think it's funny – I want to emphasize that so people, HOPEFULLY, will stop risking their lives to go on a beer run or whatever other silly thing you do that you don't have to do – this is serious people and it remains serious.

On the other hand, as I have pointed out before, 7,708 people die every day in America from all sorts of things but mainly cancer or heart conditions so 2,500 dead (so far) in the US is just another manic Monday morning as far as it's effect on the economy.  What matters is how soon we can get things under control as they are currently still clearly OUT of control as our hospitals are being overwhelmed (leading to more deaths) and supplies are running short.

Trump is right, this is like a war but it's a war we are clearly losing despite Trump telling us:

  • Jan 22nd - “We have it totally under control. … It’s going to be just fine
  • Jan 30th – "We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.” 
  • Feb 24th – "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock market starting to look very good to me."
  • Feb 26th - “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."
  • Feb 28th - “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
  • March 2nd - "We had a great meeting today with a lot of the great companies and they're going to have vaccines, I think relatively soon.”
  • March 6th - “Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. They’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful.”
  • March 9th - “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on.”
  • March 17th - "I've always known this is a real — this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."

Coronavirus in US: More than 1,000 people dead, daily cases ...

I'm sorry if it seems I am "picking" on the President or if I somehow don't worship him appropriately enough for my Conservative readers but our job as investors is to be objective and make good investing decisions and to do that we need good information and we need to filter out bad information – like the kind we get from our President and his team of clowns and sycophants.  

Cartoon: Trump, Tropes, And TrotsWhile I am angry that this level of incompetence and deciept is a danger to America and its people, I am also concerned about the danger to our portfolios when the Government lies to us and gives us bad information and, of course, our forward-looking projections have to take into account how well we feel the Government is equipped to handled this situation, whether or not they have a solid plan, etc.  – the same as we do when we are evaluating Corporations we are investing in.

The time to contain the virus while there were only 15 patients in the US has long passed and here we are closing our March and still no masks, gloves and test kits to contain the virus or ventilators to take care of people who are infected and need hospitalization (about 20% of those infected and half of those die – even with the best of care).  Clearly, we are not delivering either the best of care or the best of containment.  Based on the current known spread of the virus, as I predicted on Friday:

It is 24 hours later and the US has gone from 69,000 to 85,000 cases in the past 24 hours.  There will be well over 100,000 cases on Monday and 200,000 by the end of next week and, if we are still not getting things together and responding to desperate needs for protective gear in the hospitals and SERIOUS protocols to halt the spread of the virus, the only thing we'll have by Easter (4/12) is 500,000 cases of the virus – almost 10 times what we have on this curent(ish) map.

So far, I seem to have underestimated as we're up to 143,055 cases this morning but hopefully that's partly due to the fact that we are rolling out testing and simply confirming cases (China had a huge uptick in confirmed cases close to the end of the cycle as they implemented more testing).  We'll know more as the week progresses but the longer it takes our Government to get it's act together, the more likely we end April way over 1M cases and that would lead to 3M in May but I don't think we get that far as the Governors are using their powers to fix things locally - even when Trump fails them Federally.

Let's say then that we top our at about 2M cases, that would put at least 400,000 people in the hospital and the US only has 300,000 total hospital beds that are generally 68% occupied at any given time, leaving just 100,000 available beds and not even half as many respirators.  

That means, very simply, that a lot of people are going to die – probably 200,000 and, though it's still not going to have much effect on the economy – keeping that number at 200,000 and not 2M requires us to shut down the economy probably well into May.  

Still, while this will obviously cause a Recession (two consecutive quarters of economic contraction), IF we mange to keep people and businesses from going into bankruptcy then, unlike normal recessions, we can sound the "all clear" siren on May 15th and everyone can go back to work and back to the malls and the economy would instantly go back to normal.  The only thing preventing that happy outcome would be Government incompetence and, unfortunately, THAT is the main problem we are dealing with at the moment.

The US GDP is $19Tn so close to $5Tn per quarter and let's say we knock of 1/3 of that for 2 quarters.  That's $1.5Tn x 2 = $3Tn.  While expensive, that is fixable but it all comes down to how our Government distributes the money.  Will it really go to the people and businesses that are impacted by the virus or will it go to maintain the outrageous incomes of the Top 1% – so they can add to their money pile – even while the rest of the World suffers?  

 - Dilbert by Scott Adams

Fortunately, it's an election year so hopefully our Government will chose to do the right thing – if only to save their own asses on November 3rd (assuming we haven an election, of course).  Based on those assumptions and based on the $2Tn already authorized by Congress – I think we do get past this and on the way to normal by July so, taking that into account – I think the sell-off we have so far is overdone as these factors are not likely to have a lasting impact on most companies' ability to make profits going forward.

 - Dilbert by Scott Adams

Unfortunately, the market was previously trading at inflated prices that assumed things were great and were only going to get greater and that is simply no longer the case so we have to first look at every one of our holdings as earnings comes out and decide if each stock can make it through 2 dead quarters (taking into account the aid they recieve as well) and then thinking about how well they can get back to normal – including what damage their supply chains and customer base has sustained.  It's a lot of work, but hopefully it will be covered in Q1 Earnings Reports – which start to come out very soon.

So, to get the ball rolling, let's analyze a few stocks to see if they are worth saving.  We can start with our Future is Now Portfolio as it's only got 3 stocks in it so let's review them all.  Overall, the portfolio is flat for the year after we doubled down on Beyond Meats (BYND) and Sunpower (SPWR) back in our March 20th Portfolio Review:

  • Total (TOT) – We just added them two weeks ago as we like the fact that TOT is rapidly diversifying into alt energy.  Stll, they are a massive oil company with $176Bn in sales and $11.5Bn in profits last year but, even when oil was around $20 between 1996 and 2003, TOT's stock was still in the $30s so we jumped on them at $25, which is a $70Bn valuation and took a very conservative $20/27.50 spread that will pay $7,500 if they stay over $27.50. 
  • The spread is now net $6,200 so only $1,300 left to make and we'll probably try to take it off the table at $7,000 – so no good as a new trade but a nice $3,300 (89%) profit off our $3,700 entry already! 

  • Beyond (BYND) – This was always a forward-looking call as the company only did their IPO last year at $25 in May and they rocketed up to $239 in July and back to $71 in November  and as low as $48 in March, which caused us to pull the trigger on them (we had 5 original short puts which we rolled down to 10 of the new ones). 
  • BYND sold $297M worth of product last year, up from $88M the year before and Q4 was $98M so they are still growing fast and $66 is a $4Bn valuation and the company is running about break-even with $275M worth of cash in the bank and the cost of revenue + SG&A last quarter was $90M so, even if they can't cut it back – they still have the cash to cover it (without a bailout).  
  • I'd say they are on very solid ground so we're going to stick with them as our target is only $65 – where it is now.  If this trade works out, it's a $15,000 spread currently priced at net $1,525 so $13,475 (883%) upside potential if it holds $65 into Jan, 2022.  

  • Sunpower (SPWR) – A stock so nice, we bought it twice!  Installing solar power is something companies do to save money so I don't think those kinds of projects are likely to be cancelled due to a virus.  Also, a lot of stimulus money is flying around, which may lead to more orders down the road.   We couldn't pass up the chance to buy another position when SPWR was close to $5, which is an $850M valuation for a company running about break-even on $1.8Bn in sales. 
  • They are certainly going to take a hit but they do have $422M in cash and $358M in inventory and "only" $900M in debt so they are not in trouble and not likely to be if we are back to work by summer so we can stick with them.
  • The $5/10 spread pays $20,000 at $10 and is currently netting $240, so there is $19,760 (8,233%) upside potential and just 10 short puts means your worst case is owning 1,000 shares of SPWR at $8 ($8,000) plus the $240 if you lose that too – still not terrible!  
  • The $5/12 spread is our original spread with a more aggressive upside but let's say it pays the same $20,000 at $10 as we no longer have confidence in $12.  That's OK and the current net is a $1,780 credit as we are more aggressive on the puts (2,000 at $8 LESS the $1,780 credit is the worst case) so $21,780 upside potential at $10.  

So, as a new portfolio, I would not play TOT but the other 3 trades give you a net $15 credit to have the potential to make $55,015 over the next two years.  We have a total obligation to own up to 1,000 shares of BYND for $50 ($50,000) + 3,000 shares of SPWR at $8 ($24,000) so we're using up $74,000 of our $200,000 in buying power (ordinary margin).  

When we see the market improving and we get more comfortably, we can add another coupld of trades from our Watch List and that is how we evaluate our portfolios.  Tomorrow we'll tak a close look at how we repair our positions after a big drop and,, sadly, there are plenty of examples in this market!  

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. I was reading ( my time ) the weekend comments and your Phil, I sincerely hope that the U.S can lead a way to confront this theme, BDC made a good analysis  (as your before).

    My basic question about the strategy to confront this in the U.S is as an investor and knowing that nobody has a crystal ball how will develop this in the stock market,  are we in the bottom of the knife or we can expect more problems.?



  3. Avill,
    Reading through your question, and looking at the remarks the clown makes, I must confirm and support Phil’s statements along the way, the clown has still no FKN clue what is going on and I think half America, due to the Government does not know how serious this is. WW 2 is chicken fee in comparison. If they order not a complete lockdown, how will they ever stop the transplant of the virus? I do not expect stock will have much value in the future. What do you expect if no one in working? We need to move over to LaLa Land. Sorry to be so negative but the end of this you can only read in the stars.


  4. It will find end when the virus peaks out.


  5. On the brighter side Listening to comment of one of the German financial channel, as the DAX is up today, investors think the Virus is mostly already baked in and the market is looking to the future.
    But Kinkrystile how can this virus pike, if you do not have a complete lock down.
    Lufthansa has 95% of their planes on the ground, can you tell them when they will have passengers to fly again. The problem is one cannot see the end. Yes the end should will ? come when they have and antidote. Next year or from the clown mouth by Easter. Question which Easter did he mean?


  6. Phil// Question on SKT – Given the rate of default that is likely to follow this pandemic, won't that affect SKT and in essence their dividend?  Trying to understand your logic behind the buy recommendation.

    Thanks.


  7. yodi: Massive testing and contact tracing like South Korea is one way.  Lockdown is the other.  If we let it just burn out on its own, then it will be herd immunity (70% of the population is immune).  I don't believe its baked in because its a completely new phenomenon for everybody so no prior experience of this.  Don't know when or how its going to end for us.


  8. kinkistyle Yes that is just the point NO ONE know when it will end but we do have a clown who KNOWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  9. wti  20 buks   wow


  10. Good morning!

    My apologies as I have been writing for an hour and a half but then I lost power and it’s all gone. I will start from scratch and try to catch up.  


  11. GM Phil/  I missed the call for a roll on IBM 120140 bcs (in the MTP)  Should I leave the BCS as it is or roll the $120 to $110?  Thanks.


  12. its ok phil i have nothing to do for three months lol


  13. tommyt No problem you can go to Germany they looking for asparagus Pickers as they will be rotten in the fields very soon! Or here in Spain the oranges falling of the trees. I cannot even go out to pick them.


  14. Dividend portfolio still falling while market is rising.  Probable div cuts still not fully priced in?


  15. Knife/Advill – Boy I spent a long time on this one.  I'm going to summarize and you'll have to take my word that I ran all the numbers and did all the math:

    I think the most important chart is this one from the weekend:

    No photo description available.

    We have moved up to 420 since then but I think the tipping point is 2,000 (1/500) as I have been considering my exposure going across the street to get a poke bowl or going to the supermarket (where there are way too many people).  

    There are 350 units in my building so maybe 800 people and I doubt many people go 3 days without leaving their homes so let's say 200 people a day, easily.  To go to the store I touch my door inside (fine), then the door outside (200 people) and then the door to the poke place (200 different people) and then I stand in a store where 200 (same) people have stood (they should close or stop letting people inside) where I touch the Square machine to check out (same 200) and I touch the doorknob to leave (same 200) and then back to the building where 200 people like me have had similar contacts but figure some overlap as there aren't that many places to go in town (90% closed) so call it 20 x 200 = 4,000 different exposures on the outside doorknob and don't even get me started with the additional cross-pollination from delivery people.

    Keep in mind this is the drastically shorter version where I'm not showing the math or citing studies to back me up.

    Anyway, so I'd say that, very conservatively, leaving my door in an urban location puts me in touch with no less than 500 people but then we have to consider in what way is an apartment building any different than a cruise ship?  Also, there are places way more populated than Delray Beach, Florida:

    West Hollywood is the 17th Most Densely Populated City in the US ...

    I used to live in Guttenberg, my building had 11,000 people in it – we had our own shopping mall in the basement with a tri-plex movie theater (we all used to go watch movies in our jammies)!   The whole town was our building, 3 other big ones and 5 streets.  

    So I think 1/500 is a tipping point past which you are going to almost certainly get to a fully infected population without drastic lockdowns so we'll keep an eye on the top countries on the chart but especially NYC, with about 40,000 cases now x 500 is 20M metro area people – so they are right about there!  

    I don't think things will get that bad as the Governors do have a lot of control and they will do things even if Trump won't and I'm sure there are going to be GOP Senators who fear their constituents more than Trump so I think we get to 500,000 (next week) with 50,000 dead but I think by 1M (easter) and 100,000 dead that even Trump's base will finally wake up and revolt.

    So by the end of May we should be peaked out at worst and we'll remain about 2 months behind China in the recovery (which is still shakey now) so by June/July things should begin to normalize.  

    The economic damage is finite so then it's up to the Government keeping people and businesses from going BK so we can quickly get back to work when the all clear sounds.

    Big Chart – We're hitting the strong bounce lines and now we need take back the Must Hold levels.


  16. With or without those 'people' Florida will soon be in a world of hurt….


  17. Great state by state COVID-19 data link posted over the weekend by Phil.

    Interesting COVID-19 data compiled in WA State. 6.66% of deaths under 60 out of 1,670 total forecasted deaths = 111 deaths. Very sad for the unlucky that get it, but total destruction of the economy? Not going to happen.

    Advill – Push/pull on (1) versus (2), from the weekend reading, I'm starting to think (2) wins out (helicopter money over non-employment). Some reading I did over the weekend looked at S&P P/E at the peak (22), now at 17, and down cycles usually see 12. So this is 1830 on the S&P. Most analysts seem to think we'll retest the lows but less were forecasting going lower from there. However, if earnings go way down the P/E could temporarily go much lower and this was not forecasted which is a bit of a head scratcher for me, as I think the earnings could go -30% or more for at least 2 quarters.


  18. Florida / 1020 – DeSantis will not look so good in 6 months I think!


  19. deSantis reminds me of our vice president's good fortune when falling out of a tree….


  20. In other words, why the f*ck are either one of them in the position they are?


  21. Phil – happy birthday!

    Recovery losing steam and VIX is still elevated. Bounce was on decreasing volume so be careful!

    Italy peaking. I'm always way to early on stuff, but there's potential optimism here as the world is peaking on new infections which is the first (of many) steps to returning to normalcy.


  22. yodi   I hear you im not leaving my house till this blows over


  23. 2020 Election (if we have one): trump probably won't win MI or PA which drops him to 270 EV's and I don't see him wining any states he previously lost. It's still enough to win by 1 vote. But if Maine's 2nd district turns blue then it's a 269-269 tie (which is fascinating what happens then but it tips GOP currently). If Trump loses anything else it's over, especially Florida. Gamblers still have him 50/50 to win despite only a 32% chance of winning the popular vote.


  24. Baked in/Yodi – I agree, the bad news is taken into account for the most part and, as long as the Governments don't screw up their response too badly – there is an end in site.  

    SKT/Rookie – I think they are diverse enough to absorb the issue and that many of their customers will get loans or be bailed out so that makes them a bargain if the outcome isn't as bad as you fear.  I don't really know how many ways I can say the same thing.  I'm not trying to convince you – DON'T invest if you have doubts.  I think the fears are overblown, so I suggest them as a cheap REIT.  

    Submitted on 2020/03/17 at 11:21 am

    SKT/Rookie – I've been saying it's a good time since $16 so $6 seems pretty good to me!

    Image result for pretty pretty good animated gif

    Tanger Outlets touts 'strong demand' for planned Antioch mall

    First look: Next project at billion-dollar Century Farms development has begun

    Edited Transcript of SKT earnings conference call or presentation 27-Jan-20 1:30pm GMT

    I can't find a reason not to own them.  0% rates are great when you are a borrower.   Worst-case is a lot of their retailers fold but the way they distribute the loads, they should be able to re-fill the slots without too much damage.  

    Looking solely at these results, you might think everything is great for Tanger, but that would be where you're wrong. As part of the retail space crumble, management has done well to ensure that the firm's exposure was limited. But any firm inexorably tied to the retail market can only maintain that stability until things worsen to a certain point. It is possible that, at least temporarily, that limit for Tanger is coming this year.

    According to management, 2020 is not going to be a fine year for the business. Management is already forecasting for NOI (net operating income) at the REIT to tank by between 6.75% and 8.25% compared to what was reported in 2019. Earnings per share for the year should be between $0.65 and $0.73 for a mid-point of $0.69, while FFO (funds from operations) will range between $1.96 and $2.04 per share or $2 at the mid-point.

    To put this in perspective, 2019 was a far better year. The company managed to generate FFO of $221.74 million and AFFO (adjusted funds from operations) of $226.08 million. These translate into per-share amounts of $2.27 and $2.31, respectively. If all goes according to plan here, this will translate to a year-over-year decline of 11.9%. Based on the data provided, the company has accepted that it will see 303,000 square feet of closures during the year beyond any doubt. These are due to tenant bankruptcies and restructuring activities. The company is also bracing for a further 322,000 to 372,000 square feet of potential additional closures. This all should result in an average occupancy rate for the year of between 92% and 93%. It is uncertain what this will translate to for the end of 2020, but given the firm's current occupancy rate of 97%, it stands to reason that the picture will worsen throughout the year. If so, it might not be unreasonable to expect a rate at or below 90% by the end of the year.

    This isn't to say that recent events don't deserve attention. The recent major economic slowdown caused by the spread of COVID-19 is worrisome. Ultimately, the impact this will have on Tanger could range from negligible to severe. If we deal with this slowdown for a quarter or less, the long-term impact on the business might be insignificant. But the longer this affects the firm, the more likely it will be that additional bankruptcies in the space will harm the firm. Even if the distribution is cut some, it could still be an attractive long-term play, but whether or not now is the time to buy is dependent on your perception of how long COVID-19 will remain a major issue.

    Oil/Tommy – I'm playing the bounces off the $20 line until it breaks but still way behind as I had 4 from $22.50 and average now is still over $21 but w've gotten several 0.50 bounces this morning.

    IBM/Rookie – The $120/10 bull call spread?  We rolled down to the $110s, which are now $15.50 and the $120s are $11.50 so would I pay $4 to pick up $10 in strike?  Yes.  $4.50?  Yes.   $5?  Yes.  $5.50?  No.  

    3 months/Tommy – I know I just had the dullest birthday ever!  

    Rotting fruit/Yodi – The next problem will be bugs.  Or the unchecked plague of locust coming up from Africa.

    Dividend/Tangled – The assumptions are everyone is cutting as the bailouts come with strings against paying dividends.  Could be a long, slow road to recovery.

    Ship/1020 – They left on March 7th but people were sick by the 14th so they haven't been to a port since.  About 200 people out of 1,400 have the virus so far.  I can't believe they were even doing trips that late!  At what point are people responsible for their own actions?  You know what, RCL and CCL have private islands – the ships should go there and quarantine until everyone can be tested and released.  Better than dumping 200 people into over-crowded Ft Lauderdale hospitals.

    Earnings/BDC – It's not earnings as they will only take a partial hit in March for the most part.  It's guidance that's going to matter.  Q2 is a write-off but then the devil is in the stimulus details for most firms.  

    /RB popping without oil.


  25. Ships / Phil – And there seems to be a lot of push to ban cruise companies from getting bailed out! No taxes, no bailout!


  26. Speaking of bailout, this is really completely insane:

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/28/21197995/coronavirus-stimulus-trump-inspector-general-wont-comply

    President Donald Trump said on Friday that he will not adhere to a portion of the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill that would authorize an inspector general to oversee how $500 billion in business loans will be spent.

    So basically, back to slush fund! Why even bother with Congress. This administration simply refuses any oversight whatsoever especially concerning how money is spent. Still no reports on how much we spend to send Secret Service people to Mar-a-Lago each week and now a $500B cookie jar for Trump and his family! People should revolt…


  27. Ships/StJ – I have to agree with that one.  That would be like us running over to Mexico to see who needs bailing out.  These cruise companies set themselves up outside of the US to avoid paying taxes so what is the justification for baling them out.  Perhaps if they agree to re-constitute in the US and pay at least 10% of sales in taxes for the next 20 years…  RCL takes in $11Bn a year and makes $1.9Bn in profit and paid $0 taxes!   CCL had $21Bn in revenues, $3Bn in income and paid $71M in taxes (suckers!) last year.  I mean, WTF?  Should we bail our robbers who haven't been able to knock off houses due to the virus?  You have to draw the line somewhere….  

    Revolt/StJ – We can't revolt, we can't leave our homes and Trump just got a blank checkbook with $500Bn in it.  Crime of the Century!  


  28. Cruises / Phil – They will get some of the $500B from the slush fund I am sure with promises to add some Trump stuff on the ships or name one of then the HMS Donald Trump!


  29. yothi -I would wait for the moon to come out and gather up the oranges. Nothing better than fresh orange juice and all the Vitamin C! Besides the smell of rotting fruit is not pleasant. Geez talk about control.  . Phil I wear gloves when I have to shop. Takes care a lot of worry and you can wash them at stops if you need to. I found a box @ Lowes in Fla. Still 10 days until my quarantine is over from flight. Sunny today so happy even with snow and ice all over.


  30. happy dull birthday Phil… ;)


  31. Ship/Phil  We're all a bit overwhelmed – Those islands are a good idea…



  32. pirateinvestor You going out by day or by night you might even land up in jale not a good place to lend up for a couple of oranges. Futher more the orange juce machine is still working in the super you enter only with mask and gloves only one person per car, with proper distance to each other.

    It looks to me that the virus in Spain has peeked. 


  33. Spain does look to be peaking.

    StJ / Slush fund — here's a good write up on it.


  34. might be worth entering HYG puts here. Just in the tiny probability the World isn't Completely Fixed just yet.




  35. 10 days/Pirate – There will be a general quarantine by then.  I'm not paranoid enough to wear gloves though I do wash my hands as soon as I'm back in the house though, as I said, there's a certain density of cases at which I will become much more careful as your odds of getting infected on a trip outside go from 1/1,000 to 1/20.  I'd say it's an inverse square relationship so 400/M cases now is 1/1,000 while 800 will be 1/100 and 1,000/M (1/1,000 infected) can raise your chance of getting a virus from any given trip outside (if you touch things) to 1/10 and, as I said above, 2,000/M (1/50) means you may as well lick the subway pole as you are almost certainly going to get the virus at some point.  

    For actual examples, look how these cruise ships go from 1/1,000 to 1/10 over 2 weeks.  That's what you'll see in any crowded city that doesn't lock down.

    And we KNEW this in early February, when that first disaster ship happened so it is completely ridiculous to hear Trump say how no one could have known.  That was two months ago!  Cruises, airports should have been shut down right then as it was clearly a very contagious virus and it was clearly infecting people in the US.  And remember the pictures of those cruise passengers being offloaded to Taxis???  We knew then it was insane!

    DFA: Bring home Pinoys from virus-hit ship | Global News

    Red Bull/1020 – Wow, way to murder a brand.  



  36. yodi-For sure.Thankfully it has not got to that here yet. Phil-many happier returns on your birthday. I think everyone who misses a birthday celebration should have a giant party maybe in Washington DC in conjunction with the revolt? At this point we can be overjoyed to celebrate another year which is never quaranteed to begin with. ON an upbeat note I heard today that the food bank is open so there is no food waste here. All kinds of precautions of course but still helping those who are the neediest. Now I just have to round up my face masks!


  37. So Putin and Trump have a phone call…   will oil start to pump a little slower and very quietly some sanctions on Russia go away?


  38. WTF? – The only stock I have that's up today is FTR. My hedges are down and my longs are down. Looks like I'm not holding the privileged few.


  39. If you are going to venture out into the world, I suggest bringing a small bottle of hand sanitizer, and using it immediately after you touch anything. This combined with keeping your distance from others, should reduce your risk dramatically.


  40. Phil;

    What original way to analyze it, congratulations ( for the analysis and your birthday), Imperial College published an interesting paper today, our numbers are the highest in Europe!

     

    BDC, great comment too, as usual.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf


  41. Palotay I carry wipes sanitzers but I have about 3 weeks until my shift so will use everything. One I read about was shoes how they can pick up everything from floors everywhere. So they get LYSOL though outside shoes are taken off virus can still live for days on them so…the beat goes on.


  42. Time to do some shorting? End of quarter window dressing is almost complete…


  43. Birthday/Pirate – At least it's one I won't forget.  Concert went well last night, raised a lot of money.  

    FTR/Dave – Still not BK!

    Sanitizer/Palotay – I have it for my car but not when I walk around.

    Thanks Advill.

    Shorting/Mr M – Hopefully that's not all this is.

    /NG flying back to $1.70.

    Still using the Nas for a hedge as it's hardly down by comparison:

    Nice quick turnaround on /NKD

    Sugar getting towards a good play at $10 (long).


  44. Phil/SKT

    Sold 5 2022 strike 8 Puts for 4.50.

    regards


  45. Thoughts on repairing IMAX?? I am short 4 June $20 puts and 4 June $20 calls. I rolled long calls down to 8 Sept $15/19 BCS a while ago. Suggestions how to salvage something from the ashes?


  46. How to safely take money from your retirement account now


  47. The World Pushes Back Against E-Cigarettes and Juul


  48. SKT/Pat – You may be disappointed if you don't get assigned at net $3.50.

    IMAX/Millard – Back at $8.50.  The June $20 puts are $11.50 ($4,200).  I wouldn't try to win it all back, just sell maybe 10 of the Dec $10 puts for $4 ($4,000) and see how that goes.  As to the June calls, I'd certainly go to Dec, not Sept as it's not very likely they recover 100% in less than 6 months.  I'd rather have the Dec $7 ($4.20)/$10 ($2.45) bull call spreads for $1.75 than the $15/19 spread for 0.50.  


  49. I think there is a serious possibility of a second wave of the virus hitting sometime later in the year (before a vaccine can be rolled out) that will prolong the economic shutdown.  It happened with the Spanish Flu, and I increasingly feel like it will happen with the coronavirus too.

    The lockdown policies are having an effect on stopping the spread of the virus, but once the policies get lifted, I really think it could start spreading again forcing another round of lockdowns in the autumn season.







  50. US stock futures up slightly following Monday’s gains