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TGI Thursday – Up 20% From the Lows, What Happens Next?

We're short.  

That's what happens next.  Our portfolios are long but very well-hedged and positioning ourselves pretty neutral going into the long weekend (markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday) so we are able to use just a couple of S&P 500 (/ES) Futures shorts to flip ourselves more bearish into the weekend.  

We discusses our reasons in detail in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, after which I reiterated to our Members in our Live Chat Room:

I find it hard to believe people won't sell into the weekend, 2,750 is a good short on /ES with tight stops above.

As expected, we hit our entry goal this morning and we're back to 2,735 as of 7:10 but I expect a lot more selling into the weekend as Congress has no concrete plan for more stimulus and Team Trump continues to look inept in their handling of the situation and the numbers (which we also went over yesterday in detail) paint a pretty disturbing picture as 1/500 people in the US will be infected by Monday and World Wide Deaths will cross over 100,000 and, a week from Monday, over 2M people World Wilde will be infected with less than 500,000 recovered so it's a LOT early to be declaring victory.

Victory in the US is not victory.  Team Trump doesn't get that.  They don't even get that victory in Red States isn't a victory if Blue States still have the virus – they have an imaginary wall that runs through everything.  The Trump Administration won't even allow masks to be exported to Canada – Canada! – it's like a state! 

Lies Liar GIF - Lies Liar SouthPark - Discover & Share GIFs

Ontario's Conservative Premier Doug Ford also expressed disappointment.

"It's like one of your family members (says), 'OK, you go starve and we'll go feast on the rest of the meal.' I'm just so disappointed right now," Ford said.  "We have a great relationship with the U.S. and they pull these shenanigans? Unacceptable."

China is helping out by sending Canada 8M masks so, while we are distracted, Trump is alienating our allies and sending them into China's open arms, further destablizing America's position in the World and tearing apart what it took 44 Presidents 224 years to build.  I wonder what he has planned for the next 4 years?  

So we are concerned that the data next week will be scary and also earnings season begins next week.  We'll take our /ES profits this morning at 2,700(ish) if it bounces (locking in $3,000 gains at least) as Jerome Powell is spreaking at 10am and that has a chance of boosting the markets (and he will likely announce more stimulus after the jobs numbers) a bit higher and Mary Daly (SF Fed) speaks at 1pm so clearly there's an attempt to talk up the markets but then we'll be shorting again into the close as I imagine there will be some profit-taking ahead of the long weekend:

As you can see, the S&P is sticking to our range and we're not expecting to get over the 10% line for the rest of the year and we should settle into the +/- 10% range around 2,850 once the virus is behind us but the upcoming earnings for Q1 will be a disaster that will then be ecliped by the horrific earnings of Q2 and THEN we can get more bullish – but that's August, not April!  

Image

We hit the ground running on Tuesday with JPM, WFC, INFY and JNJ and then it's Bank Day on Wednesday and the following week we're right in the thick of things so it's going to be an extra-exciting earnings season and it would be very foolish to bet too heavily one way or the other this early in the game.  

Stay safe and stay hedged!

Happy Easter/Passover, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Phil/economy

    good morning!

    Thanks for the morning post.

    The Econ's are happy with the liquidity. My question, can the economy be sustained when the lockdown is the cause of loss of velocity of money. Regardless of how much money is in the system. are earnings going to be up?

    So, I fail to see the market's 'party' mode that it's in for the past 2 weeks.

    is it still going by the old adage: don't fight the fed?


  3. Good morning! 

    Wow, glad we took the /ES money – big pop despite another 6M Unemployed.  10% of the workforce lost their jobs in the last 30 days – RALLY TIME!!!

    No re-shorting yet, gotta wait for Powell at 10.

    Sustained/Maya – You are using a narrative so I call shenanigans on you!  The velocity of money was lost 10 years ago and that hasn't seemed to bother anyone.  Consumer Retail is $6Tn so, if it went to zero for the whole year, we'd need $6Tn in stimulus but, if I usually make pumpkin pie for $10 using $3 worth of ingredients and $2 worth of labor and sell it to the store for $7 (40% profit) who sells it to the consumer for $10 and makes $1 (after costs) – how much bailout do I need?  

    You can give the consumer $10 but he'd only waste it on pie and the consumer is a disposable commodity to Conservatives.  All we need to replace our loss is the $2 the pie-maker usually makes and the $1 the grocery store usually makes as neither one is incurring variable costs to actually sell the pie, are they?  

    And, if the pie-maker is a small business person – F him too and we can just give $3 to the grocery store (assuming they are campaign contributors) and everyone (who counts) is happy!

    See – I "fixed" the economy already!  

    And, once again (as it seems to be very difficult for people to grasp) – $6,000,000,000,000 is a LOT of MONEY!!!

    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    That's how many Billions it is!


  4. Soon we will have 20M people more unemployed but markets don't care – these people don't have brokerage accounts! Maybe it's because, thanks to the Dems, and to the conservative's dismay who thought that making $50 more than when working was a crime, unemployed people might have enough money to make it through the next few months!


  5. down and down dx and vix go

    up go the futures to where we dont know


  6. 24,000 /YM, 8,300 /NQ, 2,780 /ES, 1,230 /RTY – that's AFTER this:

    • Initial Jobless Claims-200K to 6.606M vs. +5M consensus, 6.867M prior (revised from 6.6M).
    • The four-week moving average rises 1.6M to 4.3M.
    • Data is for the week ended April 4.

    Which was immediately followed by this:

    • The Fed adds new programs to assist households and employers and bolster the ability of state and local governments to deliver critical services during the coronavirus pandemic.
    • Actions include:
    1. Bolstering the effectiveness of the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) by supplying liquidity to participating financial institutions through term financing backed by PPP loans to small businesses;
    2. Ensure credit flows to small and mid-sized businesses with the purchase of up to $600B in loans through the Main Street Lending Program. The Department of the Treasury, using funding from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) will provide $75B in equity to the facility;
    3. Expanding the size and scope of the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF) as well as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). These three programs will now support up to $850B in credit backed by $85B in credit protection provided by the Treasury; and
    4. Establishing a Municipal Liquidity Facility that will offer up to $500B in lending to states and municipalities. The Treasury will provide $35B of credit protection to the Federal Reserve for the Municipal Liquidity Facility using funds appropriated by the CARES Act.
    • Update at 8:42 AM: The Main Street facility will offer four-year loans to companies employing up to 10K workers or with revenue of less than $2.5B. Principal and interest payments will be deferred for one year.
    • Eligible banks may originate new Main Street loans or use Main Street loans to boost the size of existing loans to businesses. Banks will retain a 5%, selling the remaining 95% to the Main Street facility, which will buy up to $600B of loans.

    If they are going to keep doing that, the Bulls can't lose!


  7. One thing we need to remember in the future months (now maybe years) is that there is a predictable market impact due to liquidity reduction when the Fed unwinds QE. I'll have to research the days, but they create liquidity crunches on predetermined calendar dates when they have to do QT. Of course if this ends up being a prolonged recession then that might be 5 or 10 years from now. 


  8. Good morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now available!

    Youtube:

    https://youtu.be/-4FqGZ7xbIw

    BitChute:

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/kjoijrLqxzuY/


    • AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) is down 3% premarket, inching down toward the $3/share mark, after a downgrade to Sell at MKM Partners, from Neutral.
    • It's cut its target to match the Street low of $1 (70% more downside).
    • Bankruptcy looks likely, the firm says, given AMC's cash position and what looks like a zero-revenue environment for some time.
    • It expects theaters will be closed into August – a time frame for which AMC's liquidity can't hold up. And even a pleaded-for bailout wouldn't be a savior, analyst Eric Handler says, because "the weight of its balance sheet will make for tough sledding" considering high leverage.
    • AMC has a Quant Rating of Very Bearish.
    • RCI Hospitality Holdings (NASDAQ:RICK) reports consolidated same-store sales declined 14.7% to $39.7M in Q2.
    • Total club and restaurant sales fell 9.8% to $39.8M.
    • Nightclubs sales -15.3% to $31M and same-store sales slipped 14.8%.
    • Bombshells restaurant sales rose 17% to $8.8M and same-store sales dropped 13.8%.
    • Total and same-store sales were up 11.8% and 5.3% through the first 10 weeks of 2Q20 until mid-March.
    • The company furloughed more than 1,900 employees and reduced pay of the ~100 remaining employees to 75% of previous levels with plans to drop to 50% through the end of May.
    • The company eliminated discretionary spending, obtained three-month payment deferrals from both of major lenders and deferral agreements with others and some of landlords in the small number of locations where subsidiaries pay rent and also filed for business interruption insurance claims.

    Tiziana Life Sciences PLC (NASDAQ:TLSA+68% on inhalable treatment for COVID-19.

    Transocean (NYSE:RIG+30%.

    Big Lots (NYSE:BIG+22% after shaking off bear call and raising funds through sale-leaseback deals.

    Apache (NYSE:APA+20%.

    New Residential Investment (NYSE:NRZ+13%.

    • General Electric (NYSE:GE) says its preliminary view of Q1 results indicates adjusted EPS will be "materially below" previous guidance of ~$0.10/share due to negative impacts of Covid-19.
    • The company expects industrial free cash flow to come in "near" prior guidance of negative $2B.
    • GE says adjusted EPS deteriorated more than FCF primarily because of non-cash and timing items in its aviation, renewable energy and GE Capital businesses.
    • GE also is withdrawing 2020 financial guidance because of uncertainty over the virus impact.
    • "With net proceeds of about $20B from the BioPharma transaction now in hand, we have more flexibility to de-risk and further strengthen our balance sheet," CEO Lawrence Culp says.
    • GE +3.3% pre-market.

    Sure, why not?  No guidance, no worries! 

    • Bank of America turns constructive on Nike (NYSE:NKE) with a price objective boost to $95 from $90.
    • The firm says it sees Nike's China Playbook as back on track after the 10-Q detailed that 95% of Nike owned and partner stores are now open with retail traffic increasing on a week over week basis as of early April.
    • The $95 PO from BofA is based on 31X to 32X the FY22 EPS of $3.00 given impressive momentum despite COVID-19 headwinds.
    • NKE +0.82% premarket to $86.00.
    • Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and collaboration partner BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTXannounce that clinical trials across the U.S. and Europe evaluating their COVID-19 vaccine candidates may start as early as the end of the month.
    • They can potentially supply "millions" of doses by year-end and "hundreds of millions" by the end of 2021.
    • BioNTech will contribute multiple mRNA vaccine candidates while Pfizer will contribute its global vaccine R&D, regulatory, manufacturing and distribution capabilities.
    • Under the terms of the partnership, Pfizer will pay BioNTech $185M upfront, including a $113M equity investment, and up to $563M in milestones. Development costs will be equally shared (Pfizer will pay all cost initially, then BioNTech will repay its half during commercialization).
    • PFE and BNTX are up 1% and 5%, respectively, premarket, both on modest volume.
    • Yelp's (NYSE:YELP) cost cuts will include workforce reductions affecting about 1,000 employees and furloughs affecting an additional 1,100 workers.
    • Yelp cites the coronavirus lockdowns, which took a chunk out of add revenue at the end of the March quarter.
    • The company will also reduce salaries and indefinitely suspend buybacks under its share repurchase program.
    • Yelp expects to incur $8-10M in costs related to the restructuring plan.
    • The company had $491M in cash and equivalents at the end of March and is exploring additional ways to improve liquidity.
    • Yelp shares are up 6.3% pre-market to $22.99.
    • The U.S. Senate tells its members not to use Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) due to security concerns, according to FT sources.
    • Senators were advised to find an alternative form of communication, but Zoom wasn't outright banned.
    • Zoom usage has skyrocketed with the coronavirus-related work from home shift, and the new fame has come with an increased focus on the company's security practices.
    • Recent media reports have included Zoom's inaccurate end-to-end encryption claims, sending user data to Facebook, routing traffic through China, and "zoombombing," which is when random people crash a meeting.
    • Zoom CEO Eric Yuan pledged to do better on security, and the company hired Facebook's former security head as an outside advisor.
    • ZM shares are down 2% pre-market to $115.50.
    • Previously: Zoom banned at Google (Apr. 08 2020)
    • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) won't launch the dual-screened Surface Neo ahead of the 2020 holiday season, according to CNBC sources.
    • The company's broader plans have changed around the evolving coronavirus pandemic.
    • Microsoft has paused work on Windows 10X, which is designed to operate apps across multiple screens, to make sure the OS works well on one screen first.
    • The Neo was first announced last October.
    • Surface devices accounted for about 5% of Microsoft's FY19 revenue.
    • Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) comes out in opposition to mandated oil production cuts by Texas energy regulators, joining Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) and other large oil companies in opposing the idea.
    • The free market is "the most efficient means of sorting out the extreme supply and demand imbalances we are now experiencing," the company says.
    • The Texas Railroad Commission, which has the authority to mandate production curbs in the state, will consider next week a proposal submitted by Parsley Energy (NYSE:PE) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) to require larger oil producers to cut output by 20% beginning May 1.
    • Separately, four people working at Exxon's Baytown, Tex., petrochemical complex have tested positive for Covid-19, although production at the 560K bbl/day refinery within the complex has not been affected, Reuters reports.
    • Exxon reportedly shut the refinery's 90K bbl/day gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracker 2 last month due to plunging demand brought on by people staying home to prevent the spread of the virus; it is the only unit shut at the refinery.
    • Dr. Anthony Fauci, an infectious diseases expert who regularly speaks at the White House coronavirus task force briefings, tells NBC he hopes that steps to normalization will be underway by summer.
    • Fauci, who is director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also said he thinks New York may be beginning to turn the corner and starting to see a flattening of the coronavirus curve.
    • The U.S. has ~432K confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 14,808 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center; New York state has 151K of those cases and 6,269 of those deaths.

    STEPS by SUMMER???  No way, I cannot take 3 more months of this!


  9. Feds are buying junk bonds, munis…and soon equities.  We ARE Japan.


  10. Buy GLD.  It's going to $1900 or more.


  11. Pharmboy/GLD,

    will not JNUG also jump with GLD?

    regards


  12. QT/Dawg – That's been the bear case for the last 10 years – hasn't worked yet (I don't count the virus sell-off as proof of QT).  

    While I am not a MMT advocate, you do have to consider that money is a completely artificial construct and the state can, in fact, print it at will and give it to whoever they want.  You think they have to tighten the supply to avoid runaway inflation and that would be true if money were, in fact, some free-range commodity that "got out" and made a big inflationary mess when it got too loose but consider that it's never out anywhere.  They aren't PRINTING $6Tn, they are just adding zeros to their own balance sheets and shoring up other balance sheets which means companies and consumers who WOULD HAVE needed to scramble for actual Dollars don't need to – because their balance sheets are fine. 

    So it's a null transaction and the Fed grows their balance sheet and the Government has a bit more debt they were never going to repay anyway.  Why should they do anything?  

    Here's the bond and Dollar reaction to another $2.3Tn (12% of our GDP):

    Where else are you going to put your money?  And now there's 12% more of it that needs to find a home – where are you going to put it?  Another way we soak up excess Dollars is our ever-expanding Billionaire Class.  We have single people walking around with $100Bn and we have 5 companies that are valued over $1Tn with more on the way.  Better hope none of those guys ever go to the bank and ask for CASH!!! – there would be none left for anyone else – THAT would be your QT!  

    Japan/Pharm – As with our virus growth, we are going to leave everyone else in the dust.  

    GLD/Pharm – I like GOLD (it's our Stock of the Year):


  13. Why does 'kitchen sink' come to mind?…..


  14. Long JNK? Following the Fed


    • JPMorgan lowers Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) to an Underweight rating from Neutral on its view that the share price doesn't reflect the recent surge of COVID-19 cases in Mexico.
    • The firm also expects downside risk to Mexico GDP in 2020 based on lagging policy responses and insufficient healthcare facilities in the nation.
    • "We expect KSU can maintain its recent operating efficiency gains but this risk will take time to unfold and is not reflected in expectations or valuation," warns analyst Brian Ossenbeck.
    • JP assigns a price target of $130 to KSU.
    • Kansas City Southern is inactive in the premarket session
    • Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) has priced an offering of $1B of its 4.100% senior notes due 2025 at a price equal to 99.982% of their face value, $750M of its 4.500% senior notes due 2027 at a price equal to 99.780% of their face value, and $1.5B of its 4.625% senior notes due 2030 at a price equal to 99.834% of their face value.
    • The Offering is expected to close on April 13, 2020.
    • Net proceeds estimated to be ~$3.23B will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of debt, including the repayment, at maturity or upon conversion prior thereto, of its 0.35% Convertible Senior Notes due June 2020 and its 0.90% Convertible Senior Notes due September 2021.
    • The company also priced a private offering of $750M of its 0.75% convertible unsecured senior notes due May 1, 2025 and interest will be payable semi-annually in arrears on May 1 and November 1 of each year, beginning on November 1, 2020.
    • Net proceeds from the private offering will be ~$735M.
    • The issuance and sale of the Convertible Notes to settle on April 14, 2020.
    • Previously: Booking Holdings offers convertible senior notes (April 8)
    • KeyBanc says spending data suggests that Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) U.S. iPhone sales fell 56% Y/Y in March due to the retail store closures, and online sales haven't been able to compensate.
    • Analyst John Vinh writes that blended ASPs dropped 20% Y/Y last month, which is a "significant" decline.
    • Vinh says the trend will be negative for Apple suppliers and only recommends buying Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO).
    • Other Apple suppliers include Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) and Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO).
    • Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS) announces plans to ramp up production of personal protective equipment for frontline healthcare workers across Canada.
    • Over the next two weeks, the Company will begin to reopen all of its eight Canadian facilities with as many as 900 employees working to support the efforts.
    • With new contracts in place, Canada Goose will produce at least 60K gowns per week, with plans to deliver up to 1.5M at cost. Any unintentional profits, potentially derived from efficiencies, will be donated to national COVID-19 relief funds.
    • Source: Press Release
    • The WSJ reports that Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has found a promising coronavirus treatment that works by blocking viral replication. It plans to start testing this summer.
    • Rheumatoid arthritis med Xeljanz (tofacitinib), a Janus kinase inhibitor, is another option. Testing in COVID-19 patients will start this week in Italy.
    • Also, it intends to publish research on whether one of its antibiotics benefits COVID-19 patients.
    • Clinical trials should launch this month evaluating a vaccine candidate that it is developing with Germany's BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX).
    • Cowen's Andrew Charles takes on the tricky task of modeling Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) sales coming out of the pandemic after hearing the company's update yesterday.
    • The FQ2 Americas same-store sales estimate goes to -3% from +2%, while Charles expects FQ3 Americas comparable sales to be -53% vs. -18% prior. "For 4Q, we lower our estimate from -4% to -5%. We assume all company-operated locations are open at the beginning of the quarter and are down 20% for the first month, and return to normalized 3% in August and September," he estimates.
    • Looking further ahead, Charles expects 2020 EPS of $1.63 and 2021 EPS of $3.23 out of SBUX. The consensus marks aren't really comparable anymore.
    • Cowen keeps a Market Perform rating on Starbucks with a price target of $65.
    • Shares of Starbucks are down 2.05% in premarket trading. While the FQ2 numbers were in line with what analysts expected considering the pandemic impact, the lack of clarity on store re-openings is a persistent headwind.
    • China's March passenger car sales fell 41% Y/Y in March to 1.08M units, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
    • The sharp drop wasn't surprising amid the efforts to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
    • Electric vehicle sales were 47.1K units during the month, including 10,160 units for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
    • CPCA expects overall April sales to be stronger than the March tally.
    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) says the restart of production in China is starting to gain traction.
    • Hope is returning to the Chinese market as business levels start to normalize with all 2K dealerships open, states VW China chief Stephan Wollenstein.
    • The German automaker reiterates a plan to add two new electric vehicle sites in China during the second half of the year with combined capacity of 600K vehicles annually and start local manufacturing of the Audi E-Tron SUV.
    • Shares of Volkswagen are up 2.05% in Frankfurt trading.

    • Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) CEO Hal Lawton said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the retailer has seen a sharp increase in pet food sales as consumers stock up on the staple.
    • The pet food hoarding phenomenon could also be a near-term sales driver for Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT), which is hoping to make long-term customers out of the online buyers.
    • Both companies have seen their share prices fare pretty well during the pandemic, with Tractor Supply up 8.88% and Freshpet 12.25% higher.
    • There was a more optimistic tone at the coronavirus briefing yesterday even after New York City reported its deadliest day so far. White House officials said they see "real evidence" that lockdowns and stay-at-home efforts are working in states like California and Washington to slow the pandemic.
    • White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx noted cities like New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago and Boston are still seeing a high percentage of positive tests, while Vice President Mike Pence said the short-term objective is to test as many Americans as possible.
    • Global COVID-19 cases now number over 1.5M, with over 430K reported in the U.S.
    • Previously: U.S. continues supply surge in battle against COVID-19: coronavirus briefing (April 8)
    • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech today that COVID-19 is having a serious impact on the Japanese economy. Kuroda pointed to declines in exports, output, demand from overseas tourists and private consumption.
    • The Bank of Japan is expected to make a rare projection later this month that the world's third-largest economy will fall in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic. The development would be the first time the BOJ has forecast a full-year contraction since 2014.
    • Some economists see Japan's GDP falling by more than 5% this year. The BOJ will post its new forecast at its next rate review on April 27-28.
    • Diageo (NYSE:DEO) says it will halt its buyback program due to the pandemic, but will go ahead with an interim dividend due to be paid this month.
    • "Widespread containment actions put in place by governments across the globe in March, including the closure of bars and restaurants, are having a significant impact on the performance of our business," notes the company.
    • In mainland China, Diageo said it's beginning to see a very slow return of on-trade consumption.
    • Diageo pulls its sales and profit guidance due to the uncertainty created by the pandemic.
    • Diageo press release
    • Things are pretty tense in the oil markets ahead of a virtual meeting of the alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC producers today at 4:00 p.m. Vienna time (10 a.m. ET). The spotlight will be on whether Russia, Saudi Arabia and non-participant U.S. will agree to cut crude production amid plunging prices and a lack of storage capacity.
    • "Stalemate is not an option for any of the parties involved," warns Nansen Saleri, CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact and Saudi Aramco's former head of reservoir management. Even an OPEC+ combined cut of 10M to 15M barrels per day of output won't match the estimated drop in Q2 demand of 16.4M barrels a day. Crude oil is seen swinging to as low as $20 per barrel or as high as $40 per barrel based on how the meeting goes.
    • In today's early action, WTI crude oil futures +5.5% to $26.47/bbl and Brent crude +3.1% to $33.85/bbl on indications that the Russians will play ball. (CL1:COM)
    • Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) is seeking a credit line of ¥500B - about $4.58B – Nikkei reports.
    • That's intended to hold liquidity problems at bay amid sliding sales in the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • The carmaker is pursuing credit from a consortium of banks led by Mizuho, according to the report.
    • That follows word that Nissan has furloughed about 10,000 hourly workers in the U.S., along with about 6,000 at its UK plant and about 3,000 more at a factory in Barcelona.
    • BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) in a LinkedIn post states that they aren’t going to make any layoffs in 2020 as a result of COVID-19.
    • More than 90% of employees are working remotely.
    • WeWork (WE) hasn't paid rent in some locations as it negotiates with landlords in hopes of cutting at least 30% from its rent liabilities, according to Bloomberg sources.
    • The landlord discussions include potential rent abatement, revenue-sharing structures, and other lease amendments.
    • Last summer, WeWork revealed rent liabilities of $47B ahead of its failed IPO.
    • WeWork spokesperson: "Rather than implementing a companywide policy on rent payments, we are individually reaching out to our more than 600 global landlord partners to work in good faith towards finding asset-specific solutions that benefit all parties involved."
    • Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD) says it will place most of its 25K employees on unpaid furlough with all the company's casino properties closed.
    • The company calls the furloughing action a last resort, but necessary due to the current lack of visibility regarding property re-openings.
    • The furloughs will begin on April 11.
    • Top Boyd execs will be taking pay cuts. Other cost-savings measures from Boyd include canceling all capital projects and suspending the dividend.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Looking at an update from yesterday's postmarket, Nomura Instinet notes that Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) came out better than expected, with strong liquidity and book value down less than peers, and an agency model that should thrive in this environment.
    • It's "positioned to lead the rebound for the group," analyst Matthew Howlett writes.
    • Book value is down 22.4% at the midpoint, vs. an average 36.6% decline at seven other mortgage REITs that have updated. Annaly closed at 0.59x book, vs. peer average of 0.53x, Howlett notes; given strong liquidity and operation position, "we expect the stock to move to the high end of price-to-book value multiples for the space which is 0.82x."
    • The balance sheet is 93% agency MBS, he says, noting it should continue to benefit from the Fed's daily support there. Also on the liquidity front, Nomura said it saw a "clear message to us" that the company's willing and able to keep buying back shares at the discount to intrinsic value.
    • The firm also expresses excitement about David Finkelstein's appointment as CEO, saying he "navigated the current storm and positioned the company to excel going forward."
    • It's sticking with a target price of $10.50, now implying 83% upside. Shares rose 29.2% today following the book value update.


    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) may take out $10B through the Federal Reserve's new lending vehicle for helping the U.S. economy during the coronavirus crisis, UBS analyst Myles Walton says.
    • Equity markets might initially welcome Boeing's use of the facility, but at the same time investors need to recalibrate to the company's increasingly debt-laden capital structure, the analyst says.
    • But Walton continues to worry about the hangover of Boeing's heavy debt load, which could climb to $40B of net debt in 2020 from $18B at year-end 2019.
    • The firm maintains a Neutral rating on Boeing shares while slashing its price target to $150 from $284.
    • Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX-2.2% after-hours as it reports preliminary FQ2 EPS of $0.32, below analyst consensus estimate $0.39, as business disruption related to Covid-19 in China hurt results by $0.15-0.18.
    • The company withdraws full-year guidance, saying the dynamic nature of the crisis renders it unable to estimate the full financial impacts beyond Q2 with reasonable accuracy, but it expects the negative financial impacts to Q3 will prove "significantly greater" than in Q2 and extend into Q4.
    • In the U.S., Starbucks says comparable store sales fell ~3% Y/Y in Q2, reflecting the rapid onset of Covid-19 business impacts in the final three weeks of the quarter.
    • The company says it does not plan to cut its dividend but will temporarily suspend its share buyback program, while taking steps to delay expenditures and reduce costs.
    • U.S. Well Services (NASDAQ:USWS+291.7% after-hours on news it has executed a long-term contract to provide electric hydraulic fracturing services for EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT) using its Clean Fleet technology.
    • Under the deal terms, U.S. Well Services will provide a dedicated electric hydraulic fracturing fleet to support EQT's completions activity for three years if all optional extensions are exercised.
    • Due to the impact of the pandemic on store closings, Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) says it will temporarily furlough many of its store and salon associates as of April 19.
    • Top execs are also taking a pay cut.
    • ULTA -0.23% after hours to $200.10.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:SIX) says certain of the company’s revolving credit lenders agreed to provide an incremental $131M of revolving credit commitments to its senior secured revolving credit facility.
    • "The increase in our revolving credit facility, combined with actions we have taken to reduce operating expenses and capital expenditures, provides us with significant runway to operate in this uncertain environment," says Six Flags CEO Mike Spanos.
    • The company expects revenue in Q1 of $25M to $30M. SIX was running ahead of last year's pace before the impact of the pandemic factored in.
    • Six Flags Entertainment (NYSE:SIX) says it's taking proactive steps to address its capital spending, including deferring or eliminating at least $40M to $50M of discretionary capital projects planned for 2020.
    • In addition, the company has agreed to suspend dividends payouts and buybacks. Neither action is a surprise.
    • Previously: Six Flags gets some financial breathing room (April 8)
    • SIX +4.97% AH.
    • Airbnb (AIRB) expects revenue to fall to about $2.2B this year, down from the $4.8B in 2019, according to The Information sources.
    • The forecast assumes that bookings would stand at about half of last year's levels by the middle of the year, which might not happen in the current environment.
    • The scenario that Airbnb showed to investors also featured the projection of reaching $5.6B in revenue in 2021.
    • Sources say Airbnb has internally discussed achieving a cash cushion to help it come out ahead when the pandemic clears.
    • Earlier this week, Airbnb announced a new $1B fundraising round, which Reuters sources said came with an up to 11% interest rate.
    • Costco (NASDAQ:COSTreports comparables sales in March rose 12.3% after F/X and gas were factored out. The consensus mark isn't applicable because analysts didn't adjusted their estimates for the pandemic impact.
    • Comparable sales were up 12.1% in the U.S., 7.2% in Canada and 19.2% for other international markers.
    • E-commerce sales skied 50% during the month.
    • COST -1.05% AH

    • Disney Plus (NYSE:DIS) has surpassed the 50M-subscriber mark on a global basis, just five months after it launched in the United States.
    • The service has since rolled out to more than a dozen countries - notably India, which added about 8M of the 50M to Disney's pile.
    • Over the past two weeks, the streaming service became available in the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Switzerland.
    • Updated 5:38 p.m.: Shares are up 3.4% after hours.
    • AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.12/share monthly dividend-25% decrease from prior dividend of $0.16.
    • Payable May 11; for shareholders of record April 30; ex-div April 29.
    • Alongside, the company says tangible book value per share as of March 31 was $13.60, down 23% YTD. On April 1, AGNC estimated March 31 book value at $12.35-13.25, so things are a bit fluid. Today's closing price of $11.27 is a 17% discount to March 31 book ($13.60).
    • Shares are marginally lower in after hours action
    • AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) trims its monthly dividend to 12 cents per share from 16 cents as market dislocations resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic hurt its book value in Q1.
    • "A significant portion of the decline in our book value during the first quarter was driven by reduced price premiums for higher quality specified pools, which we believe will reverse over time," said CEO and Chief Investment Officer Gary Kain.
    • AGNC rises 2.6% in after-hours trading.
    • Estimates tangible net book value of ~$13.60 per common share at March 31, 2020, down ~23% YTD.
    • Estimates projected Q1 net spread and dollar roll income, excluding estimated "catch-up" premium amortization cost to be 55 cents to 58 cents per share; consensus estimate is 57 cents.
    • As of March 31, 2020, estimated cash and unencumbered agency MBS were ~$3.5B, which didn't include ~$1.2B of capital plus excess margin held at the company's broker-dealer subsidiary Bethesda Securities or $0.3B of unencumbered non-agency securities.
    • As of March 31, 2020, AGNC's total investment portfolio was ~$93B, which included ~$21B of To-Be-Announced agency MBS and $1.1B of non-agency securities. 
    • "At risk" leverage was ~9.4x at quarter end.
    • Medtronic (NYSE:MDTannounces that its Puritan Bennett 560 ventilator will be available next month in the U.S. under emergency use authorization from the FDA (it is currently sold in 35 countries around the world at an average price of just under $10K).
    • By month-end, it expects to be producing 400 ventilators per week (four models), increasing to 700/week by the end of May and 1,000/week by the end of June, a five-fold increase compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. It projects that it will produce 25K ventilators across all platforms over the next six months.
    • A remote access feature for another ventilator model, the PB980, enabling clinicians to adjust the settings outside of the ICU, is in limited market release in the U.S. in two hospitals. If the feature is well-received, the release will be expanded later this month.
    • Shares up 1% after hours.

    • "We're getting much closer to getting our country back to the way it was," President Trump said at the White House coronavirus task force briefing, without giving any specifics on timing.
    • On the medical supply situation, FEMA has delivered 11M N95 masks to states within a few days, Trump said. The U.S. is working with Philips (NYSE:PHG) to double ventilators by May, he said.
    • "At some point, we're all going to win," he said, referring to the countries combating the coronavirus.
    • The U.S. is sharing information with countries around the world, he said. "We're giving them whatever information we're able to glean."
    • The State Department has repatriated more than 50,000 U.S. citizens since Jan. 29, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said; there are several thousand more that the department is working to bring home now.
    • The U.S. has 423,135 confirmed COVID-19 cases, up ~36K from yesterday, and 14,390 deaths, up ~2K from April 7, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
    • 6:13 PM: The U.S. has about 30M hydroxychloroquine pills in the national stockpile.
    • 6:15 PM: Trump calls on Congress to approve additional funding for small business loans quickly. "Democrats and Republicans are coming together" on the issue, he said.
    • A phase four stimulus bill can come later, he said.
    • 6:18 PM: "We have to be heading on the downside of the slope very strongly" before re-opening the country, Trump said, adding that he'll rely heavily on his health experts.
    • 6:21 PM: Trump said he'd be in favor of reducing the salary of the head of the Tennessee Valley Authority as part of an infrastructure bill.
    • 6:23 PM: "We're doing much better in some cases than several other countries" in changing behavior to decrease the number of new virus cases, said Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force response coordinator.
    • 6:28 PM: Trump said he'll look at why smaller casinos in Nevada aren't eligible for the small business loans under the CARES Act. "I'll look into that strongly," he said.
    • 6:41 PM: "I have a lot of good options" if OPEC doesn't come to an agreement on oil production tomorrow, Trump said, without naming them. He has previously said he could impose tariffs on foreign oil coming into the U.S.
    • 6:45 PM: Trump said he doesn't have any investments in hydroxychloroquine.
    • 6:50 PM: Vice President Mike Pence said the Treasury Department will post a new FAQ that will make it clear that lenders may use their own closing documents in handling the Payroll Protection Program forgivable loans for small businesses.
    • 6:53 PM: Newly manufactured ventilators are arriving from GE (NYSE:GE) and Hamilton, Pence said.
    • 6:56 PM: The CDC has new guidance that will allow essential workers who have been exposed to the coronavirus but don't have symptoms to return to work safely, Pence said. That would include health care and food supply workers, among others.
    • 7:05 PM: "We need to keep mitigating," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "The data tells us that mitigation is working."
    • 7:15 PM: Pence said there are four clinical trials underway to study hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19.
    • 7:30 PM: "Our short-term objective is to test as many Americans as possible," he said, adding that he'd like to get the 15-minute COVID-19 tests distributed across the country.
    • 7:31 PM: Briefing ends.

    90 minutes!




  15. Record 16.8 million have sought US jobless aid since virus


  16. ‘A Tragedy Is Unfolding’: Inside New York’s Virus Epicenter



  17. JNUG is too volatile, so I play GLD, GDX, GDXJ and GOLD as Phil notes.  Mainly, GLD.  Easier to manage and sell calls against the position.  


  18. Phil re GM and FCX

    I have searched the past 8 or so days of posts and haven't found any adjustments related to GM or FCX.  Can you give me a current opinion when you get a chance.  Or if anyone can find/repost that would be great.

     

    Thanks


  19. Looks like all the good news on the financial end is just about exhausted, now we need some good news on the virus front before we can be confident in any upward market move.


  20. WY and GBTC were good plays. REITs may be over-extended however


  21. FCX/Jeff – Best place to look is under our Portfolio Reviews (tab at top).  Here they are post-adjustment.

    GM Long Call 2022 21-JAN 18.00 CALL [GM @ $24.19 $1.06] 50 3/23/2020 (652) $22,500 $4.50 $4.68 $8.68     $9.18 $1.28 $23,375 103.9% $45,875
    GM Short Call 2022 21-JAN 25.00 CALL [GM @ $24.19 $1.06] -50 3/24/2020 (652) $-13,250 $2.65 $2.70     $5.35 $0.60 $-13,500 -101.9% $-26,750
    GM Short Put 2022 21-JAN 18.00 PUT [GM @ $24.19 $1.06] -30 3/24/2020 (652) $-13,500 $4.50 $-1.03     $3.48 $-0.17 $3,075 22.8% $-10,425
    FCX Long Call 2022 21-JAN 5.00 CALL [FCX @ $8.39 $0.36] 30 10/11/2019 (652) $12,690 $4.23 $0.17 $4.23     $4.40 $0.15 $510 4.0% $13,200
    FCX Short Call 2022 21-JAN 10.00 CALL [FCX @ $8.39 $0.36] -30 10/11/2019 (652) $-7,140 $2.38 $-0.10     $2.28 $0.18 $300 4.2% $-6,840
    FCX Short Put 2022 21-JAN 10.00 PUT [FCX @ $8.39 $0.36] -20 10/11/2019 (652) $-6,700 $3.35 $0.75     $4.10 $-0.10 $-1,500 -22.4% $-8,200

    So the LTP is at $580,648 now and the STP is $545,633 so over $1.1M now – that's up $100,000 since last week!

    That's the point of all that adjusting and it's really pretty simple, when the longs are down, we press them and when the shorts are down, we press them and when the longs are up, we take profits and when the shorts are up ——- we take profits!  Since we tend to have long and short legs on each position (because we're BEING THE HOUSE), we have tons of opportunities to take profits, whichever way the market moves.  

    And what are we left with?  STRONGER POSITIONS!

    The speed at which this is playing out is an incredible opportunity to review our system over just a few weeks – I strongly suggest going back and reading our Portfolio Adjustment Series.  It's no different than what we usually do except usually something like this takes many months or even years to play out.

    See, in the BIG picture, we're just testing the 2,500 line and what is 10% below 2,850?  2,565!

    Virus/Kustomz – That's my weekend concern as the numbers don't match the narrative so far.  

    Still I'm optimistic as we see plenty of evidence that it CAN be contained – we just need to see our Government be WILLING to contain it. 

    New Yorker coronavirus cover shows Trump with a mask over his eyes ...


  22. QT – It's not a "bear case" it's a specific effect on the days when they sell assets. Typically lasts one day, maybe two, in a bull market, which is the only market they'd ever unwind the balance sheet into. 


  23. Ah, short-term that does seem like it's worth watching.  


  24. How coronavirus spread across the globe – visualised




  25. FAZ – I believe FAZ just hit an all-time low


  26. Phil i have 2 2021 CMG 600 calls that are killing me right now $240 and I originally sold them for $53 (obviously at the wrong time but I was worried about my 2 2022 490 Puts so i thought it was a good hedge)

    I closed out one of the 490 puts when stock hit $700, but now its at $767

    I know its over priced but earnings are the 21st — should I just ride it into earnings and hope for shitty guidance or roll out to 2022?  hedge another way?

    thanks


  27. FAZ – all those 3x daily directional ETFs decay very, very badly. If you draw a straight line on the 1 year chart, straight under the recent spike, you'll find that today's price is on the original decay trajectory. They're really not meant as buy and hold vehicles, since they tend to make new lows every week, unless something disrupts the sector.



  28. There are THREE separate types of coronavirus


  29. OPEC cutting 10Mb is nowhere near enough.

    FAZ/Daveo – With those ultra-ETFs, if you put together a string of big moves against them, they fall apart fast.  So funny, we shorted them when they were hitting $70, selling the July $85 calls for $28 and now back to $24 already.  

    Submitted on 2020/03/21 at 7:49 am

    XLF is down from $30 to $18, so about 50% and FAZ is up 180%.  That doesn't seem right but that's because the 3x resets daily so it's like compound interest as XLF falls.  So, if XLF drops from $18 to $9, FAZ could get close to $200.  People aren't wired to think like that – even the people who trade these things for a living so the spreads at that altitude don't even exist but you can do something like take the July $60 ($28.50)/85 ($24.50) bull call spread for $4 that pays $25 though you won't likely ever get $25 but you should get a good $12 if FAZ takes off.

    FAZ June $85s are $22.50 and the $50s are $28.50 which is silly because they are in the money by $15 and you're only paying $6 for the spread.  If you were to take 15 of those for $9,000 and sell 5 of the April $85s for $11 ($5,500), you've paid for more than half of the spread on your first sale.    You can pay for the rest by selling puts in your favorite bank or JPM/Chase, who fell from $140 to $80 and the 2022 $50 puts are $8 so selling just 5 of those puts $4,000 in your pocket.  That's a good one for the STP as the FAZ can pay up to $52,500 and who doesn't want to own JPM at $50?

    Submitted on 2020/03/24 at 12:13 pm

    FAZ – We paid $2.40 for the spread and we can take the $50s off the table for $18.85 – let's do that!  If the banking sector starts to collapse, we can cover.  The key to this spread was the STUPID premium we got paid for the short calls, now it would be criminal not to take advantage of that…

    Submitted on 2020/04/07 at 11:02 am

    FAZ – Silly to risk this into earnings – even though it's miles out of the money.  Let's close it.  

    So we took the spread before the big spike but when it went higher – rather than panicking we began dismantling the spread – taking the long call money first and leaving the short calls because (as I've been pushing this week) we KNOW what FAZ is really worth and we understand the mechanics driving the options so, on this trade, we were able to take advantage in both directions.  

    CMG/Coulter -  Well, assuming you had 2 puts and cashed one if you have a nice profit in the $490 put that's left, why not cash that too.  That leaves you with 2 2021 $600 calls at $240 and you sold them for $53 and let's say you made $27 on the puts is $70 so you are down $170 ($34,000).  I'd roll that to 3 short Sept $820 calls at $80 ($24,000) and 2 short Sept $620 puts at $50 ($10,000) so now you have $100 leeway in either direction and you simply roll the loser out after earnings (if you have to).  When you are down $34,000 – getting even is as good as winning and a lot easier to accomplish! 


  30. Anybody see any good and recent articles or interviews on the possibility of negative rates coming to the US and potential impacts of that? 


  31. Looking at Brent vs WTI seem like WTI fell too far or Brent not far enough?


  32. So with feds back junk bonds now are there any paper investments not covered?  So the mostly not invested taxpayer will bail out every piece of paper but a bazillion small businesses will still die?


  33. Negative Rates/CRS – I haven't seen much lately.  I think people have bigger fish to fry than worrying about negative rates.  

    The biggest impact is on people who live off their savings – this is devastating for them.  That's why we're starting a new Hedge Fund that will pay out 2% quarterly, kind of like our Butterfly Portfolio but distributing some of the profits along the way.  I think that's going to be a big hit as people like my Mom aren't getting crap from their retirement accounts anymore.

    Brent/Tangled – They both fell $5 off the highs.  Close enough.

    Energy stocks are falling, pulling the indexes down.  /RTY least affected because only small caps.

    There was bound to be selling into the close anyway. 

    That seems to be their plan, tangled.   What did you expect with an Oligarch President?

    /ES re-shorts doing well but unless they make serious money, I'll hold them (2) into the weekend.  


  34. game of chicken into the bell?

    not seeing a lot of profit taking yet


  35. March expiries hugely favored shorts and April's will probably hugely favor calls. I predict May will somewhat favor shorts.


  36. Nice to see that there are some buyers.

    Volume has been decent so it counts.

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Apr 09, 2020 277.58 281.19 275.47 277.94 277.94 167,500,330
    Apr 08, 2020 267.96 276.00 265.25 274.03 274.03 152,966,300
    Apr 07, 2020 274.21 275.03 264.89 265.13 265.13 201,427,200
    Apr 06, 2020 257.84 267.00 248.17 264.86 264.86 188,061,200
    Apr 03, 2020 250.76 253.32 245.22 248.19 248.19 135,561,200
    Apr 02, 2020 245.19 252.68 244.59 251.83 251.83 177,660,400
    Apr 01, 2020 247.98 257.66 243.90 246.15 246.15 189,554,600

    So strange after barely breaking 50M for months at a time.  

    Looks like we're going to stay green.

    Have a very happy Easter/Passover weekend,

    - Phil

    Passover Rabbit Motivator #2 | Cute little animals, Rabbit, Jewish ...


  37. I hope to see exactly no buyers starting soon. Nobody should be buying this market.


  38. /phil/ES- Are you holding the 2 short into weekend or stop out?


  39. BDC – on the day there are no buyers then there will be no sellers either. And if no transactions occur then the securities don't get repriced, So that would be a boring day indeed of 0-0-0-0 on all the indexes. But that won't happen because when Ronny Retail panics and sells all his life savings at 5 cents on the dollar, you can bet someone is going to buy them. And they'll do it with stimulus money.


  40. Hi Guys wishing you all a healthy Easter hope it will be better next year.


  41. Look at ICD. Pure junk. This incompetent and criminal administration would be better served throwing money literally landfill garbage (it's at least a physical resource that can be processed). Fracking is a dying, underwater debt scam. It'll always be so until it dies it's final miserable death which should've been eons ago at this point. 

    Throwing bad money after bad money. Fracking, empty hotel rooms, empty flights. Zilch, nothing, nada, zero. That's what Neck-waddle, fat-s*** Dump is. This is what ends so well as the market is predicting? Throwing money at a dying industry, that was obviously dying prior to any outbreak (just look at that pathetic penny-stock chart). This is just a wasted opportunity to put money to work usefully and instead it's this trash. Junk bonds. Junk presidency, junk economy, junk. The reality TV star gets to put his 7th bankruptcy trophy on the shelf soon: The United States of America.


  42. Can some evangelical tell me what page of the Bible this picture is on?

    Asking for a friend.


  43. I can tell you without looking. There aren't any pictures in the Bible.


  44. ewww….


  45. Her book's coming out in June. I'd be surprised if it had words in it. 

    Here's an interesting question.


  46. Be best BDC…. ;)


  47. CVX back to 54. They still sell oil right? 


  48. …actually 84….and yes…. :)


  49. 1020 – Of course. I actually like Melania as a person (with the exception of wearing a coat that says she doesn't care, but I bet we don't know the full story on that, and who that was really meant for). She has a real Cinderella story if you look at it: an immigrant that came to the US fairly poor, successfully evaded US immigration law, found he financial footing as needed even if black market activities were involved. I could care less, but I'm not a morally bankrupt, hypocritical, sexually repressed GOP goon, so that kind of thing never bothered me.   

    Then she married Dump which throws tar on the whole rave review, but we'll see what the Third Act of this play brings. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt she didn't fully realize the extent of his 65 sexual assaults or the on-going porn-star affair he was having while she was raising an infant at home. Redemption is plausible.


  50. CVX going back to 54.


  51. What's going to BK the USA isn't stimulus checks. It's entitlement programs like social security and Medicare/Medicaid. The unfunded liabilities of just those three boondoggles is something like $200 TRILLION. Social Security and Medicaid/Medicare and welfare programs account for 56% of the federal budget already, debt service is another 8%, pensions and veteran's benefits are 8%, defense and security assistance is 16%. And the whole rest of the government runs on the remaining 12%.

    So yes, the country is going to go bankrupt but it isn't just a Trumpster Fire. It's every politician in Washington that lacks the intestinal fortitude to tackle entitlement reform, and that's every one of them since FDR.

    Melania – She has bad taste in men, otherwise there's nothing wrong with her. When she married Donnie he wasn't a half-wit president. He was an entertaining half-wit real estate developer and reality TV guy. Shit, Melania probably isn't even a conservative. Donnie wasn't either until he decided that he couldn't get the democrat nomination for 2016.


  52. …but she's kissing a toad… :)

     

    Happy Easter and Passover Everyone!


  53. /ES/Ravi – Well, since the STP/LTP made $100,000 (10%) this week, I think I'm too bullish into the weekend so logic dictated holding the short puts to balance the scales.  

    Thanks Yodi, you too!   "Next year in Jerusalem", as the Germans like to say…  wink

    ICD/BDC – Frackers gotta frack, frack, frack… shale it off!  

    It's like if Roosevelt's New Deal was to prop up the horse shoe and oil lamp industry…

    You have the wrong bible, Dawg:

    Awaiting product image

    LOL BDC – I like that the guy disses Reddit for liking his post.

    CVX/BDC – 67.8% of profits are from Oil, 25.3% from NG, the rest (not much) is refining.  XOM, on the other hand is only 33.4% oil – that's why I like them and TOT, who are diversifying away as fast as they can.  

    VLO is still the best bargain.  People are still driving cars that use gas and their input cost is oil.

     

     

    Meanwhile, we had a net 30M build this week and that's out of 130Mb production so 19% too much oil being produced gives us an idea of the extent of the pullback in the economy.  I know I last filled up about a month ago.  In fact, I should go start my car just to make sure the battery is good.  Anyway, so OPEC cut 10Mb out of 100Mb/d production is nowhere near enough and we're going to drown in oil soon as we overflow every possible storage space.

    Entitlements/Dawg – And that's exactly why a virus that kills off seniors is so perfect right now!  Don't say Trump doesn't have a plan for our country!  

    Pin on I AM A LIBERAL


  54. DawgDaddy – I'll tell ya, if you an me ran the country we'd be in good shape. We're good checks on each other and have the Big General Idea down pretty well. I'll flip you for P versus VP?

    Phil, Treasury Sec., StJ Sec of State. 1020 Press.


  55. The fact Trump isn't a Dem prez is just bizarre if you think about it. All the stuff the GOP told us they hate. Divorced President. Bankrupt business man. TV star (read, "Hollywood elite"). Real estate globalist. Elitist. Snooty Golfer. Married a trophy wife for #3 that's 24 years his junior. Uses bad language and insults people. Bragged emphatically about his own, personal brand of sexual assaults. Has his family and nepotism everywhere all over official government business. Lies incessantly. Buddy buddy with dictators, communist, dictators and journalist murderers. Huge debts. Inept bailouts. Money printing. Brazenly unprepared for a pandemic.

    Just picture that list, but picture it was Obama.


  56. Bailouts bail-out shareholders which is market inefficient. The market should allow the shareholders to go bankrupt for electing a Board that appointed C-suite operators without sufficient oversight. Then the company gets taken over by the debtholders which is ultimately the Fair thing. So really the bailouts screw the debtholders who should now own these companies outright. The government interfering with this process draws out the coming Depression much further than it should go on. 

    Dawgdaddy / entitlements: I'd make an Entitlement Coin. For every dollar "owed" in entitlements you instead get 1 Entitlement Coin. I'd then let the open market value the coin on exchanges…

    As for me, I'm paying into social security. So you can call it an "entitlement" that I get it back? I would call that "give me my money back." Of course, you and I know "money" is actually just a concept and it's a wholly owned subsidiary of the Federal Government, so…. (ever try printing your own hundreds?)


  57. Wait, that makes me third in line of succession BDC! 


  58. Entitlements/BDC, Dawg – Yes, it is criminal doublespeak to call them "Entitlements" as if the person getting the benefits hasn't earned them.  

    Let's take an ordinary worker who's 65 now and started working at 22 in 1977.

    Let's say they never earned more than $30,000 a year and 12% of that went to SS so $3,600/yr for 43 years compounded at just 4% (because the government completely mismanaged the money).

    http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm

    That's $411,886 they have coming to them anyway.  

    So $16,475 is not a gift at all, is it?  That's just 4% interest on $411,886.

    http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm

    Meanwhile, had the Government been getting 8% interest (S&P returns) on $6,000 (12% of $50,000 average US income) for 43 years, that would be $2,135,697 that the taxpayer is ENTITLED TO and he should easily be able to live the rest of his life in comfort.  

    Stealing people's retirement money and then saying you can't possibly afford to pay them back and then turning it around as if they are some kind of ingrates who are a burden on you is just immoral claptrap.

    And think about how many people paid into the system and collected just a few bucks before dying – where's that money?  

    Oh look, there it is:

    Real Mean Incomes

    Top 5% used to make 2.5x the average income, now they make 8.5x and bitch about the unfunded liabilities they looted…


  59. any reason why TSLA up to $592 AH???


  60. Entitlement / Phil – The argument that conservative will make though is that instead of paying the 12% SS tax, people should be able to invest that money themselves. So that worker would have taken the $3600/year and put that into an investment fund and get that $2M now (well, more like 1.5M this month). First, that person who is making $30K a year today was probably making less than $10k in 1977 so nowhere near what is needed. It might in fact be much closer to the $400K than the $2M. But OK. The other problem is that no one making $30K today would save that $3600 unless it was invested for them automatically. As shown by many studies, the average family can't even afford college, healthcare or even cars (they need a 6 year loan now). So they would simply spend the money on what conservatives deem as non-essential like food, medicine and lodging. Run up some debt and be in abject poverty or bankrupt by retirement age. So the government is in fact investing it for them! Also, I am trying to imagine the trillions from retirement funds – talk about possible asset bubbles. We would have so much money chasing the same investment opportunities we have today! What happens to people retiring when these bubbles pop?

    The problem with unfunded liabilities as you pointed out is not what we are paying but what we are not taking! If the top 10% paid what they used to pay in 1977 when that worker started working, we would have surplus every year! Government spending has been relatively flat over the past decades. What's not flat is the revenue from people who have the means to pay more. 

    And let's not talk about Medicare/Medicaid – even if that worker could have saved $2M, private insurance for an 80 year old guys with pre-conditions (assuming Obamacare is still in place) might be $10,000/month! And if conservatives have their way, that guy could not get insurance anyway and would be bankrupted after 10 days in ICU!

    Other than that, these entitlement programs are what is ruining this country! Not massive bailouts of private companies with no strings attached, CEO making billions after bankrupting businesses, companies not paying taxes, etc… Socialism for the top 1% and wild west capitalism for the rest of us.</rant>


  61. A Coronavirus Reckoning for the Left






  62. Fed Has Firepower to Do More Even After $2.3 Trillion Aid Blitz




  63. Managing the Liquidity Crisis


  64. It's only called "entitlements' when you *think* you won't need them….



  65. Barr says Russia probe was started ‘without basis’


  66. Senators block new virus aid, Pelosi decries ‘stunt’



  67. Nearly 2,000 Dead as Coronavirus Ravages Nursing Homes in N.Y. Region








  68. Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau volcano shoots ash, lava


  69. Slow Start for Rapid Coronavirus Tests Frustrates States



  70. Ezra Kelin from Vox was making a great comment about the current situation – basically, at the Federal level, there is no planning going on whatsoever. Trump talks about opening the country for business but no one has explained how that's going to be done! Ezra was saying that maybe they will simply roll out a Mission Accomplished banner or cut a ribbon at the White House! Or maybe put Jared in charge… No plan for widespread testing, no plan to replenish stockpiles, and in fact, they hold back on helping small businesses and as pointed out in an article aboive, the Labor Secretary is coming out with new rules to limit unemployment eligibility because… some people might get too much money. It's simply amateur hour there. 


  71. They could do more damage in very little time! This is going to take time. Will people go back to stadiums right away, to movie theaters, to restaurants, to Disney World? Will people go back to conferences, fly all around the country! Not until we have more certainty about who carries what! 


  72. I think it's a bear market bounce but as my shorts are teaching me that bounce can go pretty high 


  73. amateur hour – It's just coach tdump making minute by minute adjustments to the 'game'…. :(


  74. …and don't get me going on the difficulty in finding one testicle in tdump's cabinet, past or present!

    Pfft!


  75. Johns Hopkins just started tracking Total Tested in the US by state.  That’s a not-so-subtle way of cutting out Trump’s BS on testing.  2.7M tested, 530,000 infected and we’re right on track for 1/500 Americans infected by tomorrow, still on an alarming path.  


  76. Capitalists Or Cronyists?


  77. UK political parties unite to demand recall of parliament


  78. Disney World furloughing 43,000 more workers due to virus






  79. Maryland and New York Governors want $500B more in federal funds for


  80. On this page, they track all kind of statistics like case per million, death per millions and test per million:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    The USA far behind as far as testing is concerned! And rising in cases and death.


  81. Well, so far Friday's gains are gone in the Futures.  

    Oil back to $22.65 as there's NO DEAL – /RB 0.682, /NG $1.75 – all very tempting but, as I said, 10Mb is never going to be enough though it really is as they are looking ahead to the virus ending and traders are not.  In other words, 10Mb/d does nothing to address the current surplus because, if the US has a 30Mb build out of 200Mb, then we're 15% too much and that's 15Mb/d globally but that's not realistic to continue all year and OPEC is looking at a long-term cut and they feel 10Mb for 6 months (1.8Bn barrels) will address the 15Mb/d build for 3 months (1.35Bn barrels) and then some – it's just that they are communicating it poorly and again – people simply don't understand math.  

    So I still like USO long down here and I'd be willing to play the Futures but they could go down before they go up, so very dangerous.  


  82. EU finance ministers agree coronavirus rescue deal


  83. Vale Has Positioned Itself Well



  84. Fauci says ‘rolling reentry’ of US economy possible in May