More Howie Predictions – Loyalty Is Up For Review
Courtesy of Howard Lindzon
Yesterday, I started my 2021 predictions.
Today, I will add to them.
I spent more time than I would like this year staring at the markets. Like sugar, it was addictive. Like sugar, I want to break the addiction. But, like sugar, most addicts will just stay hooked.
The markets as I mentioned in my predictions yesterday are in millions of new people’s head, bones and soul.
A whole new generation will want to ‘Be Cathie Wood‘ (please read Ben’s post and be careful of chasing returns).
I am a simple trend follower so as I stated at the end of 2019 with ‘Could 2020 Be As Good As 2019‘ (fintech and healthcare will continue to lead), I simply work off the premise that a lot of the trends that we see exiting 2020 will continue for years to come.
The only real market prediction I can safely make in 2021 is SUPPLY IS COMING. It will be up to you to figure out when that supply leads to a market downdraft.
SPAC’s, IPO’s, Direct Listings will continue in a relentless fashion because stocks are going up.
As a simple for instance, yesterday I mentioned MOOC’s in my prediction post and I got an incredible amount of responses with ‘which stocks should I buy?’.
Now, first of all, that is a GREAT response, because this is a trend, but the bankers also know this. I expect Coursera and Udemy to try and get public this year, but trust me that the bankers have noticed the parabolic rise of Chegg’s stock the last few years. I went back through my archives as I know I owned Chegg before the insane price gains. In 2015 I had that feeling about this sector and bought Chegg but got bored in 2016 when it did not materialize. The bankers or the ‘SPAC’ers will give people what they want in 2021
So let us review…
1. Supply is coming.
2. The unbundling of the indexes will continue as people want to ‘Be Cathy Wood’.
2. Healthcare and fintech trends should continue and I will continue to ride them.
3. The MOOC’s or MOOC ‘cousins’ will get public.
4. Loyalty is Up For Review. I liked this Coefficient Capital – New Consumer slide deck on Consumer trends from my friend Dan Frommer. From alcohol to milk, from razors to ball shavers people are trying new products and questioning their loyalty to the big brands. This trend continues to platy well for the platforms and the creative entrepreneurs that know how to use them well.
5. As loyalty is up for review, the government will continue to gang up with consumers on the FAANG stocks. This late year 2020 surge in small caps has been exciting. It has come at a time when Google and Facebook and now Alibaba in China are being sued and investigated by the government. My only prediction about FAANG stocks coming out of this siege is that Apple looks like the one with the least government and consumer disdain. Just my observation and gut.
Tomorrow I will wrap up my predictions with some discussions and links to the other big trends in alts (Daddy…What’s a Bond?), media, culture, gaming and cannabis.
