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PhilStockWorld April Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,967,325!  

We're going to need 2 Dr. Evils soon to equal our paired Long and Short-Term Portfolios, which began with $500,000 + $100,000 back on October 1st of 2019 (seems like forever, doesn't it?).  So we're up over 200% and that makes $1.8M our stop if the market turns lower faster than we can cover it but we're very well-hedged (see yesterday's Short-Term Portfolio Review) and we actually were pretty aggressive this month ADDING positions to the LTP and those positions have helped bring the LTP to $1,811,018, which is up $109,075 since our March 18th review.

Other than the new trades, we only made 2 adjustments last month – we doubled down on WPM and rolled our short Berkshire March calls to short June calls – very low-touch but, at the time, I said about our positions:

16 trades in this section are good for $357,000 in future profits so, adding up the other half we're projecting $671,000 in future profits between now and Jan 2023 if the market simply maintains these levels (or at least our stocks do).  As noted above, some of these stocks are so good we'd almost rather be assigned than make the rest of our money and some of the spreads are so good that it's hard to find a reason to do anything else but sit back and let them make us richer.  

As usual, this portfolio is too good to dump so we're going to have to take a licking to motivate ourselves to walk away.  As noted before, we have about $600,000 worth of protection in the STP – so we don't think we'll take too much damage on the way down – lots of time to decide to bail and the profits are already built in if the need never comes.  

On the whole, we're very well-balanced with a ton of CASH on the sidelines.  

Since the market continued to climb relentlessly and since we felt the positions we had with the hedges we had were pretty bullet-proof, we began adding more longs to the mix and that turned out to be well-timed on BA, BIG, CIM, DISCA, FB, PHM, QSR, REYN, UBS and VIAC – 10 new trades added to the LTP in the last 30 days and we STILL have $1,019,405 in CASH!!! sitting on the sidelines – ready to take advantage of fallen angels during earnings season.

I certainly did not thing we'd be pulling the trigger on 10 new stocks after keeping very quiet since the fall but we adjusted our expectations slightly higher and found 10 stocks that were, amazingly, still at or below their fair values – even in this crazy market.  While the LTP gained ground, the STP lost $43,097 and, if we gained $109,075 in the LTP, our Future profit potential dropped to about $560,000 so to BALANCE ourselves more bullish – we deployed some more cash and brought our upside potential back over $700,000 – about $50,000/month going forward, if all goes well.

  • Short Puts – These are stocks we are promising to buy if they get cheaper and we've been paid $75,900 in exchange for that promise.  This is a great way to raise cash, especially if you have plenty of buying power and REALLY would like to buy Boeing (BA), for example, for net $177/share – a 30% discount to the current price.  We just got paid $11,500 to make that promise and it's still $11,000 so still good for a new trade but you have to REALLY want to buy 500 shares of BA for net $177 – keep that in mind.  Notice how these are almost all new (ish), we cashed out our short puts into the holidays – just in case things went wrong.
  • CIM – Still has that new trade smell and pays a lovely 0.30 ($900) quarterly dividend.
  • TOT – I love these guys, if they drop we're going to get a lot more aggressive.

  • BABA – We're still down so it's still good for a new trade.
  • BIG – Top Trade Alert from Wednesday, so still good for a new trade.
  • BRK.B – On track, almost too much so at net $46,067 out of a potential $50,000 but that's by the end of the year and we don't need the money or margin so may as well sit here instead of in cash.  

  • CHL – Options status is up in the air until/if Biden un-suspends the Chinese Telcos.
  • CSCO – In the money at net $47,300 out of a potential $60,000 so $12,300 (26%) more to be made between now and January – yawn….

  • FB – Still has that new trade smell and we haven't made too much money yet.  This was a small initial entry ahead of earnings (4/28) to remind us to keep an eye on them. 
  • FL – Net $33,975 on the $37,500 spread so another one with about 10% more to gain but not worth worrying about.  You can see why we needed new trades.
  • GILD I – At the money but plenty more to make.
  • GILD II – Net $60,000 with $40,000 to gain is almost good for a new trade.  

  • GOLD – Coming back already, our timing was perfect.
  • GS – Just had blowout earnings.
  • IBM – Deep in the money already. 
  • IMAX – Movies are opening back up.

  • INTC – Our Stock of the Year for 2021!  Already deep in the money.
  • LYG – We're expecting good earnings.
  • MMM – Deep in the money already.

  • PAA – Paid a $1,440 dividend on Jan 28th, next one is April 29th and this one is still playable at net $38,320. 
  • PBR – On track
  • PFE – Already at the money.

  • PHM – Brand new trade.
  • QSR – Already doing well.
  • REYN – Already popping.
  • SKT – Hard to believe how hard I had to work to get people to pay attention to this one.

  • SPWR – I think we have them in every portfolio!   This is an old one and stupidly in the money now.  
  • T – Still cheap but we already made the easy money.
  • UBS – Popped on earnings already.

  • VIAC – Just added them back in as they got cheaper and it's a small position – in case they get even cheaper we are thrilled to double down.
  • VLO – Should have great earnings.
  • W – The only short in the portfolio – not doing well but  too soon to adjust.

  • WBA – Another one I used to have to bang the table on.
  • WPM – We just doubled down on them last month so of course I like them as a new trade. 
  • WU – On track at net $6,900 on the $20,000 spread.  We're already up $3,500 but it's still better than most trade ideas you'll find – even after our first 100% gain.

Wow, not one thing needed changing!   We'll see how earnings go and we'll see if theis market ever manages to correct and test our new balance.  With 25% more long positions, I think we may lose a bit of ground on a downturn (we gained last time) – but we can always add more hedges to the STP.

 

 

IN PROGRESS

 

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. yodi
    April 16th, 2021 at 12:40 am | Permalink | Tweet thisIgnore this user
    We also opened an acc with Tastywork. They gave the following reply.

    tastyworks | Support <support@tastyworks.com>
    Do, 15.04.2021 16:27
    Hi Yolanda,  

    We do not accept any foreign stocks for deposit. If the other firm is holding the shares on the foreign exchange you will need to discuss with them on how to convert the shares to ADR shares before the transfer request is submitted.

    Regards,
    ?
    Stephen

    Well Phil what do you recomment one does? TIA


  3. RIO spreads are up 28.5% since I mentioned them a view days ago. Trading them in an IRA so could not do the short puts, but still looking pretty good. 


  4. Good morning!

    CHL/Yodi – At this point, I'd get a lawyer to write a letter after checking the rules.  This is just silly.  I'd put TD on notice that you demand they turn over your ADR shares of CHL or cause them to be converted and then hand them over or return the money you paid for them.  They stole your property!

    My understanding is IB is helpful, can't imagine TastyWorks has the staff.

    RIO/Dawg – Nice.


  5. Phil/LTP vs dividend portfolio. First time i came across this ,but I was short 10 options in Div portfolio and needed to go long same 10 in LTP. I am thinking of opening separate portfolios in IBKR, or would you just close off in IBKR and keep 10 short and 10 long in different portfolios in poweropt?


  6. Phil/PFE 

    Been watching PFE and have 

    20    '23 $30c ($7)

    -10  '23p ($5)

    Been waiting to get $4 for the short $37s and with the move, could now get $4.10 or would it be better to try for $3 for the $40s?

    Any news from your bud at Trulieve, .. seems to have had a bit of a relapse lately?

    THX!


  7. Portfolios/Stuart – Really it's the LTP/STP we keep paired and the STP covers all the portfolios a bit for a hedge but I don't tend to cross the long portfolios with each other or it's Chaos but, if you can deal with the chaos, why not?

    PFE/Wing – Hard to imagine they can't take $40 in two years.  

    TCNNF/Wing – Well $50+ was $6Bn and they only have $500M in sales making about $100M so a little stetched.  I was loving them at $10 – this is $40.





  8. Thanks Phil for your opinion, much appriciated. Now can you recomment any lawyers. TIA


  9. Possible Ptsas and some other suckers will join the club and bundle together??? 


  10. Covid eradication – Gottlieb (not an epidemiologist) doesn't understand the most important requisite for eradicating a disease – no natural reservoir. Smallpox and (probably) polio do not have non-human reservoirs, therefore can b wiped out. Not true at all for corona viruses. Also, even smallpox was not wiped out by vaccination alone. Some fairly sophisticated methods of vaccinating a geographic/population area in rings around an index case were what finally beat the bug.


  11. Phil,

    Do you still have your CL short?

    Thanks


  12. ADR/Yodi – These guys have some experience.  That's what you want to look for.  https://www.alpinelawoffice.com/?s=adr

    /CL/Kgab – Yes, but they are /CLK21 and front-month is now /CLM21 so they have to be rolled.  Nice dip this morning so 4 short at avg $62.44 only down $2,500(ish) – nice improvement.


  13. Yodi- I am in the process of transferring from TDA to IB so need to see what IB can do on the CHL position before considering any further steps. 


  14. Money Talk Portfolio Review:  Nothing to do here since we don't touch it between shows.  I should be on next month.  Still, not touching it seems to work as we're up to $182,313 from $170,163 last month.  That's up $12,150 (7%) but what's crazy is we only had net $45,888 in positions, so the gain on our positions was more than 25% in a month!

    I did the detailed commentary last month and we had $43,500 left to gain so now only $31,000ish left to gain – have to do a big refresh on the next show.  It's not so bad though as we still only have $58,000 in positions so gaining $31,000 on them is not a bad year, is it?  

    Same as the LTP – just pick some diversified, nice, boring blue chips and use our options techniques to lever the upside.  


  15. Phil / CSC). – I have the following and looking to close out….   and pick up a '23 position – thoughts?  only 20% more to go… 

    50X Jan 22 $35 ( 7.1) / $45 (3.3) now at   

    Jan 22 $35 ( 18.1) / $45 (9.1). 


  16. Phil / CSCO). – I have the following and looking to close out….   and pick up a '23 position – thoughts?  only 20% more to go… 

    50X Jan 22 $35 ( 7.1) / $45 (3.3) now at   

    Jan 22 $35 ( 18.1) / $45 (9.1). 


  17. Yodi- for what it is worth- I just got off the phone with IB regarding my transfer from TDA and they tell me that it may take a few more days for the CHL position to transfer over as it is an ADR. The good news is they indicated that once the ADR's are received by IB I have the option of continuing to hold the ADR's or convert them to underlying shares which are readily tradeable on the Hong Kong exchange. The down side is IB charges a $500 fee to do the conversion plus there may be some other fees regarding the ADR itself. I neglected to ask them if the fee varied with the number of shares so your situation may be different. It seems to me that your funds can be readily recovered through IB using the conversion method rather than resorting to legal measures. I don't know if you have any familiarity with the US legal system but it can be a very expensive proposition. My experience is that legal action is absolutely the last resort if and only if all else fails. 


  18. W- today is OPEX for the April 320 callers and could be touch and go regarding in or out of the money by the closing bell. Will watch closely but, if necessary, what roll to you like?


  19. Earnings Portfolio Review:  $287,486 is DOWN $6,917 from our March 19th Review, so we have to consider that these positions may have run their course.  We only had $54,750 to gain and the good news is now we have $61,000 left to gain on $129,935 invested.  Actually, now that I'm looking at it, it's our SQQQ hedge that killed us, as it dropped net $17,000 on the rally – the hedge was too big for the portfolio!  That means the positions are good as they, in fact, made $9,000.  Like the LTP, we just need to start adding more longs to balance out and, fortunately, it's earnings season!

    Keep in mind the self-hedging in this portfolio is how we were able to play so aggressively this year and that's why we're up 187.8% – it's just not the kind of thing you can take your eye off.

    • SBUX – This was a leftover short call and now it's burning us.  SBUX is clearly way ahead of itself and should calm down on earnings so we're going to roll our 5 short April $92.50 calls at $25 ($12,500) to 10 short Sept $105 calls at $15 ($15,000) and, if SBUX has good earnings, we'll cover with a long spread like the 2023 $120 ($15)/140 ($7) bull call spreads at $8 and let's say we buy 20 for $16,000 and then we have our $40,000 spread half-covered by $15,000 worth of short, rollable calls.  The short calls had a $5,850 credit (ignoring what we already made on our longs) and this roll is another $2,500 credit so we'd be in the $40,000 spread for net $7,650 after being "forced" to flip from short to long.  Not the worst thing in the World.

    • HRB – Every year people forget about this stock until tax season, then they buy it again.  Not worth buying back but it's time to buy new things, so let's clear the spot.  
    • IRBT – This is a $70,0000 spread and currently net $65,000.  Certainly doesn't seem risky to leave it but may as well drop $65,000 into our cash pile – I'm sure we can make more than 10% with it elsewhere.

    • PETS – Disappointing that they failed $35 but I still like them.  It's a $20,000 spread at net $7,500 so more likely I'd sell puts and widen the spread if they go lower than bail out.
    • SQQQ – $17 is our target so it's really a $70,000 hedge, currently at $19,000 so solid protection but, like the STP, it's prudent to take advantage of the low SQQQ price to roll our 2022 $10 calls at $2.85 ($28,500) to 100 of the 2023 $5 ($6)/17 ($3.10) bull call spreads at $2.90 so net $500 on the roll and we're $55,0000 in the money and can't lose on the spread unless the Nasdaq is quite a bit higher – which should pay us far more than the $19,500 we stand to lose.  At + 200%, we just leave the short Jan $30s to die – even for a 3x ETF, that's super-doubtful.
    • GILD – NO worried on this one.
    • HBI – Miles in the money.

    • INTC – Our Stock of the Year and obviously a keeper.  Net $18,000 on the $25,000 spread already (we started at net $2,750) – don't you love options?  
    • WBA – Another one I couldn't believe people weren't buying.  Net $20,000 out of $25,000 already.  

    So now we're about 70% CASH and looking for action…


  20. CSCO/Batman – The 50 Jan $35s are $18 and that's on a $10 spread so why not take it off the table and move to 100 2023 $45 ($10.25)/$57.50 ($4) bull call spread at $6.25?  That's $62,500 used out of $90,000 cashed and you are well-protected in your $125,000 spread by the short calls for a pullback but let's say it goes higher?  If CSCO goes above your target strike, that's about $50,000 more to the short calls while your spread goes $50,000 more in the money and you still have $27,500 in pocket for a rainy day and you can bump up another 100 long spreads and do a 1.5x roll to keep things in balance if you wish.  Otherwise, since the short Jan $45s still have $2.50 in premium, flat is a winner or down is a winner and up isn't too bad.  

    Legal/Pstas – I was simply suggesting a strongly worded letter to prompt action – not actually taking them to court!  

    W/Pstas – We sold Aug $300 calls in the LTP, I still think they will be below $300 after earnings (5/6). 


  21. Pstas, Now I filled in with IB a request to transfer the CHL shares. But I am not sure in respect to ADRs. Were your CHL shares already converted by TDA in to ADRs? 


  22. Yodi- Your CHL position in TDA is already ADR's. Since you have initiated a transfer to IB, then when that is complete you should then have the choice of continuing to hold CHL in the form of the current ADR (which is restricted) or request a conversion of the CHL ADR's to the underlying stock which can be traded in Hong Kong. Note that each ADR represents 5 underlying China Mobile shares.  By the way, the Hong Kong market symbol for China Mobile is 0941.HK. 


  23. Thanks Pstas you know more than I, tupping here in the dark. We will see what will happen in the next few days.

    Finished just about my rolling of short calls.


  24. pstas    thats what Schwab told me yesterday.  I also have to the end of the year to do something, so Im just going to sit it out for a while. Their fee for transfer is $100 


  25. Yodi- you can get a current quote for 0941.HK by typing in that symbol in the search box on Yahoo Finance. The recent price is 51.20 (in Chinese Yuan currency) which is converted to USD at 1 Yuan to .15 USD. So, the current price for China Mobile is $7.68 American multiplied by 5 for each ADR = $38.40 if my arithmetic is correct. My initial cost basis is approximately $30 , so I could sell at a small profit. 

    There are two remaining questions I have which I will pursue later. One, what about the dividend (which is why I entered the position)? I entered  in October , 2020 and show no dividend payment to my account. I just assumed the dividend was the usual quarterly payment but perhaps is is semi or annual? Perhaps the dividend was suspended at the time of trading restrictions went into effect? Just don't know. Will take some digging to find out. 

    The other issue is options. Part of my initial entry was a buy/write so I have/had an open putter and caller. These options transferred to IB but are listed as "null". Could be they are worthless now as the options are on the now restricted ADR's? Unknown. 


  26. CHL – it is 51.2 HKD, not yuan.


  27. Pstas CHL paid div every 3 month last div I received was 10 09 20 a good amount 1,300.00. So good question what happened to Jan. and April????


  28. RN273- right you are, thanks. Currency converts at 1 HKD to .13 USD so my potential gain is a bit more. 


  29. Aarg! I hate currency conversions. So my gain would be a less at 1 to .13.


  30. never count chicken before they hatch!!!


  31. 0941/Yodi – Making a nice move today!

    That's our net thing at PSW – we'll only refer to stocks by their numbers….

    0941/Stock – It's apparently November so be careful and don't wait too long.  If Biden doesn't change his mind before Congress breaks for Summer recess – I wouldn't risk it.

    0941/Pstas – Their own web site says ex-dividend date is May 3rd so all should be careful not to mess around during that period as it may disrupt your ownership.  


  32. 0941- still not at all clear what is going on with the dividend. You are correct , the site does show ex div date of May (https://www.chinamobileltd.com/en/ir/dividend.php) but that schedule indicates a semi-annual payment history yet Yodi posts that he had received quarterly dividend payments. Is the policy different for ADR's? If that is the case then conversion of the ADR's to 0941 prior to May record date is important to restart the dividend payments. 

    I have sent China Mobile an email asking for more info. They show a Hong Kong office address so do we have any members who could run over and knock on the door and ask some questions? :)


  33. Speaking of Dividends, I'll get to the Dividend and Butterfly Portfolios over the weekend. 

    In the Butterfly Portfolio, DIS and AMZN have expiring options:

    AMZN Long Call 2023 20-JAN 3,300.00 CALL [AMZN @ $3,395.73 $16.64] 6 1/15/2021 (644) $330,000 $550.00 $53.90 $550.00     $603.90 $1.72 $32,340 9.8% $362,340
    AMZN Short Call 2023 20-JAN 3,800.00 CALL [AMZN @ $3,395.73 $16.64] -6 1/15/2021 (644) $-238,200 $397.00 $6.45     $403.45 - $-3,870 -1.6% $-242,070
    AMZN Short Call 2021 16-APR 3,300.00 CALL [AMZN @ $3,395.73 $16.64] -4 1/20/2021 (0) $-70,000 $175.00 $-80.13     $94.88 $15.88 $32,050 45.8% $-37,950
    AMZN Short Put 2021 16-APR 2,600.00 PUT [AMZN @ $3,395.73 $16.64] -2 1/15/2021 (0) $-9,500 $47.50 $-47.49     $0.02 $-0.02 $9,497 100.0% $-3
    DIS Long Call 2023 20-JAN 170.00 CALL [DIS @ $186.85 $0.92] 75 1/14/2021 (644) $262,500 $35.00 $2.08 $35.00     $37.08 $0.39 $15,563 5.9% $278,063
    DIS Short Call 2023 20-JAN 200.00 CALL [DIS @ $186.85 $0.92] -75 1/14/2021 (644) $-180,000 $24.00 $-0.45     $23.55 $0.10 $3,375 1.9% $-176,625
    DIS Short Put 2021 16-APR 150.00 PUT [DIS @ $186.85 $0.92] -10 1/14/2021 (0) $-3,400 $3.40 $-3.40     $0.01 $-0.01 $3,395 99.9% $-5
    DIS Short Call 2021 16-APR 160.00 CALL [DIS @ $186.85 $0.92] -30 1/14/2021 (0) $-58,500 $19.50 $7.35     $26.85 $1.00 $-22,050 -37.7% $-80,550

    AMZN – We will pay off the April $3,300 calls and earnings are soon so we'll just sell 2 (1/3) of the June $3,500 calls for $106 ($21,200) and 2 June $3,100 puts for $47 ($9,400) and hopefully we stay in range but, if not, no big deal to roll the loser.  

    We're up $41,000 on the short April puts and calls and that was only our first sale on the net $12,300 spread – how cool is that with 18 more months to sell?  

    DIS – Badly burned on the short April calls but at least the puts go worthless.  Earnings May 13th and I still think they don't stay over $200 so let's roll the 30 short April $160 calls at $27 to ($81,000) to 40 of the June $170 calls at $20 ($80,000) and we'll sell 10 Jan $165 puts for $9.10 ($9,100) to make some cash for the next roll.


  34. That DIS trade, by the way, was net $20,600 and we played for the $170/200 range and get paid $225,000 over $200 so being "burned" by our short calls for a $22,050 loss is a very minor inconvenience if we're being burned because the stock keeps going up, right?  


  35. Have a great weekend folks,

    - Phil


  36. All interesting information, let us persue the CHL matter next week

    All have a nice week end.


  37. CHL pays dividend twice a year, not quarterly. 


  38. I received 2020  div payments  from CHL in July and Oct.


  39. rn273 due you have shares in CHL as well?


  40. CHL-Wouldn't you get the dividends either way ADR or HK stock?


  41. At present CHL stock or ADR have gone up in thin air by TDA. Would be pleased to see the stock first


  42. Yodi- yes, I have held CHL for some time. Many Asian companies pay an interim dividend and a final dividend within a few months of each other. So the only dividend payments were in July and October. No other payments in the year. 


  43. Phil / CSCO – thanks…. I ended up taking a slightly smaller position on the spread the short puts….  but got out of the longs…


  44. I will investigate  CHL in my fidelity 401k account next week    I have shares that were covered bought covers back when this all started  they show zero for the value at this time hopefully have some info next week


  45. IBK has successfully converted my CHL ADR to regular shares.  Took less than a week.  I pulled them in from TDA/TOS.


  46. CHL-this is what I got from Fidelity but haven't called yet.  I think somebody posted more info on Fidelity previously.

     

    For the ADRs, it is best to talk with our International Trading desk. They can assist with the conversion and also answer questions about the options application.
    Their number is (800) 544-2976


  47. PHarm- thx for the update. My TDA a/c  is transferred except for the CHL ADR's- still waiting for those to appear. I will make the same conversion then. 

    Just curious, are you going to hold China Mobile or sell?


  48. pstas…going to hold the shares for now.  Might start a slow migration over….have not decided yet.


  49. Pharm/CHL-was thinking the same thing.  The original premise was this does more to hurt US citizens than the Chinese so why wouldn't Biden reverse it as a bargaining chip.  It's not a priority for him it may take a while, but the clock is ticking and you have no indication.  The company is definitely undervalued at 30.


  50. $1000 in DOGE coin bought in May 2015 could've been sold yesterday (Saturday) for $4.5M


  51. CHL/Everyone – Couple of things:

    1. CHL does 2 dividends per year; 1 declared in May/June, the other in August/September.  This has been the case for years. 

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0941.HK/history?period1=946857600&period2=1618704000&interval=div%7Csplit&filter=div&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true

    2. IB told me that a couple of months ago that they no longer accept the CHL ADR as a transfer, which is why I converted my ADRs in my TD account.  Sounds like IB is giving different messaging, so just beware out there.

    3. This is more about sharing the drama than anything else, because no one else has this problem…The CHL in my TD account is in a self-directed 401k account.  My ADRs have been converted to the underlying security, 0941.HK.  Voya, my 401k custodian, left me a message Friday afternoon stating that foreign securities are not allowed in my 401k, and therefore they can not be transferred out of TD and into IB.   Yes, I already have a foreign security in my account, and they've told me before that they don't care what I do in my TD account.  And, IB says they will only accept the foreign security.  So, the struggle continues.  Can't wait until Monday to make more phone calls!!