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Closely Watched Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast for Third Quarter Cut by 63 Percent Since August

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Real GDP Estimate for Third Quarter

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

The closely watched Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast  for real GDP growth for the third quarter has been slashed by 63 percent since August 2 when the forecast was for 6.3 percent growth. The forecast now stands at a dismal 2.3 percent growth rate as of 7:30 a.m. (EDT) this morning. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast could be revised further today after the 10:00 a.m. release of the International Trade and ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. (The GDPNow update typically occurs within a few hours of a new data release.)

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is the seasonally adjusted annual rate. It comes with the following caveat:

“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter….”

The U.S. is a consumer-based economy with consumer spending representing approximately two-thirds of GDP growth. Taking the pulse of the consumer is thus an important gauge of what might be ahead for the U.S. economy.


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