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Friday’s Failure – Market is Still on the Road to Nowhere

Still on that road to nowhere.  

Last Friday and the Friday before that, our bounce chart has looked like this:

  • Dow  36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong) 
  • S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong) 
  • Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)

Warren buffet | Tony Evans - TokyoSadly, these are the bounce lines from our December highs, so we've been going nowhere for over 2 months now and that is NOT a bullish sign.  It is, however, a sensible sign as these are lines off the top and the top was RIDICULOUS and that's why they call it a "correction" and not a "mistake" – the market is simply pulling back to a more realistic level.  That's why our rolling strategy is so important and I went over that with our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room as there's no sense in going through these pullbacks if you are not going to take avantage of them, is there?  

As with our 5% Rule™, our Bounce Lines are not TA – they are just math.  The simply illustrate the 5% Rule™ for the indexes in shorthand, so we have a quick referral to see if we should be placing bullish or bearish bets.  The Bounce Chart keeps us from getting suckered into these silly market gyrations and keeps us focused on our jobs, which is to make money selling premium!   

That's why, in this choppy market, both our Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios are doing well – we are Being the House – NOT the Gambler.  There are lots of people who are willing to pay a large premium to bet the market will go up and lots of people willing to pay a premium betting the market will go down – SO LET THEM!  We don't have to be those people – we can just sit back and take their money in either direction – like a casino.

We do make our own "bets" that some stocks will be winners but, as a fundamental investor, I prefer to think of them as investments, not gambles.  That's why our strategy employs a lot of Blue Chip stocks and we don't spend a lot of time with penny stocks, IPOs or momentum trades – they are more of a distraction than anything else.  When a stock becomes unpredictable and erratic – we simply stop playing it but Amazon (AMZN) is a good example of a stock we used to stay away from and now we like to play it.  

AMZN is in our Butterfly Portfolio and our position is:

AMZN Long Call 2023 20-JAN 3,300.00 CALL [AMZN @ $3,180.07 $0.00] 6 1/15/2021 (343) $330,000 $550.00 $-213.60 $239.78     $336.40 $0.00 $-128,160 -38.8% $201,840
AMZN Short Call 2023 20-JAN 3,800.00 CALL [AMZN @ $3,180.07 $0.00] -6 1/15/2021 (343) $-238,200 $397.00 $-231.80     $165.20 $0.00 $139,080 58.4% $-99,120
AMZN Short Put 2022 14-APR 3,000.00 PUT [AMZN @ $3,180.07 $0.00] -2 12/21/2021 (62) $-17,200 $86.00 $0.60     $86.60 $0.00 $-120 -0.7% $-17,320
AMZN Short Call 2022 20-MAY 3,300.00 CALL [AMZN @ $3,180.07 $0.00] -2 2/4/2022 (98) $-33,000 $165.00 $-5.52     $159.48 $0.00 $1,105 3.3% $-31,895

We have the $300,000 Jan $3,300/3,800 bull call spread that we bougth for $92,000 and we originally sold the April $3,700 calls and we bought those back for a $19,610 profit and now we've have the short April $3,000 puts that we sold for $17,200 and the short May $3,300 calls we sold for $33,000.  Should AMZN stay around $3,200 – they will all expire worthless and our net on the $300,000 spread will be reduced to $22,190 and we would still have 7 more months to sell puts and calls while we wait or we could simply close that particular casino game (current net of the bull call spread is $102,700 and move on to the next opportunity.  

The key to a good Butterfly Play for us is that the stock is generally range-bound but, within that range – it's volatile enough to attract a lot of speculation on either side – like a casino game that offers seemingly attractive odds.  Of course I say "seemingly" becuse they are not attractive at all and neither are the odds we give our players.  On a roulette wheel, for example, the house pays 35 to 1 on a number bet but there are 36 numbers on the wheel so the odds are 1/36 (2.7%) against you and the players don't seem to mind but the players forget that there is also a 0 and sometime a 00 and each of those openings steal an additional 2.7% per spin

It doesn't seem like a big deal but, statistically, even with just one 0 on the wheel, the house is taking 5.4% of your money with each spin because, if you win, you are getting 94.6% of what you should but, if you lose, you lose 100%.  The longer you play, the more certain the house is of winning all your money.  That is why they buy you drinks and give you free rooms or even fly you to the casino – as long as you are willing to play – they are more than confident they will win – they are mathematically CERTAIN!

While you, as a player, might win because you get lucky and walk away before your luck turns – the house keeps spinning the wheel for all the players and, over a long enough period of time, statistics take their toll and the house KNOWS a roulette wheel will make them a $50,000 profit for every $1,000,000 that is bet on it.  That may seem like a lot but that's every bet, not every player so 10 people playing roulette making $100 bets are generating $1,000 per spin and figure 20 spins per hour 10 crowded hours a day is $200,000 per day of wagers so $10,000/day per table for the house – not bad.  

That's how our trades work too, you have to grind them out over time – they are not intended to make fast returns because our profits come from slow, dependable math – not luck.  Can we lose?  Yes because we may simply run into some bad luck.  In the AMZN play, if AMZN fell to $2,000, we would owe $200,000 to the short put player and our position would be wiped out – again, that's why we stick to Blue Chips, which hopefully won't fall like that but 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008 taught us that EVERY stock can fall like that – even at the same time.

So we also have our Short-Term Portfolio and it's full of hedges but hedges can't protect you from everything – we still need to not let ourselves get over-extended when things go against us, so be very careful of those downside commitments and keep plenty of cash on the sidelines – which is what any good casino does as well. 

Here's one we can play with.  Rocket Mortgage (RKT) was added to our Future is Now Portfolio as a Top Trade Alert on October 29th.  The stock has tanked on rate worries and a sharp slowdown in mortgage applications, but I do like them for the long haul.  Our current position is:

RKT Long Call 2024 19-JAN 13.00 CALL [RKT @ $12.21 $0.00] 25 11/1/2021 (707) $16,500 $6.60 $-3.19 $6.60     $3.41 $0.00 $-7,975 -48.3% $8,525
RKT Short Call 2024 19-JAN 20.00 CALL [RKT @ $12.21 $0.00] -25 11/1/2021 (707) $-10,000 $4.00 $-2.28     $1.72 $0.00 $5,700 57.0% $-4,300
RKT Short Put 2024 19-JAN 15.00 PUT [RKT @ $12.21 $0.00] -10 10/29/2021 (707) $-3,750 $3.75 $1.88     $5.63 $0.00 $-1,875 -50.0% $-5,625

So we have a $4,150 loss and we spent $2,750 initially so we can close the trade down for a $6,900 loss or we can spend $2.59 ($6,475) to roll the 2024 $13 calls to the $2024 $8 calls at $6 and we can recoup some of that outlay by selling 10 of the June $13.89 calls for $1.10 ($1,100).  That would leave us in what is now a $30,000 spread that is $10,000 in the money for net net $8,125.  Better to spend $3,975 to reposition the trade favorably than dump it for $6,900 and the fact that we can generate $1,100 using 126 of the 707 days we have to sell indicates that, even if the stock stays flat – we should be able to grind our way back to even.  

Not losing can be as good as winning!  

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. Good Morning

    SOFI started at BUY from BAMI    up 5%    be patient if you didnt get  in of the 2024 $10 puts     seeing $3.05 to $3.10 this morning    


  3. The bookies have it right.  Rams 38 Bengals 34  

     

    Should be a good show!  :)


  4. Good morning!  

    Rudy Havenstein, casual observer. on Twitter: "Batman gets it. #Transitory  https://t.co/1PT3EuL3jx" / Twitter

    Futures are off the lows so we'll just see how things play out. 

    It did not take a lot of volume to tank the market yesterday.  That's the primary danger here – any event that panics people could be catastrophic as there are no proper supports from buyers waiting for lower prices – not low enough, anyway.  

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Feb 11, 2022 451.34 450.33 449.30 450.17 450.17 3,079,062
    Feb 10, 2022 451.34 457.71 447.20 449.32 449.32 139,851,600
    Feb 09, 2022 455.22 457.88 455.01 457.54 457.54 92,589,900
    Feb 08, 2022 446.73 451.92 445.22 450.94 450.94 81,012,000
    Feb 07, 2022 449.51 450.99 445.85 447.26 447.26 84,472,900
    Feb 04, 2022 446.35 452.78 443.83 448.70 448.70 118,335,600

    Remember, as long as there is no news and light volume, automated buying by Companies, 401Ks and IRAs give the market a general up-trend but about 120M (on SPY) is the breaking point as sellers over that mark can't find enough automated buyers stupid enough to pay whatever the market is asking for on any given day.  

    FB bought $20Bn of their own stock last Q.  Their average volume is 28M and the price was $325 so $9Bn/day is trade and 60 trading days for the Q and FB bought 2 of those days, call it 3.5% but that's not the whole story because, NORMALLY, there are buyers and sellers so maybe 10% of the trading is marginal – people trying to buy more or sell more on any given day, driving prices up or down.  Taking that into account and FB was the marginal buyer of 35% of the traded stock and STILL the stock was in a downtrend – long before earnings.  

    FB also took a loss of 25% on that $20Bn – $5Bn of unrealized losses for a company that made $30Bn last year (and spent $20Bn of it buying their own stock???  That's criminal!).  

    Sadly, it's not criminal and it's not unique – in 2021, companies spent $1.234TN buying back their own stock – that's just completely insane and look at what happened in 2007, when companies also felt their shares were a bargain at record-highs.  

    /NG at $3.90 so going back to 4 long now.  

    Just remember, we only add to reduce the basis and we are dying to get back to 2!

    '


  5. Forgot my stats image:

    After Three Weeks Of Absence, Stock Buybacks Are Back... As Is VWAP  Dip-Buying - NXTmine


  6. Phil / GILD – Good Morning

    GILD getting close to the 60….. looking to sell some '24 putters on this one at about 10.xx ….   With a 4.6% yield I'm tempted to buy some 1K shares at 58 to 60 and sell some Jan '23 65 callers for 5 ish….  what do you think?  then do it again the following year…  Chart looks ugly still on this one though


  7. SOFI/Stock – $3.05 is still a good price but was an easy fill yesterday.  Frankly, rather than taking less than $3, I'd rather sell the 2024 $12.50 puts for $4.50 as that's still net $8 and you could just sell 20 ($9,000) and see how things go.  The overall obligation is lower ($18,000) but the target is not as much of a slam-dunk as $10 seems to be.  When we're bottom-fishing – we have to be fearful of a catalyst like that ruining the bargain so we have to move quickly – before others see it too.

    Consumer sentiment in a few minutes.  

    GILD/Batman – Guidance was a disappointment but, if you are a long-term value investor, that doesn't matter.  I think the dividend is nice but, if you REALLY want the stock, I'd rather sell 10 of the 2024 $62.50 (current price) puts for $10.25 ($10,250) and buy 30 of the 2024 $60 calls for $8 ($24,000) and sell 25 of the 2024 $75 calls for $3.20 ($8,000) and sell 10 of the June $65s for $2.50 ($2,500).  That's a net outlay of $3,250 on the $37,500 spread and your generating $2,500 using 126 out of 707 days so maybe 4 more sales like that pays $10,000, vs tying up $60,000 to get $5,500 dividend over the same period.  If the stock stays low, you get to own it anyway less what you make on short call sales and if the stock takes off – even if you have to buy back those 5 extra short calls for $10 – it's still only $5,000 out of $35,000 profit you'll make. 

    Hard to think of which way you'd rather have it go?  That means it's a great spread!

    We have GILD in the LTP but we bought it so long ago at such a good price that we don't care about this dip:

    GILD Long Call 2023 20-JAN 50.00 CALL [GILD @ $62.42 $0.63] 10 12/30/2020 (343) $12,590 $12.59 $0.79 $12.59     $13.38 $0.65 $785 6.2% $13,375
    GILD Short Call 2023 20-JAN 65.00 CALL [GILD @ $62.42 $0.63] -10 12/30/2020 (343) $-6,750 $6.75 $-2.58     $4.18 $0.13 $2,575 38.1% $-4,175
    GILD Short Put 2023 20-JAN 50.00 PUT [GILD @ $62.42 $0.63] -5 12/30/2020 (343) $-4,000 $8.00 $-5.59     $2.41 $-0.10 $2,795 69.9% $-1,205

    The move here would be to sell 5 puts and roll the 2023 $50s to the 2024 whatever we can with the price of the 5 short puts we just sold but we can't adjust every single position in the portfolio – we'll do a review next week when, hopefully, we'll have a bit more clarity on which bets we want to press.  


  8. LEVI / Phil     just saw someone sell 1500 Jan23 $22 puts for $2.75   net $19.25    cheaper than a pair of jeans.   Earnings January 26 looked good and

    I know you like the product 


  9. Phil: don't comment much but am a big fan and need to add more.  Wanted you to know that the Gold/SPX ratio has just crept above it's 200 day mva.  Hasn't done this since Oct 2020 and essentially a broader downtrend since 2012.  Not sure if that will hit many people's radar but should be good for the Barrick position if it can sustain.


  10. /cl 91.50


  11. Russia,  Does anyone here think they will start a war? If so, what do we think it will do the markets.  Then would it be a buy the dip opportunity and what's on our watch list?





  12. us ten year almost 2.05 and /cl almost 92 wow.



  13. Feb. 11, 2022 10:02 AM ET12 Comments

    • February University of Michigan consumer sentiment61.7 vs. 67.5 expected and 67.2 prior.
    • "The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade," said Surveys of Consumers Chief Economist Richard Curtin.
    • Expectations: 57.4 vs. 64.1 expected and 64.1 prior.
    • Current conditions: 68.5 vs. 72.0 prior.
    • Inflation expectations: 5.0% vs. 4.9%.
    • The recent declines signal the onset of sustained downturn in consumer spending, he said. "The depth of the slump, however, is subject to several caveats that have not been present in prior downturns: the impact of unspent stimulus funds, the partisan distortion of expectations, and the pandemic's disruption of spending and work patterns."
    • Higher inflation's impact on personal finance was cited by a third of the consumers surveyed; nearly half expected declines in their inflation-adjusted incomes during the year ahead.
    • On Thursday, the consumer price index rose 7.5% Y/Y in January, marking a 40-year high.

    COST -0.04%Feb. 11, 2022 10:02 AM ET7 Comments

    Food inflation shot up 7.4% in January on top of the 3.7% gain that was recorded in 2020. The higher prices have not peaked yet with the two-year monthly comparison rising sequentially all the way to +11.2% in January from a pace of just over 7% in July.

    Oppenheimer weighed in on the CPI report on Friday. The firm said the environment remains conducive to passing through higher costs with modest transitory headwinds in certain categories. While the high levels of inflation continue to represent potential negatives for food suppliers like Sysco (NYSE:SYY) and US Foods (NYSE:USFD), retailers like Albertsons Companies (NYSE:ACI), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kroger (NYSE:KR), Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ:SFM) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) could see a net positive impact from food inflation if things go right.

    "Going forward, we are closely watching for signs of consumer resistance amid headwinds from waning stimulus. Consistent with our deep dive on food inflation here, we expect elevated level of food inflation to last at least through 2022, and potentially longer, based on our review of historical cycles."

    Related: Inflation is soaring – watch these stocks for positive pricing impact

    Dig through all the mentions of "food inflation" in transcripts posted on Seeking Alpha.

    Feb. 11, 2022 10:43 AM ET2 Comments

    Goldman Sachs on Friday raised its outlook for Fed tightening this year, bumping up projected quarter-point hike to seven from five after the latest inflation data.

    Economist Jan Hatzius and team still predict three hikes in 2023 and the same terminal rate of 2.5%.

    The annual January CPI headline number came in at 7.5% and the market is pricing in a 50-basis-point hike in March.

    Goldman noted that the Fed has not had an intermeeting hike since 1994 and hasn't started a rate-hike cycle since the 1980s.

    "We see the arguments for a 50bp rate hike in March," Hatzius said. "The level of the funds rate looks inappropriate, and the combination of very high inflation, hot wage growth, and high short-term inflation expectations means that concerns about falling into a wage-price spiral deserve to be taken seriously."

    "We could imagine the FOMC concluding that even a meaningful risk of an outcome as serious as a wage-price spiral requires a more aggressive and immediate response," he added.

    BofA was the first to forecast seven hikes and argued things would be worse with zero.

    Worst consumer sentiment in 40 years not bothering the market too much – yet:

       
        

    10% worse Consumer Sentiment than expected with Expectations at 57.4% would be the worst since the 1980 reading if we hit it.  I thing this is a very wrong non-reaction so be careful.

    LEVI/Stock – This is certainly down where I like them but they were twice as likeable a year ago so no compelling reason to jump in when we need to first see how much money we need to adjust positions with.

    GOLD/Tgar – Well thanks for chiming in with a useful observation!   Could signal the move to $2,000 we've been expecting.   Doesn't make sense that it isn't over $2,000 with 7.5% inflaiton.

    Of course a pessimist would say Gold can stay where it is and the S&P could come down 10% instead.

    Russia/Stock – I think Putin is just using the Ukraine for leverage to get some concessions as he's looking at what kind of legacy he'll leave at this point (69 years old).  Our watch list is the stocks in our portfolios that need adjusting and I made a list a while ago but don't remember where.

    Oil/Tommy – Putin must have said something.  


  14. Pub beer sales plunge as Brits spend more time drinking at home


  15. Royal Caribbean Drops a Major Pandemic Rule



  16. Phil

    I agree on your SOFI premise and that it will bring much attention to the brand. Sometimes "winning"

    the naming rights can be a curse. It is kind of like overspending on a new headquarters building.

    Concinnus Financial Research Report: Do Stadium Naming Rights Align With Shareholder Best Interests?


  17. TMO and BDX 

    David Giroux is a true star pm at TRowe.  He has mentioned BDX and TMO recently as two of his favorites.  Looks like BDX is in the butterfly portfolio.  Any thoughts on TMO?


  18. Phil-AEM might be worth a look for gold. Just took over KL Kirkland Lake making it the third largest producer by output. Mining in Canada, Finland, Australia and Mexico. 


  19. AEm earnings 2/23


  20. Scoop: US and allies have new intel that suggests Russia could be planning to attack Ukraine prior to end of Olympics, contrary to previous assessments. New intel comes as officials have dramatically ramped up the urgency of public warnings related to Ukraine in past 24 hours.

    this from Natasha Bertrand  CNN reporter , posted on twitter


  21. Goodyear (GT) surpassed earnings significantly, but is 25% down due to inflation remarks. The says cash flow will be even this year, expectations were 471MM (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/goodyear-plunges-as-tiremaker-sees-inflation-pressures-in-2022)

    Phil – thinking of selling some puts.


  22. COOP up today on good earnings, might be an indicator for RKT 




  23. Naming/Randers – I agree, usually a total waste but since SOFI is "only" spending $30M/yr, this particularly year they are getting their money's worth and, for the stock, it should generate recognition this weekend and then a well-placed news story or two can get them moving.  Also, consider the type of business they have – the key to gaining customers is establishing banking credibility vs JPM/Chase, C, BAC, etc – and think how much owning a stadium helps that because the average person in CA (population 40M) and football fans around the country (about 120M will watch the superbowl) will all have the impression that SOFI is a major player – especially because that stadium is a state-of-the-art arena and will be heavily featured.  

    That's worth $30M!  

    TMO/Tgar – Same opinion as last month:

    Submitted on 2022/01/31 at 1:17 pm

    TMO/Nom – Good, reliable company but $575 freaks me out.  They are benefiting from Covid testing but this is $225Bn and they are making $9Bn but what worries me is 2019 was $3.7Bn and they were happily under $300.   Let's say they settle down around $6Bn at 20x – that's half of where they are now.  Split that baby and we're at $450 – still a dramatic drop.  You could take it off the table at $575 and, if you have FOMO, just agree to re-buy at $400 by selling 2024 $400 puts for $25 so now you've netted out for $600 and you have to re-buy for $400.  Then if the stock firms up over $600, you can use just just $75 to buy the 2024 $500 ($145)/650 ($70) bull call spreads and then you have $525 in cash and another $150 in upside.  

    BDX also overpriced.  

    AEM/Pirate – I agree, looks like a good value.  Hard to quantify with the merger but projections are they make $1Bn this year and the company is trading at just $21.4Bn so very reasonable with, of course, the upside potential of gold going up (but the danger of costs going up too).  I'd want to see earnings to get an idea of the combined operations moving forward and, of course, mergers can be messy so better safe than sorry in this situation.  

    Ukraine/Stock – Well the oil market certainly thinks so.

    GT/Rn – Do we have them?    Long-term, they are issues that will be resolved.  $16.25 is $6Bn in market cap and these guys make great money – usually.  

    Year End 31st Dec 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 TTM 2021E 2022E CAGR / Avg
    Total Revenue
    $m

    16,443 15,158 15,377 15,475 14,745 12,321 16,080 17,356 19,712 -5.61%
    Operating Profit
    $m

    1,030 1,520 1,179 1,261 453 -837 729      
    Net Profit
    $m

    307 1,264 346 693 -311 -1,254 274 508 817  
    EPS Reported
    $

    1.12 4.75 2.55 2.93 -1.33 -5.36 1.05      
    EPS Normalised
    $

    2.63 5.12 2.91 3.09 -0.777 -3.97 1.31 1.83 2.65  
    EPS Growth
    %

    -71.0 +94.9 -43.2 +6.05         +45.4  
    PE Ratio
    x

                16.7 11.9 8.19  
    PEG
     

                  0.262 0.385  
     

    I like them and especially down here because stocks under $20 can always be turned into income-producers which, as long as they don't go BK, is almost certain to make your money back over time.  For example:

    • Sell 10 GT 2024 $13 puts for $2.50 ($2,500) 
    • Buy 20 GT 2024 $13 calls for $6 ($12,000) 
    • Sell 15 GT 2024 $20 calls for $3.50 ($5,250) 

    That's net $4,250 on the $14,000 spread and I think $15 should be bouncy so I'd wait on selling short calls but the April $19s are 0.70 so selling 10 for $1 is $1,000 using 62 days out of 707 so, if you lay out $4,250 and can make 10 $1,000 sales – that's a nice ROI no matter what the stock does.

    If the stock were to drop to $10, then it would cost $5,000(ish) to roll down to the $8 calls but half of that could be paid for by selling 10 more puts and then you'd be in for about net $6,750 on the $8/20 spread with $24,000 upside potential.  As with GILD above – either way sounds great, so it's a good spread!  

    RKT/Stock – People don't get how that works.  Like bookies, the banks make money on the spreads – the rates don't matter that much.


  24. GILD – Thanks….  I had the '23 spread ( plus some stock as well an exited late last year early this year –  So was looking at the '24) ….   iv'e got several positions that I selling short term callers on and don't want to add another one…..  although this one would be more stable I think….   


  25. Image

    Image

    Corn???

    Carrots??

    Avocado??

    Tuna????

    You people are MONSTERS!!!

    Florida has no clue what a sausage pizza is supposed to taste like (or pizza in general).  And yes, Pepperoni clearly dominates.  I can't get over the corn thing, we lived close to PA and I've never heard of it.  

    Order Pizza for Delivery from Pizza Hut India

    No thanks!  

    At least this guy's trying:

    Corn Pizza Recipe - Weird Wild Pizza

    Image

    Oh no, IEA says oil market is tight and BOOM goes the dynamite!  

       

    Spiked to $94


  26. nothing like possible war to bring down the market


  27. And down goes everything else.

       

    Bad way to end the week that needed to be constructive – we're heading back to the lower bounce chart now:

    • Dow 36,000 to 28,800 would be a 7,200-point drop with 1,440 bounces to 30,240 (weak) and 31,680 (strong).  
    • S&P 4,800 is 20% above 4,000 and that makes it an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces so 4,160 (weak) and 4,320 (strong)
    • Nasdaq is using 13,500 as the base and we bottomed yesterday at 13,706.  14,100 is the weak bounce and 14,700 is strong.  
    • Russell 1,600, would be about an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces to 1,780 (weak) and 1,960 (strong).

    So far, only the Nas has been red.  We have to take another red very seriously if it happens.  The RUT briefly tested 1,960 at the lows (close) and the S&P as well with 4,320 but only the Nas has been below for 2 full days so far.

       

    "Cold and misty morning, I heard a warning borne in the air
    About an age of power where no one had an hour to spare
    Where the seeds have withered, silent children shivered in the cold
    Now their faces captured in the lenses of the jackals for gold
    I'll be there
    I'll be there
    I will be there
    " – ELP


  28. And that nice pop in /NG let us get out of our DD and now we have a basis of $3.90 on what's left.  It's the same way we move into a better position in options over time only it all happens in a couple of days.  

    So starting with 2 longs at $4, we DD  at $3.95 ($3.975 avg), back to 2 at $4 again (0.025 profit) so avg is $3.95 and then down to $3.90 and we DD ($3.925 avg) and back to $4 we take 0.075 profit off the table and avg is now $3.85 – even though /NG never hit $3.85.  Now we can set a stop at $3.90 and lock in a profit – even though we started at $4.

    That's very similar to what we do with our option adjustments – only we do it leg by leg and quarter by quarter – so it's not as exciting.


  29. pizza/phil – I must take you for pizza in Korea some time. Not only corn, but sweet potato slices.


  30. Sweet Potato/Snow – Not really selling it….

    And what happened to anchovies?  Good riddance but they were so popular in the 70s that you used to have to say "No Anchovies Please"

    INTC -0.84%Feb. 11, 2022 3:00 PM ET

    Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch – a breakdown of some of next week's actionable events that stand out. Check out Saturday morning's regular Stocks to Watch article for a full list of events planned for the week or the Seeking Alpha earnings calendar for companies due to report.

    Monday – February 14

    • Volatility watch - Options trading spiked higher again this week on Senseonics Holdings (NYSE:SENS) and Nxt-ID (NASDAQ:NXTD). Stocks generating strong interest on Reddit's WallStreetBets include Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) and Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z) on the heels of their earnings reports. On Stocktwits, Astra Space (NASDAQ:ASTR) is getting a lot of attention after its failed mission launch. Meanwhile, short interest positions are elevated on Bakkt Holdings (NYSE:BKKT) and Ring Energy (NYSE:REI) heading into the week.
    • All week - Notable conferences in the week ahead include the SVB Leerink 11th Annual Global Healthcare Conference, the BTIG Medical Technology, Digital Health, Life Science and Diagnostic Tools Conference and the Bank of America Securities Insurance Conference.
    • All day - Roth CH Acquisition III Co. (NASDAQ:ROCR) shareholders will vote on the deal to take utilities infrastructure-services provider QualTek public in a SPAC deal. QualTek provides infrastructure services to wireless, telecom and renewable-energy companies across North America.
    • All day - The IPO lockup period for a block of Freshworks (NASDAQ:FRSH) shares will expire. Analysts think the lockup wildcard is acting as a near-term overhang for shares.
    • 9:00 a.m. Millicom International Cellular SA (NASDAQ:TIGO) will hold an Investor Day event.
    • 9:00 a.m. 3M Company (NYSE:MMM) is scheduled to hold a strategic update event. The company plans to discuss how its fundamental strengths are leveraged across businesses to create value along with updates on strategic priorities, growth trends, capital allocation priorities and sustainability. The company will also provide its full-year financial outlook for 2022 and hold a question-and-answer session. Shares of 3M rallied more than 10% in the six weeks after it held a similar event.

    Tuesday – February 15

    • All day - Astrea Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ:ASAX) shareholders will meet to vote on the SPAC deal to take HotelPlanner and Reservations.com public. The combined company will keep the HotelPlanner name after consummation of the merger and forecasts 2022 revenue of about $170M, as well as three-year revenue CAGR of around 42%.
    • All day - Healthcare Capital Corp (NASDAQ:HCCC) shareholders will meet to vote on the SPAC merger to take oncology therapeutics company Alpha Tau Medical public in a deal value at $1B. Landenburg Thalmann initiated coverage on Healthcare Capital Corp. with a Buy rating ahead of the SPAC approval vote. The firm's price target implied more than 80% upside for Alpha Tau Medical.
    • All day - Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) will hold an all-hands employee meeting during which a major announcement is anticipated on how the company plans to realize its metaverse vision. The event could attract more attention to the Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (NYSEARCA:METV). Also watch AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) if there is a capex spending surprise.
    • All day - The M&A calendar includes the tender offer expiring on the Oracle (NYSE:ORCL)-Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN) deal and a UK court hearing involving the Ortho Clinical Diagnostics (NASDAQ:OCDX)-Quidel (NASDAQ:QDEL) merger.
    • 8:00 a.m. Allakos (NASDAQ:ALLK) is scheduled to hold an Investor Day event. The company will discuss data from the Phase 3 Enigma 2 and the Phase 2/3 Kryptos studies, as well as next steps in the lirentelimab development program and other Allakos pipeline programs.
    • 9:00 a.m. Otis Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:OTIS) will discuss the company's strategic initiatives and multi-year financial outlook at an investor day event.
    • 10:00 a.m. The U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban affairs will conduct an open hearing entitled, "Examining the President's Working Group on Financial Markets Report on Stablecoins. The question on if a stablecoin could "break the buck" under duress and threaten financial stability is one of the concerns being looked at. The largest stablecoins by market cap are Tether (USDT-USD), USD Coin, Binance USD (BNB-USD), TerraUSD (UST-USD) and Dai (DAI-USD). The hearing could also have implications for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD).
    • 2:15 p.m. The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing and then vote on the nomination of Federal Chair Jerome Powell nomination, as well a slate that includes Lael Brainard, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson.
    • Postmarket - Watch Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST), Toast (NYSE:TOST) and Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) for volatility after their earnings reports are released. Options trading suggests double-digit moves up or down of 15% for all three stocks after the reports drop. All three stocks fell more than 10% the last time the companies reported earnings.

    Wednesday – February 16

    • All day - Nu Skin Enterprises (NYSE:NUS) is scheduled to provide financial guidance at its investor day event. The discussion will also delve into details on the company's personalized beauty and wellness product strategy and evolving social commerce go-to-market business model.
    • All day - IPO lockup periods expire on Sweetgreen (NYSE:SG) and UserTesting (NYSE:USER) for certain blocks of shares. Shares of Sweetgreen are up 12% from where the restaurant chain's IPO was priced and UserTesting is off more than 35% from its IPO pricing level.
    • All day - Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) is scheduled to hold an earnings conference call. The theme park company is the subject of M&A speculation and increased activist investor actions. Shares of Cedar Fair are up 20% over the last week.
    • 2:00 p.m. The release of FOMC minutes will catch more attention than normal amid the intense speculation over the Fed's policy moves with the pace and size of rate hikes, as well as the the thinking on quantitative easing timing. While analysts have noted that some of the information in the minutes release will be considered stale, they note it will still be used to project the hawkish vs. dove tones of voting FOMC members.
    • Postmarket - Watch Matterport (NASDAQ:MTTR), DoorDash (NYSE:DASH), QuantumScape (NYSE:QS), Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR), Global E Online (NASDAQ:GLBE) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) for big post-earnings moves. Options trading suggests double-digit moves up or down for shares of those companies following the earnings releases. Last earnings season, Matterport had the biggest move of the bunch with a 14% drop following earnings.

    Thursday – February 17

    • All day - Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) will be closely watched with CEO Pat Gelsinger and other leaders scheduled to discuss the company's business strategy.
    • All day - The American Society of Clinical Oncology Genitourinary Cancers Symposium will include data presentations from notable healthcare companies like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Veracyte (NASDAQ:VCYT) and AstaZenecaa (NASDAQ:AZN).
    • All day - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester are scheduled to give speeches. Both are on the hawkish side of the FOMC dove-hawk spectrum.
    • Premarket - Walmart's (NYSE:WMT) earnings report will cast a huge shadow over the retail sector. Suppliers Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM), Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC), B&G Foods (NYSE:BGS) and Jakks Pacific (NASDAQ:JAKK) all move in tandem with Walmart on earnings day more than 85% of the time.
    • 9:00 a.m. Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) will hold a conference call to give an update on the Vision 2025 strategy as part of a comprehensive investor day event. The company's read on the pricing environment could impact other stocks in the packaging and containerboard sector.
    • 10:00 a.m. Allegheny Technologies (NYSE:ATI) will hold an investor day event. Updates are expected on the company's strategy, markets, operations and long-term financial outlook. Shares of ATI are up 44% YTD.

    Friday – February 18

    • All day - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans and New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams are scheduled to give speeches. Both are on the dovish side of the FOMC dove-hawk spectrum.
    • 10:00 a.m. Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) will conduct its investor day, which will include a strategic business update.

    UAA -12.64%Feb. 11, 2022 2:29 PM ET4 Comments

    Under Armour (UAA -12.5%) took a tumble on Friday after the company warned supply chain issues could linger this spring and potentially into the summer. The disclosure took some of the shine off a strong Q4 earnings report that topped analyst expectations.

    North America revenue increased 15% to $1.1B and international revenue increased 3% to $461M. Within the international business, revenue increased 24% in EMEA, decreased 6% in Asia-Pacific and fell off 22% in Latin America.

    During the UAA conference call, execs maintained that the supply chain issues are transitory.

    "We believe these COVID-related supply chain pressures are just a temporary speed bump on our road to continued profitable growth over the long term," noted Under Armour CFO Dave Bergman on the call.

    The company said it plans to remain agile until the backdrop improves.

    Analyze the UAA earnings report in detail.

    Dig into the Under Armour earnings call transcript.

    ADBE -3.20%Feb. 11, 2022 2:25 PM ET6 Comments

    Shares of design software heavyweight Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) have dropped significantly in recent months, due largely to a 2022 revenue forecast that fell short of Street expectations. With a 30% retreat since late November, does the discounted price make the stock a buy?

    Adobe Tempers Expectations for 2022

    ADBE has suffered a notble decline along with the rest of the market in the past two and a half months. Since the end of November, Adobe shares have tumbled nearly 30%, compared with the S&P 500 index, which has risen approximately 2%. Year-to-date, Adobe is down 8%, while the S&P index has slid 4%.

    The stock is also trading at the lower end of its 52-week range, closing at $495.02 on Thursday. Shares hit a high of $699.54 on Nov. 22 and a low of $420.78 on March 8 of last year.

    While overall market weakness has contributed to the decline, ADBE's slide also stems from 2022 guidance it released in conjunction with its Q4 earnings report on Dec. 16. The forecast fell significantly below analyst estimates, Adobe saying that it was expecting revenue of $17.9B for 2022. Analysts had forecasted a figure closer to $18.2B. The company’s Q1 2022 revenue outlook of $4.23B also fell short, with analysts expecting $4.36B.

    Adobe’s outlook was quickly followed by a flurry of price target reductions. Jefferies lowered its target to $680 from $760, Credit Suisse dropped its target to $625 from $700, Deutsche Bank to $715 from $770, and BofA Securities to $640 from $720.

    Lingering concerns about growth also prompted UBS to downgrade Adobe to Neutral from Buy in early January and cut its price target to $575 from $635.

    UBS said it downgraded the stock after speaking with over a dozen large enterprise IT executives and Adobe service partners about their spending plans for the company’s products in 2022. Most of the executives said their organizations had pulled forward spending on Adobe products into 2021 due in part to more employees working at home during the pandemic.

    The prospect of these potential headwinds drove the massive decline suffered over the last few months. However, has the stock fallen enough to become a buying opportunity?

    Is ADBE a Buy?

    Despite the price target reductions, Wall Street analysts, on average, still have a Buy rating on the stock. Of the 31 analysts tracked by SA over the past 90 days, 17 rated Adobe a Strong Buy, 8 a Buy, and 6 a Hold. None rated the stock a Sell. SA authors also saw the stock as a buy, on average.

    Seeking Alpha's Quant Ratings, however, view the stock as a hold. While the company earned an A+ for profitability, it received a C+ for momentum, a D+ for growth and a D- for valuation.

    In comparison, several of Adobe’s competitors, lie Salesforce.com, Intuit, SAP, Atlassian, and Dassault Systemes, also have a Quant Rating of hold.

    For a bullish view on Adobe, read SA contributor Geoff Considine’s “Adobe Looks Attractive After Share Price Decline.” For a bearish view, see SA contributor Mott Capital Management’s “Shares of Adobe May Have Significant Downside Risk.”

    NOC +3.73%Feb. 11, 2022 2:22 PM ET38 Comments

    Major defense stocks including Northrop Grumman (NOC +3.9%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT +2.9%) are flying higher after the Biden administration warned that Russia could potentially launch an invasion of Ukraine "any day now."

    Also: LHX +2.8%GD +1.3%.

    "We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border," U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at a White House briefing, adding that he does not think Vladimir Putin has made a final decision.

    "The market has been concerned about this outcome for several weeks but most believed it would not occur or would at least be after the Olympics," CIBC Private Wealth's Rebecca Babin told CNBC.

    The U.K. has advised British nationals to leave Ukraine immediately.

    Lockheed Martin's "consistently increasing dividend distributions are an attractive part of the returns offered by the stock," Yiannis Zourmpanos writes in an analysis posted recently on Seeking Alpha.


  31. PFE -0.44%Feb. 11, 2022 2:17 PM ET14 Comments

    • mRNA COVID-19 vaccine boosters from Pfizer (PFE -0.5%)/BioNTech (BNTX +1.6%) and Moderna (MRNA +1.4%) become less effective after four months, but still provide significant protection against hospitalization, a CDC study found.
    • While vaccine efficacy was still strong two months after a booster shot, it declined significantly after four months.
    • Efficacy against emergency department visits and hospitalization was, respectively, 87% and 91%, after two months. After four months, those figures dropped to, respectively, 66% and 78%.
    • Researchers said the results suggest that additional boosters may be needed.
    • "The finding that protection conferred by mRNA vaccines waned in the months after receipt of a third vaccine dose reinforces the importance of further consideration of additional doses to sustain or improve protection against COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters and COVID-19 hospitalizations," they wrote.
    • Read why Seeking Alpha contributor Shock Exchange considers Moderna a sell.

    AMD -7.49%Feb. 11, 2022 1:53 PM ET42 Comments

    Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell sharply on Friday, declining more than 10% from their peak on Wednesday, as tech stocks sold-off sharply for the second day in a row on inflation fears and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

    Shortly before 2 p.m. EST, AMD shares were down more than 8% to $115.36, after hitting $132.60 on Wednesday, following a strong earnings report last week. More than 92 million shares had changed hands, compared to an average daily volume of just over 69 million shares.

    Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which reports earnings next week, also saw its shares fall in sympathy, losing more than 5% to $244.31 in mid-Friday trade.

    This week, AMD received clearance to buy Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) after it received all the necessary regulatory approvals, including from the U.S.

    Earlier this month, AMD said it earned $0.80 per share on $4.8 billion in revenue for the quarter ended in December, which topped analysts' estimates for a profit of $0.76 a share on sales of $4.52 billion.

    AMD (AMD) also said its gross margins, a closely watched measure for semiconductor companies, reached 50% in the quarter, up 5% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, driven by a "richer product mix."

    For its first quarter, AMD (AMD) said it expects revenue to be between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion, up roughly 45% year-over-year and 4% sequentially, with non-GAAP gross margins of 50.5%. For all of 2022, AMD expects sales to be $21.5 billion, a jump of 31% over 2021, with non-GAAP gross margins of approximately 51%.

    Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson said AMD's results, and management commentary, show a company that provided "zero red flags" for investors and is staving off its top rival, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

    NFLX -4.08%Feb. 11, 2022 1:46 PM ET9 Comments

    • Several Marvel Entertainment series on Netflix (NFLX -4.2%) are set to exit the service at month's end, suggesting that Marvel owner Disney (DIS -1.3%) is ready to bring them home onto its own streaming services.
    • A number of shows that marked Marvel's first big move into TV series (via premieres on Netflix) have a message on Netflix indicating the last day to watch is Feb. 28, including Daredevil, Jessica Jones, The Punisher, Defenders, Luke Cage and Iron Fist.
    • Other Marvel series have no such message: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. and an animated X-Men seem likely to continue on Netflix for now.
    • Disney+ has launched a number of Marvel series in the past 18 months, including WandaVision, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Loki, What If, and Hawkeye.
    • It's not clear where the Netflix series will go, whether to Disney+ or Hulu (DIS -1.3%CMCSA -1.5%) – which has generally been the home of grittier, more grown-up fare in line with the tones of the Netflix series.

    SCHW -3.18%Feb. 11, 2022 1:34 PM ET3 Comments

    This year's stress tests conducted by the Federal Reserve Board will analyze large banks to determine if they have enough capital to continue operating if the economy should sour. All banks operating in the U.S. with over $100B in assets are required to participate. This year is the first year in which Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) is required to take part.

    The Fed will subject 34 large banks to its 2022 stress test, using a range of hypothetical scenarios. In the severely adverse scenario, the U.S. unemployment rate rises 5.75 percentage points to a peak of 10% over two years.

    That scenario also envisions a global recession with heightened stress in commercial real estate prices and corporate debt markets. Specifically, banks will be tested for how they would weather a 40% drop in commercial real estate, widening corporate bond spreads, and collapsing asset, as well as increased market volatility.

    The scenarios "appear modestly worse" but are based on a higher starting point than the 2021 tests, wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden in a note to clients. In addition, "the Fed appears to be putting more stress on all components of the test, from markets, to corporates and consumers."

    Jefferies analyst Ken Usdin considers the scenarios similar in severity vs. '21 scenarios, with different starting points. And Evercore ISI's Glenn Schorr explained it this way: "At first glance seemed slightly negative, but not a major surprise given a stronger macroeconomic backdrop vs. '21."

    The international stress component appears to be less than last year's, said Goldman's Ramsden.

    Overall, Schorr doesn't expect the stress test results to significantly change stock buyback expectations. Neither does he see capital constraints limiting lending activities. "However, we are keeping an eye on capital cushions and potential AOCI impacts from higher rates," Schorr wrote.

    Jefferies' Usdin will be watching for rising global systemically important bank buffers and "bulky supplemental leverage ratio denominators," as "SLR has become more binding for some of the largest banks."

    Banks with large trading operations will also be tested against a global market shock component that primarily stresses their trading positions. In addition, banks with substantial trading or custodial operations will be tested against the default of their largest counterparty.

    Banks subject to both the global market shock and counterparty default tests, in addition to the regular stress test scenarios, are: Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Barclays (NYSE:BCS) US, Citigroup (NYSE:C), Credit Suisse Holdings (USA) (NYSE:CS), Deutsche Bank's (NYSE:DB) U.S. unit, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) North America Holdings, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

    Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) and State Street (NYSE:STT) will be subject to the counterparty default test in addition to the standard hypothetical scenarios.

    Banks taking the standard stress test scenarios are Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), American Express (NYSE:AXP), BMO Financial (NYSE:BMO), BNP Paribas USA (OTCQX:BNPQF) (OTCQX:BNPQY), Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG), Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB), MUFG Americas Holdings (NYSE:MUFG), Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS), PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), RBC US Group (NYSE:RY), Santander Holdings USA (NYSE:SAN), TD Group US (NYSE:TD), Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC), UBS Americas (NYSE:UBS), and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB).

    Last year, all 23 banks cleared minimum risk levels set by the Fed

    INTC -0.84%Feb. 11, 2022 1:29 PM ET9 Comments

    Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) said on Friday that it was launching a new microprocessor for blockchain applications, including Bitcoin mining and creating non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, as it looks to compete with the likes of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) in the space.

    The new chips, which are comprised of the Bonanza Mine ASCIs, will be used by a number of customers this year, including Block (NYSE:SQ), Argo Blockchain and GRIID Infrastructure.

    "We are mindful that some blockchains require an enormous amount of computing power, which unfortunately translates to an immense amount of energy," Raja Koduri, Senior Vice President General Manager, Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics Group, wrote in a blog post.

    "Our customers are asking for scalable and sustainable solutions, which is why we are focusing our efforts on realizing the full potential of blockchain by developing the most energy-efficient computing technologies at scale," Koduri added.

    Intel shares were down slightly more than 0.5% to $48.57 in mid-day trading on Friday.

    The chip will be available later this year and Intel has created a new segment for these chips, known as Custom Compute Group, housed inside of its Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics unit.

    Last month, Seeking Alpha reported that Intel would unveil a chip used for Bitcoin mining.

    Earlier this week, Citi said Intel had gained some market share in the overall microprocessor market, but had lost ground to AMD in the all-important server market.

    Good time to get in.


  32. Oh my gosh – 14,200.  14,100 is the weak bounce line.  

    Good data week next week.  Nothing Monday (Valentine's Day heart) but PPI, Empire State – Retail Sales, Industrial Production – Housing Data, Philly Fed and we finish Friday with Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators, which have been a global issue and perhaps we'll catch up (or down, as the case may be)

    RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert2) / Twitter

    This is what I mean when I say "Stop the markets, we want to get off!" – Good time to take a break – hopefully things don't get worse over the weekend.

    Have a great weekend folks,

    - Phil


  33. Wow, SPRW going all in on consumer.   TTE already owns half the company so they are paying $310M for the other half.  SPWR's total income this year was projected to be $35M so $250M now and $60M over time should help.  $16 is trading at a $2.7Bn market cap though, of course, this will ding commercial revenues so forward earnings will not be as strong until they fill the gap with consumer.  

    TTE is still a good one under $60 as that's $155Bn but they made $16Bn last year and expect growth.  We played them when they were lower, but cashed out already.


  34. Maybe it's not time to buy bonds. But if there's too much red around, BBN (taxable) is -17% since mid September and yields 6.55%. Non-taxable MQY currently yields 5.19%.


  35. /NG 4% gap up.  Lovely.