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How Bad Is 2022? Is There an End in Sight?

 

How Bad Is 2022? Is There an End in Sight?

Coutesy of Howard Lindzon

One Month ago I wrote ‘The End of Fomo‘. The gist:

The last twelve to 18 months was a FOMO era.

They will say that inflation and interest rates killed this great market run, but as someone watching and writing about investing every day here I knew it was going to be supply. Supply is a bitch.

I have been pretty conservative but it still has been a brutal six months for anything I own or like in software.

Now the media will hop on how bad it is because the ‘bear market meme’ is just getting started.

As a stock investor it is easy…stop buying.

As a seed investor the last 12 months have been a lot of work to sit on my hands as I say no to high prices.

As a seed investor with 85 percent of our fund 4 to invest in software startups, I say hell yes…hit me up (but have a look at stock prices first before you mention your valuation).

This is a GREAT time to have cash and be investing or an entrepreneur

In 2006 VC’s had too much power.

In Facebook era…founders had too much power

In most recent era…too much liquidity created an environment of sloppy founders and investors.

This reset was due and if the FOMO era is indeed over, I am thrilled.

Since the post, the losses have accelerated for technology stocks.

As of yesterday’s close, the Nasdaq 100 is down over 14 percent for the year.

That is not bad compared to most of the stocks in the index. Have a look at some of the past leaders compared to the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ):

There is little panic. The selloff in technology stocks is still orderly. I have NO IDEA what a bottom looks like in a non panic relentless selloff.

The macro narrative is not good.

Looking back at past selloffs is the best I can do right now. The last time the Nasdaq had two months this bad was 2008:

Back in 2008 it took another four months of hell before we got a good bottom.

Hopefully this helps give you some context as we head into a long weekend.

Have a great one.


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