Monday Market Movement – Holding Up Well After the Fed


So far, so good.  

SPX Feb 6 2023

We’re past the Fed but we’re heading into the two busiest weeks of Earnings Season and next week we have Options Expirations so it should be interesting, to say the least.  Though a lot of companies have been missing – traders have been in a generally forgiving mood other than, notably, the energy sector, which has seen people fleeing no matter how good the results were.  

A heatmap of the price moves since reporting earnings, showing weakness in Staples and Energy while most other sectors have seen positive reactions.


Although only 203 companies actually beat expectations and only 51 upgraded their guidance, 249 companies made positive moves after their earnings reports and, with almost exactly half of the S&P 500 having weighed in, it’s time for us to do a little shopping.  

On deck this week we have a lot of big names still to go and it’s a very quiet data week as well, so all eyes will be on these earnings – especially with just the one Fed speaker (Harker) – and that’s Friday after the close.  

The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are Enphase Energy #ENPH, PayPal #PYPL, onsemi #ON, Uber Technologies #UBER, Wal Disney #DIS, Tyson Foods #TSN, Royal Caribbean Cruises #RCL, CVS Health #CVS, Pinterest #PINS, and BP #BP.

Calendar Feb 6 2023

Turkey, Syria Earthquake live updates: Powerful earthquake rocks Turkey and  Syria, kills more than 1,500Not much going on this weekend – we shot down that pesky balloon China sent us, Beyonce won more Grammies and Turkey & Syria had a huge earthquake(1,700 dead so far).  None of that changes our investing premises so we’re sticking with our current plan until it stops working.

We have over 100 buying opportunities on our Watch List (Members Only) and we have another 100 long positions in our 8 Member Portfolios.  First we will review our long positions and decide which ones no longer serve our purpose (based on new information) and which ones can be improved upon.  THEN we will hit the Watch List and look for new stocks to add – AFTER we make sure we are adequately hedged for a downturn (see Friday’s Live Member Chat Room for that discussion). 

We’re having a bit of a sell-off this morning but 4,120 on the S&P 500 and 12,550 on the Nasdaq are nothing to worry about (4,000 and 12,000 holding are bullish) so we’ll just have to see how the week goes as we get ready to do some shopping.  


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Good Morning
John Mauldin, a well respected economist, calling for the S&P at 3200 by years end.
Thoughts from the Frontline Its a good read if you dont follow him.

i scanned through it. he quoted Jeremy Grantham as calling for 3200, but I don’t think Mauldin himself committed to that. Mauldin said he’s definitely in the ‘higher for longer’ camp and thinks the basic tightening of the Fed will cause volatility in 2023, but says vaguely we may ‘muddle through,’ whatever that means. Whichever way market goes in 2023, Mauldin could legitimately claim his letter anticipated the outcome. NOW THAT’S classic Mauldin.

really nobody knows, so we keep our balanced portfolios with some hedges.

Good Morning.

Did you ever find an answer to your own question, Friday – and everyone else’s – as to why The Fed only raised 1/4 pt when they knew in advance (surely) that the jobs numbers would be >500K when only 188K were forecast? …just curious and amazed.

read my John Mauldin link. Basically he’s in the “higher for longer camp”

$GOLD some nice 2025 calls bought in the $17’s and $20’s, both at the asked price

STLA is already out of the stable

STLA – What was the trade on this one?

I got the Jan 24 15/20 with a 17.5 put

Yodi, I think you can buy back the Jan 24 20 calls to match the LTP

Phi STLA pays a 6.6% dividend Can you suggest a Dividend play?

—- I’m think buy shares and sell the the ’25 $15 puts ( 2.2 ) and selling 1/2 Jan ’24 $ 17.5 Calls at 1.25). Do you see something better?

If you sell the Jan25 17 or even 20 put for 3.50 5.50 you got no cash outlay and you do better than the div play

Porsche listed an adr in September, POAHY. They do pay a dividend once a year, but Schwab says the % is from other sources. Maybe its 3% but not sure. also no options, of course

Buy 1000 STLA @ 16.15, Sell 15 Jan ’25 calls for $2.5, sell the 15 puts for $2.5, drops net to 11.15.

It Increases your yield to 10% for 2 years, and get called away at 15 for a 36% return + the 20% yield (2yr cumulative) is 56%. Or you own another 1000 at 12.50, Which isn’t so bad…. and do it again, rinse wash repeat…. Like Phil say, when your worst case isn’t so bad, it’s probably worth doing.

Phil, what would be a new options strategy on UNG? Or is the earlier 100 – 10/15 2025 bull call spread with selling 50 of the 2025 10$ puts still good?