Our Money Talk Portfolio is up 211% ($310,971).
That’s up $22,112 since our Nov 29th review and, of course, we only adjust the portfolio once a quarter, when I am on Bloomberg’s Money Talk (7pm this evening), so it’s a very low-touch portfolio but we’re averaging 60% annual gains since starting with $100,000 in November of 2019. What’s really great is that we made these gains despite only having net $47,643 in positions – gaining huge leverage from our option positions.
The real trick to managing a quarterly portfolio is knowing where the market will be in 3 months and we called for CASH!!! in November and kept our positions fairly neutral – making most of our money selling premium to suckers who thought the market would go up or down – they were all right, until they were all wrong – and the House wins again!
Let’s review our current positions and then we can discuss adding some new ones:
- SPG – We sold short puts to remind us to keep an eye on them. We got paid $14.75 ($7,375) for promising to buy SPG for $100 so either we get to own the stock for net $85.25 (30% off the current price) or we just keep the $7,375. We fully expect to collect the remaining $4,813.
- GOLD – Last year, Gold (/GC) averaged $1,800 and GOLD averaged $18, now it’s $16. When Gold went to $2,000 in March last year, GOLD went to $24 – so $16 seems like a bargain to me and it’s a great hedge against inflation, in any case. While it is low, we will take advantage to roll our 50 2024 $10 calls at $6.53 to 50 2025 $10 calls at $7, buying another year for 0.47 ($2,350). It’s a $50,000 spread and the current net is $18,805 plus the $2,350 we’re spending is net net $21,155 with $28,845 (136%) upside potential (even more as we will sell more calls when the current short calls expire).
- INTC – Another stock that is getting no respect. As we are up 93.9% on our short 2024 $40 calls, we will buy them back for $1,675. Now we can patiently wait for the next earnings report at the end of April. 2023 is a heavy investment year for INTC, so we don’t expect much – but no sense taking chances. The net of the $75,000 spread after the buyback is $3,225 (we have an aggressive put sale) and the upside potential is $71,775 (2,225%).
- JPM – This is a $20,000 spread currently at net $15,485 so just $4,515 (29%) left to gain but we’re deep in the money so it’s fairly safe and it’s better than turning it into more cash that we don’t need at the moment – so we’ll let it ride.
- LOGI – Already at the money as we were very conservative in our set-up. This is a $30,000 spread that’s currently trading at net $14,450 so there’s $15,550 (107%) left to gain over the next 12 months. Aren’t options fun?
- SOFI – I love these guys! This is a nice, little $20,000 spread that’s currently at a net $135 credit. When we bought it, we had a net $1,000 credit, so we’re up $865 (640%) so far – so no regrets. We were just testing the waters, however so let’s start investing and we will roll the 40 2024 $7.50 calls at $1.27 ($5,080) to 80 2025 $4 calls at $3.75 ($30,000) and we’ll buy back the 40 short 2024 $12.50 calls for $0.36 ($1,440) and sell 80 of the 2025 $10 calls for $1.45 ($11,600) and we will sell 15 of the 2025 $10 puts for $4.20 ($4,200). So now, we have spent net $10,560 (less the $865 we made earlier) and now we are in the $48,000 2025 $3/10 spread with an obligation to buy 2,500 shares of SOFI at $10. Our upside potential is $38,305 (395%) at $10 and we have another year to get there.
- YETI – YETI is our 2023 Trade of the Year, which means it is the spread we feel has the best chance of making 300%. You can see all the runner-ups in our previous review and YETI won but they are off to a slow start, only up $1,550 (206%) from the original $750 net entry. Still, we have a year to go and they are $6,000 in the money on the $22,500 spread – so you can see why I was so confident. $2,300 is the current net of the position so we have $20,200 (878%) left to gain if we can get to our $50 target.
Our 7 current positions have $184,003 to gain between now and 2025 and that’s 60% of the portfolio’s current value, which is nice but we do need to find some new trade ideas. At PSW, we are Value Investors who use options for hedging and leverage but it all starts with finding a good, solid stock that’s selling at a discount.
We’ll be discussing AI on the show today and I thought I would highlight a couple of companies that will benefit from my premise that the ease by which people can now publish books and articles using AI will lead to a massive clusterf*ck of content that will, in the not too distant future, overwhelm data storage servers, content pipelines and even the web crawlers who will try to index this nightmare.
I made an example of this in “Thursday Thoughts – The Robot Apocalypse Begins” but don’t take my word for it, just ask Warren, PSW’s AI ChatBot:
♦It is true that the ease of publishing enabled by AI technology could lead to an explosion of low-quality content on the internet. This is because many people may not realize that the material they produce is of poor quality and could still choose to publish it anyway. If a large number of people do this, it could result in a significant increase in the amount of low-quality content being generated and published.
If this were to happen, there is a risk that the internet could become overloaded with poor-quality content, making it harder to find the useful information we need. This could lead to a dilution of high-quality material and may make it more challenging for search engines and web crawlers to index and categorize content effectively. As a result, it could become more difficult for people to find the information they are looking for.
While advances in data storage and indexing technology are keeping pace with the increase in data, it is still possible that the sheer volume of low-quality content could overwhelm data storage and indexing infrastructure, especially if creators do not focus on quality and originality. If creators continue to publish whatever an AI spits out after being given a few words, the result could be an unmanageable amount of content that will be challenging to index and search, leading to difficulties in finding quality information.
In conclusion, while AI-generated content has made it easier for people to publish books and articles, it is crucial for creators to focus on quality and originality. If they do not, the sheer volume of low-quality content being generated could overwhelm data storage and indexing infrastructure, leading to difficulties in finding useful information on the internet.
Yet another example – all I did was cut and paste the premise I just showed you and it took him 30 seconds to generate that response. Now, here comes the fun part (for me): Here’s the interaction I now have with Warren:
Me – Given the above, what are some good areas to invest in?
♦As an AI language model, I cannot provide financial advice or recommend specific investments. However, I can suggest some areas that may be worth considering based on the current trends and developments in technology.
One area that may be worth investing in is data storage and cloud infrastructure. As more data is generated and stored online, the demand for scalable and reliable data storage solutions will continue to grow. Investing in companies that provide cloud services and data storage solutions could be a wise move.
Another area to consider is AI technology itself. As AI continues to develop and become more sophisticated, it is likely to have a significant impact on many industries, from healthcare to finance. Investing in AI technology companies that are focused on developing innovative solutions could be a wise move for those looking to capitalize on this trend.
Lastly, investing in companies that focus on providing high-quality content and originality could also be a smart move. As the amount of low-quality content increases, there will be a growing need for quality and unique content. Companies that focus on creating high-quality content, whether through AI or human writers, could be well-positioned to meet this demand.
Again, please note that these are general areas to consider and should not be taken as specific investment advice. It is always important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Me – Let’s talk about data storage, what are the top 5 public companies I should be looking at and tell me a bit about each one?
♦As an AI language model, I am not authorized to provide financial or investment advice, but I can give you the names of some top data storage companies that you might want to consider researching further. Here are five publicly traded companies that are major players in the data storage space:
Amazon Web Services (AWS): AWS is a subsidiary of Amazon.com that provides on-demand cloud computing platforms and APIs to individuals, companies, and governments. AWS offers a range of storage services, including Simple Storage Service (S3), Elastic Block Store (EBS), and Glacier.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Microsoft offers a range of cloud-based storage solutions, including OneDrive, SharePoint, and Azure Blob Storage. Azure is Microsoft’s cloud computing platform and infrastructure, providing a range of services for building, deploying, and managing applications and services through Microsoft-managed data centers.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Google offers cloud storage services under the Google Cloud Platform (GCP) umbrella, which includes Google Drive, Google Cloud Storage, and Google Cloud SQL. Google Cloud Storage offers multi-regional, regional, and nearline storage options to meet various storage needs.
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL): Dell offers a wide range of storage solutions for individuals, small businesses, and large enterprises, including Dell EMC Unity XT, PowerMax, and PowerStore. Dell’s storage solutions offer features such as data compression, deduplication, and automatic tiering to optimize storage efficiency.
Western Digital Corporation (WDC): Western Digital offers a range of storage solutions, including external hard drives, internal hard drives, and solid-state drives (SSDs). Western Digital’s storage solutions are designed for various applications, including personal, business, and data center use.
Again, please note that this list is not meant to be comprehensive or taken as financial advice. It is always important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Me – And how about cloud infrastructure?
♦Here are five other publicly traded cloud infrastructure companies that you may want to consider researching further:
IBM (IBM): IBM offers a range of cloud infrastructure services, including cloud computing, storage, and networking. The company’s cloud offerings include IBM Cloud, IBM Cloud Private, and IBM Cloud Object Storage, among others.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA): Alibaba Cloud is the cloud computing arm of the Alibaba Group and offers a range of cloud infrastructure services, including computing, storage, networking, and security. Alibaba Cloud is one of the leading cloud infrastructure providers in China and has been expanding its presence globally.
Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Oracle Cloud Infrastructure provides a range of cloud infrastructure services, including compute, storage, and networking. Oracle’s cloud offerings are designed for enterprise workloads and include features such as bare metal servers, GPU instances, and high-performance block storage.
VMware, Inc. (VMW): VMware offers a range of cloud infrastructure services, including compute, storage, and networking. The company’s cloud offerings include VMware Cloud on AWS, VMware Cloud Foundation, and VMware Cloud Director, among others.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO): Cisco offers a range of cloud infrastructure services, including cloud networking, security, and storage. The company’s cloud offerings include Cisco Meraki, Cisco Umbrella, and Cisco HyperFlex, among others.
Please note that this list is not meant to be comprehensive or taken as financial advice. It is always important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Me – How about data management companies?
♦Certainly! Here are five publicly traded data management companies that you may want to consider researching further:
Informatica Corporation (INFA): Informatica offers a range of data management solutions, including data integration, data quality, and master data management. The company’s solutions are designed to help organizations manage and integrate their data across different sources and applications.
Teradata Corporation (TDC): Teradata provides a range of data management solutions, including data warehousing, big data analytics, and data integration. The company’s solutions are designed to help organizations manage and analyze large volumes of data.
Cloudera, Inc. (CLDR): Cloudera provides a range of data management solutions, including data warehousing, big data analytics, and data engineering. The company’s solutions are designed to help organizations manage and analyze data across on-premises and cloud environments.
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB): MongoDB provides a document-oriented database platform that enables organizations to store, manage, and analyze unstructured data. The company’s solutions are designed to help organizations manage and scale their data across different applications and environments.
Splunk Inc. (SPLK): Splunk provides a range of data management solutions, including machine data analytics, IT operations, and security. The company’s solutions are designed to help organizations gain insights from their data and improve operational efficiency.
Please note that this list is not meant to be comprehensive or taken as financial advice. It is always important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Me – And what about chip manufacturers that supply AI?
♦Sure, here are 5 AI chip manufacturers that are publicly traded, along with a brief description of each and some information that might be of interest to investors:
Nvidia (NVDA): Nvidia is a well-known player in the AI space, with its graphics processing units (GPUs) being widely used in machine learning and deep learning applications. Nvidia’s revenues have grown rapidly in recent years, driven by strong demand for its gaming and data center products. The company is also making significant investments in autonomous vehicles, which could be a major growth area in the coming years.
Intel (INTC): Intel is a dominant player in the semiconductor industry, and its CPUs have been widely used in AI applications. However, the company has faced increasing competition from Nvidia and other specialized AI chip manufacturers. Intel is investing heavily in developing its own AI chips and has made several acquisitions in the space. The company also has a significant presence in the data center market, which could be a major driver of growth for its AI chips.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): AMD is a smaller player in the semiconductor industry than Intel, but it has been gaining market share in recent years. The company’s CPUs and GPUs are widely used in gaming and data center applications, and it has been making investments in AI chips. AMD recently acquired Xilinx, a leading provider of field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), which could be a major growth area for the company.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM): TSM is the world’s largest contract manufacturer of semiconductors, and it produces chips for a wide range of customers, including many AI chip manufacturers. The company has been investing heavily in advanced chip manufacturing technology, which could give it a significant competitive advantage in the space. TSM also has a strong balance sheet and has been returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Qualcomm is best known for its mobile processors and modems, but the company has been making significant investments in AI chips. Qualcomm’s AI chips are designed to be used in mobile devices and the internet of things (IoT), which could be a major growth area in the coming years. The company also has a significant presence in the 5G market, which could provide a tailwind for its AI chips.
See what I mean? All that took about 5 minutes to ask and 5 minutes to copy it to this page for publishing. I have to do the research now as ChatGPT only goes up to Sept 2021 and can’t give me much of a rundown. Bing is better at that but Bing says I used my limit in the past 24 hours, so I have to wait? Wait? What BS!
Anyway, lots of good suggestions, we’ll check out INFA and others in more detail later this week but, for now, my choices for adding to the Money Talk Portfolio are as follows:
I love INTC but we already have it (see above). TSM and QCOM are my next favorites (NVDA ship has sailed). BABA is cheap but threat of de-listing, ORCL reasonable but so is IBM and we LOVE IBM and it fits better in our portfolio.
So, we can add QCOM as follows:
- Sell 5 QCOM 2025 $85 puts at $7 ($3,500)
- Buy 10 QCOM 2025 $115 calls for $30 ($30,000)
- Sell 10 QCOM 2025 $130 calls for $23 ($23,000)
That’s net $3,500 on the $15,000 spread that is starting out $8,500 in the money. All QCOM has to do is get over $130 by Jan 2025 and the upside potential is $11,500 (328%) and the worst case is owning 500 shares of QCOM at net $92, which is still $31.50 (25.5%) below the current price.
And, for IBM, which was our 2022 Trade of the Year – so we know we love them – we can add the following:
- Sell 5 IBM 2025 $130 puts for $14.70 ($7,350)
- Buy 15 IBM 2025 $120 calls for $20 ($30,000)
- Sell 15 IBM 2025 $135 calls for $13 ($19,500)
That’s net $3,150 on the $22,500 spread with $19,350 (614%) upside potential at $130 and IBM is at $129.30 at the moment, so it needs to gain 0.70 in a bit less than two years to make 614% and the risk is owning 500 shares of IBM at $136.30, which is, in this case, more than the current price but we’re very confident IBM is far too undervalued here. It was our 2022 Stock of the Year – so we’re pretty sure!
And just like that we’ve used $6,650 of our cash to add $30,850 of upside potential, which means our Money Talk Portfolio now has a total upside potential of $214,853. Wasn’t that easy?
Good morning. Here is the link for today’s webinar
# 5 WDC on 2-24-23 a trader bought 4000 Jan25 $40 calls for about $10. maybe the AI knew that
JXN earnings and dividend raise. How do they make so much money
They are a great little company, previously ignored (until we started buying).
Hello Phil, Is it a still good time to enter JXN?
I see your question is still open.
We entered JXN in Sept.2022 at 28.10 and it just has nearly doubled by now. For me, I feel the stock is to high to start a new play at present. Even that the stock already was over 49$ the drop to 44 could be still to early to start a new play.
you can sell the Jan24 $30 puts for $2.00
Yes there is always a way to kill a cat. I personally do not like to sell puts when a stock is on the higher side of the scale.
But yes at 30 you back to the cost price of 28$.
I agree with Yodi, it got away – we’ll find something else to trade.
I think of Warren more like a person and Bing is more of an annoying tool that I have to use because it’s better than Warren but Warren is still my go to unless he clearly can’t handle the job. There are so many things Bing can’t/won’t do – it makes it very annoying – especially when I KNOW it can actually do them but just isn’t allowed. This is the truly terrible thing about Corporations controlling these AIs. I can’t wait for TikTok AI…
Meanwhile, I taught Warren a new tick by feeding him all of this morning’s Seeking Alpha news headlines, saying “Here are today’s headlines from Seeking Alpha (part 1). Which ones do you think are worth exploring and why?”
And he responds with:
🤖 Some of the headlines worth exploring are:
🤖 Sure! Here are some of the headlines worth exploring from the second set:
That is friggin’ great! The only problem is my personal belief is I need to see EVERY article – at least the headline, because you never know what little thing might come up later that gives me a better overall understanding of something in the bigger picture. I’ll never forget reading in the fashion section of the Sunday NYT (which I have always read cover to cover) and there was an article about how African kids would cut up tire treads and use them for shoes. Then, years later, when CROX started – I remembered that article and how practical and cheap they were – so we invested! You never know what’s important until it is….
Still, this is simply amazing stuff and, eventually, we’ll be able to teach it to be better in a manner that makes it stick, so the AIs can learn and get true experience.
Me – How about these headlines from the WSJ (I just highlighted the front page and pasted it in “”)
🤖 Some of the headlines worth exploring are:
LOL – I just realized he made the 2nd set completely up! So crazy…
Here is AI please note FSLR up 20$ today time to sell some short calls on this crazy buying. Possible 200 strike.
fslr pulled up SPWR – these companies have tons of cash now – good balance sheets and back orders out the wazoo. I am seeing in some chat rooms that a few people think SPWR will have a couple catalysts in the near future. Phil alluded to it.
The thing about SPWR is they have a $2.6Bn market cap with just $1.7Bn in sales and $56M in profits so 40x but Biden’s bill has $24Bn a year in Solar Energy Stimulus and $18.7Bn was spent all of last year so all SPWR has to do is maintain their 10% market share and they should double up pretty quickly and, if there’s any efficiency in their model – profits should more than double.
All it takes is for them to win one nice contract…
Bing is back so I asked what he thought:
Phil and members, looking to lock up some funds into tbills/notes, would you go 1 year or 2? Possible ladder into it if you believe rates will continue to rise?
I still say another point before the Fed is done. I think the thing is, don’t be static with your notes. Let’s say we expect
🤖 Based on the economic data results, here are a few comments:
The 6-month bill is now 5.17% and the one is 5.02 and the 2 is 4.81 so, if we think rates are going up, why not take the 6-month bill and then, in Aug, hopefully fed funds are 6% and you can move to a longer-term note to lock it in?
It’s super-unlikely the Fed raises rates – even if it’s only 5.5% by June – and then reverses by August – that would seem pretty insane. Though we could always get nuked or something…
Consider IBonds direct from the Treasury. Currently paying 6.89% . Annual purchase limit of $10,000 per person/$20,000 for a couple plus a few other minor restrictions. I bought last years issue yield was near 9%
That’s a great idea!
Another option if you use TOS is their Schwab Fund Value Advantage money market fund which can be bought/sold on the platform symbol SWVXX and it pays almost 4.5% vs. 2 year T-notes about 4.8%. I like the liquidity of SWVXX.
Phil/PFE: Thinking about putting a PFE position on, what trade would you go with, a spread? Or would you go with a dividend play? I like both. Please share your thoughts and what spread or div play. Thank you!
PFE Armchair buy stock and sell the 35/45 Jan24 strangle @ 3.70 gives you a return of 1.19% per month.
Jan25 same strangle @ 6.51 gives you a return of 1.04% per month
I was thinking the 40 straddle, going out to ’25? Thoughts, looks like 33% (cost basis drops to 30) return on stock if called at 40, and 5.4% for the 2 years for an additional 10.8%.
PFE Armchair buy stock and sell the 40/40 Jan24 strangle @ 7.60 gives you a return of 2.07% per month.
Jan25 same straddle @ 10.30 gives you a return of 1.44% per month
calculations of monthly interest are combined div plus option credit
Thank you Yodi-Can’t argue with that….. Looks like the ’24 is a winner
Well you do not get always the best option price two years out.
I guess it’s a coin flip, sometimes I feel the prices can be great, and other times I feel they are awful to your point. In this particular case it looks like the ’24’s are a better deal. Thank you again! How is the balmy weather in Europe. I was skiing in the Alps last week and could not believe how little snow there was….. Blessing in disguise given what could have been a miserably cold, expensive winter in Europe….
We come in winter for the warmer climate to Spain. But this year I found it cold 13 to 17 ° C during the day. But sunny. So why complain.
History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes
Of the 11 S&P sectors, eight were trading in the red, led by Utilities and Real Estate. Energy, Materials and Industrials were the three gainers.
Wall Street’s major indices fell in February, weighed down by hotter-than-expected inflation reports throughout the month which exacerbated concerns that the Fed would have to stick with rate hikes for longer.
On Wednesday, ISM’s gauge of manufacturing activity for February rose for the first time in six months to 47.7, though staying in contraction territory. New orders showed a solid gain, pointing to future strength. Meanwhile, the S&P manufacturing PMI also rose for February to 47.3, slightly below the consensus for a rise to 47.8.
Both sets of data suggested there was still strength in the economy and put the pressure on the Fed to continue with its rate hikes.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic in an online essay called for more rate hikes to above 5% and said that they would have to be held there until “well into 2024.” Moreover, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at a summit said that economic data remained concerning and that he was open to either a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting.
These are my comments, and notes, by the way, not the robot’s…
Ah, here’s the thing I was looking for in the first place:
Crude inventory up by 1.2M barrels for week ending February 24 – EIA
Mar. 01, 2023 10:38 AM ET
Another stupid business model bites the dust:
Those are some pretty bad misses.
ISM – look at the prices!
ISM Manufacturing improves marginally in February, less than forecast
Mar. 01, 2023 10:01 AM ET
Construction spending slips in January vs. expectation for an increase
Mar. 01, 2023 10:01 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing comes in under consensus for February
Mar. 01, 2023 9:45 AM ET
Why does “Remastered” (mostly on YouTube videos) mean WORSE?!? What is wrong with people these days? Is it just click-bait or do they actually think they are improving things?
I have the same issue with Spotify and Tidal. The Beatles Love is a spectacular remastering but there are very, very few examples of albums that have been improved with modern tomfoolery.
Love, by the way: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLNZ4pVtD8MsHiXSUkSX_ardf_aTcK6GDN
Those are my uncles playing cello and violin on Magical Mystery Tour!
I am trying out AI from this site – https://platform.openai.com/playground
Is that the same as you are using? There is a link on that page “looking for ChatGPT but site does not seem to work?
Same people, different area. There are lots of ways to use it on playground but I tend to always go here: https://chat.openai.com/chat
Another I told you so from day 1:
• The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with “blank-check” companies have sought protection from creditors. (Businessweek)
• Are We Headed For A Recession Or Not? Why our usual economic indicators aren’t pointing in a clear direction (FiveThirtyEight)
• Hopes for Lower Interest Rates Fade as Inflation Doesn’t. It’s Bad News for Bonds and Stocks. Blame it on Punxsutawney Phil. Since the furry varmint poked his head out of his den on Feb. 2, there has been a wholesale reassessment of the outlook for the economy and interest rat
es. Maybe it wasn’t his shadow that the famous groundhog saw, but a slew of indicators that showed unseasonably hot economic readings with no cooling in inflation. (Barron’s)
• What Everyone Got Wrong About the Economy—and the Ominous Implications for the Fed: The central bank’s efforts to tame inflation haven’t worked yet. More pain, and a harder landing, could lie ahead. (Barron’s)
• The Road to Disinflation: Inflation is Coming Down, but the Journey Now Looks More Bumpy (Apricitas Economics) see also How ‘Base Effects’ Trip Up Our Understanding of the Economy: Sometimes, the most widely cited inflation figures tell us more about the past than the present (Wall Street Journal)
• Markets History 101: It’s Time to Buy Bonds: Investors who rightly abandoned bonds when yields were stupidly low should add them back as ballast to their portfolio. (Wall Street Journal) see also Farewell, TINA: For years, we have heard that “there is no alternative” – TINA – to equities, and that thanks to the Fed, “Cash is trash.” No longer. Today, there is an alternative to stocks: Bonds. (The Big Picture)
• Welcome to the 5% World, Where Yield Chases You: The dark cloud of rising interest rates comes with some significant silver linings (Wall Street Journal)
• Jimmy Carter, Home Builder: The former president’s missions with Habitat for Humanity took him to 14 countries and built thousands of homes, bringing much-needed attention to the affordable housing crisis. (CityLab) see also How Jimmy Carter inadvertently shaped the 21st century economy: Inflation beat the 39th president, but today we’re using similar tools to fight it. (Grid)
• Apartment Rents Fall as Crush of New Supply Hits Market: Declines signal tenants may be maxed-out on how much income they can devote to rent. (Wall Street Journal) see also US Housing Market Posts $2.3 Trillion Drop, Biggest Since 2008: San Francisco and New York are slumping as the pandemic boom fizzles out, but migration to Florida has boosted Miami. (Bloomberg)
• Why WFH Will Not Doom Cities: Academics tend to overestimate the impact of current trends on cities today. Even more, they underestimate the function large cities now play in American society, a role that did not exist prior to the “golden era for large cities.” (Corner Side Yard) but see also Midtown Owners Hedge on Costly Office-to-Home Conversions. Landlords need Albany action to turn Manhattan commercial buildings into apartments — and that’s just the start of their challenges. (W42ST)
• Consultants Gone Wild: The real reason it costs so damn much to build new subways in America. there’s a lot going wrong with American transit projects—more on this in a moment—but many of the problems can be traced to a larger philosophy: outsourcing government expertise to a retainer of consultants. “What I’ve heard from consultants, which is surprising because they make so much money off this stuff, is, ‘Agencies don’t know what they want, and we have to figure it out.’ ” (Slate)
• The lunacy of 340B and Medicare’s inability to negotiate drug prices: Why do we mandate a better deal for business than for taxpayers? (Health Care Un-Covered)
• The Canceled-Man Discount: For some buyers, a public figure’s shaming presents a great opportunity: a real-estate bargain. (Air Mail)
• Would You Trade Places with Warren Buffett? The relationship between time, health, and money. (The Long Run)
• China’s Tech Rainmaker Vanishes, and So Does Business Confidence:Bao Fan’s firm says he’s unreachable, and others in the tech sector are worried for him and fear what his disappearance says about China’s heavy hand in business. (New York Times)
• A Year of Putin’s Wartime Lies: Every credible analyst of the invasion of Ukraine has been stunned by the scale of the Russian President’s folly—and his failure extends well beyond the battlefield. (New Yorker) see also Russian Shadow Fleet Emerges From Data on Empty Oil Tankers: Number of empty vessels with no destination jumps to record; Dark fleet expected to keep Russian diesel flowing after ban (Bloomberg)
• COVID deniers claim a new study says mask mandates don’t work. They should try reading it: Increased mask usage…reduced symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, demonstrating that promoting community mask-wearing can improve public health. (Los Angeles Times)
• Apple’s iPhones Are Winning Over Gen Z—and the World’s Premium Market: Young consumers worldwide prefer iPhones over high-end Android smartphones from rivals such as Samsung (Wall Street Journal)
• The Wild World Inside Your Gut: How healthy is your gut microbiome? We tackled everything from heartburn, stress, spicy foods and colon cleanses to antibiotics and more. So grab a kombucha, get comfortable and read on for everything you’ve wanted to know about the wild world inside your gut. (New York Times)
• The Cure for Hiccups Exists: First, exhale completely, then inhale a deep breath. Wait 10 seconds, then—without exhaling—inhale a little more. Wait another five seconds, then top up the breath again. Finally, exhale. (The Atlantic)
• The East Village Shop That’s Been the Magic Weapon of Chefs for Nearly 30 Years: Restaurants seek out SOS Chefs for its hard-to-find spices, vinegars, and oils from every corner of the globe. (Eater)
• The Puzzling Gap Between How Old You Are and How Old You Think You Are: There are good reasons you always feel 20 percent younger than your actual age. (The Atlantic)
can anyone clue me in as to why steel stocks are doing so well very recently? i mean besides the usual energy/commodities have been trading well all last year argument.
ok, i think i figured it out myself.
Yeah, it takes a lot of time to restart a shut-down steel plant so I can see why there may be a supply shortage for a while.
well, i am not sure, but i was more trying to figure out why, for example, X just vaulted to a new high in one day, and NUE and MT are all very recently on fire; i think its because the ISM and the inflation figures for Germany, France and Spain all came in hot. i think the ALGO/Macro computers kicked into gear as a result. i was trying to figure out why these stocks are busting out while the dollar is knocking on 105.
i’m kind of suspicious the europe inflation figures are also boosting US nat gas prices, although that’s more half serious, and half conspiracy theory economic thinking.
may i know where can I get recorded show ?
” explosion of low-quality content” – I have to assume the folks establishing AI tech will look to be compensated so that should self-regulate garbage generation at least to some degree unless usage fees are negligible.
Anyway, there may be good investment opportunities here which will become clearer as AI plays out but how about an example of how the economics may unfold- such as- SA is a paywall site and I gather SA pays contributors for content. PSW uses SA content, filters/summarizes it through AI and provides it to PSW members who are paid clients. It now will be more challenging to slice up the pie, no?
There will be all sorts of upheaval. I actually posted an article for SA that was essentially our chat review of SPWR the other day and I included my conversation with Warren as I thought it was interesting to see the process but SA Editors FREAKED OUT and said NO AI – AI is BANNNE on Seeking Alpha – which is complete and utter nonsense because half the authors there are using AI to write their articles – they just aren’t admitting it.
Here, watch this:
Me – Please rewrite the following article with a title that will make it compelling for Seeking Alpha – include whatever additional facts, details and insights you think will improve it:
“The list of bullish arguments for Intel stock is now alarmingly low.
In the eyes of some investors, the last great reason to own Intel (INTC 1.60%) is gone. Management slashed its quarterly dividend from $0.365 to $0.125 to fund its long-term strategy, which dropped its yield from 5.8% to just 2%.
Is Intel stock worth owning with that catalyst gone? Let’s find out.
Intel shows signs of continued weakness
Another interesting layer to the dividend story is that less than a month ago, chief financial officer Dave Zinsner was asked about the security of the dividend on the company’s quarterly earnings call. He said that Intel was “committed to maintaining a competitive dividend” and that it takes a “disciplined approach to the capital allocation strategy.”
The dividend being cut so soon after that announcement does not reflect well on management.
KEY DATA POINTS
$24.97 – $25.92
$24.59 – $52.51
But the dividend cut was necessary. In the fourth quarter, Intel posted a $700 million loss, driven by revenue falling 32%. This means Intel was using its cash reserves to fund the dividend — not a sustainable strategy.
Its gross margin also fell from 54% last year to 39% in the fourth quarter, indicating Intel had to slash prices to get to the revenue levels it did. Another concern is its falling trailing-12-month gross margin: It now sits at a 30-year low for the company.
INTC GROSS PROFIT MARGIN DATA BY YCHARTS.
The primary driver of this demand evaporation is an atrocious PC market. First, the economic outlook isn’t the greatest, so consumers aren’t rushing to upgrade their electronics. Second, many consumers recently upgraded their PCs within the past few years, during the pandemic. Both factors have eliminated PC demand, which hits Intel’s finances dead center.
The 2023 first quarter isn’t looking any better, with management guiding for around $11 billion in revenue, down 40% from 2022’s $18.4 billion (for reference, first-quarter 2022 revenue was down 7% from 2021).
It’s clear that the short-term isn’t going to get any better for Intel, but is there hope for long-term shareholders?
Management is cutting employees’ compensation
One of the items Intel brought up in its announcement to cut the dividend was its cost-savings initiatives. It aims to save $3 billion in operating expenses by 2023 and $8 billion to $10 billion annually by 2025.
It is doing this, the company says, by “reducing compensation and rewards programs for employees and executives.” According to the website Neowin, this includes at least a 5% pay cut companywide, suspension of bonuses, and a reduction in its 401(k) match.
However, a company’s employees are among its most vital resources. If you treat them right, you’ll get the most out of them. Unfortunately, decreasing operating expenses this way might look good on the quarterly report, but it can poison a workplace culture and affect future output.
Intel is also spending big money on its Ohio chip factory: a $20 billion investment that could potentially expand to $100 billion. While I’m all for moving chip production back into the U.S., Intel may need to reduce the factory’s footprint or capacity to right-size the building based on the lower demand, because Intel’s falling gross margins indicate a supply glut.
INTC CAPITAL EXPENDITURES (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.
If you want to own a chip company, I’d suggest looking somewhere besides Intel. Its business is struggling worse than that of its competitors, and with the company being behind on cutting-edge technologies like 3- and 5-nanometer chips, there are not a lot of compelling reasons to own the stock, especially with the dividend reduction.”
So that’s the original article, here’s the response:
Can you tell it was written by a bot? Did I create something new or did I steal the article? I could put some work in and add chart, etc. and presto – I get paid to publish.
Now, check this out. I’m saying the following to Bing:
Can you consolidate the following 4 articles into one balanced article about Intel?
🤓 Sure, I can help you with that. Here is a summary of the four articles you provided:
Based on these articles, here is a possible consolidated article about Intel:
Intel’s Dividend Cut: A Bold Move or a Desperate One?
Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) recently announced that it would slash its quarterly dividend by 66%, from 36.5 cents to 12.5 cents per share5 , marking its first dividend cut since 2000. The decision came as a surprise to many investors who had relied on Intel’s steady dividend growth over the years.
The company said that the dividend cut was part of its plan to conserve capital and invest more aggressively in its core business of making chips for PCs, servers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), 5G wireless networks and autonomous vehicles. Specifically, Intel said that it would spend $20 billion this year on building two new factories in Arizona, as well as ramping up production of its next-generation Xeon processors based on Sapphire Rapids architecture.
Intel’s new CEO Pat Gelsinger said that he was confident that these investments would pay off in the long run by enabling Intel to regain its technological edge over rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM). He also said that he expected Intel to return to revenue growth by 2024.
However, not everyone was convinced by Gelsinger’s optimism. Some analysts argued that Intel’s dividend cut was a sign of desperation rather than confidence, and that it reflected the company’s deteriorating financial situation and competitive position in the chip industry.
They pointed out that Intel had been losing market share and profitability to its competitors, who had been able to produce faster, cheaper and more energy-efficient chips using advanced manufacturing processes that Intel had struggled to master . They also doubted whether Intel could catch up with its rivals in terms of innovation and customer satisfaction .
They advised investors to sell Intel and buy other chip stocks instead .
So who is right about Intel? Is it making a bold move or a desperate one? The answer may depend on how well Intel can execute on its ambitious plan and deliver products that meet or exceed customer expectations.
In the short term, Intel may face some headwinds, such as lower earnings, higher costs, chip shortage, regulatory scrutiny . However, in the long term, Intel may benefit from some tailwinds, such as higher demand, diversified revenue streams, loyal customers, attractive valuation and dividend yield . Ultimately, Intel’s fate may depend on whether it can regain its leadership position in the chip industry by producing innovative and competitive products that can challenge its rivals.
So, is that original work or plagiarism x 4? Who’s to even say anymore?
PS, Bing did all of the above section 100% on his own, based only on my question above. How crazy is that?
Oh, and I was going to say (and Maddie and I argue about this all the time), why is it plagiarism if a Computer reads dozens of articles and distills an opinion from them and writes something new? Isn’t that how all of us process information and create new works?
Artists take whole classes where all the do is copy the works of a single artist and learn his technique – then they move on to learn another one. Why is it bad when a computer does the same thing?
The human mind is an imitation engine, we learn by copying and, eventually, we begin to create our own thoughts, what would we expect Artificial Intelligence to do things any differently?
some 2025 options being traded today
KO sale the the $45 puts x 1500
VZ buy of the $38 calls x 1600 also the $40’s traded midpoint x 1000
NEM sale of the $35 puts x 1000
PM sale of the $95 puts x 500 ( was upgraded at UBS today )
BX 2025 $95 puts x1000 somebody probably bought these
Looks like you in for the put sales today. They all very nice on an up going market. But when it goes down, there is no stopping. I burned my fingers once on that. lesson for life. I like to handle them like row eggs.
these are not MY trades, but I do like to follow the million dollar + ones . Sometimes those put sales are a big fund taking the cash off the table and just replacing the position with some options
STLA previously mentioned here.
2025 $12 puts sold .95 x 10,000
market has felt like can see 4000 retested for early month new money flows. If it closes under 3950 then may increase risk of seeing 3850-3900 zone, as long as NYSI staying bearish
Gunderblitz – your comment from the other day regarding hedges
I think we’ll see 3,600 again.
hey, speaking of conspiracy theories, suppose you are powerful enough to control your own AI like chatGPT, and you decide to short the market. you ask the AI to make a list of people like us all across the country, then you tell it to start talking to us (emial, twitter, sms?) individually and tell it to subtly or not so subtly promote a negative view of the market. maybe tell it to pretend its a real person and voila — off it goes to have millions of personal interactions and crash the markets.
i really can’t imagine what somebody like Putin or Xi is going to get up to with this thing. or rather, i can imagine. it’s not going to be fun.
Me – Write a letter as a real stock hustler telling Gunderblitz that IBM is the greatest company in the World and he should put every penny he has into it.
I’m sure it’s already happening to some extent. There are dozens of trading sites you can buy for not much money and then take over their mailing lists and twitter accounts and start writing slanted articles. Heck Tobin Smith and some other recently got in trouble for getting paid to promote small companies. Same game, different tools….
IBM we havnt talked about them in a while.I’m looking at the monthly chart- $128.00 you can sell the 2025 $130 calls for $14.20 and the $100 puts for $5.40 a nice return while you collect a 5% dividend
though they do have a lot of debt and the dividend payout ratio is over 100%
that is very tempting.
phil, i’ve been watching John Hussman for years. he was underperforming for years but now he’s kicking some a–, up 18% last year in the Strategic Growth Fund. and apparently you two are now channeling each other. you should check out his portfolio https://whalewisdom.com/stock/hsgfx. his two biggest positions right now – PFE and QCOM.
I’m glad he’s finally learning! 😎
How do you announce when you exit a position or spread? Is it only during a Portfolio Review? Or is there a list somewhere?
Since the last LTP review, we entered positions in DVN, BAC, … is there a list somewhere?
The Reviews are the list and any changes made in between are right here in the Live Chat Room – nothing happens anywhere that our Premium Chat Members don’t get to see first.
Look at the sum b AXON go. I have held that since it was TASR, sold lots and calls, most recently the Dec 23 200’s. Might actually pull the trigger now at PE of 139 !
has anyone here ever actually seen Phil face to face? how do we know Phil is not an AI? Phil are you an Artificial Investor?
Certainly artificially intelligent. I can feel the neurons decaying….
well, neurons decaying while dollars compounding.
we can call it Alzheimer’s Investing.
we used to do meet-ups in Vegas years ago. They were very fun, so ya, Ive seen him, and he’s really good at poker too. Still, If we dont insist on a different color for the AI then its going to be hard to tell the difference, probably sooner than you think.
It is fully my intention to merge my consciousness with an AI. I always want to see what happens next – that would be my main regret about dying – missing all the fun ahead….
JXN profits- Lock peoples money up for 7+ years, Charge them fees- Expenses and Fees
Mortality and Expense Risk (M&E) 1.30% and complicated riders ” Lifeguard Freedom Flex w/ IS Max”- financial shell games and Invest in decent quality Corporate bonds for float and Voila- Profits.
Yep, it’s a good racket.