PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review

September 12, 2023

2283

Another blah month!

We were at 4,505 on the S&P 500 for our last review on Aug 15th and we're at 4,525 this morning - so not much has been happening. Fortunately, the bulk of our positions are designed to profit from time (Theta) decay - so flat month's are just fine for us - as we move ever closer to our goals.

We did a bunch of buying on the 21st - that was smart but, otherwise, not too much as we wait (patiently?) for better data and for the Fed to make up it's mind and for some indication of what's up in China. I'd love to go gung-ho bullish but I'm not feeling it and this morning I was reminded why with this list:

1. Leading Indicators: The U.S. Leading Economic Index has been dropping for 16 consecutive months. Leading indicators are crucial for forecasting economic trends, and this decline could suggest a potential economic slowdown.
2. Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence is a significant factor in predicting economic health. The Consumer Confidence Index is hovering just above the level that historically signals a recession. A decline in consumer confidence could lead to reduced spending, impacting the overall economy.
3. Consumer Spending: Consumers are shifting their spending habits, opting for essentials over big-ticket purchases. This change in behavior may indicate that consumers are becoming more cautious due to economic uncertainties.
4. Credit Card Debt: The fact that U.S. consumers have exceeded $1 trillion in credit card debt raises concerns about their financial health. Rising credit card delinquencies could be a sign of trouble.
5. Bank Lending: Banks tightening lending standards across various loan categories can hinder economic growth. Reduced lending can lead to decreased business investments and consumer spending.
6. Corporate Debt: The significant amount of corporate debt coming due in the next two years could strain corporate resources and lead to slower growth.