FED Meeting & New Portfolios (6/18/2025)
Timeline
- 0:00 – Market overview: “everything’s drifting along”
- 1:30 – Bitcoin’s 5 % drop & why it can’t function as money
- 3:20 – Introduction to stable coins
- 4:40 – USDT (“bull-shitty”) vs USDC distinctions
- 8:45 – Why Visa & Mastercard sell off on USDC threat
- 10:15 – How a USDC transaction works (1 coin = 1 dollar)
- 12:05 – Stable-coin float & the business model for Walmart/Amazon
- 13:28 – Retail incentives (1 % back) & bypassing card fees
- 15:26 – Senate passes stable-coin regulation (“GENIUS Act”)
- 17:48 – “Be very careful” — stable-coin scam warnings
- 20:46 – High-denomination cash & inflation anecdote
- 21:40 – Visa/Mastercard fundamentals under tariff pressure
- 28:05 – Credit-card membership-fee model vs Costco analogy
- 30:00 – Set agenda: Fed decision & portfolio reviews ahead
- 31:57 – “Always something” crisis chart; long-run market perspective
- 39:10 – Options lesson: building an IBM 250/300 bull-call spread
- 54:20 – Jack in the Box deep dive and trade repair strategy
- 1:07:00 – FOMC policy statement released (rates on hold)
- 1:08:42 – AI (‘Warren’) dissects the Fed statement
- 1:27:00 – Commentary on Powell’s press conference Q&A
- 1:54:15 – Portfolio reviews: upside calculations & cash management
Summary
Phil begins the webinar by noting the markets are essentially drifting sideways and warns against over-interpreting daily fluctuations. He emphasizes that nothing meaningful has changed—Bitcoin is down sharply, highlighting its unsuitability as a currency due to extreme volatility and impracticality for real commerce. This segues into a discussion of stablecoins, particularly USDT (which Phil labels “bullshitty”) versus USDC, which is fully backed by U.S. dollars and supported by major institutions.
Phil underscores the explosive rise in scams tied to stablecoins and urges caution—there is no legitimate way to “invest” in something that is simply a digital proxy for a dollar. He likens it to a scam where someone convinces you a $500 bill will soon be worth $550.
