Big FED Decision & Portfolio Notes (9/17/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Oil short trade update
2:00 – Market indexes selling off before Fed
5:00 – Microsoft/AI data centers, Trump in Europe
7:00 – Accusations against Fed officials, political pressure
12:00 – Plan to cut corporate reporting from quarterly to semiannual
15:00 – U.S. market dominance tied to reporting transparency
21:30 – Dollar decline as main driver of stock market gains
29:00 – Dependence on AI, loss of real expertise
36:00 – Dollar weakness as hidden “wealth tax”
39:00 – Housing affordability collapse and new home pricing
40:00 – Fed dot plot manipulation, Trump’s influence
44:00 – Threat to Fed independence
45:00 – Portfolio review and positioning
49:00 – Preparing for Powell/Fed announcement
1:03:00 – Fed delivers 0.25% rate cut
1:07:00 – Projections on growth, unemployment, inflation
1:20:00 – Debate over one more cut vs. two cuts this year
1:27:00 – Risks of U.S. debt and potential bankruptcy scenarios
1:30:00 – Powell press conference highlights
1:43:00 – What Powell avoids saying; Fed credibility and political pressure
1:46:00 – Market reaction, hedging strategies, closing remarks
Summary
Phil opened with a quick check on his oil short trade, then turned to the markets: all major indexes were slipping ahead of the Fed’s decision. He tied much of the volatility to Fed uncertainty, political interference, and Trump’s pressure campaign to replace Fed “hawks” with dovish allies.
While waiting for the Fed, Phil argued that Trump is deliberately undermining Fed independence by targeting officials with personal accusations — digging up or inventing dirt to pressure them into resigning. The goal is to replace hawkish voices with dovish loyalists who will tilt Fed policy in Trump’s favor. This tactic not only erodes trust in the institution but also feeds into a broader culture of intimidation, where lawsuits and threats chill public discourse and force journalists, entertainers, and even investors to soften their language to avoid retaliation.
