Bargain Hunting & Retirement Income (2/11/2026)
Themes:
• Markets are strong but technically fragile
• Bond markets matter more than political rhetoric
• Energy narratives are often misleading
• AI is real productivity leverage, not just hype
• Wealth concentration from automation is a structural risk
• Avoid narrative-driven leverage traps like MicroStrategy
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Timeline
- 0:00 – Global Market Overview
- 1:46 – Oil Trade Setup and 5% Rule Short
- 12:42 – VIX and Volatility Environment
- 14:39 – Natural Gas and Energy Update
- 15:57 – 10-Year Treasury Auction and Bond Market
- 17:16 – China Reducing U.S. Treasury Buying
- 18:03 – Big Tech Bond Issuance vs Treasuries
- 25:16 – Fed Funds Rate vs Treasury Yields (Arbitrage Risk)
- 32:33 – EIA Petroleum Report Breakdown
- 35:43 – U.S. Oil Exports and Energy Independence
- 41:29 – Energy Policy and Environmental Commentary
- 46:57 – Current Market Snapshot (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin)
- 48:22 – NASDAQ Technicals (5% Levels, Death Cross, RSI, MACD)
- 53:34 – S&P CAPE Ratio and Valuation Concerns
- 57:46 – AI Productivity and Historical Analogy (Electricity)
- 1:03:06 – S&P Self-Selection Effect and AI Winners
- 1:06:41 – AI, Automation, and Future of Work
- 1:23:07 – Wealth Distribution and Robotics Economics
- 1:28:52 – Mattel and Individual Stock Movers
- 1:29:35 – AI Spending Impact on GDP
- 1:30:25 – Ralph Lauren and Fashion Signal
- 1:31:01 – Chevron, Oil Pricing, and Refiners (Valero)
- 1:35:47 – Earnings Movers (Lyft, Robinhood, Moderna, Zillow)
- 1:41:33 – Travel Demand and Hotel Occupancy
- 1:42:37 – Satellite Expansion (Amazon vs Elon Musk)
- 1:44:45 – Investing Process and Big-Picture Context
- 1:45:05 – MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Strategy Critique
- 1:48:49 – LTP Trade Idea on MicroStrategy
- 1:50:51 – Watch List Review (Microsoft, Broadcom, Netflix, etc.)
- 1:54:03 – Netflix / Warner Bros Deal Risk
- 1:56:31 – AI Disruption of Film and Media Production
- 2:02:06 – Portfolio Strategy, Earnings Review Plan and Q&A
Summary
Phil begins with a broad global market overview.
