Dozens of long-shot bets on Polymarket, from the war with Iran to the cryptocurrency market, have defied the odds, according to a New York Times examination.
On the evening of Thursday, June 12, a small group of internet gamblers made a highly specific prediction on Polymarket, the betting website that offers odds on virtually everything.
Thirteen users wagered a total of $140,000 that Israel would strike Iran by the end of that week, even as the odds suggested that an attack was unlikely. Seven of the accounts had been opened just days earlier. Another had a history of bets related to military action against Iran — and had won money on all of them.
Israel attacked Iran later that day, netting the accounts more than $600,000 in profits.
