Inflation, the FED, & Early Earnings (7/15/2026)
Timeline:
0:00 – Intro / webinar topics (inflation, Fed, earnings)
0:26 – Fed and inflation critique begins
3:01 – Kevin Warsh Senate testimony / portfolio divestment story
6:40 – Ultra-wealthy spending habits and billionaire economics
14:13 – "Black holes of wealth" concept
16:03 – How the wealthy drive inflation
17:27 – Housing affordability crisis
19:01 – Portfolio review / S&P fair value levels
20:03 – Earnings growth slowdown (Nvidia, Micron)
21:03 – Apple valuation discussion
23:00 – Big tech growth saturation and the AI spending race
26:44 – "Token Max" — tokens as a commodity explained
29:53 – Hyperscaler borrowing and bank lending dynamics
32:41 – Data center capex spending breakdown
36:33 – Tokens as a borderless global commodity
39:26 – The "extraction economy" and AI-driven margins
43:51 – AI as one system serving millions (Her movie analogy)
47:59 – Switching to voice assistant "Warren" demo
54:20 – Beige Book release and summary
58:21 – Beige Book breakdown and discussion
1:07:07 – Nvidia chip delays and hyperscaler risk
1:13:07 – Google TPUs and Broadcom partnership
1:19:14 – Switching to "Anya" (advanced AI) demo call
1:23:53 – Token commoditization / hyperscaler capex thesis discussion
1:32:57 – Portfolio review resumes; cyclical stocks (ASML, Intel)
1:37:00 – IBM stock drop discussion
1:38:11 – Nvidia's coming monopoly erosion prediction
1:43:53 – AI training analogy ("smarter monkeys")
1:49:22 – Apple's strategic advantage / closing remarks
1:50:20 – Q&A and sign-off
Transcript:
Fed Testimony and the Warsh/Druckenmiller Divestment Story
All right, what's going on? What was the topic of this webinar? Inflation, the Fed, and early earnings. We've got the Fed coming up shortly.
Last week we talked about how the Fed is changing the way it operates — look, the Fed isn't really fighting inflation. This is a big joke.
