Earnings and the Fed Decision (7/29/2026)
Timeline
0:00 – Tech setup / Pivot points chart study explanation
3:39 – Caterpillar's $60 drop and its Dow impact
4:20 – Caterpillar as an AI data center "picks and shovels" play and valuation
7:16 – Power grid strain, brownouts, and data center demand
11:59 – Risk of data centers breaking regional power infrastructure
13:19 – Political framing: who's called "reasonable" vs. "crazy"
15:01 – EPA rolling back acid rain pollution limits for data centers
17:24 – Anya joins to discuss EPA rollback
28:28 – Return to oil/gas prices, EIA inventory data
32:48 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion and salt cavern risks
36:03 – Broader resource scarcity (oil, water) and future conflict
39:47 – U.S. oil export math and price distortions
41:15 – Iran war, "peace talk" manipulation theory
47:24 – Oil trading profits from manufactured peace-talk headlines
52:44 – Fed Chair Warsh introduction, Basho's Fed analysis begins
59:22 – FOMC July statement released and reviewed
1:03:39 – Consumer confidence data and bifurcated economy discussion
1:14:36 – Powell's remaining influence/vote explained
1:15:47 – PCE inflation data methodology controversy
1:19:29 – Market reaction check (gold, silver, SoFi, OWL, Barrick)
1:20:45 – Gold/central bank demand and Barrick trade rationale
1:23:44 – Japan's debt crisis as a preview of U.S. trajectory
1:25:39 – U.S. tax structure: corporate underpayment and deficit math
1:28:36 – Fed Chair Warsh's live press statement begins
1:33:00 – Warsh addresses AI capex and its economic effects
1:34:19 – Return to corporate tax/deficit commentary
1:39:04 – Historical parallel: fall of Rome
1:41:11 – U.S. vs. Japan debt comparison continued
1:43:14 – Immigration policy and demographic decline discussion
1:46:26 – Closing warning: hedge risk, earnings season outlook
1:48:32 – Final take on Fed opacity and lack of a plan
1:51:21 – Sign-off
Transcript
Technical Setup
I see people can hear me.
