It's been an interesting month:
Our last Portfolio Review was on July 15th with the S&P at 7,543 and now 7,745 is up 2.666% and maybe that's a good sign 👹, but maybe not... We got a MILD pullback in between and now we're over the top of our range but still within our prediction so we're mostly waiting and seeing as earnings season winds down.
Yesterday, we did a major strategic review to take us into the end of the year and we'll spend the next few months transitioning into a profile that matches that outlook. The war is still on (the cease-fire officially ended yesterday) - oil was $79.79/85.33 last month and this morning it's $84.07/90.90 and we just took a long on /NG at $2.65 in our Live Member Chat Room yesterday.
As I said in the last review:
"The S&P is essentially right where we left it last month but the Nasdaq is down about 500 points (1.6%) – no big deal and earnings are coming, which are expected to be SPECTACULAR! If IBM can drop 25% and the indexes finish the day green – then you can’t bet against this market going higher and higher and higher (until it pops)."
Earnings have indeed been SPECTACULAR but they have also been concentrated in the HYPErscalers and, EVEN WORSE, half of those earnings were the result of them buying each other's stocks and making massive paper gains that have not done the Economy a lick of good (GDP up just 1.5%).
I KNOW it sounds like sour grapes or whatever but these are SERIOUS, GENUINE concerns that we have and they force us to be much more cautious than the general trading population - which is all in on this rally, with Bank of America's Bull/Bear Indicator at 9.6 - with 10 being the maximum - the highest since 2021 (and a 25% correction).
