Last month, we did our June Portfolio Review on the 16th and I said “I THINK it’s off now” but I KNOW it’s on now as we had a bomb-a-palooza last night in Iran, with the US launching a 7-HOUR WAVE of strikes on Iran. We have resumed our blockade if Iranian ports with 20 warships and hundreds of planes – none of which have been authorized by Congress (who specifically told Trump to stop two weeks ago).
President Trump warned that if Tehran does not return to the negotiating table he said they were at, the U.S. will begin targeting Iranian power plants and bridges (war crimes) next week. He also rescinded a previously announced plan to impose a 20% toll on ships in the Strait of Hormuz thanks to Robo John Oliver’s impactful reporting.
At the same time (this morning, in fact), Trump is telling Congress he plans to withdraw troops by Sept. 30th but can he please have another $200Bn to keep bombing until then when he really, really pinky-swear promises he’ll have won. That’s 77 days – the war is 138 days old so far and that was supposed to take “a few weeks” back in March.
So we take it all with a Lot’s wife-sized grain of salt and we do our best to protect our portfolios from the wild market swings. Oil was $78.59/80.93 a month ago and now it’s $79.79/85.33 and the spread is widening – which is not a good thing because the people in Europe, paying $85.33, are closer to the conflict than we are and are not consuming Corporate News or listening to our Corporate President and his Corporate Cabinet – who like to insist everything is fine – lest the Consumers stop spending.
Speaking of which, we get the Fed’s Beige Book today and we’ll see if the short-lived end of the war cheered everyone up last month this afternoon. While oil prices are LOWER, they are still 35% HIGHER than they were in February – before we started the war (and yes, we did start it).
The S&P is essentially right where we left it last month but the Nasdaq is down about 500 points (1.6%) – no big deal and earnings are coming, which are expected to be SPECTACULAR! If IBM can drop 25% and the indexes finish the day green – then you can’t bet against this market going higher and higher and higher (until it pops).
7,700 is 10% over our fair value target but that target takes into account things like SpaceX being a bullshit fantasy and that you need chip supplies and copper and cooling systems and POWER and PERMITS to build data centers – not just gumption – and you also need TIME because this isn’t putting hotels on Boardwalk and Park place – these are REAL structures that have to be built – and staffed – and connected to the grids over TIME!
Of course, our primary hedge in our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) is the ultra-short SQQQ ETF which moves 3x against the Nasdaq and, as you can see, we’re skating along the 50-day moving average at 716.66 but it’s “LOOK OUT BELOW” for the 200-day morning average at 637.84 (down 11%) if it fails so LOOK OUT for that!
And, speaking of looking out – after studying 29,754 publicly-traded stocks over the past 100 years (the 36,500-day moving average) it turns out that 46 companies have been responsible for HALF the wealth that was actually created and 86% of the stocks left investors underwater over time. 86% – almost 9 out of 10! And it’s getting WORSE, not better…
So you can see why I HATE ETFs – why buy a basket of crap to find a few good stocks when you can just play the good ones? THAT is what Fundamental Investing is all about – learning how to find the good ones – and then we use sound money management and options trading skills to press our advantage – to CREATE OUR OWN LUCK – to BE THE HOUSE – NOT the Gambler!
Index investing if for people who CAN’T tell the difference between a good stock and a bad stock. For people who CAN’T follow the news, who CAN’T understand the Macros and the Micros or read the Earnings Reports or understand a Balance Sheet. THAT is who ETFs are for – NOT for US!
Let us make you BETTER than that!
Money Talk Portfolio Review: I was last on the show June 10th and we did the last full review on the 9th we only adjust the portfolio on show (taping) days on Bloomberg so we can’t change anything – this is just an FYI. We have DROPPED from $644,581 to $627,265 but that’s still up 527.3% since starting with $100,000 on Aug 21st, 2024 – so our 2nd anniversary is next month!
Last month we were up a ridiculous $83,113 so this is a healthy pullback of gains that we didn’t expect to last (we were just lucky on that particular day).
Last month I said: “We CAN’T make any changes again until September so there’s not much to say here. These gains can evaporate as fast as they came if the VIX re-escalates – but that’s what the hedges are for. Notice we are about 60% in CASH!!! after cashing out AMAT – that makes me rest easier as well….” – Nothing has changed…
$700/Month Portfolio Review: We JUST did this review last Tuesday so, also, nothing to see here – move along… Actually, we raised CASH!!! from $18,583 to $30,251 so I’m sleeping MUCH better into earnings (and we also have a fat SQQQ hedge and yes, I know it’s an ETF, but it’s a special-purpose one – so back off).
We were at $136,461 last Tuesday and now $141,180 and our model says we should be making $2,326 per week so we’re right on track and, once again:
“Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen… muhahahaha!!!“
Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):
IN PROGRESS
