The dominant power in the Middle East from now on will not be the U.S. or Israel but Iran.
For years, Iran confronted a balance of power in the Middle East that tilted against it. The region was dominated by a hostile American superpower, a nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant local actors—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—that were strategically and economically aligned with the United States.
Today finds Iran in entirely new circumstances. It has gone head-to-head with the superpower and Israel, withstood a pounding from their most advanced weapons, and more than survived. As a result, Iran has, with American help, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The dominant power in the region going forward will be Iran, not the U.S. or Israel. Neighboring countries are already making their adjustments to this new reality. More distant powers will too. For years, the world has been dealing with an Iran constrained. It will now discover what Iran unleashed looks like.
Thoughts
Trump certainly has a skill set: self-promotion, intimidation, and an instinct for exploiting other people’s weaknesses. But none of that makes him a competent strategist.
On the world stage, commanding the loyalty of a servile Republican Party does not give Trump the kind of power it does within the United States. His usual tactics—threats, bluster, and intimidation—have failed spectacularly, yet he continues to rely on them, unable to learn.
Trump started a war with Iran and then lost it by nearly every meaningful strategic measure. Iran survived, made no concessions, gained control over the Strait of Hormuz, and emerged as the dominant power in the region. Meanwhile, Trump exposed our allies to retaliation, depleted weapons America may need elsewhere, and taught both our friends and our enemies that the United States may begin a war it cannot finish or win.
And this failure did not happen in isolation. Trump has spent years alienating our allies over needless disputes and damaging the relationships and supply chains on which American strength and prosperity depend. We now face higher prices, persistent inflation and high interest rates, a rapidly growing national debt, allies who no longer trust us, enemies who no longer take Trump’s threats seriously, and a reduced ability to obtain or manufacture all the nice things Americans expect to have. What Trump has delivered is a weaker, poorer, more isolated America—and a stronger Iran.
This article from The Atlantic lays out just how much Trump’s reckless war—launched without consulting our intelligence agencies, our military experts, or our allies—has already cost us, and how much more we have to lose.
