Robert Pape’s Last Week Today: IRAN TAKES CHARGE
Originally published on Sep 12, 2026
In today’s edition of Last Week Today, Professor Robert Pape argues that three developments from the past week reveal Iran’s growing regional and diplomatic power. First, Houthi forces have reportedly seized the Yemeni port city of Mocha and the strategically important Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a move Pape compares to taking control of “the Hormuz of the Red Sea” and one that raises new concerns about shipping disruptions and the possibility of $150 oil.
Pape also examines the BRICS summit in New Delhi and what it may reveal about the international response to Iran’s growing influence in the Persian Gulf, including the emergence of alternatives to the U.S.-led global order. Finally, he discusses Britain’s surprising sanctions against Israel and asks which international pressure campaign is more likely to spread: sanctions against Iran or sanctions against Israel. Pape sums up this consequential week in world politics in three words: Iran takes charge.
Timeline: IRAN TAKES CHARGE
0:00:00 Three Main Global Actions
00:02:56 Iran Takes Charge
00:03:47 Issue #1: The Red Storm On The Red Sea
00:05:07 Declining Oil Exports
00:07:06 Brent Crude Price Impacts
00:07:41 Why Could This Happen
00:08:54 Two Chokepoints
00:10:38 Iran Sets The Price of Oil
00:11:02 What’s Iran Trying To Accomplish
00:11:54 Military Briefing w/Adm John Kirby
00:12:50 Issue #2 The Global Diplomatic Response
00:13:13 Perspective From The Shanghai Cooperation Summit
00:13:49 BRICS Summit 2026
00:14:32 The New Regional Balance of Power
00:15:13 The India Impact
00:15:54 Issue #3: British Sanctions Israel
00:18:11 The UK Concern
00:19:01 The Iran Win
00:20:02 Global Opinion – Iran Advantage
00:21:03 The Global Cost and Deeper Dive
Robert Pape’s Last Week Today: US LOSING ITS EDGE
Originally published on Sep 5, 2026
In this edition of Last Week Today, Pape examines three events reshaping the politics of power: the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, Vladimir Putin’s attempt to pursue peace in Ukraine without the United States as mediator, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and its Bishkek Declaration. Together, they reveal what an emerging post-American world may look like—and raise the question of who is gaining influence as U.S. primacy fades.
Timeline: US Losing Its Edge
00:00:00 Three Main Events Last Week
00:02:13 Event #1 Aug 30th US Strike
00:03:30 Aug 31 Iran Escalates
00:04:12 Sep 1 US Hits Back
00:05:13 Sep 1 Iran Retaliates
00:06:31 Iran’s Strategy To Raise US Military Costs
00:07:50 Iran’s Goal
00:08:14 Event #2 Russia-Ukraine
00:09:04 The Ratcliffe Trip
00:10:04 US Negotiators Sent To Russia
00:10:43 The Effect On US Power
00:11:26 Event #3 Shanghai Cooperation Summit
00:12:55 Cracks In The US Anti-China Coalition
00:14:00 Death of American Invincibility and the Global Power Big Picture
Images
Transcripts
1. Last Week Today — Iran Takes Charge
Video date: September 12, 2026
Editor’s note: Transcripts have been lightly edited for clarity and readability.
Introduction
Welcome to Pape on the Politics of Force. I’m Professor Robert Pape.
We have a new edition of Last Week Today, where we cover the three leading issues in global politics from the past week. Today’s edition is called “Iran Takes Charge,” and you will see why in just a moment.
Three Main Global Developments
There were three major global developments this week.
First, the hot war in the Persian Gulf became even hotter. In just the last 36 hours, the Houthis—a group in Yemen—seized the Red Sea coastal city of Mocha, from which mocha coffee takes its name, and Perim Island, a key island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Think of it as taking the Hormuz of the Red Sea.
This raises many questions and has already generated tremendous discussion. One of the most important is whether $150 oil is still merely hypothetical.
The second major development is still unfolding and will continue through the weekend: the BRICS summit in New Delhi. This is another international gathering of leaders from around the world. The central question is: What will be the diplomatic response to Iran’s growing power in the Persian Gulf? Will it produce alternative global institutions or something else?
The third development was truly surprising: Great Britain’s sanctions against Israel. These sanctions were announced while I was speaking at the European Parliament a few days ago. I was talking with members of the European Parliament as the news arrived, and it hit them like a lightning bolt.
What are these sanctions about? Why are they happening now? And which sanctions will become global first—sanctions against Iran or sanctions against Israel?
It has been quite a week in world politics.
Iran Takes Charge
Altogether, this week can be summed up in just three words: Iran takes charge.
Iran is gaining advantages across the board. This does not mean that Iran is the puppet master pulling the strings behind all these events. It does mean that events are breaking Iran’s way—and that Iran is taking full advantage.
The big question is: Why is Iran gaining so broadly? And the even bigger question is: What are the implications?
That is what we will discuss in the next few minutes. Let’s begin with the red storm on the Red Sea.
Issue One: The Red Storm on the Red Sea
Houthi Gains Along the Red Sea
What we saw in the last 36 hours was truly stunning. Since about July 20, the Houthis have been waging what amounts to a campaign for control intended to reduce Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea. During the last 36 hours, they dramatically escalated that campaign.
Houthi rebels took control of Mocha, a port city directly on the Red Sea and south of Yanbu, an important outlet for Saudi oil exports. Even more remarkably, just a few hours later, their forces took control of Perim Island—a strategically important island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Together, these developments mean that the Houthis now have effective control over much of the Red Sea coastline that matters for Saudi oil exports.
Declining Oil Exports
This is a truly stunning turn of events. Why? Because we have been watching Iran and its allies steadily squeeze the flow of oil not only from the Persian Gulf, but from the Middle East more broadly.
This has been happening since the middle of July—almost two full months. It is not an up-and-down cycle. The movement has been in one direction, and the situation is getting worse.
Before the war, the baseline was 20 to 21 million barrels a day moving through the Strait of Hormuz. We can call that the prewar normal. In early July, the volume briefly rose to an average of 15 to 16 million barrels a day—not quite back to normal, but approaching it fairly quickly.
Now, the International Energy Agency and other credible sources are rapidly revising downward their estimates of the average daily amount of oil likely to come out of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. Those estimates may fall further because the squeeze is not over.
We keep being surprised, and one of the surprises is that we are still surprised. We should recognize that this is a consistent trajectory initiated by Iran and its allies.
The Effect on Brent Crude
Now let’s look at the price of crude oil. For those following Brent crude, the important point is that this is the largest one-week spike in Brent’s history. It is an enormous increase.
As we continue to be surprised, notice that the markets are moving in only one direction. Prices are no longer bouncing around very much, and President Trump has largely lost the ability to talk down the price of oil.
Why This Could Happen
Why could this happen? There is a simple answer: because there is so little to prevent it.
There is no quick and easy U.S. military option for constraining the Houthis. Just over a year ago, shortly after the Trump administration returned to office, the United States fought a 55-day war against the Houthis. Two aircraft carriers were deployed while the Houthis were shutting down traffic in the Red Sea. The campaign continued through March, April, and May until the Americans essentially gave up and left.
Consider what would be required to mount a genuine strategic operation capable of reversing the Houthis’ current gains. If your reaction is, “That is enormous,” that is precisely the point. There are no quick and easy U.S. military options for reversing what the Houthis have just accomplished.
Two Chokepoints
But the situation is even worse than that. If the United States tried to reverse these gains, where would the required forces come from? The Persian Gulf.
Why might it make sense for Iran to pursue this strategy? By effectively creating two chokepoints in the war, Iran forces the United States to choose which one it will try to contain or reopen.
Even with the Abraham Lincoln, the United States currently has a grand total of three aircraft carriers worldwide that it could use for these operations. As everyone knows, the Lincoln has a severely strained crew.
The United States does not have sufficient forces in anything like the next several months to reverse—or even contain—a two-chokepoint war. That is the real significance of what occurred during the last 36 hours.
How far can the Houthis and Iran push this? There are already reports of attacks on the east-west pipeline that carries Saudi oil to Yanbu. There could easily be more attacks. Current estimates of how much oil will emerge from the region during the next two months have already fallen, but they could decline further—and quickly.
Iran and Its Allies Are Setting the Price of Oil
This means that Iran and its allies are setting the price of oil. If the price rises further—perhaps reaching $150—it will be a function of actions taken by Iran and its allies. That is likely to remain true for months.
What is Iran trying to accomplish? If America pauses and does not respond, Iran constricts shipping through Hormuz and the Red Sea. If America strikes, Iran can restrict shipping even further, including by laying mines.
We have not yet seen the combination of large numbers of mines and drones. Either way, U.S. costs rise.
Why would Iran do this now? It wants to raise the political costs of the conflict for the Trump administration and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections. It also wants to send American leaders a very unpleasant message about what awaits them if they escalate after the midterms.
Conversation With Admiral John Kirby
If you would like to hear more, especially about the military issues, I invite you to join a conversation I will have with Admiral John Kirby on Tuesday, September 15, at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
John Kirby is a long-serving military officer who, after his service, became the Biden White House’s chief spokesman on national-security affairs. You have probably seen him on television many times. I cannot think of anyone better—especially at this moment—to discuss the military issues involved in what we are seeing in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Information on joining us will be available in the notes.
Issue Two: The Global Diplomatic Response
From the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to BRICS
Now let’s turn to our second issue: What has been the global diplomatic response to Iran’s rising power?
It is important to look for signals from the BRICS summit in New Delhi, which formally begins tomorrow but is effectively already underway as leaders meet on the sidelines.
To put this into context, less than two weeks ago there was another international gathering: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. As I mentioned in last week’s edition of Last Week Today, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to be moving closer to America’s enemies—or, if you prefer, its rivals.
That was two weeks ago. What did we see today as the BRICS summit began? Modi was front and center, immediately shaking hands with Vladimir Putin and again meeting with the president of Iran.
India is a critical U.S. partner. For decades, it has occupied a central place in America’s efforts to counterbalance China. To see India moving closer to America’s enemies or rivals—whichever category you prefer—is truly remarkable.
A New Regional Balance of Power
What we are seeing are new regional dynamics that directly reflect the changing balance of power. America’s power is declining, while Iran’s power is rising.
What is happening? India is moving closer to Iran and its allies. This is standard balance-of-power politics. It is part and parcel of the new world the United States will face for years to come.
What exactly is India doing? I want to stress that India is not becoming a war-fighting ally of Iran. I would be shocked to see Indian military forces directly involved in fighting in the Persian Gulf.
However, as U.S. power declines, India is choosing not to oppose Iran. That is tremendously important because it reduces Iran’s isolation and expands its influence at precisely the moment when the United States is trying to accomplish the opposite.
Issue Three: Britain Sanctions Israel
A Surprising Break by a Longstanding Ally
The final development I want to discuss is Britain’s sanctions against Israel. These came as quite a shock.
The British government has long been an ally—indeed, one of Israel’s staunchest allies—going back to the Balfour Declaration many decades ago. Now the British government has imposed trade sanctions on goods from Israeli settlements. The text announcing the action also accuses settlers of ethnic cleansing.
Israeli leaders are, of course, extremely upset. But the important point is that France and Canada immediately joined Britain.
That is why the sanctions became a topic in my discussions at the European Parliament about Israel and the Iran war. The European Union is now thinking seriously about what it should do. If it joins, sanctions against Israel could move beyond a country-by-country effort and begin to become global.
If Democrats win the House—or both the House and Senate—in the midterm elections, it is easy to imagine legislation moving through Congress to join this international coalition sanctioning Israel. President Trump would have the power to veto it. But it is important to understand that support for sanctioning Israel is increasing not only among Democrats, but among Republicans as well.
Could the House and Senate eventually pass a veto-proof measure? Perhaps not immediately. But these are important political dynamics that we should watch during the coming months.
Britain’s Economic Concerns
Why is this happening in Britain? Many opinion surveys show what the British public thinks about the Iran war. Its leading concern is the damage the war is doing to people’s pocketbooks and to the British economy.
The British public is not completely oblivious to the plight of Israeli civilians, and it would be a mistake to portray it that way. Nevertheless, Britain’s primary concerns center on the danger that the Iran war poses to its economy—and that danger could become worse.
How Iran Benefits
What we are seeing is Iran winning in yet another way. I am not saying that Iran pulled the strings or that the British government consulted Iran’s president or any other Iranian leader.
I am saying that Iran is benefiting greatly from the fact that Israel is engaged in controversial, multifront wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel and the United States have also unleashed a war against Iran that is inflicting great damage on the world economy.
This is contributing to Israel’s growing isolation. Who benefits? Iran.
Across all three of these issues, we can see Iran taking charge. Iran is gaining and benefiting.
Global Opinion Favors Iran
Why is this happening more broadly? The Iran war is creating a diplomatic opening for Iran, and Iran is taking advantage of it in many ways.
There are numerous reasons for this, but I want to draw attention to one: global public opinion. The most recent credible Pew survey of many countries around the world—part of a series Pew has conducted for decades—found that 74 percent of the public across 36 countries disapproved of President Trump’s handling of Iran, while 67 percent held unfavorable views of Israel.
This is not entirely a product of the Iran war, but the war has moved opinion substantially in this direction.
The Global Cost
That means Iran’s gains are likely to continue, and those gains will come at a cost: stronger regional influence for Iran that we may eventually find troubling, greater Iranian leverage over energy supplies, and further isolation of the United States and Israel.
As I saw directly at the European Parliament, countries and populations can be angry with the United States and Israel. But they are also rapidly confronting what it means to live in a post-American world without the benefits of America acting as protector.
The Continuing Human Cost of September 11
Before we finish, I want to call attention to one other important event. Today is the 25th anniversary of September 11.
The September 11 attacks were the deadliest terrorist attack ever carried out on American soil. About 3,000 people died that day.
Something very special happened during today’s anniversary ceremonies. For the first time, there was a moment of silence for the roughly 9,000 additional deaths caused by 9/11 through diseases attributed to breathing asbestos and other dust released during the destruction.
This was the first such observance during the 25 years of 9/11 anniversaries. It is important to recognize the price of war—and how that price continues long after the day of an attack.
A Deeper Dive
I hope you found this helpful. If you want to go deeper, I invite you to visit my two Substacks, The Escalation Trap and Professor Pape. We address different issues in each.
I’ll see you next time for Last Week Today.
2. Last Week Today — U.S. Losing Its Edge
Video date: September 5, 2026
Introduction
Welcome to Pape on the Politics of Force. I’m Professor Robert Pape. Today we have a new edition of Last Week Today, where we look at the events of the last week through the politics of force, and I try to tell you what I think they mean.
Today, we are going to look at what I think you will see is how the world looks after U.S. primacy.
Three Main Events of the Week
What were the main events this week?
First, by far the dominant event was Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: the back-and-forth strikes between the United States and Iran. We want to talk about who is really winning.
Then we saw Vladimir Putin suddenly talking about peace in Ukraine at an economic forum. There is more to say about that. This was actually the first time in two years that Putin had talked about peace in Ukraine.
Finally, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization held a major summit. You are going to see some important signs of a growing global alignment without America.
What do these three events have in common? They point toward a post-American world. That does not mean the world has suddenly and completely accepted that it needs to move beyond American primacy. But in all three events, we can see clear signs that global power is shifting away from American primacy.
The big question is: Why is the world already moving past U.S. primacy? And the biggest question is: What are the implications?
Event One: The United States and Iran
The August 30 U.S. Strike
Let’s start with Iran and Hormuz. The catalyst came on August 30, when the United States observed several Iranian missile launchers that appeared ready to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States responded by knocking out two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, a small island near Qeshm.
It is completely understandable if you have never heard of Larak Island, but, as you can see from the geography, it occupies a critical location. Why would Iran use launchers to lay mines? Those launchers could distribute mines across an area extending roughly 120 to 130 kilometers from Larak Island. If Iran wanted to shut down oil shipments from the United Arab Emirates, this would be a well-situated place to do it.
Notice, however, that the American action consisted of only a small set of strikes against two Iranian rocket launchers.
Iran Escalates on August 31
What came next? Iran escalated. The following day, Iran launched multiple attacks, including a wave of missiles aimed at Jordan—where the U.S. military had moved much of its air power after pulling back from the front-line Gulf states—and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran was essentially doubling down on what America had done. This was not tit for tat in the way we usually think of it. Iran was escalating when America used force.
The United States Strikes Back on September 1
What did the United States do? The next day, it struck multiple Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sites. Most of these sites were near Iran’s coast, around the Gulf of Oman and Bandar Abbas. They are widely rumored to be potential targets in future U.S. ground-force options.
What did U.S. Central Command strike? Mostly radar installations. We can view this as an American response: Iran launched strikes against multiple U.S. bases, and the United States answered with multiple strikes against IRGC sites—in ways that might also help prepare for future military operations.
Iran Retaliates
Within hours on the same day, however, Iran launched an even larger, coordinated wave of missile and drone attacks. This time, the attacks involved both the IRGC and the Artesh, Iran’s regular army.
The Artesh was originally the army of the Shah of Iran, the American-backed ruler whom the United States and Britain installed in the 1950s. It has since been reformed and is now a sister service to the IRGC.
Together, they attacked multiple U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, as well as two oil tankers near Hormuz, raising the stakes again. Iran was not signaling that it wanted to respond with proportionate force. It was responding with escalation: America attacks, and Iran ups the ante.
Iran’s Strategy: Raising the Cost of American Power
In other words, Iran is demonstrating that it wants to raise the cost of American military power. That is true not only in terms of the scale of its retaliation, but also in the price of oil.
Since July 12, Iran has followed a more provocative strategy: either initiating force or, when responding to American force, raising the stakes to signal escalation dominance. Notice what has steadily risen since July 12: the price of oil.
Whether the United States pauses or attacks targets in Iran—and whether Iran retaliates or not—the cost of using American power continues to rise. This is central to Iran’s strategy of imposing costs on America ahead of the coming midterm elections.
Iran’s Goal
What is Iran trying to accomplish? If America pauses, Iran threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by laying mines. If America strikes Iran, Iran attacks American bases. Either way, U.S. costs rise.
This is what the loss of U.S. primacy looks like in practice.
Event Two: Russia and Ukraine
Putin Calls for Bilateral Negotiations
Now let’s look at Ukraine and Vladimir Putin. On September 3, at a conference in Vladivostok, Russia, Putin made public statements about wanting peace. But he included some interesting caveats.
He said that Russia and Ukraine should reach an agreement between themselves. Notice the emphasis on bilateral talks: Russia and Ukraine. Who is left out? The United States.
Why is that significant? Because just days earlier, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare trip to Moscow to present Putin with a clear mediation option. Under that proposal, the United States would serve as mediator in trilateral talks involving the Americans, Russians, and Ukrainians. Reports indicate that Ratcliffe presented a plan under which Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy would all be in the room.
Putin’s answer was no: no to U.S. mediation and no to the trilateral format.
U.S. Negotiators Go to Moscow
That brings us to today, Saturday, September 5. President Trump’s two main negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have gone to Moscow to speak directly with the Russians, likely including Vladimir Putin.
In other words, they have done what Putin requested: entered bilateral discussions. Notice who is missing—Zelenskyy. Putin is responding to the Ratcliffe plan in no uncertain terms.
The Effect on U.S. Power
What does this mean for U.S. power? Moscow likely interpreted the Ratcliffe visit as a sign of weakness—a desperate effort by Washington to retain its status as a global arbiter.
By rejecting the proposal, Putin is highlighting America’s lost leverage. To be clear, he is not saying that he will not talk to America or Ukraine. He is saying that he will not do so in the shadow of American primacy.
This is what the loss of American primacy looks like in practice.
Event Three: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit
The Bishkek Declaration
The third major event of the week was a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the release of the Bishkek Declaration. It is understandable if you have not heard about this; the American media have not given it much coverage. But this was a very important event.
Why? Look at who attended: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India joined Russia and China in condemning Western sanctions and Western military actions against Iran. Prime Minister Modi also met with the Iranian president at the summit.
All of this happened while Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued sharp warnings that the sanctions under “Operation Economic Outcast” should be observed. The summit represented a rejection of those warnings—not only by Russia, China, and Iran, but also by India. India’s role is what I want to underscore.
Cracks in America’s Anti-China Coalition
This shows that America’s anti-China coalition is beginning to fray. India has been a vital counterweight to Chinese expansion for decades under both Republican and Democratic American presidents. Now New Delhi is actively cooperating with Beijing.
This also shows that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “D-Day” sanctions plan is backfiring. Far from creating a global coalition that rallies around the United States to place increasing pressure on Iran, the opposite is happening—even with one of America’s most important partners in counterbalancing China.
This is what the loss of American primacy looks like in practice.
The End of the Illusion of American Invincibility
Why is this happening? American primacy had already been slowly fading before the war with Iran, but that war is adding a large exclamation point. I would call it the death of American invincibility.
The illusion of American invincibility—which, I would argue, was never fully grounded in reality—began with the 1991 Gulf War and its “shock and awe” campaign. That illusion is now being broken.
For 35 years, the United States believed that high-tech weapons could effortlessly bomb any enemy into submission without serious consequences. Much of the world believed this as well.
The Iran war is a hinge war. It is a stark check on the illusion created in 1991 because Washington has failed to break Iran despite months of overwhelming military and economic pressure. That failure is shattering the myth.
The Iran war is becoming a bookend to an era, not merely a defeat for the United States. This is why we are seeing growing challenges to American dominance on the world stage.
The Global-Power Picture
Where is all of this heading? There are even larger implications for globalization.
In 1991, the United States did more than win a major victory over Iraq in the Gulf War. It persuaded the world that America could secure global trade routes. Saddam Hussein had been threatening the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. After the war, trade as a share of world economic output grew enormously.
In 1991, trade amounted to 38 percent of world product. Last year, it was 62 percent.
If people believe that trade is operating in a stable environment—one in which there may be an occasional disruption, but America can quickly intervene and correct the instability—the cost and perceived risk of trade decline. Insurance rates fall. And when something becomes cheaper, we get more of it. That is what happened with world trade. That is globalization.
The greatest consequence of what is now occurring is that we must consider the possibility that globalization will begin to move in reverse.
I hope you found this week’s episode enlightening. If you want to go deeper, I encourage you to read my recent Foreign Affairs article, “Iran and the New Rules of Global Power.” In it, I examine developments in different parts of the world, explain the underlying forces that were already at work before the Iran war, and show how the war is placing a large exclamation point on those dynamics.
I hope to see you here next week.
