Author Archive for Chart School

Bitcoin Update – Bullish pressure present

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-update--bullish-pressure-presentIf Venezuela or Argentina conducted business in bitcoin then their savings and wealth would be a lot better off. Yes Bitcoin and Litecoin have been volatile over the last few years,  but nothing like Bolivar (Venezuela) or the Peso (Argentina). 

You say they could use the US dollar, yes maybe so, but those who use the US dollar have to the yield to the US Federal Reserve where as bitcoin is decentralized and those who use it yield to no one.

In the next 12 to 18 months the lightning network and atomic swaps logic will forge Bitcoin and Litecoin together as the go to crypto decentralized currency. Of course massive risk, so the investor should be warned you can lose all your funds.  

Time to review the demand and supply price and volume action of Bitcoin.

Charlie Lee is the founder of litecoin, the twin coin to bitcoin. Litecon will do what bitcoin is not good at. This recent video Mr Lee unwinds 7 myths about litecoin.

You can review our special offer via our Services pages

Very Affordable Charts: This is one of the best deals on the WWW. You can use our full service charts (i.e. option ‘C’ in the table above),  which includes our very smart RTT Custom indicators, for very low $70 USD per year (or $35 USD for 6 months). We have found market traders have many charting tools, we have also found members use our site to assist in their own strategies by helping them with: Dominant cycles, Gann Angles, Wyckoff price and volume indicators, Point and figure charts and Scanning.


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE:
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Weekly Market Recap Sep 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Slow and steady drip up all this past week in a very quiet news environment.  A gap down top open the day Tuesday (which was recovered quickly) and a gap up Thursday (which held) were the highlights!

The latest on TRADE WARS!(tm):

Tuesday, news hit that China vowed to retaliate and plans to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S. for Washington’s noncompliance with a ruling in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties, Reuters reported. That’s part of a dispute that goes back to 2013.

“Trade wars are certainly a concern, but I don’t know that they’re a one-moment-in-time thing. So far we’ve looked past them, but over the longer term a trade war could be very damaging,” said Richard Weeks, managing partner at VWG Wealth Management.  Despite that, Weeks said he remained cautiously optimistic about stocks. “Between high corporate profits, stock buybacks, and muted interest rates, there’s still an underlying bid to the market no matter how you slice it. There are still plenty of things to be concerned about, but there aren’t enough reasons to be too pessimistic,” he said.

The U.S. economy grew at a “moderate pace” even though there were pockets of weaker activity in certain districts, according to the latest Beige Book released Wednesday. Trade concerns and a lack of workers are also delaying projects, the report said.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the NASDAQ 1.4%.

Economic news was sparse and not market moving.  Friday, retail sales were reported as rising 0.1% vs 0.3% expectations but the market ignored the news.

Pot continues to be “hot” – another massive move this week for Tilray (TLRY).

Transports are also at highs so it is difficult to get too bearish on stock when that is happening.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

We are back to…
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Weekly Market Recap Sep 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

We wrote in last week’s recap:  “One would think the indexes are a bit extended short term”.  And indeed, a rest and consolidation occurred as both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ pulled back to their 20 day moving averages.  (The Russell 2000 did as well but it was not overextended going into the week)

Friday President Trump said the U.S. had tariffs ready to go on another $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of tariffs on $200 billion in goods the administration is now preparing.

“I think investors were hopeful that we clearly made progress with Mexico [on trade] and Canada seemed to be within a line of sight…and I think investors were saying ‘Maybe we won’t get the fireworks with China and clearly there is disappointment, right now,” said Diane Jaffee, senior portfolio manager at TCW.

Keep an eye on emerging markets – we’ve seen rustling out of Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, etc – it’s still pretty quiet out there but in 1997 a market dislocation hit due to an event in Thailand of all places so the general weakness we are seeing in many emerging markets won’t matter – until it does.

A team led by Marko Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy at J.P. Morgan, blamed the weakness in global markets to a “risk-off” mode with investors seeking to minimize their exposure to risky assets such as stocks amid concerns about contagion from emerging markets as well as the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates.

The difference between U.S. and emerging-market stock performance this year has been stark. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the divergence between emerging markets and the U.S. stands at a 14-year high, and while this kind of extremity has in the past been followed by a period of mean revision, Deutsche Bank recently wrote that the problems in emerging markets are so severe that a rebound may not be in the cards.

Amazon followed…
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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Monday, 09 April 2018, 06:23:55 PM

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Comment: Most bullish set up for SILVER.. ever, but will banks allow it to rise

Date Found: Tuesday, 10 April 2018, 08:05:50 PM

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Comment: Why is Syria so important?

Date Found: Wednesday, 11 April 2018, 04:54:37 PM

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Comment: Zerohedge: spooky in more ways than one!

Date Found: Friday, 13 April 2018, 01:42:11 PM

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Comment: Fed screws up! EveryTime, are you hedged! www.mcoscillator….

Date Found: Saturday, 14 April 2018, 03:00:56 PM

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Comment: RTT: This sector warming up!

Date Found: Monday, 16 April 2018, 01:56:51 AM

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Comment: Say its real this time!

Date Found: Tuesday, 17 April 2018, 02:49:33 AM

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Comment: Will gold break out ??

Date Found: Saturday, 21 April 2018, 01:47:35 PM

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Comment: The so-called smart money has started to sell at the end of the trading day, a bad sign for this bull market. SMI measures buying and selling in the first and last 30 min of the day.

Date Found: Saturday, 21 April 2018, 07:41:52 PM

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Comment: The only time in history that the SMFI declined more than 10% from its high while the S&P 500 was still relatively near its own high occurred in January 2000. Even more than we’ve seen in recent months, the S&P was holding up, churning near all-time highs, while the Smart Money Flow Index was diving lower.

Date Found: Sunday,…
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Weekly Market Recap Sep 02, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

The upward move continues.   In last week’s recap we mentioned a lot of things turned positive on the technicals and that was born out in the action of the week, starting with a “gap up” in Monday’s session!

The U.S. and Mexico reached an agreement to enter into a new trade deal as President Donald Trump announced that he wants to drop the name “North American Free Trade Agreement” from an existing deal that includes Canada.

“It looks like a revised Nafta agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada may be reached shortly. That is giving investors optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal can be worked out in the fall which would remove an obstacle for markets to move higher,” said Jeff Kravetz, a regional investment strategist at U.S. Bank Private Wealth Management.

Apple (AAPL) is up 8 sessions in a row – best month since 2009 with a 19.6% gain.  That’s a giant move in itself but considering how large the company is, it is just a spectacle to behold.

Square (SQ) is up 12 sessions in a row.

Biotech has also been strong – remember all that “we are going to do something about these outrageous prices” talk?

For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.9% while the NASDAQ jumped 2.1%.  In August the S&P 500 gained 3.0% while the NASDAQ surged 5.7% (that’s 68% annualized!).

While not a massive market moving stat it is worth noting on Tuesday the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence climbed to 133.4 this month from 127.9 in July. That’s the strongest reading since October 2000 and topped the previous post recession peak of 130 in February. However, such bullish readings can prove a double edged sword, pointing to growing optimism but also suggesting that a measure of complacency may be gripping Wall Street.

Consumer spending climbed 0.4% in July, according to a government reading, matching the estimate of economist. Incomes rose 0.3%. And…
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Dow: How much higher?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

dow-how-much-higherLucifer was loved in heaven the day before he fell.

Reference: SP500 Cycle Review 

The angels today are: Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NetFlix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL). These stocks are loved by the masses, so much so there is a sellers strike. There is no supply of stock float, as no one is selling hence prices rises month after month. 

No ones knows when this ends, or why. Below we use history as our guide. Yes history may not repeat exactly but it sure does rhyme. The major point of the chart is the ‘easy money has been made’, any further gains is just ‘small change’ with a very high risk attached to it.

Investor capital has increased many times since March 2009, the focus now must be to keep some it, by either paying down debt or investing in other non correlated (or contrarian) asset classes. A  change is coming. The future expected market correction will be the worlds first high frequency trading sell off. Makes you wonder what this would look like. Hmmmm, what to do … run away!

The Dow inflation adjusted monthly chart, with a DPO.

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Dow


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Every once in a while you must go to cash, take a break, takes a vacation. Do not try to play the market all the time. It cannot be done, too tough on the emotions.”..

Jesse Livermore

..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..

Benjamin Franklin

..”October: This is one of


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Weekly Market Recap Aug 26, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

After a few months of being range bound on the indexes – especially the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ, this past week saw a significant improvement in short term technical conditions. This coincided with the celebration of the “longest bull market in history”.

Wednesday marked 3,453 days since the S&P 500 hit its low of 666 on March 9, 2009. Since then, the broadest U.S. blue-chip index has more than quadrupled in price terms.  The current rally isn’t the hottest. The previous record S&P bull market that ended with the tech bust in March 2000 rose 417% over 3,452 days—far above the current rally’s 323%.

Few investors would have bet that the longest bull market in U.S. history would follow on the heels of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. A decade ago, storied investment firms like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers disappeared, while others including Merrill Lynch were sold under intense market pressure. Many analysts and investors believed in March 2009 that, even with broad market indexes down 40% and more from their peaks 18 months earlier, worse tidings were yet to come.

No surprise from the Federal Reserve minutes:

The Fed minutes indicated broad-based support for another interest-rate hike in September with many officials stating that as long as economic data remain strong, “it would likely soon be appropriate to take another step in removing policy accommodation.” However, they also suggested that any tightening will have to pause if the U.S. trade tensions with partners continue to escalate.

Fed head Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was also more or less as expected:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank’s gradual path of interest-rate hikes remains appropriate as there does not seem to be “an elevated risk of overheating.”  In his closely watched speech opening the Jackson Hole summer retreat, Powell said inflation has recently moved up near 2% but “we have seen no clear sign


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Golds Wyckoff Price Road Map

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

golds-wyckoff-price-road-mapLets see where we are with the Wyckoff Road Map for gold.

Applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic. (A wealth of knowledge on this subject is disclosed via the RTT Plus service found at readtheticker.com)

Question: Is there evidence to suggest a accumulation within gold.

First, we must understand gold is controlled large positions of : futures longs, futures shorts, futures calls buy and sell, futures puts buy and sells. Each of these will be large and must be positioned before a powerful move higher or lower can occur.

1) The sharp sell off during 2013/14/15 allowed the shorts to profit, short covering occurred late 2015/16/17. The short trade from the 2011 high is done! This is good news for bulls as these positions are mostly cleared.

2) The two very sharp sell offs in 2016 and 2018 (from $130 to $110) allowed large professionals to accumulate futures longs positions during a down swing. This is important as the professionals do not want to build a position when price is making new highs, well they can but the average cost basis will be poor plus they would have to compete with unwanted public demand. Professionals use bad news to buy from the weak hands. Plus these sharp sell offs are well timed to benefit from futures option trades, nice! Buying gold using cash secured puts is good business.

3) Early 2018 the gold price did not make new high (ie MSOS), it was held under $130. Therefore gold did not create break out news headlines in the media which would have attracted the public masses. The informed do not want the public to build up a position, they wish to do this for themselves. New 5 year highs attract the public and professionals do not want this yet. The pubic are used to build positions against or move price to a target cheaply.

4) The opposite to (3), if the professionals really wanted to build up a large futures gold short position it would have been very beneficial to get to gold break out to at least $145 early 2018 to attract the uninformed public masses, thus allowing the professionals to take the other side and crushing the public long positions when…
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Weekly Market Recap Aug 19, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A good amount of volatility this past week, but once again indexes are just sort of hanging around as we work through some news items, specifically facing trade issues.  We ended last week with some hand wringing over Turkey – while nothing was really resolved, U.S. markets looked past that… however emerging markets continue their struggle.  The U.S. indexes have simply been range bound for weeks on end.

The Turkish central bank pledged in a statement Monday to provide “all the liquidity the banks need.” It also said banks would be able to borrow foreign-exchange deposits from the central bank at one-month and one-week maturities. Analysts said Turkey’s reluctance to raise interest rates stood out.  Wednesday, Qatar reportedly pledged to invest $15 billion in Turkey following a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan and Qatar’s Sheikh Temim bin Hamed Al Sani.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said the main reason Turkey’s crisis is not likely to spread is because Turkey is an outlier.  “It has borrowed more, as a percentage of its economy, in foreign currencies than any other country. There are only a handful of countries that are even close, including Hungary, Argentina, Poland and Chile. Recently, its central bank effectively lost its independence and is now politically unable to take measures that might mitigate the crisis. In other words, Turkey is both more exposed and less able to do something about it than any other country. Notably, while the other exposed countries are also taking hits, no country is as bad as Turkey,” he said in a note.

“The bottom line is that the volatility seen in overseas currency markets does not change the immediate picture for the stock market. The market continues to be driven by improving economic conditions. This is underscored by a report last week showing confidence among small businesses at an all-time record high, which bodes well for continued strength in the labor markets,” Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at


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The anatomy of the recent gold sell off

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

the-anatomy-of-the-recent-gold-sell-offFor the arrow to fly, the bow must be pulled back. Gold is in a pullback at the moment.





More from RTT Tv










Main chart in video.





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Gold PnF




Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future.”..



William D Gann





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..”Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception”..



George Soros





..”It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”..



George Soros







The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The Market Message of the Midterms

 

The Market Message of the Midterms

Courtesy of 

I really liked Ari Wald’s weekly chart book for Oppenheimer this weekend.

Ari is arguing that the put/call ratio has jumped to a pessimistic extreme auguring well for a short-term buying opportunity. He does not believe the downturn in market breadth (NYSE advance-decline line) has put in enough time to serve as confirmation that the top of the 2016-? cyclical rally has peaked.

For my Chart o’ the Day, here’s an interesting look at the current market environment versus the last time we traded through the midterm elections in 2014…

...



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Zero Hedge

Tesla Employees Describe Musk As Polarizing, Wasteful Micromanager In New Expose

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A new CNBC expose on Tesla, the product of conversations with 35 current and former employees, has revealed Elon Musk to be a polarizing and wasteful boss who micromanages too much.

The extended report gives yet another look into a personality and work environment that helps explain the exodus of senior executives that the company has suffered over its short lifespan; it also touches on some "creative" accounting allegedly taking ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Crash Deja Vu? Keep An Eye On This Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Just over 3 weeks ago, I shared a chart looking at the divergence that has been brewing under the surface of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). Since that post, the S&P 500 finds itself in a deep pullback, with other key stock market indices hitting correction territory at their lows.

Today we provide another look at the divergence and highlight why it’s time for investors to pay closer attention. In the chart below, we compare today’s setup to 2000 and 2007 and the market crashes that followed.  Note, though, that we have NOT broken trend support yet.

Similar to today, in 2000 and 2007 the S&P 500 made a...



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Chart School

History Rhymes with the Dow

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The next 10 years, or even the next 2 years will not be like any of the years in the past 10. Risk is moving closer and closer to the surface.

More from RTT Tv

Market risks coming to the surface:

1) Higher interest rates.

2) US Congress control.

3) China vs USA in trade.

4) World wide Leverage.

5) World wide liquidity issues.

6) US Pensions.

7) Corporate bond market....



more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

 

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

Five people died and more than 200 got sick during a 2018 E. coli outbreak, the largest in more than a decade. The bacteria was traced to contaminated romaine lettuce. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University

In the wake of this year’s large E. coli outbreak, Walmart notified its leafy green suppliers that they must be using blockchain technology to trace their products before the end of 2019.

Walmart, one of the world’s largest retailers, has be...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For October 18, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) to report quarterly earnings at $1.27 per share on revenue of $7.15 billion before the opening bell. Philip Morris shares fell 0.07 percent to $84.50 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ...


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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

more from Our Members

Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>