Author Archive for Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Apr 28, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

Another great week for the bulls as a rallies Tuesday and late Friday pushed markets back to the all time high levels!  Earnings “beats” (off lowered expectations) are helping out here:

More than a fifth of the S&P 500 constituents have reported results, with nearly 80% of those companies producing earnings results that topped analysts’ consensus estimates, compared with about 65% in the fourth quarter.  To be sure, that reflects lowered estimates heading into the quarter amid worries about a recession and anemic growth outside of the U.S., amplified by a trade spat between Washington and Beijing.

“Earnings are driving stocks this week, and while we’re seeing better-than-expected earnings overall, it’s clear that expectations were lower than they should have been,” said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.

Not much on the economic front that the market cared about but let’s do a quick talk about GDP.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, well above the 2.3% estimated by economists polled by MarketWatch and faster than the 2.2% rate seen in the fourth quarter. The unusual strength in Friday’s report can be attributed, in part, to a rise in inventories and exports that analysts say aren’t likely to continue in the year ahead, potentially setting the stage for weaker economic growth in the quarters to come.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the NASDAQ 1.9% – that is the 5th straight up week for the NASDAQ.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Investors will get an update on Fed policy and thinking this week, when the central bank concludes a two day policy meeting on Wednesday.  Wednesday also brings ISM Manufacturing.   Friday is the payroll report for April.

Earnings season continues with monster reports from companies such as Apple & Google!

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hit all time highs – it’s been quite a run since Powell said “patience”.

The Russell 2000 remains quite mediocre in light of the other indexes.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator stayed red all week – these divergences are always interesting.

Long term: Things are definitely looking up again.

Charts of interest / Big Movers:

Monday,…
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Trump China trade deal currency component

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

trump-china-trade-deal-currency-componentThe coming Trump trade deal could have an interesting component effecting the US dollar.



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GLD







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss”…



Richard D. Wyckoff





..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..



Philip Fisher





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







..“The key to successful investing is having everyone agree with you — LATER.”..



Jim Grant



..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..



Bernard Baruch













Weekly Market Recap Apr 21, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was the definition of “consolidation” – a period of very little movement and volatility after a large move up to work off overbought conditions.  A slight gap up Tuesday was about it in terms of excitement for the week.  Bulls remain in full control.

We are in the midst of earnings season – it is not a great one but companies have lowered the bar enough that they will “beat”, everyone will clap and cheer, and we continue on.

The first-quarter earnings outlook has improved somewhat, according to CFRA, which said consensus estimates now call for a 2.3% fall in first-quarter operating earnings a share. That is up from the call for a 3% drop ahead of the kickoff of earnings season, but down from the 4.5% increase projected at the end of last year

“The market is completely focused on earnings,” said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer for North Star Investment Management. “Companies really lowered their guidance coming into earnings season, and we’re getting to the point where companies are doing a good job of stepping over that lowered bar.”

“It’s still much too small a sample size to generate conclusions, but the bottom line is that earnings season is not off to a very good start,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report in a research note. “While stocks are looking past that courtesy of dovish Fed speak and hopes of better global growth, earnings will need to get better during the next two weeks—because so far the results, while not a disaster, aren’t that great.”

Not much on the economic front that the market cared about.  Here is some data regarding the Fed’s Beige Book:

Most of the 12 districts monitored by the Fed showed economic activity grew at a “slight-to-moderate” pace in March and early April, according to the central bank’s Beige Book compilation. However, retail and automobile sales were sluggish while the labor market remained tight, increasing upward pressure on wages, indicating conflicting views on the


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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

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Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0

Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

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Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Starting Another Leg Up In Gold (and gold stocks) youtu.be/EPsi9HfZoKk

Date Found: Wednesday, 31 October 2018, 01:24:06 AM

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Comment: Chart master says it’s about to get worse before it gets better.. youtu.be/9UBJRqf-8s0

Date Found: Friday, 02 November 2018, 06:07:13 PM

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Comment: Joseph P. Farrell | The Deep State: Age-Old Struggle Between the Globalist and Nationalist youtu.be/3fl7fe6JFgg

Date Found: Friday, 02 November 2018, 06:17:14 PM

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Comment: Dan Oliver: Nothing Learned From 2008 Financial Crisis? youtu.be/leqqeUGe6Lo

Date Found: Sunday, 04 November 2018, 12:48:28 PM

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Comment: Charles Nenner – Gold Prices Going Up in Coming Deflation youtu.be/bQImqHhOIck

Date Found: Monday, 05 November 2018, 12:43:00 AM

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Comment: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass youtu.be/aCdDjXTrgTQ

Date Found: Sunday, 11 November 2018, 04:40:47 PM

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Comment: NotthManTrader: Ouch!

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, 05:14:45 PM

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Comment: The US Dollar vs Gold: The Final Showdown – Brent Johnson youtu.be/ASvl7St02Qs

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, 05:39:02 PM

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Weekly Market Recap Apr 14, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

It was generally a quiet week as not much progress or rumor on the “Chinese – U.S. trade deal” happened.  Four days of consolidation followed by a gap up Friday on strong bank earnings pre market (along with Disney news).  Markets also got a lift Friday from trade data released by China that showed March exports rose 14.2% from a year earlier versus forecasts calling for a rise of 8.7% and after a sharp drop in February. That said, imports were flagging, reflecting soft domestic demand and the growth spurt in exports may not be sustained.

On Wednesday the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting were released and it was dovish of course:

The Federal Reserve’s decision in March to cease raising interest rates this year was driven by unease over the U.S. and global economies and surprisingly subdued inflation, according to minutes of the pivotal central bank meeting.

“A majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year,” the minutes said.

Willie Delwiche, investment strategist with R.W. Baird said: “The Fed is trying to be transparent and say ‘we’re going to be on hold right now and we are going to give what we’ve done over the past two years time to settle and see what happens. The market seems to think that if you are tilting toward a ‘wait and see policy’ you are actually preparing for rate cuts this year.”

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the NASDAQ 0.6%.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … not via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Earnings get into full swing!  “S&P 500 earnings are expected to post a 4% year-over-year decline for the quarter. This would be the first quarterly year over year decline in earnings since second quarter 2016,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Avalon Advisors LLC, in a note.…
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Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

dow-jones-gann-angle-updateThe Dow Jones has its own manner, some stocks are fast, some stocks are slow and some are in between. No matter the powers behind the scenes Gann Angles will help the chartist with the 'Dow Jones Manner Watch'!

These charts provided by NorthmanTrader clearly showing the puppet master behind the scenes.


NT1
 

and …


NT2
 


With all the above going on we still can see how the Dow Jones migrates to its controlling Gann Angles.

Now what to expect going forward into some of the most difficult months for stocks (New York summer months) is testing action off the 1×2 and 1×1 Gann Angles. You can assume this, the wise will most likely distribute stock float at these recovered price levels (thanks FED), the not so wise will likely assume the FED put will continue to save the day, every day. The black box on the chart is the expected zone for future price action (see blow).

Of course we all see the traditional head and shoulders, but as we can all see this, it is likely to be managed by the puppet masters. And a another 'of course', if the brown 1×1 Gann Angle is broken a down swing swoon of 20% or more can be expected. 
 


Gann dow jones


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic a wealth of knowledge is available via our …
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Weekly Market Recap Apr 7, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

Another week of rallying on similar news we have been rallying on for the past 6 weeks or so now – mostly the Chinese – U.S. trade talks.

“Ninety percent of the deal is done, but the last 10% is the hardest part, it’s the trickiest part and it will require trade-offs on both sides,” said Myron Brilliant, executive vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, adding that talks are in the “endgame stage,” according to the Financial Times.

The Chinese market had an “outside reversal” day (when the price goes both below and above the prior day’s range) to the upside very early in January 2019 – since then it’s been a heck of a ride up.

A solid jobs report Friday was helpful but realistically it wasn’t much of an offset to the disaster number the prior month.  That said with a “patient” Federal Reserve it doesn’t take much to keep bulls content right now.

A very busy week on the economic front.  Monday ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.3 vs a 2 year low of 54.2 the prior month.  That was a welcome sign considering the number was beginning to track towards 50 which is the cut off between growth or retrenchment.

Overseas in China there are 2 manufacturing gauges – one private, one public, both staged rebounds this past month.

The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index, rose to 50.8 in March from 49.9 in February, rebounding to expansionary territory for the first time in four months. Gains for the private gauge came on the heels of China’s official manufacturing PMI released on Sunday, which rose to a six-month high of 50.5 in March from 49.2 in February.

March’s employment data showed that the U.S. economy added 196,000 new jobs, above consensus expectations of 177,000. The Labor Department’s official measure of unemployment held steady at 3.8%.  The government said 33,000 new jobs were created in February instead of 20,000. January’s gain was little changed at…
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Gold and Silver Action Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gold-and-silver-action-reviewWhile the central bankers and leaders talk of more easy money via either lower interest rates or just handing it out by the bucket full [Quantative Easing (QE)], the middle class have no idea they are the muppets at the table. For it is their savings getting debased via money supply expansion, even talk of negative interest rates by US Federal Reserve being stimulative. Yeah that will work, see your $100,000 deposit fall $1000 each year. Is that not theft, Sir! Soon the middle class masses will work out gold an silver will be a good defense against central bank lunacy. 

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Silver ETF (SLV) chart in the video.

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slv

Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index chart in the video (!XAU).

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Cycle HUI

When it gets very real, these prices will move! Watching and waiting.


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…“Stocks create their own field of action and power; power to attract and repel,which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and ‘turn dead’ at other times”…

William D Gann

..”To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate…, producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of


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Weekly Market Recap Mar 31, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

A solid week for the bulls as the panic of the “inverted yield curve” subsided and bears went back to getting mostly spanked.  A big gap up Tuesday followed by a solid rally Friday provided most of the spark.  Optimism about the Chinese-U.S. trade talks seemed to be the contributor for much of the gains – it has been amazing how the market has rallied on that same news over and over.

Global growth continues to show signposts of slowing:

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, meanwhile, showed that profits at industrial firms fell by 14% in January and February, the largest decline since 2011.

The final reading of U.S. gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter was lowered to 2.2% from an estimated 2.6% annualized rate.

Hmm I thought the tax cuts would juice growth to 4%+ and pay for themselves…

The real estate slowdown we’ve been speaking to for about a year is real and increasingly tangible:

Home prices grew at the slowest pace in more than six years, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index rising at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.2% in January compared with December.  Pending home sales fell 4.9% from the year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said. Contract signings for homes have declined on an annual basis for 14 straight months.

The world is slowing but never fear…. central banks will save us (expect to hear a lot of this in the coming year):

“We’re in a period of consolidation as investors digest what is clearly a slowdown in the global economy and yet a very sharp shift in global central bank policy, led by the Fed,” said Carlos Dominguez, chief investment officer at Element Pointe Advisors.

“Stock performance is caught in a tug of war that’s left equities increasingly range bound and volatile,” wrote Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell in an email. “Downside has been limited by increasingly dovish central bank guidance while


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Market Narrative with Supply and Demand

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

market-narrative-with-supply-and-demandYou do need a cunning plan in the markets. First, try to work out the controlling narrative, second then see if it the market agrees with your opinion. Of course it is best that market agrees with you before you act, other wise that would be very lonely and most likely wrong.



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The chart in the video.





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AAPL





Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent. But they did not hit me very hard – they couldn’t, with my shoestring margins.”…



Jesse Livermore





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.





…..“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..



Martin Zweig





..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..



Bernard Baruch











 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

Macron Suffers Huge Blow With Defeat To Le Pen

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In what may be the biggest shock from today's European parliamentary elections, President Emmanuel Macron is set to suffer a blow with French voters set to hand a victory to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, picking the vocal Eurosceptic and nationalist over the former Rothschild banker.

Macron’s En Marche (Republic on The Move) will have just 22.5% of the vote compared with 24% for Le Pen, according to pollsters Ifop. With Macron and Le Pen neck and neck ahead of the elections, the outcome will be a...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>