Author Archive for Chart School

Bulls Take The Day’s Honors

Courtesy of Declan

While bulls shrugged off the latest Trump missive there was no reversal in markets to change their prior directions with one exception.

The Semiconductor Index is still clinging on to 1,380 resistance but today's close posted a bullish hammer with a spike low at the 50-day MA. Expectations for tomorrow would be a rally break of the latter resistance and a push to triangle resistance.
 


The S&P enjoyed a small bullish engulfing pattern. It's not a reversal pattern as the market is not oversold but it could offer a day-trade bounce; stops go on a loss of 2,795. Upside target is channel resistance.
 


The Nasdaq dug in at support and traders who wanted to buy breakout support had yet another chance today; stops go on a loss off 7,775.
 

 

The Nasdaq 100 tagged breakout support with 7,300 the stop level. Technicals are mixed with On-Balance-Volume flipping in what has been a scrappy six months but relative performance is accelerating ahead of speculative Small Caps.
 


The Russell 2000 still has a double top to negate but with it simmering just below resistance there is a good chance the week could finish with a breakout. Technicals are good with a MACD trigger 'buy', positive +DI and overbought stochastics.
 


 
Overall, it looks like markets are ready to move higher in unison; this will negate whatever residual shorting opportunities are in play for the Semiconductor Index and Russell 2000. Today's lows should offer a protective area for a near term long trade.

 





No Change; Breakouts Hold for Large Caps and Techs – Small Caps Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday didn’t bring a change in markets as the S&P, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 held their breakouts while the S&P struggled to negate its double top.

The S&P lost a little ground but remains well above breakout support. The biggest loss was seen in relative performance but only because the index has suffered an extended period of relative decline and had only begun to reverse that.

The Nasdaq also held its breakout but has less wiggle room to defend support. There was a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume but not enough to suggest bears have control. Relative performance is still good if a little weaker than it was in June; maybe some extended double top but don’t jump the gun just yet.

The Nasdaq 100 also triggered a ‘sell’ in On-Balance-Volume but other technicals are good and relative performance is still gaining against Small Caps.

Feeding into Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 performance is the Semiconductor Index. This is still siding with bears (if only just) with 1,380 and 50-day MA key resistance. This is still a short play even if the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are still playing to breakouts.

The Russell 2000 is the one index which isn’t enjoying the same performance as Tech and Large Caps. If the latter index is mounting a double top then the current rally from last week can’t go any further. Shorts can enter on 1,696 with a stop above 1,710 and a target of 1,610.  Technicals are all in the green (bullish) with the exception of the recent sharp loss in relative performance (bearish).

In terms of the longer term charts I’m looking at the relationship between Transports and the Dow Jones Industrials Average. The lack of performance from Transports is somewhat problematic as the ratio shifts sideways in a consolidation pattern.  A secular bull market will require leadership from Transports and this index has struggled to participate in the gains of lead indices.…
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Weekly Market Recap Jul 22, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Generally a calm week for the indexes as most of the action was in individual stocks due to earnings.  President Trump did roil things a bit by criticizing the Federal Reserve – seen as a no no, but at this point nothing should surprise from that front.

In a stinging and historically rare criticism, President Donald Trump expressed frustration with the Federal Reserve and said the central bank could disrupt the economic recovery.  Presidents rarely intercede when it comes to the Fed, which sets the benchmark interest rate that flows through to many types of consumer debt.

Trump said he’s concerned that the timing may be poor and that it will put the U.S. at a “disadvantage” while the Fed’s counterparts like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan maintain loose monetary policy.

The president acknowledged that his comments are unusual but said he doesn’t care.  “Now I’m just saying the same thing that I would have said as a private citizen,” he said. “So somebody would say, ‘Oh, maybe you shouldn’t say that as president.’ I couldn’t care less what they say, because my views haven’t changed.”

Friday, Trump said he was “ready” to put tariffs on all Chinese goods imported to the U.S., which would amount to more than $500 billion.  Thursday,  Trump threatened “tremendous retribution” against the European Union and stood by a pledge to levy tariffs on automobile imports.  So we see the same pattern here as we often do – when Trump first comes out saying these type of things markets reacted sharply — then after they hear them for months on end, they get a bit immune to it all.

Nothing too surprising from Chairman Powell’s testimony on Capital Hill as he indicated the Federal Reserve wouldn’t move too quickly in changing monetary policy, and that it would be flexible in the face of changing conditions.

Saying that monetary policy “should be a mystery to no one,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell


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Gann Angles on Dow and Gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gann-angles-on-dow-and-goldGann Angles measure price moves relative to time.



The Dow is moving up the red Gann 1×1 line, so far the recent trend challenge has been over come. As price is near upper green dotted channel Gann angle from Oct 2007 price is now over bought. We can also see the very obvious Elliot 5 wave count from March 2009 lows, and a new Dow high would complete the 5 waves up.



The red line indicator below the Dow price chart is readtheticker.com RTT Flow Index.





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Dow




Gold (GLD) could not get over $130, so a reaction back to minor support at $115 was to be expected.  Support should be found here, and a significant cycle low. August to September 2018 may see gold turn higher.





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gold








Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world.  But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer.  They will die poor.”…



Jesse Livermore





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





..”A radical is one who speaks the truth.”..



Charles August Lindbergh Snr



In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.



Benjamin Graham





..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..



Warren Buffet











Small Caps Enjoy Best of Action

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn’t a whole lot going on today except Small Caps were able to attract some buyers despite finishing below resistance; bulls have been taking advantage of the 20-day MA test. Today’s action coincided with ‘buy’ signals in the MACD and +DI/-DI.






The S&P held its breakout and today’s losses – despite higher volume selling – didn’t do a whole lot of damage.





The Nasdaq also held its breakout but has less wiggle room than the S&P. The index has a slight advantage in relative performance against the S&P.  Those believing in the breakout could be buyers here but don’t hang on if there is an acceleration down through 7,800.





The Nasdaq 100 has more wiggle room and despite some relative performance loss there does appear to be a turnaround. Again, the index clocked up some distribution selling but it was not convincing.





The Semiconductor Index is still the watch index for Tech indices. I have redrawn it as a consolidation triangle with minor resistance at 1,375; the index suggests a second shorting opportunity with the 50-day MA lending weight to this play. How this plays out will influence the breakouts for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.





The Dow Jones drifted back a little but remains in course for channel resistance.





For tomorrow, look to the Russell 2000 to break to new highs and for the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P to hold their breakouts. The margins are fine but if the Russell 2000 can regain some relative momentum it may be the value play into the Fall.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









S&P Firms Breakout As Tech Keep The Pressure On

Courtesy of Declan.

Given overnight news and Netflix disappointment I was surprised to see markets finish as strong as they did given comments on the economy by the Fed Chairman.




The S&P opened at support and ‘engulfed’ the prior day’s trading; it’s not a true bullish engulfing pattern as this is a reversal pattern and what we have is a breakout but it does contribute to a confirmation of the breakout.






The Dow Jones is inching towards channel resistance. In the context of other indices, it was a low key day.





The Nasdaq threatened a nasty double top after the market gapped down but a strong push into the close retained the breakout.





Opportunists could have taken advantage of the gap down in the Nasdaq 100 as it started picture-perfectly at breakout support. Some traders did get lucky as volume climbed to register as accumulation.





The biggest gain was in the Semiconductor Index but it didn’t quite negate the breakdown. I would be looking for shorts to attack this tomorrow with the 20-day and 50-day MA overhead.





The Russell 2000 is firming support at the 20-day MA and the risk:reward is looking better here for longs wanting to prebuy a challenge on resistance. Technicals are still mixed and relative performance remains weak but it looks good.





For tomorrow, aggressive shorts can look to the Semiconductor Index but if Tech indices hold their breakouts it could drag the Semiconductor Index higher. Indeed, the Nasdaq 100 had offered the clearest buying opportunity today which finished in the green.  The Russell 2000 is struggling a little below resistance but the lack of attention could be beneficial for those looking for a low-risk buying opportunity.  There are chances here but markets are at a bit of a crossroads.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Week Finishes in Tech and Large Caps Favour

Courtesy of Declan.

Large Caps and Tech indices enjoyed a good week with breakouts holding by Friday’s close. There was no real volume on the breakouts but new highs leave markets in a position to attract sideline money.




The S&P didn’t do a whole lot on Friday but it remains on course to test channel resistance. Technicals are all in the green and the previous period of underperformance against the Russell 2000 looks to have shifted back in Large Caps favour.






The Nasdaq didn’t quite convince on its breakout but On-Balance-Volume has managed a new reaction high while other technicals are bullish. Wednesday’s swing low is the risk level for new buyers and there is likely value for a long trade based on Friday’s finish.





The Nasdaq 100 had the stronger breakout of the two Tech indices. It will run into resistance before other indices but also has the most room to defend support.





The index struggling a little for attention is the Russell 2000. While Friday’s broader market gains were small they didn’t get as far as the Small Caps index. The double top remains in play and aside from relative performance, other technicals are okay.





For tomorrow, bears will be looking to push nascent breakouts back below their latter support levels and generate a new round of ‘bull traps’ (shorting opportunities). Profit taking is also likely. However, if sellers fail to make their presence felt in early morning trading sideline bulls will become encouraged to step in and bid markets higher; Wednesday’s swing lows will become ‘stop’ levels for measuring risk (vs potential reward).




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jul 15, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator flipped to black late in the week prior to the last, and usually that bodes well short term.  Indeed that foreshadowed a nice week. TRADE WARS ™!!!! certainly seems like a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event.

“Given the rhetoric over the past few weeks, it seems like the probability of a trade war has increased. However, in the short term I still think there’s a relatively low probability that one will actually occur. And in the meantime, U.S. economic data has been good, and the Street knows this will be a good year for earnings,” said Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“With the prospect of a positive earnings season ahead of us, investors seem to have forgotten the threat of further trade tensions,” said Konstantinos Anthis, head of research at ADS Securities, in a note Tuesday.

Wednesday was the one day the indexes took a hit (momentarily) after the White House late Tuesday said it would assess 10% tariffs on a further $200 billion in Chinese goods.

The new tariffs won’t take effect for at least two months, administration officials said, giving U.S. industry time to comment on the products selected for levies — and for the two sides to start a new round of talks.

“This is different from the other trade announcements, because the size is significantly larger, and because China is unable to directly reciprocate at $200 billion because they don’t import that much. It’s unclear what it might do next, but it is clearly another step closer to a full-blown trade war,” said David Carter, who oversees about $2 billion as chief investment officer at Lenox Wealth Advisors.

Bloomberg reported late Wednesday that officials from both countries have raised the prospects of restarting a conversation at a high level.

Earnings season began in earnest Friday with financials – earnings are set to explode this quarter on the back of massive tax cuts enacted…
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Reading the tape of ticker CVR Partners (UAN)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

reading-the-tape-of-ticker-cvr-partners-uanThis stock is going from very bad, to bad, but this change is good enough to change share price.





More from RTT Tv










Reference turnaroundstockinvesting.com, fundamentals for CVR Partners (readtheticker.com is not a member nor has any association to this service).












Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss.  Never average losses.  Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”..



Jesse Livermore





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..”It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”..



George Soros







..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..



Warren Buffett





..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..



Philip Fisher











Tech Indices Ignore Semiconductor Weakness to Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech Indices are not waiting on the Semiconductor Index aa both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 closed at new all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 had the best response with a clear breakout. This move accelerated the relative advance against the Russell 2000 setting things up nicely for a challenge of upper channel resistance.






The Nasdaq also enjoyed an uptick against the S&P as it inched a new high. Volume climbed to register accumulation. Technicals are all net bullish.





The S&P also generated a breakout which was enough to negate the ‘bull trap’. Relative performance continued its recovery after four months of decline. As with Tech indices, the upside target is channel resistance.





The index with work to do is the Russell 2000. It was able to make some ground but not to the same degree as Tech and Large Cap indices. The double top remains in play and with relative performance moving sharply lower, Small Caps could struggle to attract buyers.





For tomorrow, bulls are back in the driving seat after yesterday’s whipsaw short trades in Tech indices. With relative performance moving away from Small Caps to Tech and potentially Large Cap indices new trading opportunities are starting to emerge.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Tesla's Board Throws Elon Musk Under The Bus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One of the key questions to emerge from Elon Musk's going private "funding secured" fiasco, is where was the board before, during and after the series of torrid tweets sent out by the Tesla CEO in the past two weeks.  In an overnight NYT article, we finally get a fairly clear picture of what was going on through the heads of the company's board of directors, and it's not pretty.

While we urge readers to skim the full piece here, below ...



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Phil's Favorites

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

 

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

A firefighter runs while trying to save a home near Lakeport, Calif. on July 31, 2018. AP Photo/Noah Berger, File

Courtesy of Edward Struzik, Queen's University, Ontario

Shortly after my book “Firestorm, How Wildfire Will Shape Our Future” was published in late 2017, I received a flurry of invitations to speak about the challenges of dealing with fires that are burning bigger, hotter, more often — and in increasingly unpredictable ways.

The invitations came from all over, from Los Angeles to Whiteh...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bond 12-month divergence matter this time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Above compares the Pimco High Yield Fund (PHDAX) to the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 24-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2000.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 7-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2007.

Junk bonds have been diverging from the S&P 500 for the past 12-months. Will it be different this time?

At this time “It Doesn’t Matter Until It M...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Incrementally Bullish On Salesforce, Says MuleSoft Deal Underappreciated

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday Insider Buys Of The Week: AT&T, GE, Salesforce ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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ValueWalk

Hedge Funds Spending Close To $1M A Year On Alternative Data, But Show Me The Alpha

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It should come as no surprise to ValueWalk readers that alternative data has an obsolescence value that is negatively correlated to adoption rates. While we have noted data value dropping as usage and knowledge rise, a known concept in the hedge fund industry. What has been unknown until now is the levels to which fund managers must go to ensure the value of their alternative data does not get lost to the dulling mainstream consensus.

...

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Biotech

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety - and reports of 'genome vandalism'

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety – and reports of 'genome vandalism'

A standee of the movie ‘Rampage’ at a theater in Bangkok, Thailand. Scientists in the film used CRISPR to create a monster. By Sarunyu L/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jianhua Luo, University of Pittsburgh

A movie just recently released called “Rampage” features Dwayne “The Rock” Jo...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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