Author Archive for Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Another disaster week for the markets, and one of the worst this writer can remember since the financial crisis.  Indeed this was the worst one week performance for the S&P 500 since 2011 and NASDAQ since October 2008!  Not even a more “dovish” Fed could save it Wednesday; definitely a change of character.  All the charts continue to point to bad signs – that said in the near term the market is EXTREMELY oversold and vicious rallies can and do happen within downtrends but aside from the nimblest of traders it remains a time of caution.   Maybe Santa can bring some rallying this week.

The Fed announced its fourth interest-rate increase of the year, hiking the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, and deepened those losses during a press conference where Chairman Powell explained the decision and accompanying forecasts.   The central bank now pencils in two rate hikes in 2019, not the three moves seen in September, and it still forecasts just one more hike for 2020.

Of particular concern was Powell’s discussion of the Fed’s quantitative tightening program, which is now removing $50 billion of federal government debt and mortgage bonds from the central bank’s balance sheet.  Powell reiterated in his news conference that balance-sheet reduction would remain on “autopilot,” suggesting that even if the U.S. economy deteriorates significantly, as many market participants are predicting will happen next year, financial conditions will nevertheless become tighter month-by-month.

“The immediate market reaction has been that the statement is less dovish than anticipated,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “Perhaps people had unrealistic expectations about what the Fed would say.”

“I would characterize the Fed’s statement as dovish, but perhaps not as dovish as the market hoped,” said Peter Berezin senior vice president of global investment strategy at BCA research.

Economic news was not market moving so we’ll ignore it.

If you care about “bear market” definitions (which are a bit silly) –…
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Knowing this in ones youth, helps!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

knowing-this-in-ones-youth-helpsFundamentals and market timing does matter. Timing may not be perfect but getting the big turns correct over a 30 year investment career sure does help!



More from RTT Tv



Knowing which price cycles work in the market you follow is very important!



Previous blog posts on the subject:

The Power of the Dow Jones Cycle

Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility













Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”I did not know then what I learned later, what made me fifteen years later, wait two long weeks and see a stock on which I was very bullish go up thirty points before I felt that it was safe to buy it. I was broke and was trying to get back, and so I waited. That was in 1915.”…



Jesse Livermore





..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..



Philip Fisher





…”This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”…



Charles August Lindbergh Snr





..”Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception”..



George Soros





…..“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..



Martin Zweig











Weekly Market Recap Dec 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A significant selloff Friday had bears continuing to enjoy December and calls for the bulls for the Federal Reserve to save them.  It’s been a very long time since bears have had the upper hand for such an extended period.  Volatility continues to be very high and the charts continue to say “remain in safety”.  The Russell 2000 – the laggard of 2018 – broke a yearly low set in February and the S&P 500 broke October lows to create a “lower low”.

Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist with Voya Investment Management, said that disappointing economic data out of China was the biggest driver of Friday’s losses. “The Chinese data was a dirt sandwich, not because it showed deceleration in the Chinese economy, but because it’s showing that all the stimulus they’ve done can’t turn it around.”  She argued that the losses snowballed throughout the day because “people are worried that we will reach technical indicators” that could trigger a bout of algorithmic selling.

“Indeed, investors are right to be worried about global growth as China economy continues to sputter,” said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trading at Oanda, in a note to clients. “The data lend support to the market’s view that things will get worse in China before they get better, this despite investment rising.”

Go …. utilities (again)?

On the economic front, Chinese export growth slowed dramatically month over month (+5.4% in November vs +15.6% in October) which led to a big selloff early Monday.  Industrial output and retail sales in China, announced late in the week also were weaker, leading to Friday’s selling.  U.S. retail sales rose a better than expected 0.2%, even as October sales growth was revised up to 1.1%.

For the week the S&P 500 fell 1.2% while the NASDAQ dropped 0.8%.  The S&P 500 is now down 2.8% for the year while the NASDAQ clings to a 0.1% gain.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … …
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Newmont Mining Gann Angles

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

newmont-mining-gann-anglesNewmont Mining (NEM) is a gold stock with plenty of institutional interest. This means due to its huge following it is a good candidate for Gann Angles.

Gold and gold stocks are waiting for the FED and other central banks to swing to dovish monetary policy, Powell hinted this in last speech, and next week the FED is expected to hike 0.25% to 2.5%, however the 3 previously planned hikes in 2019 look very doubtful. 

In short the hike from near 0% to 2.5% is all the US economy can take, as things start to break (ie corporate credit funding stuff like share buy backs.) with the US 10 yr above 3%. A concern to Powell is the US stock market gain contributes to a huge amount of tax revenue to the US treasury and higher interest rates will take this away (April 2019 is tax time), therefore Powell will take great care not to break the stock market. 

There is a monetary policy change coming in 2019, a swing to more dovish tone which should support gold and gold stocks. 

Newmont Mmining Gann and Wyckoff Chart is one to keep am eye on. 

NEM


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street, even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.”..

Jesse Livermore

..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Dec 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Bears are certainly showing the type of strength we haven’t seen in a long time.   A week ago at this time futures were surging on news of a “truce” for 90 days between China and the U.S. in their trade spat.  But the charts were still not saying lovely things despite a major rally the week prior.   And by Tuesday, darkness had descended back on the indexes, with another gut punch Friday.    A lot of emphasis was put on a long term Treasury yield dropping below a shorter term Treasury.

On Monday, the yield on five year government debt slid below the yield on three year debt, a phenomenon which has preceded previous recessions, and a sign that investors are more confident about current than future economic growth as the Federal Reserve raises rates.

The “two year” vs the “ten year” Treasury yield a lot of people like to watch and that hit its narrowest spread in 11 years.

There is no rush to be involved heavily in this market until this volatility sorts itself.    The obvious near term “upside drivers” now would be (a) a real trade peace between U.S. and China and (b) the market’s favorite thing – an easier Fed; in this case that would entail signals to the market that the rate hikes forecast for 2019 are no longer in the cards.   The latter is ALREADY being floated out to the investing community as the Fed has become a lackey for the market the past 20 years.

It’s always helpful to watch what major sectors are “strong” – in this case the type of sectors that institutional money flees into – utilities and consumer staples are holding up.

Meanwhile “growthy” areas like tech and industrials are sagging.

This whole move down was started by a spike in yields such as the 10 year – even with a big retreat this past week, the market did not respond…
continue reading





Golds Xmas Gift

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

golds-xmas.gif?lastmodified=201812030000tThree things have tweaked the fundamentals for gold.

1) Bitcoin is not attracting the hot cash, unlike 2016.

2) Fed's Powell dovish switch, now less expectations for interest rate hikes in 2019.

3) China to import more goods from the USA, hence more US Dollars required.

The question now is will this move gold back to resistance before year end? 

Gann angles look good, cycle looks attractive, now we wait for volume and a price to break into new ground. Profits could be golden for Xmas.

Gann Angles


Gold Gann
 

Cycle picture
 

Gold Cycle
 

Some interest comments from Luke Gromen on the subject post Dec 2018 G20.
 


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff and
Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

Investing Quotes…

..“The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes…. The examination of a losing trade is tortuous but necessary to ensure that it will not happen again.”..

Jesse Livermore

.."It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong"..

George Soros

.."Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected"..

George Soros

.."Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception"..

George Soros

.."Money can't buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery"..

Spike Milligan





Weekly Market Recap Dec 02, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Looks like the Thanksgiving week rally missed it’s usual target by a week!  Optimism of a trade war halt with China carried markets up through the week and as of Sunday evening futures were surging once more as a 90 day stay of execution on the next round of tariffs was agreed to.   Giant rallies Monday and Wednesday – with a huge surge mid day intraday Wednesday – helped rocket the indexes to spectacular gains.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Wednesday and his comments on interest rates were considered quite dovish.  This led to the largest gain in the S&P 500 since March 26th! While it has not been so pronounced the last year or two – over the past decade whenever the market dare sell off – the Federal Reserve always has come to the rescue with words or actions!

“Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy — that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth,” said Powell during a speech at the Economic Club of New York.   The comments were viewed by investors as a retreat from his stance in early October when he had said that the central bank “may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.”

Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said Powell did exactly what he needed to do. “He calmed the nerves of investors worried about policy overshoot and retained all the flexibility [he] had before he started talking,” he said.

“As is typical with this market, the Fed chair gave an inch and the market took a yard,” wrote Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.

Trading in fed funds futures imply an 83% chance of a hike in December, but just one more hike in 2019. The Fed’s dot plot implies three interest rate hikes in 2019.

More Federal Reserve as…
continue reading





Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-is-so-like-1979-silverYip, Bitcoin smashed up and smashed down, yet the final wash out is still to come.

More from RTT Tv

Reference from video content link: HyperWave
 


 

Silver match up:


Silver
 

And a reminder of Bitcoin cycle.
 

Cycle bitcoin
 

Another view (no association)
 


And more here (take note around the 5 min mark on OTC)


 


 

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff and
Ney logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

Investing Quotes…

“My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle.  The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market.  The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented – and it pays the biggest jackpot…it was never the money that drove me.  It was the game, solving the puzzle, beating the market that had confused and confounded the greatest minds in history.  For me, that passion, the juice, the exhilaration was in beating the game, a game that was a living dynamic riddle"..

Jesse Livermore

"A radical is one who speaks the truth."..

Charles August Lindbergh Snr

“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..

Bernard Baruch

“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch

“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..

Martin Zweig





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Tuesday, 07 April 2015, 03:17:31 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: The FED to increase rate with the above numbers, yeah right! If they do wont be for long!

Date Found: Sunday, 17 June 2018, 12:44:41 AM

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Comment: Bubble bubble, pop!

Date Found: Wednesday, 20 June 2018, 02:33:58 PM

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Comment: Craig Hemke – Parabolic Global Debt Will Collapse Bullion Bank System youtu.be/L5tdGmyVjtk

Date Found: Saturday, 23 June 2018, 02:51:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Removing The Private Central Bank Is A Challenge, Those Who Tried Were shot! youtu.be/5-3a9k-utdw

Date Found: Sunday, 24 June 2018, 10:00:27 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Fred Hickey: There’s Now Another Technology Bubble Far Larger Than The 2000 youtu.be/OwNu3s6Ikvc

Date Found: Wednesday, 27 June 2018, 12:15:04 AM

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Comment: Its different this time dude!

Date Found: Wednesday, 27 June 2018, 12:19:30 AM

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Comment: Another view

Date Found: Thursday, 28 June 2018, 02:07:05 PM

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Comment: Mind The Trap Door: When overvalued, overbought, overbullish market action is joined by unfavorable market internals, tepid participation among individual stocks, a confirmed Hindenburg syndrome, and a recent leadership reversal.

Date Found: Thursday, 28 June 2018, 02:14:32 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: This is easily the most important chart in macro, & signals the most important macro rule change in 70 yrs. Those citing risks of “foreign UST buying boycotts” ignoring that global CBs haven’t bought USTs in 4 yrs. Mainstream just now starting…
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Weekly Market Recap Nov 25, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

For whatever reason over the years Thanksgiving week tends to be market positive, especially the days bracketing Thursday.  While we did see a nice rally Wednesday, the selling Monday and Tuesday did not make for a nice week for the bulls.   In fact, this was the worst Thanksgiving week since 2011.  For those with shorter term time frames there is no reason not to have a lot of cash raised here as there has been a lot of technical damage, and it’s going to take time to fix it.  And now we are starting to see some worrying technical signs for the long term as well.  On the news front, nothing new – worries about trade with China, global growth slowing etc were offered as the main culprits.

Oil again had a rough week with Friday’s rout (worst day since 2015) capping off the week.  This is now 7 down weeks in a row, and on pace for the worst month in a decade.

Crude oil’s bear market worsened Friday, as investors wrestled with growing output from the U.S., President Donald Trump’s entreaties to key producers to keep prices lower, and generally rising inventories, despite a recent cold snap in many oil-consuming regions.

About that Bitcoin….

For the week the S&P 500 fell 3.8% while the NASDAQ plummeted 4.4%.

In economic news, durable goods fell by 4.4% in October, the largest decline in 15 months, and below expectations for a 3.4% decline.  The report also showed orders for “core” capital orders falling slightly, further signaling a slowing in business investment.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … not via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Whatever the news flow, the technicals are saying be wary on every time frame.   If you are a retail fiend, in store traffic apparently was down year over year 1.7% Thursday/Black Friday but online sales up mid 20% range.

There is a G20 meeting, along with some Fed speakers –…
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Zero Hedge

'Hedge Fund Hotel' Arconic Crashes 25% As Sale Plan Abandoned

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Widely-held by hedge funds (e.g. Elliott Mgmnt with 52mm shares), aerospace company Arconic has decided to no longer pursue a potential sale of the company. The shares are down over 25% pre-market...

What changed in 4 days?

Jan.18: Arconic Hopes to Finalize Sale to Apollo This Weekend: NY Post

    ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P and Crude both testing key breakout levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the last 100-days, as each looks to have peaked at the same time around the 1st of October at (1).

After peaking together in October, Crude fell over 40% and the S&P nearly declined 20%, with both bottoming on Christmas Eve at each (2).

Both have experienced counter-trend rallies since the lows, as Crude is up 23% and the S&P 13%.

These rallies have both testing dual resist...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For January 22, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to report quarterly earnings at $1.95 per share on revenue of $20.17 billion before the opening bell. Johnson & Johnson shares gained 0.1 percent to $130.80 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect IBM Common Stock (NYSE: ...


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Phil's Favorites

Martin Luther King Jr., union man

 

Martin Luther King Jr., union man

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the picket line at the Scripto plant in Atlanta, Ga., December, 1964. AP

Courtesy of Peter Cole, Western Illinois University

If Martin Luther King Jr. still lived, he’d probably tell people to join unions.

King understood racial equality was inextricably linked to economics. He asked, “What good does it do to be able to eat at a lunch counter if you can’t buy a hamburger?”

Those disadvantages have persisted. Tod...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 20, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

After entering the week quite overbought, indexes took a small retreat Monday before hurling back upwards.  This is typical of the “V” shaped moves up after any significant selloff, we’ve seen most of the past decade and watching them unfurl is quite amazing actually.  Thought maybe this time would be “different” but not so much.  So two week’s ago we asked “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problem in 1 speech?” – and thus far the market has answered resoundingly yes.  The word of the year thus far in 2019 is “patience” as that simple insert into a speech change the whole complexion of everything.

China has also been busy stimulating; on Tuesday:

An announcement from the People’s Bank of China that ...



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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>