Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Euro Currency Break-Down? Commodity Bulls Hope Not!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The recent rally in the Euro currency (EURUSD) has drawn the attention of forex traders, macro investors, and the commodities market. The latter has struggled over the past decade due to a falling Euro / rising US Dollar situation.

As you can see in today’s “monthly” chart, the Euro has been trading within a wide falling channel (1) for more than a decade.

But a multi-month rally in the Euro has given life to the fallen currency, as well as commodity bulls.

The rally brought the Euro all the way back to its overhead channel resistance line at (2). But the Euro has stumbled a bit in 2021 and is now attempting to break its 18-month rising trend line support at (3).

If this happens, it will bearish for the Euro (and bullish for the U.S. Dollar). It could also suggest that the commodity rally is peaking! Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original article CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Commodities Counter-Trend Rally Going To End Here?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The rise in commodities prices has investors (and consumers) concerned about inflation again, with bond prices falling and bond yields rising. It also has investors on watch for breakouts and trading opportunities in select commodities.

Today, we take a look at an important broad index for this asset class: The Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index. It’s nearing an important long-term juncture, so it’s a “quarterly” price chart.

As you can see, commodities have been trading within a falling channel (marked by each 1) over the past 13 years. BUT last year’s reversal has spurred 4 straight quarters of gains and this commodity index is testing a key confluence of price resistance.

Line (2) has served as price support and resistance over the past 23-years! Price is testing this resistance at the same time that it is testing the top of the falling channel line at (3).

Whether it be Energy, Grains, or Precious Metals… it sure seems like commodities are nearing a very important juncture in time and price! What happens here will send an important message to commodities and bonds. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Indicator Hanging Onto Support By A Thread! Gold Bulls Pay Attention!!!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Gold about to receive a very important bull/bear signal this month? Looks like it!

This chart takes a peek at the Gold/U.S. Dollar ratio over the past 15-years. The ratio double topped at (1) and once it broke support in 2013, it declined sharply over the next 24-months.

It peaked in August of last year at (2), where it appears to have created another double top.

The decline over the past 7-months has it testing the 10-year support level at (3).

The Gold/US$ ratio is hanging onto support by a thread this month. Gold bulls should be aware how important it is for Gold that this support holds!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil About To Decline 50% Following Triple Top, Wonders Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the stage set for Crude Oil to experience a decline of at least 50%? Possible

This chart looks at Crude Oil on a monthly basis over the past 20-years.

Crude oil created a Triple top over a 2-year period (2012 -2014), then selling pressure drove it down nearly 70% in the next two years.

Crude Oil could be creating another triple top over the past 2-years.

So far this month, Crude looks to be attempting to create a bearish reversal pattern! The month is far from complete at this time. Where Crude Oil ends the month, could send a very important message from this key commodity!!!

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If support breaks at (1), look for selling pressure to push Crude Oil lower!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Most Important Price Point For Tech Stocks Since Dot.com Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are tech stocks hitting a long-term level that could become historically important? Possible!

This chart looks at the Semiconductor/S&P 500 ratio, on a monthly basis, over the past 20-years. The ratio peaked and rolled over in 2000, sending a bearish message to the tech sector.

How did tech stocks perform once this ratio started reflecting weakness in 2000? The Nasdaq lost over 80% of its value in the next two years.

Currently, the trend for the ratio is up as it has been in a bull market for the past 11-years, creating higher lows and higher highs. This ratio at this time is NOT sending a bearish message!!!

The bullish trend currently is testing the 2000 highs again, as monthly momentum (top chart) is at the highest level in history.

Is the ratio double topping and about to send an important message to tech stocks and the broad markets? Odds are low at this time that the trend is about to reverse.

Bottom line; If the ratio breaks below support at (1), odds increase this ratio is sending a very important message to tech stocks and the S&P 500!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Reversal Of Fortune? Bank Index Testing 14-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

While the 2008 Financial Crisis may be tucked neatly away in history, the devastating blows that the banks took in 2008 still linger today.

This is evident by how severely bank stocks have lagged the broader stock market since the Financial Crisis low in 2009. But not all is lost. In fact, things may be turning up for the Financial Sector and bank stocks. And today’s chart 2-pack highlights why.

Below is a split look at long-term “monthly” charts of the Bank Index (BKX) and the ratio of the Bank Index (BKX) / S&P 500 Index (SPX).

As you can see, the Bank Index is testing its pre-Financial Crisis highs (left chart). Not a great accomplishment, considering that the S&P 500 is over 2.5x where it traded at the 2007 high.

BUT a bank breakout IS a big deal to market bulls; as a rule of thumb, it’s always good to have the financial sector leading.

The ratio performance chart on the right highlights the decade-long weakness in the banking sector. But, as you can see, this chart also is facing a big breakout test at 12-year resistance (marked by its falling trend line and prior lateral support line).

So is it time for the banks to shine? Only if the bulls see a long-awaited breakout this spring. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil and Emerging Markets Testing 13-Year Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Crude Oil and Emerging Markets have experienced several important highs and lows near the same time over the past 20-years.

Both peaked at the same time in 2008 and each declined over 60%.

They both peaked again in 2014 and declined over 40% each.

Crude oil is testing 13-year falling resistance and Emerging markets (EEM) are testing 2017 highs at the same time at each (1).

At this time, these tests come into play as resistance.

How they handle these levels will send investors an important message about inflation and interest rates!

If both would break out at each (1), look for Energy and Emerging Market stocks to move much higher.

In my humble opinion, we haven’t seen this important of a price test for each in years and years!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Government Bond Bear Market About To Get Worse, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The bond market has had a bad 12-months, as interest rates bottomed in March of 2020. Popular Government Bond ETF (TLT) has lost more than 15% in the past year!

Are bonds about to receive more bad news? Sure could!!!

This chart from Marketsmith looks at the Inverse Government bond ETF (TBF) on a weekly basis. It has been a poor choice to own for years and years, as falling interest rates have pushed is lower.

Its long-term trend could be changing as it looks to be creating a bottoming pattern over the past 14-months and the recent rally in TBF now has it above its 10 & 40-week moving averages.

It is now testing its 2019 lows at the top of this cup pattern at the line (1), as relative strength continues to move higher off deeply oversold levels.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If TBF breaks out at (2), look for the bear market in bonds to accelerate. 

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil About To Peak at 13-Year Resistance?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Commodities prices have rallied sharply higher into 2021, lead recently by energy and grains.

Today, we focus in on one universally important commodity: Crude Oil.

As you know, Crude Oil is heavily watched due to its importance to the economy, prospects of inflation, as well as how investors perceive the stock market.

Today is no different… especially because the rally in crude oil is testing a very important price resistance area this month.

The long-term “monthly” chart of Crude Oil (below), highlights a major breakout test this month. Not only is Crude Oil testing its long-term down-trend line at (1), but also the 2019 double top at (2) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at (3). Wow, that’s one heck of a confluence of price resistance!

Will oil prices cool off… or breakout?

In our humble opinion, what crude oil does at (3) will send an important message to Commodities, Stocks, and Bonds!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





China Creates Back To Back Bearish Patterns At 6-Year Resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could China be sending an important message to stocks around the world? Very possible!

This chart looks at the Shangai Index on a monthly basis since the early 2000s.

The index has peaked twice in the past 6-yeas at its 50% Fibonacci retracement level. These peaks took place in 2015 and 2017 and were followed by declines of at least 25%.

The past two months it has tested this 6-year resistance line/50% Fibonacci level, where it created back-to-back monthly bearish reversal patterns.

If the index closes much below rising support at the end of the month at (1), it sends a cautionary message to stocks around the world. Keep a close eye on China for the next few weeks, as it could send an important message to stocks in the states!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Politics

Why this trial was different: Experts react to guilty verdict for Derek Chauvin

 

Why this trial was different: Experts react to guilty verdict for Derek Chauvin

A woman reacts to the news that Derek Chauvin was found guilty on all three counts in the murder of George Floyd. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Courtesy of Alexis Karteron, Rutgers University - Newark ; Jeannine Bell, Indiana University; Rashad S...



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Phil's Favorites

There's Coin on the Sidelines

 

There’s Coin on the Sidelines

Courtesy of The Reformed Broker

Subscribe!

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:

  • Momentum Crash – ARKK relative strength vs the S&P 500
  • Earth’s Best Employer – Is Bezos the greatest founder/CEO ever?
  • Clubhouse – Dying or thriving?
  • $100 Millio...


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Zero Hedge

EU Walks Back Embarrassing Claim Of 150,000 Russian Troops Near Ukraine Border

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The European Union had to correct a claim made by its foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, concerning Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. Borrell told reporters on Monday that there were "over 150,000"&nb...



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Biotech/COVID-19

No, vaccine side effects don't tell you how well your immune system will protect you from COVID-19

 

No, vaccine side effects don't tell you how well your immune system will protect you from COVID-19

It’s not a bad sign if you feel fine after your COVID-19 shot. Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Courtesy of Robert Finberg, University of Massachusetts Medical School

If someone gets a headache or feels a bit under the weather after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, it’s become common to hear them say something like “Oh, it just means my immune system is really working hard.” On the flip side...



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Digital Currencies

A Unifying Theory of Everything

 

A Unifying Theory of Everything

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

This week, New York Magazine let me go full stream of consciousness on … everything. Their editor pitched me the idea to articulate a unifying theory on “this whole crazy techno-fiscal moment.” Problem is, while I understand crypto better than 99 percent of people, I do not understand crypto.

On Wednesday, crypto pioneer Coinbase listed shares on the NASDAQ, and closed the day at an almost $100 billion valuation, making it nearly as valuable as Goldman Sachs. Coinbase’s big day made a bunch of wealthy people wealthier, but it also poked several bears — ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Chart School

Money Printing Asset Price Targets

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The FED giveth and the FED taketh away. Right now the FED is giving a lot into 2022 US Mid Terms. 

Unless the FED breaks the market, here are some BRRRRR asset price targets, not normal price targets but money printing adjusted price targets. 


BITCOIN 175,000 to 500,000 USD

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DOW to 40,000 to 50,000

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More DOW

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.