Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Investors Party Like Its 1999; Market Top or Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

After enduring a deep stock market correction in late 2018, investors quickly bought up stocks. And the bull market resumed.

It’s been a decade since the financial crisis lows, and two decades since the 1999 stock market blow-off bubble top. In today’s chart, we put our party hats on as we look at an interesting stock market ratio; The S&P 500 / NYSE Ratio

As you can see in the chart below, this ratio is testing the highs that it made in 1999.

This comes at a time when the market is still trying to confirm a broader breakout to new highs. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at all-time highs, the Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 are not.

Will this ratio top out here? Or will it break out to new highs? The outcome may determine how long the party lasts.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil Rally Stalling? Stock Market Bulls Hope Not

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The 4-month rally has been broad-based, with other risk-on assets like crude oil rallying in stride.

This isn’t a surprise, as crude oil will often perform in line when the economy is on track.

Currently, the correlation between stocks and crude oil remains up.

But if crude doesn’t get its act together, it may become a headwind for stocks. See the chart below for more color.

Last week, Crude Oil created a large bearish reversal pattern while testing its 61.8% Fibonacci level at (1).

In my humble opinion, stocks would receive a short-term negative message if crude oil turns weak here. Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Doc Copper Suggesting Slower Economic Growth Ahead?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is Doc Copper of late suggesting the economy is about to slow down? Possible!

Copper futures have remained in a trading range since last summer, with resistance around $2.95 and support near $2.60.

Over the past couple of months, Doc Copper has traded sideways near the top of this trading range at (1).

The past couple of weeks Doc Copper has declined in price, taking it below short-term rising support as lofty momentum is attempting to turn down.

A break of support this week opens the possibility that Copper could head back towards the bottom of the range. If it does fall to the bottom of the range (-10% decline) odds increase ole Doc Copper is suggesting a slight slowdown in the economy.

Keep a close eye on Copper futures to see if they starting heading towards the bottom of the range at (2).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





2000 Topping Pattern In Stocks Happening Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a very broad stock index of late creating a pattern similar to the 2000 highs? Possible!

This chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years. The index has spent the majority of the past 30-years inside of a bullish rising channel.

In early 2000 the index created a bearish reversal pattern at (1). Months later it tested the old highs at (2), where a double top ended up taking place and stocks fell hard.

Turning the page to this past year, the index tested the top of the rising channel again, where it looks to have created a monthly bearish reversal pattern at (3). The rally off the December lows as the index testing the highs of last year at (4).

If this broad index breaks above last years highs, the chance of a double top will be eliminated and sharing this chart was a waste of your time.

The bullish case for stocks would receive a negative message if a month from now stocks are much lower, which would increase the odds that a double top formed.

Keep a close eye on this broad index over the next month as we enter in the seasonal sell in May time frame.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Coffee About To Heat Up And Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Coffee has been anything but hot over the past 3-years, as it has declined nearly 50%. Is cold Coffee about to heat up? Possible in the short-term!

This chart looks at Coffee futures over the past 16-years. The 50% decline is coffee has it testing its 2005 lows and the bottom of a 3-year falling channel at (1).

While testing this support zone two weeks ago at (1), it created a bullish reversal pattern (bullish wick).

No doubt the trend in Coffee is down and this one-week bullish reversal pattern does NOT change the trend!

If Coffee can break above resistance at (2), look for it to heat up in the short-term.

Currently, hedgers have a very big bet in play that Coffee will rally. Keep a close eye on Coffee and Coffee ETF JO over the next couple of weeks, as an upside bullish breakout test is in play.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Miners Create Bullish Reversal While Testing Support

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Two months ago Gold Miners ETF GDX created its first bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick) while testing falling resistance. A couple of weeks later it created another bearish reversal pattern (Bearish wick) and then selling pressure took over and GDX fell 10% quickly.

The decline of late now has GDX testing rising support, where GDX created a bullish reversal pattern (Bullish wick) to close out the past week at (2).

Several bullish reversal patterns have taken place over the past 9-months along this rising support line.

What is the desired price action of miners bulls the next week or two? A rally off rising support at (2), taking it back to restest old highs at (1).

If upside action does not take place and 9-month support is broken at (2), look for GDX to start moving towards trading range support at the $17.34 level.

What GDX does the next week should send a very important message from the mining sector.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil Could Be Peaking Here, Impacting Stocks, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude Oil and the S&P 500 peaked last fall together and bottomed at the same time in December. Could they both be peaking together again this week? Joe Friday suggests keeping a close eye on the Crude Oil pattern this week.

Crude and the S&P both created topping patterns at each (1), then both fell over 15%.

Crude and the S&P both created bottoming patterns at each (2), then both rallied over 15%

Crude and the S&P are both testing resistance levels at each (3).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– Crude Oil could be creating a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick) while testing resistance this week. If Crude would turn lower from current levels, it could influence stocks to do the same.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Transportation Index Creating A Topping Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This quote comes to mind when I look at the chart above; bottoms are often events and Tops are a process. Could the Dow Jones Transportation be creating a “Topping Pattern” over the past 15-months? Possible!

In this monthly chart of the Transports index, we applied Fibonacci extension levels to the 2003 lows and the 2008 highs at each (1).

The rally off the 2009 lows saw the Transports index test the  261% extension level as resistance in January of last year, where a strong upward trend stopped on a dime. It has now spent the past 15-months attempting to break above this Fibonacci extension level, which comes into play as resistance.

While testing this resistance level, the Transports could be creating a “Head & Shoulders topping pattern!” 

The bullish case for stocks would receive quality good news if Transport can take out this resistance zone!  Keep a close eye on the Transport index the next few weeks as they are dealing with what looks to be a very important price level!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Technology Sector Is Sending Bullish Message As Stocks Hit All-Time Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market rally off the December 2018 lows has been very impressive.

In many ways, it’s also been persistent. Every time market bears think they have an opening to drive stocks lower, the major stock market indices surge higher.

Though the rally has been broad-based, it’s also had clear leadership: the technology sector and tech stocks.

In the chart below, we look at the Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), and the Semiconductors ETF (SMH).

Note that all three major technology indexes and sectors are at all-time highs (1). Each of the charts shows a gap and go breakout as well. This is bullish for the broader market.

Tech is clearly sending a positive message to the broad market with each of these tickers hitting all-time highs at the same time.

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Tech Indicator Sending Bullish Message To S&P 500

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

How long as Tech been stronger than the S&P 500? 16-years! QQQ has outperformed than the S&P since the NDX 100 hit lows back in 2003.

This chart looks at the QQQ/SPY ratio over the past 3-years. The ratio peaked 10-months ago and then declined into November of 2018. Since the lows of last fall, the ratio has been moving higher.

Last week the ratio broke above last years highs, which puts the ratio at all-time high levels.

This breakout reflects continued strength by Tech over the broad market, which historically sends a short-term positive message to the S&P 500. If this ratio continues to push higher, it increases the odds that the S&P will move above last years highs.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Visualizing The 150 Apps That Power The Gig Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Go back in time a decade, and you’d have a tough time convincing anyone that they would be “employed” through an app on their phone.

And yet, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, in a short period of time, the emergence of the smartphone has enabled the gig economy to flourish into a multi-trillion dollar global market. And by leveraging apps like Uber, Airbnb, and Etsy, it’s estimated that ...



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Phil's Favorites

What's going on with Blue Apron?

By Ilene 

The Blue Apron business model appears, perhaps, flawed. While the service is convenient, I think it would appeal mostly to very busy people who don't have time to shop for food -- but enjoy cooking -- and have enough money that the trade off between paying for food delivery vs. spending time shopping is worth it. Here's the unfortunate stock chart and some numbers from Yahoo:

The company has been losing money, and is projected to lose money again next year. Revenue is projected to decrease in 2019 from the 2018 level, but pick up again in 2020, though still below 2018's revenue. Maybe a larger company that could integrate APRN's services into its existing infrastructure should acquire APRN and save it from its apparent...



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Chart School

Palladium minor cycle bottom

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Once again RealVision TV posts another trade idea, long palladium. We shall review it with our RTT cycle tools and parallel channels.







Any trader will be concerned with the supply shock at $1800 which pushed down price quickly. Profit taking maybe, sure! The question, is there more supply out (or more profit taking) there ready to dump on the market, either now or after any minor advance. This why waiting for the 'C' wave of the A-B-C to form over some more time is a good idea, and once done, we want to see solid buying moving price up before acting, after all we do not want to be early or a lonely bull (Richard Wyckoff logic). 

The parallel channel highl...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Sending Bearish Message To Stocks, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Quality bull markets prefer to see Banks stronger than the broad markets or at least keeping up with it. Concerns often crop up when banks reflect relative weakness compared to the S&P.

This chart looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past few years, reflecting a falling channel of lower highs and lower lows has taken place inside of falling channel (1). This falling channel has now been in play for the past 15-months.

The index hit the bottom of the channel in December of 2018 and a counter-trend rally took place. The rally off the December lows saw the index hit the top...



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Insider Scoop

Analyst: US Sanctions 'May Not Kill Huawei'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Wednesday that limits how "foreign adversaries" conduct business with U.S. companies.

What Happened

The Department of Commerce said China's Huawei and 70 related companies will be included in the "Entity ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>