Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Bear market picks up momentum if this gives way!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

One of the broadest stock market indices in the states is starting off the year with a key test, that could send a very important message for months to come!

This chart takes a look at the New York Stock Exchange index (NYSE) over the past 20-years. Since the 2011 lows, the index has spent the majority of the past 8-year inside of rising channel (1).

The decline over the past 90-days has the index testing the bottom of the rising channel and 2014 highs at (2). This price point becomes a very important support test for this broad index.

As a reminder, support is support until broken! If this dual support price point does not hold, it would suggest that the bears will be busy to start off 2019!

Keep a close eye on this price point friends, what this broad index does (2), could send a very important message to start off the year.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold breaking out against King Dollar!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since 2011, Gold has been much weaker than King Dollar. Over the past 3-Years, it is attempting to change the long-term trend.

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past few years. The ratio hit a low in December of 2015 and has been creating a series of higher lows and higher highs inside of rising channel (1). The ratio hit the top of this new channel at the beginning of 2018 and declined through the summer.

Since the summer lows, the ratio has traded sideways inside of the blue box. Strength in Gold of late has it breaking above the top of this trading range at (2).

Gold, Silver, and miners have done well this month, while stocks around the world have been soft. The ratio is now testing the 2017 lows, which comes into play as resistance.

What the ratio does at this resistance test will send an important message to the metals sector for the next few months.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Buy The Dip or Sell The Rally Indicator, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Any large decline in stocks often brings up the question, should one start buying the dips or selling rallies.

The decline of late and the bounce higher the past few days most likely have millions of investors around the world pondering this very question.

This chart overlays the Dow Jones Home Construction index and the S&P 500 over the past 15-years. In 2006, the Home Construction index experienced a negative divergence for months with the S&P 500. Once Home construction broke multi-year support at (1), both fell very hard. The strategy that paid off after the support break; sell the rallies.

The Home Construction index this year has been experiencing a negative divergence again with the S&P 500. The large decline now has the Home Construction index testing multi-year support at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- What the DJ Home Construction index does at this support test, should go a long way to answering if one should buy the dip or sell the rally going forward.

Keep a close eye on this index friends, it could send a very important message of what is the best strategy for stocks in the New Year!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Look at the Big Picture to put recent volatility in perspective!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Whether the Dow is down nearly 20% from the highs of a few months ago or it experiences a 1,000 point rally, what should one do to give proper perspective to these big price moves we’ve experienced of late?

In my humble opinion, the best thing to do is look at the big picture, by taking a glance at a long-term monthly chart.

This chart looks at the Dow over the past 38-years on a monthly basis, reflecting that is has spent the majority of the past 30-years inside of rising channel (1). From this viewpoint, the long-term trend remains higher.

The Dow has spent the majority of the past 8-years, inside of rising channel (2), where the declines of the past couple of months have the Dow testing 8-year rising support at (3). This rising channel reflects that the upward trend remains in play as support is support until broken!

With the Dow now below its 10-month moving average and monthly momentum at levels last seen in 2000 & 2007, the Big Picture would suggest an extremely important rising channel support test is in play this month at (3)!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Santa Claus Rally Taking Place Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

While it’s easy to find articles that suggest a Santa Claus rally isn’t taking place this year, the Power of the Patterns would disagree!

This chart looks at the performance from several assets in the metals sector the past 30-days.

Even though all of these metals assets are lower in 2018, each of these is experiencing a nice rally this month!

So maybe ole Santa didn’t disappoint everyone this year.  Full Disclosure, Metals Members hold long positions in Gold and a large mining company.

If you would like to receive Power of the Pattern analysis on Gold, Silver, Copper, and the miners, we would be honored if you were a Metals Member.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Bugs breaking above multi-year resistance; Good News In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The Gold Bugs Index could be sending some good news to this out of favor sector of late!

The Gold bugs index has struggled for the past 7-years compared to the S&P 500, as it has created a series of lower highs. This decline reflects that Gold miners have been much weaker than the S&P 500. The weakness in the ratio has been suggesting to be long the S&P and short the Gold bugs index.

Of late the ratio might have created a double bottom, bouncing off the 2016 lows. The strength in the ratio of late has it breaking above falling resistance at (1).

This breakout is good news for this hard hit, out of favor ratio!

If Gold, Silver, Copper, and Mining stock analysis is of interest to you, check out our Metals Report. Odds are high you would benefit from being a member and we would be honored by your membership.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Nasdaq breaks 9-year support, new bear trend starting?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Tech is doing something this month that it hasn’t done in 9-years, which could be sending an important message to the broad markets.

This chart from Investors.com and Marketsmith looks at the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) on a monthly basis since inception. We applied Fibonacci levels to the 2000 highs and 2003 lows, which highlights that QQQ hit the 161% extension level at (1) in September. While hitting the 161% level, it was also kissing the underside of resistance and it created a bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness since hitting the 161% level, now has QQQ breaking 9-year rising support at (2). This break of support sends a negative message to the broad market, from this sector that has been an upside leader since the 2003 lows!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Small Caps Hitting 2009 Oversold levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The Russell 2000 it’s 161% Fibonacci extension level in August and (1), where it quickly reversed and declined more than 20%!

The swift decline now has small caps testing rising support and its 2015 highs at (2). While it is testing dual support, weekly momentum is now reaching oversold levels. The last time momentum was this low for the Russell was at the 2009 lows.

Until broken this is a strong support test for Small Caps!

This is a critical test of support for the long-term trend in the Russell.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Party like its 2000 & 2007? Correction or Bear market in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market correction has morphed into a bear market for the Russell 2000(INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) and Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC).

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) and Dow Jones Industrials are nearing bear market territory, down 15 to 16 percent. Fear is in the air and investors are beginning to wonder what happened. If you follow my charts, you’ve seen several bearish reversal patterns and trend lines breaking down.

Today we look at two more:  The S&P 500 and 5-Year Treasury Note Yield.

In the top pane of today’s chart, we track the 5-year yield over the past 20+ years. We can see that yields have been in a steady downtrend (1). And the last two times that yields have tested that trend line, it’s lead to a big decline in yields (see years 2000 and 2007). Also similar to 2000 and 2007 is that yields are breaking down below multi-year uptrends.

Same goes for stocks. As yields peak, investors worry about interest rates and price in an economic decline and fall in earnings. This shows up in the price action well before the actual “news”. In the bottom pane, we have the S&P 500. Note the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Stocks and bonds following suit. And once again, the S&P 500 is breaking a multi-year uptrend line.

Careful here!

S&P 500 “Monthly” Chart – 2000 & 2007 All Over Again?

This post was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Interest rates fall 14%, despite Fed action! Bad news for stocks? Was in 2000 & 2007!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Interest rates set by the world are actually falling, in the face of Fed raising them!

This chart looks at interest rate yields over the past 6-weeks, which reflects they are actually declining quite quickly.

The yield on the 2-year note has declined 10% and yields on the 2 & 5-year notes have declined over 14%. While this decline in rates has taken place, the S&P 500 has declined 10%.

Joe Friday shared that in 2000 & 2007, falling rates were bad for stocks. See Post here

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

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Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Zero Hedge

Federal Workers Taking Odd Jobs To Make Ends Meet During Shutdown

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Federal employees affected by the partial government shutdown are turning to various side jobs to make ends meet, according to the Associated Press

Some, such as immigration lawyer Cheryl Inzunza Blum of Tucson has been renting out a room on Airbnb for extra cash - capitalizing on the busy winter travel season in Arizona after she stopped receiving paychecks for her government contract work at a local immigration lawyer. She says she's working for free since she has clients who depend on her - some of whom are detained or have court hearings. 

Cheryl Inzunza Blum ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The "Average Stock" is Facing a Big Test Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The Value Line Geometric Index tends to give investors a good idea of the health of the overall market. It is an equal-weighted index with a broad swath of stocks that gives investors an idea of how the “average stock” is performing.

The Value Line Geometric formed highs in the same area in 1998, 2007, and 2015 (see blue line). In the last two years, the index broke out above that line and held above it until the recent correction.

It is now testing the underside of that price area (now resistance). Bulls will get good news with a breakout ABOVE thi...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>