Semiconductors (SMH): Important “Kiss” of Resistance Underway
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 7th, 2019 6:53 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
Semiconductor stocks are representative of the growth engine in the market. They are cyclical and technology driven.
So when the Semiconductors Sector (SMH) slows down, investors should take note.
This is exactly what occurred last year. The Semiconductors Sector was slowed at the price area of the year 2000 highs (1). And it was a warning sign for the late 2018 stock market correction.
So where are we now? The Semiconductors (SMH) are hot again. And the current rally looks ready to test that familiar resistance line.
Will this “kiss” of the underside of the 2000 highs result in a breakout… or more selling? How Semiconductors handle this key resistance test will send a very important message to the broad markets. Keep a close eye on them the next 6-weeks friends!!!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE
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Stock Market Bulls Hope Wilshire 5000 Isn’t Topping Here!
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 6th, 2019 7:55 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The Wilshire 5000 Index has spent the past 30 years trading within a bullish price channel up-trend – see (1) in today’s chart above. The price action of late has NOT broken the long-term bull trend.
Though the latest move off the 2009 lows has been bullish, and quite strong, it has taken the broad stock market index to the top of this bullish channel.
That alone is a reason for concern as this appears to be slowing the bull market down. But there’s more…
While hitting the top of the channel, the Wilshire 5000 has taken the shape of a “still forming” head and shoulders topping pattern.
All eyes on that potential right shoulder!
Long-term bulls do not want to see this broad stock market index forming a Head & Shoulders topping pattern right here as there is plenty of room to the downside. Stay tuned!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE
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Utilities Creating Another Important Topping Pattern?
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 5th, 2019 7:50 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
In 2000 the Dow Jones Utility index spent around 7-months creating a topping process. The S&P 500 had declined for nearly 12-months before the waterfall decline in Utilities got started.
In 2007, Utilities spent nearly 12-months creating a topping process. The S&P 500 had declined for nearly 9-months before the waterfall decline in Utilities got started.
The Dow Jones Utilities weekly closing all-time high took place in December of 2017. The index is currently around 1% below the 2017 highs.
Is it creating another important top or about to break out and send a positive message to the broad markets?
Below looks at the Dumb Money Confidence Level from Sentimentrader.com
Dumb Money confidence is currently testing last years highs as Utilities are within 1% of the all-time highs.
In my humble opinion, what Utilities do the next few weeks as they test old highs, should send a very important message to the broad market! Keep a close eye Utilities the next 6-weeks friends!!!
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GOLD Records Large Bearish Reversal at Triple Resistance
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 4th, 2019 10:40 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
Precious metals have been a hot topic for investors and the financial markets. Gold, in particular, has caught the eye of market participants.
After a 6 month rally into February, Gold futures reversed hard to the downside. This reversal came as gold prices tested triple resistance (1) at the same time that momentum was overheating (2).
The move lower created an ugly bearish reversal candlestick on the “weekly” chart. That reversal also saw Gold break its steep up-trend support line.
Rough start to the new month for Gold bulls.
Careful here. Volatility is ticking higher. No need to be a hero – gold bulls will now look for a higher low to form in weeks ahead.
This chart was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE
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European Financials Bullish Breakout In The Cards?
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 4th, 2019 8:49 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
Financials in Europe have struggled big time in the past year! Are they about to send a bullish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Let’s investigate.
European Financial ETF (EUFN) and Deutsche Bank (DB) both experienced large percentage declines in 2018. The large declines last year created new falling channels, highlighted by each (1).
The rallies over the past 8-weeks have each testing the top of these falling channels at each (2).
If EUFN and DB would breakout at (2), they would send a positive message to stocks in Europe and the States. The results of what each does at (2), should send important short-term to intermediate messages about how much further the 8-week rally could go or is it about to run out of steam!
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Euro slips here, Gold & Silver could turn much weaker!
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 2nd, 2019 11:35 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The Euro is facing an important price test that could highly influence the next big move in the metals markets.
From a very long-term perspective, the Euro remains inside falling channel (1), where it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows for nearly 20-years. Over the past 18-months the Euro could be creating a “Head & Shoulders” topping pattern at (2). Humbly, I can NOT say with total confidence that this is a topping pattern.
I am confident that if support breaks at (3), selling pressure in the Euro should ramp up and drive it a good deal lower. If the Euro does break support at (3), the next key support zone for the Euro comes into play around 1.04, which is nearly 9% below current prices.
If this support lower level would come into play, odds are decent that metals will head lower as well.
The bottom line for the Euro at this time, it is facing a very important support test at (3)!
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Emerging Markets Attempting Bullish Breakout, Says Joe Friday
by kimblechartingsolutions - March 1st, 2019 8:16 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
Are Emerging markets about to send a bullish message to stocks in the states? Possible!
This chart looks at Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) on a weekly basis over the past 9-years. Since the lows in 2016, EEM looks to be creating 4-year rising channel (1). The decline into the lows in December saw EEM test the bottom of its rising channel with momentum reaching oversold levels. Very possible it created a “weekly double bottom” while testing triple support 8-weeks ago!
The 8-week rally in EEM has it attempting to break above its 1-year falling channel and its 200-MA line at (2), as momentum is attempting to turn up.
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- If a breakout above falling resistance and its 200-MA line takes place at (2), its sends a positive message to Emerging markets and stocks in the states.
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Stocks Hope Treasury Yields Find Support Here!
by kimblechartingsolutions - February 28th, 2019 7:43 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
When the financial media talks about US Treasuries, it is usually focused on the yield curve. Or sometimes they will highlight the 10-year treasury yield and its relation to mortgage rates.
But more recently, the news has been focused on the prospects of a yield curve inversion and how that correlates to economic slowdowns/recessions. Today, we are going to simply look at the 10-Year and 30-Year US Treasury Yield charts.
In my business, a picture (chart) is worth a 1000 words.
Over the past 3 decades, Treasury yields have been in a downtrend, with major stock tops (and treasury yield tops) coming in 2000 and 2007.
Will 2018-2019 be the same? From a pattern standpoint, stock market bulls hope the reversal lower in Treasury yields finds support soon… preferably at point (1)! Stay tuned!
This post was originally was written for See It Markets.com. To see original article CLICK HERE
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Why The S&P Needs Bank Strength Right Now!
by kimblechartingsolutions - February 27th, 2019 9:44 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The ole saying “So Goes The Banks, So Goes Stocks” could be very accurate right now! This dual chart looks at the S&P 500 and the S&P/Bank Ratio on a weekly basis over the past 13-years.
In 2011 and 2016 the S&P 500 and the ratio both faced resistance at the same time at each (1). Once a breakout by both took place at each (1), both experienced strong rallies for months to come.
Currently, the ratio is facing falling resistance at (2) and the S&P is facing falling channel resistance at (3). Does the S&P need the ratio to breakout at (2) so it can break out at (3)? Good odds!
Keep an eye on what banks do the next few weeks as they could send a very important message to the broad market!!!
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Crude Oil Suggesting Stocks Are About To Peak?
by kimblechartingsolutions - February 26th, 2019 7:01 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
The correlation between Crude Oil and the S&P 500 has been rather high over the past 9-months.
Both peaked at the same time in early October, as Crude declined over 40% and the S&P fell nearly 18%.
Both bottomed together near Christmas and both experienced strong counter-trend rallies. Crude has rallied 29% and the S&P is up over 18% since the December lows.
The rally in the S&P has it testing old highs and its 78% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2018 highs and lows, while Crude is testings its November highs.
Weakness to start of the week has Crude attempting to break below very short-term support. Keep a close eye on Crude the next couple of weeks, as it could be predicting the next major move for both at this key price level.
What would be sweet news for Crude Oil and S&P 500 bulls? Both break above these resistance levels at the same time!
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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