Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Interest Rates And Banks At Critical Inflection Points, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In the past 5-weeks, 10-Year Yields have declined 26%, 5-year yields are down 24% and 2-year yields are down 17%. Is there more of a decline in yields to come?

How would stocks react if yields rally off support? Could bank start reflecting relative strength if yields rally here?

This chart reflects that the swift declines of late have 2, 5 & 10-year yields testing 7-year support at each (1).

As yields are testing long-term support the Bank Index (BKX) is doing the same thing (lower right chart).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; Stocks in the states and around the world are hopeful that yields and banks rally off these long-term support levels. 

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Gold Indicator Facing Long-Term Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold/Metals bulls want to pay attention to how this indicator handles a current breakout test!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio on a weekly basis over the past decade.

The ratio created a falling channel (A) from 2011 to 2013. Once support broke Gold continued to be much weaker than the US Dollar for a few years.

The ratio started creating a rising channel (B) in 2016/2017, as higher lows started forming. These higher lows reflected that Gold was outperforming the US Dollar.

The rally over the past couple of years has the ratio testing the top of rising channel (B) and the underside of falling channel (A) at (1).

It appears that a very important long-term breakout test is in play currently, with momentum at the highest level in 8-years.

How the ratio handles this breakout test will send Gold and Silver a very important long-term message.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Metals Bulls Receiving Long-Awaited Positive Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are metals bulls about to receive a long-awaited positive message? It won’t take long to find out based upon this chart!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the early 1980s. Metals bulls historically want to see this ratio moving higher, to send Gold & Silver a positive message.

The ratio has been in a funk since it peaked in 2011. The eight-year decline has driven the ratio down to the lowest level in 28-years.

A bullish reversal pattern took place two months ago while testing this 28-year support level at (1). The rally of late has it testing 3-year falling resistance at (2).

If the ratio breaks out at (2), a long-awaited short-term bullish message will be sent to Silver and Gold bulls!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Bearish Divergences Similar To 2000 & 2007 In Play Again!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Does history at important junctures ever repeat itself exactly? Nope

Do look-alike patterns take place at important price points? Yup

This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

In 2000 and 2007 bearish momentum divergences took place months ahead of the actual peak in stocks.

Currently, momentum has created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 for the past 20-months, as the seems to have stopped on a dime at its 261% Fibonacci extension level of the 2007 highs/2009 lows.

Joe Friday Just The Fact Ma’am; A negative sign for the S&P 500 with the divergence in play, would take place if support breaks at (1).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Is the US Dollar About To Break Out Higher?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The US Dollar Index is flexing its muscle of late.

Trade wars and fear of a global slowdown have capital fleeing to King Dollar.

King dollar breakout test in play?

Looking at today’s chart, you can see that the Dollar has been consolidating in a range for the past year – see shaded area on chart (1).

Now King Dollar is attempting to break out over the topside of that range at (2). That area represents dual resistance, as it also represents the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

What it does here could highly impact the financial markets, including the precious metals. Stay tuned!

The article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is important to you, our weekly Metals Report will help you find those opportunities.

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Steel About To Breakdown And Send Bearish Economic Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Steel Industry suggesting that a recession is nearing? In my humble opinion, the jury is still out on this one.

This chart from Marketsmith.com takes a look at the patterns of Steel ETF (SLX).

SLX has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of trading range (1). The persistent decline over the past year has it testing the bottom of this trading range at (2).

The weakness over the past year has it below long-term moving averages as its relative strength rating continues to decline.

If SLX breaks below trading range support at (2), it could join the ranks of the yield curve inversion, suggesting slower economic times are ahead.

Stock and economic bulls want/need for SLX to rally off support at (2).

#IBDinfluencer #IBDpartner 

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Transports 10-Year Bullish Trend Being Tested! Rally Time or Breakdown?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the DJ Transportation Index presenting a rare buying opportunity? The broad market most likely hopes so!

Transports have spent the majority of the past decade creating a series of higher lows. This pattern has created rising channel (1), which started back in 2009.

Transports have created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 over the past 20-months, as they have created lower highs, while the S&P has done the exact opposite.

The softness in Transports has the testing its May lows and the 10-year rising channel to start out the week at (2). While testing this support last week the index created a bullish reversal pattern.

An extremely important support test is in play this week at (2). If Transports would happen to rally off support and break above falling resistance at (3), odds increase that the S&P 500 succeeds in breaking out to new all-time highs.

Keep a close eye on Transports the next couple of weeks as they to send the broad market a very important message!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P About To Decline 14%, Catching Up With The Crude Oil Declines?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

This chart looks at the performance of the S&P 500, Crude Oil and the Yield on the 10-Year note over the past 4-months.

Crude Oil has declined around 14% more than the S&P during this time frame. Yields have declined, even more, around 36%. The is a huge spread between these assets over this short of a time period.

A few important questions; Will the S&P 500 fall another 14% to catch up with the Crude Oil decline? Will the S&P fall another 36% to catch up with the decline in yields? Has Crude and Yields dropped too far?

Odds are very high that these “Fish Mouth” spreads will narrow, as spreads of this size historically narrow over time.

Is it possible that the spreads narrow by a decline in stocks and a rally by the other two? Anything is possible these days!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Commodities Breaking Down, Suggesting Deflation More Likely

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The big news of the day seems to be the inversion of the yield curve. An inversion oftentimes suggests that the economy will be slowing in the future and recession odds increase.

Another important economic message looks to be coming from the Thomson Reuter Equal Weighted Commodity Index!

This chart looks at this important Commodities index over the past 20-years. Since the highs in 2011, commodities have remained inside of falling channel (1).

The index has traded mostly sideways over the past 3-years inside of the blue shaded rectangle.

This month, commodities are attempting to break below the 3-year trading range at (2).

A decline in Commodities, TIP/TLT and Copper Gold ratios and the inversion of the yield curve, increase the odds that Dis-inflation/Deflation is about to present challenges in the global market place.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Zero Hedge

What's Hot In Women's Fashion?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Via Global Macro Monitor,

Capitalism at its best or worst?

We have a few questions:

1)  Does the Tariff Man get a royalty for the sale of each dress sold, and will that violate the Emolumen...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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