We didn’t get the bounce off of lower levels before going up; we just continued to push higher this past week. The following are comments from last weeks’ blog published on 3/21/2009.
Comments from last week on the DOW: “Look for a retest and a bounce to retest resistance at 7449-7551. If the index breaks through that area, the next stop is 7800.”
So what happened? We ended the week on the DOW at 7776!
Comments from last week on the SPX. “Look for a successful retest of 741 and a bounce higher to re-challenge the resistance at 804”. I also indicated in my chart analysis on the SPX from last week that there was resistance was at 819.
How did the week really play out? The SPX ended the week at 816!
The week began with a massive move up in the markets. The DOW closed up 497 points. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner went from goat to hero as he announced details regarding the Public-Private investment program designed to remove up to $1 trillion in toxic assets from the balance sheets of banks. Existing Home Sales surprised by rising 5.1% in February.
Tuesday experienced profit taking as one would expect after the large move on Monday. Geithner and Bernanke testified on The Hill with AIG taking most of the heat on the bonus mess. The DOW closed down 116 points.
Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders surprised on the upside rising 3.4% in February and New Home Sales increased 4.7% in February to spark a move higher. The DOW finished the day 90 points to the good.
The market received mixed news on Thursday as 4thquarter GDP was revised to a more favorable number. However, the jobless claims made record highs. Earnings came in strong for some retail stocks and the Treasury auction on 7 year notes went well as the DOW sorted through all of this and decided to trade up 175 points.
The week ended with the DOW retracing 148 points on declining Consumer Spending and Income Reports as several companies announced job cuts.
Week over week, the DOW gained 498, the SPX was up 48 and the COMPQ was better by 88.
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-The DOW needs to break the channel trendline to begin to reverse the trend. The index is likely to consolidate very briefly before continuing higher to test 8315 and 8405. If the DOW breaks the lower trendline, it will retest support at 7449. If that level is breached, then look for the index to challenge the swing low at 7114. My feel is that we are still going higher after a brief respite at current levels.
-Support at 804 is strong. Should the SPX break this level, then look for the index to test 780 and then 741 which is crucial support. I feel that 804 will hold and the SPX will move higher after a brief consolidation and challenge 875. If 875 is breached then look for 944 as the next target.
-The trend is still valid. The key is whether or not the index stays within its’ trading channel. The gap at 1496 should be stout support. If that level is broken, then we will look at 1434 which has been strong support. I feel we will briefly rest at current levels and then go higher to challenge 1598 and then 1666.