Weakening Wednesday – Global Markets Retreat as Tensions Ratchet Higher

by - May 16th, 2018 8:23 am

I told you I like CASH!!!

In fact, I told you on Friday morning in our Report titled:  "TGIF – Silly, Low-Volume, Pumped-Up Week Finally Ends", saying:

"Volume has been anemic this week too with, 55M SPY shares trading on Monday, 67M shares on Tuesday, 59M shares on Weds and 68M shares yesterday vs an average volume of 101M shares so about 35% below "normal" volume, which is already close to half of last year's volume.  Why is volume drying up like this?  Because stocks are more expensive so the same money buys less and less stock and, because the economy isn't really growing – there is no more money to pay for the stocks – just a lot of idiots SPECULATING that there will be money to pay these ridiculous prices one day, so it's not important to actually earn any money because the greater fool theory will fix everything. 

"The greatest fools, of course, are the last people to buy at the top – we call them bag-holders and I have been saying all week that this test of our Strong Bounce Lines is a good time to dump your stocks on the bagholders that are coming in and get back to CASH!!!.  Again, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!"  

So far this week, the markets are down and the Dollar is up 1.5% and still cimbing this morning at 93.50, that's putting pressure on the indexes and commodities which makes people panic out of those and they then demand more CASH!!!, which drives up the price of Dollars (as they get scarce) and the cycle continues.  People are also trying to trade in their dying TBills for cash – so even more demand for cash.  Thank goodness housing is still dead or the Dollar would be back over 100!  

Image result for cash animated gifWe're thrilled to have a nice little pullback and we even bought a couple of stocks yesterday but, on the whole, we're even more thrilled to be mainly in CASH!!! during this period of market uncertainty.  You…
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  • You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

    Corleone

  • Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

    Ricpar

  • Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

    Newthugger

  • Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!

    Jomptien

  • Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.

    Hoss

  • Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.

    Craigsa620

  • Phil / TNA – On Monday you put out the TNA BCS 41/47. As I mentioned I work during market hours so on Tuesday morning on my way out the door (premarket) I put in an advanced TOS '1st trigger sequence' order to fill the BCS. I can control the entry using this method vs. the vertical entry that TOS allows for the BCS. I filled the June 41 long call but never filled the 47 short call. I let that ride into today. OMG ..TNA popped 7.5%!… the $3.60 entry is almost a double! Tomorrow will be a OCO bracket to get out of TNA before Ben speaks. I should be able to preserve 85% – 100% on the trade. For the income portfolio plays in my IRA's, doing very well… I do like collecting premium! Well done and thanks!

    JFawcett

  • Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

    JWick1981

  • Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

    Seeking Truth

  • Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

    DoubleD

  • Phil you are great, and not only is your market info spot on but you have the courage to call it like it is and write about it in a great tone.

    Flanger

  • Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!

    Traderd

  • Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably. Happy New Years to you all!

    JBur

  • I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

    Captain Mogul

  • Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!

    Louis631

  • Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

    Steve

  • The virtuous trade / Phil throws out so many ideas, that understandably he rejects all calls for a running total of how all ""quoted"" ideas are performing – it would be unworkable. But without such a list, I think it behooves us to call out the trades that have made a difference. January 13 expiration is going to be a big month for me as a significant number of sold put positions will expire worthless. One example of the power of patience and leaving well alone: VLO – sold Jan 13, 17.5 puts for $3.45 – and this trade was placed in August 2011. VLO is currently a tad over $35! And as time went by, and I got more experienced – with the help of Phil and the contributions from board members, I started selling short term puts and calls around this position. Sometimes having to roll, sometimes doubling down but always knowing what I was getting into, and feeling very calm and focussed that whatever happened I could handle it. And if I couldn't then there was always Phil to lend a helping hand. All in all, my profits since August 2011 would qualify as a tidy addition to any earnings from the day job. Thank you Sir.

    Winston

  • Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

    Redfern1

  • Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

    OnWisconsin

  • Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours. Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!

    Eyezz

  • I'd like to wish Phil and everyone else that contributes to this board a very Merry Christmas and happy New Year. The wealth of knowledge on here is incredible, and it has greatly contributed to my understanding of markets, politics, and the world in general. This year was when Phil's teachings all seemed to click in place, and my portfolio's performance shot up, and for that I am very grateful. Thank you!

    Palotay

  • On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

    Iflantheman

  • Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!

    Kustomz

  • PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.

    Winston

  • I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

    Pharmboy

  • Phil/ Thanks to your obsessive bearish anxiety over the last few weeks, I made money on the long side this month, phased gradually to bearish, came in net short today and managed to make money both long and short all week, ending today [and each day this week] in the green. I don't know how you do it, but thank you.

    Zeroxzero

  • Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

    Zeroxzero

  • Phil, I've got to give you props on the ICE spread play. Tremendous call! I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today. Nice 57% return ($2,300) over a mere 3 trading days! This is why I dig your site!

    Samlawyer

  • Phil – I think I finally figured out your "crystal ball" time frame. You're about 5-14 days AHEAD of what the market is going to do. It's taken me a long time to realize this, but boy it's been profitable. I go in when you recommend something at about 25% allocation, and then add to it each day it "goes the wrong way" Then BOOM, one day it's all good…. The long put list was literally exact in it's timing.

    Burrben

  • Hey Phil – I ignored your call to sell those AAPL $580s for $1 so not sure whether to thank you or not (just kidding) for my $5 winner. Actually I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, that was an uncanny call.

    TheChaser

Jim Chanos on Masters In Business

by - May 15th, 2018 3:45 pm

 

Jim Chanos on Masters In Business

Courtesy of 

Jim Chanos is the man, that I can tell you. Barry’s new interview with the legendary money manager and short-seller has too many highlights for me to list individually.

Here’s Barry:

This week, we speak with famed short seller Jim Chanos, founder and president of Kynikos Associates LP, the world’s largest exclusive short-selling investment firm.

Chanos has identified — and sold short — many of the past 3 decades best-known corporate disasters. His celebrated short-sale of Enron shares was dubbed by Barron’s as “the market call of the decade, if not the past 50 years.” He also made bets against Baldwin-United, Commodore International, Coleco, Integrated Resources, Boston Chicken, Sunbeam, Conseco, Tyco International, and most recently, Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

He explains why he believes Elon Musk’s first love is SpaceX, and that “Tesla is a zero.”

Make sure you find some time for this asap.

Masters In Business: James Chanos (Bloomberg)

Picture from CNBC. 

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Technical Tuesday – Trouble at 2,728, Again!

by - May 15th, 2018 8:23 am

The market is so predictable.  

There's a ton of money to be made from predictable, so we're certainly not complaining.  After a meaningless spike higher, the S&P calmed right down and finished right at our 2,782 line (2,730, actually) and this morning, as expected, the index is pulling back as the Dollar rises back to the top of it's range.  Eventually, one of these will break out and the other will fall – but which one will prevail?

We had a good run on /ES, all the way from 2,600 (barely touched two weeks ago) back to 2,728 and a 28-point run means we're looking for a 5.6-point retrace back to 2,723 (weak) and 2,717 (strong) and, even as I write this (7:30), the Futures bounced off 2,723, failed 2,728 again and are now testing 2,723 again but I think they'll fail as the Dollar is at 92.87 and rising and that's up half a point so we'll look for 2,717 and see how that's doing.  The Futures on the S&P (/ES) pay $50 per point so it's a quick $300 if that bet plays out and, of course, simply stop out over 2,723 to limit the risk.

The Dow is also having fun around it's own 20% line but, in this case, it's been unable to get over the line (25,200).  26,250 is the 25% line and that's 1,050 away but we'll call it 1,000 so we can call the bounce lines 200 points and that makes our up and down range from 25,200: 24,800, 25,000, 25,400 and 25,600 so we can chart that like this:

The Dow strayed down to the 200 dma at 23,750 so the run to 24,950 yesterday was 1,200 points and we'll call those rejection lines 250 points to 24,700 (weak) and 24,450 (strong) but that would take us back below the 20% line and that would be a big negative so very bad if 24,700 does not hold.  

Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) have been boosting the Dow as oil and gasoline test new highs but what's great for them is not so good for the industrials that use oil and gas to produce goods but, fortunately, there are not too many…
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They couldn’t have known

by - May 15th, 2018 2:27 am

 

They couldn’t have known

Courtesy of 

The thing very few people tell you about “overvalued” markets is that, occasionally, the fundamentals arrive to justify them. Later, of course, which is how risk takers are compensated for owning stocks selling at a higher than normal multiple. If there were no chance of this happening, then stocks would never reach these higher valuations to begin with, because no one would pay up for them.

But it can happen. It does happen. At the micro level (individual stocks and sectors), there are hundreds of recent examples one could rattle off.  Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia – you could go back a decade and pretty much never find a moment where these stocks sold at what investors would traditionally call a “reasonable” valuation. Their stock prices soared and then soared again, thousands of percentage points, as the fundamental stories grew up to justify the valuations investors had already been paying.

Not every bet like this works out, but sometimes it does.

This also applies to entire markets. The critics of stock market valuations can’t know what the future holds in terms of fundamentals. They can guess, and guess negatively if they’d like, but they can’t know. It is unknowable. But sometimes the economic backdrop and corporate opportunity set becomes positive enough to justify expensive markets ex-post.

Michael Batnick and I were talking about this recently with regards to the S&P 500, which had made a new record high in the spring of 2013. It was easy to look at the rising valuation multiple and conclude that stocks were expensive relative to history on key metrics like trailing earnings. Mike pointed out that you were buying stocks at that moment, five years ago, at a cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio that was higher than 87% of all readings for this measure throughout history. The stock market had only been that expensive during 13% of all months.

And then the S&P 500 went up 90%.

No one could have known that the fundamentals would arrive to back up the elevated valuations for stocks eventually. There was a possibility that they would, and a possibility they wouldn’t. There’s formula for calculating…
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Just Another Manic Monday

by - May 14th, 2018 8:30 am

Palestinian protesters run for cover from tear gas during clashes with Israeli forces near the border between the Gaza strip and Israel.28 protesters were killed in Israel and 1,000 wounded this morning (so far).

Jared and Ivanka were on-hand for the opening of the new US Embassy in Jerusalem and, to no rational person's surprise, things did not go well and now tensions are escalating and Hamas claims they will have 100,000 people ready to storm the fence between those two countries – this is, of course, the kind of tension Trump wants to bring to this country along our Mexican border.

In more anti-American news, Iraqis voted for populist cleric Maqtada al-Sadr, who openly fought against US forces and has allied himself with the Communist Party but he ran on the Trumpian platform of "draining the swamp", which plays just as well with ignorant Iraquis as it does with ignorant Americans.  This election puts al-Sadr on track to possibly become the next Prime Minister, which would be a tremendous blow that undoes all the progress the US has made in Iraq since the Bush years – yet another Obama policy Trump is completely reversing!

This has sent the price of oil (/CL) and gasoline (/RB) spiking higher this morning but not before we got a nice dip in /RB back to $2.17, an $840 per contract gain from our short at $2.19 on Friday.  

Speaking of reversing:  Trump announced this morning that he will be lifting the ban on China's ZTE Corp, which had been accused of "egregious behavior" in evading sanctions the US has placed on other countries as well as having phones that were a Trojan Horse for Chinese spyware.  Trump said in a Sunday morning tweet that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are working together to give ZTE “a way to get back into business, fast.’’  The U.S. blockade has choked off the revenue of the No. 2 Chinese telecom company, which regards the next two weeks as crucial as it faces potential collapse. 

Trump’s comments about the company and concern about Chinese jobs come as the U.S. and China are locked in high-stakes negotiations over trade and intellectual property.  Both countries are threatening to slap tariffs…
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Three Things I Think I Think – Marx, Value Stocks & Bitcoin

by - May 13th, 2018 2:45 am

 

Three Things I Think I Think – Marx, Value Stocks & Bitcoin

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism

Here are some things I think I am thinking about:

1) Time to buy value stocks? Value stocks have done very badly for a long time when compared to growth stocks. So we’re starting to hear more and more contrarians argue that value stocks are much more attractive.

I always find this idea interesting. You see, what financial salesman did was create all of these brands within the stock market. Things like “growth” stock or “value” stock or whatever. Then they supported that brand with some evidence. Then they told you it would beat the market, slopped it into a strategy and then slapped a high fee on it and people bought it. Sometimes it works great, but mostly it doesn’t work so great.

The problem is, these sorts of strategies don’t always work out and can often fail for very long times before working out. And the reason for this is that no one really knows what a “value” or “growth” stock is before they buy it. Yeah, we have some vague definition like certain price ratios or whatever, but there isn’t a CEO in the world who would brand their firm the way Wall Street product salesman do. In other words, Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t think Facebook is a bad value or a growth stock. I’m certain that he thinks Facebook is a growth AND value stock. That’s how entrepreneurs think. Their firm is always a great value because they are working their butts off to make it more valuable. Sometimes the market reflects that a high growth stock is going to grow very fast. Sometimes the market reflects that a “value” stock is not going to grow fast. And sometimes the market gets this fantastically wrong. The point is, we never really know what these ratios are telling us about the future performance of the particular companies because predicting the future performance of individual firms is really damn hard.

As I often say, asset picking is the new stock picking. And this is how we’re pretending to be able to “beat the market” now – by pretending to know which stocks will reflect these big broad asset brands that we now call them. So I

…
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Zero Hedge

Thousands In Sweden Have Implanted Microchips Under Their Skin

May 20th, 2018 8:45 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

More than 3,000 people in Sweden have implanted tiny microchips beneath their skin to replace their credit card information, identification, keys, train tickets, among other everyday items, Agence France-Press announced Sunday.

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Truth is Stranger than Fiction

May 20th, 2018 1:07 am

 

Truth is Stranger than Fiction

Courtesy of 

Imagine Jamie Dimon made a killing shorting J.P. Morgan stock during the Great Financial Recession? And imagine he didn’t get in any trouble for it?

This actually happened 90 years ago at Chase Manhattan Bank, while Albert Wiggin was at the helm. This story was marvelously told in Once in Golconda, by John Brooks.

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May 16th, 2018 7:04 pm

Courtesy of Declan

Monday offered the bearish doji / swing high set up which had looked like it was going to create the 3-day bearish evening star set up across markets; this pattern did present itself Tuesday with the gap downs but today (Wednesday) saw rallies which were enough to close these gaps but not enough to negate the 'bearish evening star' setups. However, the bearish 'evening star' is typically a reliable setup and the lack of follow through lower suggests more upside is to come

The S&P had its breakout last week with supporting technicals all bullish, with the exception of relative performance. Despite this, look for a continuation of this rally.
 

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Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Studying poop samples, scientists find clues on health and disease

Though examining poop samples scientists working on the American Gut Project are getting a new perspective on the microbes in our guts. By Christos Georghiou/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Daniel McDonald, University of California San Diego

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HSBC Completes First Trade-Finance Deal Using Blockchain, Opening $9 Trillion Market For Mass Adoption

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The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

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The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of , Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

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Via Jean-Luc

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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

May 13th, 2016 2:40 pm

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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