These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

In hindsight, we can see that the value in 2014 $AAPL was real while the value in 2014 $IBM was fake. By Jesse Livermore, Chris Meredith, and Patrick O’Shaughnessy

The problem we will face throughout life is how to differentiate between causation and correlation—between signal and noise. By Nick Maggiulli

The fact that high beta firms tend to have lower quality and higher financial leverage is perhaps one good reason why the outperformance in bull markets is more than erased during bear markets. By David Varadi

Real math is painfully precise. Investment finance math is sales math. By Richard Wiggins & Michael Edesess

Unlike social security, many pensions suffer reverse compounding of purchasing power over time. By Tony Isola

Thanks for the reveal, Donald. By Barry Ritholtz

People’s actions don’t always live up to rational economic theories because of unintended consequences. By Ben Carlson

Every past decline looks like an opportunity, every future decline looks like a risk. By Morgan Housel

The majority of U.S. households do not need to save the max allowed in 401(k) plan. By Blair duQuesnay

A huge number of people can no longer tell the difference between news and opinion, fact and fiction. By Josh Brown

Podcasts

Your book is so famous in Poland that my students think you’re dead. With Barry Ritholtz and Robert Cialdini

Amazon is the Sears catalog of the 21st century. With Russ Roberts and Michael Munger

You have economic power going to progressives and political power going to red states. With Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway

The asset prices go first before the economy goes down. With Barry Ritholtz and Ray Dalio

Books

The burgeoning movie theaters of the 1920s were where the general public first experienced air-conditioning. By Tim Harford





  • Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

    RMM

  • Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too. I've learned so much and I hope you'll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way.

    Where

  • This site, for me, is where I have learned how to use options & futures. It is also where I get a constant flow of new ideas. In addition, it's great to know that I have many sources, mostly Phil, if I get lost in a trade. I have been here for 8 years, and am grateful to PHIL and fellow members. I manage about half a million, and although I may not always achieve what Phil does, I am not complaining. I have learned so much. Thank you Phil!

    DClark41

  • GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

    Winston

  • Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

    JWick1981

  • Aapl/Phil Thanks for your advice, always appreciated. So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop. Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50 Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed. And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings) So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock. Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not. Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun! More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset. Thanks!

    Maya1

  • Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

    Iflantheman

  • I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.

    Knightpilot

  • I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. I've learned a lot (and still am) about your trading strategy, but also I see a man who truly cares about our country, America. Thank you.

    Autolander

  • Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

    Magret

  • Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,

    Deano

  • Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

    MrMocha

  • Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!

    Deano

  • WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.

    Craigzooka

  • Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

    Gel1

  • Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.

    Hoss

  • Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!

    Jromeha

  • Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

    Jromeha

  • USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

    Ksone88

  • I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves. As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult. I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !

    1234Gel

  • Happy holidays to all members of PSW. Just completed my 6th year and still my favorite site to read. Thank you all for your contributions and support especially you, Phil!

    DClark41

  • Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.

    Scotbraze

  • Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

    Greg

  • Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

    flipspiceland

  • Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!

    Jfawcett

  • Phil – great calls this past week, esp. friday and monday. in the old days I would have let Prechter et al scare me into trimming my longs and going short at just the wrong time. your feel for the markets is Tiger-esque. CHK, HOV, BX, TLT and XLF are big winners for me today. My biggest up day in a long time. Thanks!

    Terrapin22

  • Thanks Phil for all you do. I feel like I don't read all the newsprint because when I check in with you I know I get the "real" scoop. Your service is number Uno in my book for all the knowledge and teaching. I ignored the aapl spin and am now enjoying some rewards. Every AM I get my Phil fix and throughout the day any important links. Mucho gracias. It leaves me time for my volunteer work besides the investing.

    Pirateinvestor

  • Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!

    Yodi

  • That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

    Kwan

  • Phil, I've got to give you props on the ICE spread play. Tremendous call! I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today. Nice 57% return ($2,300) over a mere 3 trading days! This is why I dig your site!

    Samlawyer

Monday Market Madness – Trump Leaves G20 Early, Skips Asia Summit Entirely

Oh what a beautiful morning!  

We went long on Gasolione (/RB) into the weekend as we expected OPEC to do SOMETHING to prop up Oil (/CL) at the $60 mark and we thought /RB Futures would make a good play into Thanksgiving regardless.  We did, in fact, get noise over the weekend that our freinds the Saudis see the need to cut oil ouput by another 1Mb/d next year to maintain "price stability".   

I had predicted we'd get down to $62 when I was interviewed on Nov 1st at Investing.com, but our first attempt to go long on oil and gasoline failed but this time /RB made the big payout with an almost $5,000 gain on 6 long contracts as we stopped out our last contracts at $1.64 - a nice way to start our week…

The next long attempt can be made over $1.65 on /RB or back at the $1.625 line and, of course, we'd love to give $1.60 another try but you have to use tight stops on Gasoline as the contracs pay OR LOSE $420 per penny of movement on each contract.

When you get a strong move based on a quote – even from a very reliable source – you have to look to take quick profits because, as is the case with Gasoline – nothing has Fundamentally changed – just some Saudi Oil minister says (while oil is failing $60 and US inventories alone are climbing by 5Mb/week) that they "might" need to cut Global Production by 7Mb/week – a month from now – if the other OPEC members agree. 

So, for future reference (and we've done this before but it's like school, I have to repeat things many times before a light bulb appears above the students' heads):  OPEC (now called the new and improved OPEC+ in an effort to rebrand and include Russia, Mexico and Kazakhstan) generally acts to support oil at $60 ($70 for Brent) like it's an emergency so wherever Gasoline is at the time tends to benefit as well and especially when you have a major down move, you can play the 5% Rule™ for a bounce:


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Economic Brake Lights

 

Economic Brake Lights

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”

~ Warren Buffett (b. 1930), 1987 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

~ George Santayana (1863–1952), Spanish-American philosopher

Those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it. Yet those who do study history are doomed to stand by helplessly while everyone else repeats it.

~ Tom Toro (b. 1982), American cartoonist for The New Yorker

All good things come to an end, even economic growth cycles. The present one is getting long in the tooth. While it doesn’t have to end now, it will end eventually. Signs increasingly suggest we are approaching that point.

Whenever it happens, the next downturn will hit millions who still haven’t recovered from the last recession, millions more who did recover but forgot how bad it was, and millions more who reached adulthood during the boom. They saw it as children or teens but didn’t feel the full impact. Now, with their own jobs and families, they will.

Again, there’s no doubt—none, zero, zip—this will happen. The main question is when. Just a few weeks ago, I had hopes we could postpone it possibly even beyond the 2020 elections. It could still happen, but a barrage of data in the last few weeks suggest this may be…
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Singles Day shows China’s global retail power

 

[See also: Chinese shoppers just spent a record $30.8 billion on Alibaba’s Singles Day]

Singles Day shows China's global retail power

File 20181108 74760 liy9cl.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

A mascot for Alibaba’s online shopping site Tmall urges customers to buy on Singles Day. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Venkatesh Shankar, Texas A&M University

Nov. 11, or 11/11, has been celebrated as Singles Day – a sort of anti-Valentine’s Day for single people – since 1993. Chosen because its date has four ones in a row, the holiday originated in China and has become the largest shopping day of the year, in both online and offline retail sales around the world. It’s a signal of shifting power in the global retail sales market, moving away from the U.S. and toward Asia – specifically China.

Alibaba, the giant Chinese e-retailer that promoted the day as an opportunity – or excuse – for single people to treat themselves with new purchases, has seen its revenues on Nov. 11 grow from US$100 million in 2009 to 250 times that in 2017, $25 billion. And that was only two-thirds of total online sales that day.

Singles Day dwarfs the three other largest online retail mega-events. In 2017, Thanksgiving weekend online sales – including Black Friday and Cyber Monday – totaled $7.3 billion. The third, Amazon’s Prime Day, in 2017 took in $100 million an hour – but Alibaba raked in 10 times that amount on Singles Day that year.

Getting in on the action

By 2022, Chinese middle-class shoppers as a group are projected to both outnumber and outspend U.S. customers. Retailers around the world are seeking to take advantage of this growing Chinese economic power, offering their own Singles Day deals and even seeking to expand the day into a longer festival: Alibaba is keeping its discounts going for 48 hours, and its main Chinese competitor, JD.com, began an 11-day festival from Nov. 1 to Nov. 11 with a set of limited-time discounts that grossed $865 million in its first hour.

Global brands like Adidas, Mattel, Mondelez, Nike
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Faltering Friday – Market Tries to Reconcile Election, Fed, White House Turmoil

Image result for china cyber crime cartoonAll kinds of stuff is happening.

At the moment (7:30) the futures are down a bit but not very much and we're still holding those huge gains from Wednesday – so all is well (ish).  There's new tensions with China as the NSA says Chinese Internet stocks are violating a 2015 Cybersecurity Agreement regarding intellectual property theft and that's a charge that should, techincally lead to even more sanctions against China.  Most likely, this is one of Trump's "negotiating tools" as he prepares for trade talks with Xi – another chip he has to bargain with.

Still, real or fake, these accusations are having very real effects on Chinese cyber-stocks, which are all heading lower pre-market, including AliBaba (BABA) who we would like to play bullish into their "Singles Day" on Sunday, but now we'll have to wait and see how the morning plays out.  Don't forget, Trump's unilateral sanctions are illegal unless he can cite "National Security Issues" and, if those don't exist – just make them up!  

Image result for trump no collusion cartoonWe're going to chalk up the timing of these charges, right before BABA's "Singles Day" and the fact that BABA's Jack Ma is critical of Trump's trade policies to be just another coincidence in Trumpland – where there's never any collusion – just many, Many, MANY coincidences…

China is, in fact, holding a massive International Import Expo this week and all of their Global Trading Partners are there – except us.  Our decision not to trade with the World's second-largest economy has opened up China to the rest of the World, who are thrilled to rush in and fill the voil – much like other countries rushed in to fill the voild of OPEC's cutbacks – and now oil is collapsing, down below $60 just a year after OPEC cut production.  Feel free to draw your own parallels…

Getting back to China, according to Bloomberg, there are 50M (22%) EMPTY Chinese homes, mostly homes that have been bought solely for speculation but the problem with that is, in a down market, those homes could flood the market into no demand and crash housing prices for everybody…
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I Remember When

 

I Remember When

Courtesy of 

I was eating a bagel this weekend when my wife said to me, “I can’t believe you like their tuna, it’s really fishy.” I hadn’t noticed, but she was right, it was fishy. I hate fish. I’ll have tuna on a bagel, but would never order tuna in a restaurant.

The reason why I suffer from taste bud dissonance is pretty simple, I’ve had tuna fish on a bagel since I was a child. “I remember when.”

“I remember when” shapes our beliefs. We view the world through the prism of our own experiences, whether we realize it or not.

In Everybody Lies, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz writes:

Many of our adult behaviors and interests, even those that we consider fundamental to who we are, can be explained by the arbitrary facts of when we were born and what was going on in certain key years when we were young.

The arbitrary fact of when we were born is everything when it comes to investing.

Where the market goes in your first ten years can have a disproportionate impact on how you think about investing for the remainder of your life. Consider an investor who started in 1946 (black) versus one who started in 1966 (light blue). The former got the chance to invest in a market that compounded at 16.7% while the latter saw stocks compound at just 3.3% while being ravaged by two bear markets.

When you were born might be the single most important factor when determining your experience in the market. It’s also the one that is completely out of your hands.

From 1926 to today, there are 993 rolling ten-year periods. A person just starting to invest could have seen a market that gained as much as 596% or lost as much as 37%. These are all of the paths below (thank you Nick).

The chart below breaks down all the different paths by return buckets. 5% of all ten-year periods saw a negative total return. 11.5% of ten-year


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Phil's Favorites

Global Auto Industry Collapse Continues As October EU Data Shows No Relief

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The outlook for the global automobile market has been increasingly dire lately, especially after a third quarter that saw sales drop in many major markets across the globe, including China. Now, the latest data from Europe suggests that the difficulties may be nowhere close to over despite optimistic fourth quarter guidance by companies like Volkswagen and Daimler AG. 

Deliveries of new passenger cars were down 7.4% in the EU and the European Free Trade Association in October from the year prior. This adds to a 23% drop that occurred during September according to data from the European Automobile Manufacture...



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Zero Hedge

Global Auto Industry Collapse Continues As October EU Data Shows No Relief

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The outlook for the global automobile market has been increasingly dire lately, especially after a third quarter that saw sales drop in many major markets across the globe, including China. Now, the latest data from Europe suggests that the difficulties may be nowhere close to over despite optimistic fourth quarter guidance by companies like Volkswagen and Daimler AG. 

Deliveries of new passenger cars were down 7.4% in the EU and the European Free Trade Association in October from the year prior. This adds to a 23% drop that occurred during September according to data from the European Automobile Manufacture...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs; Would Love This To Be A Double Top!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold, Silver, and the precious metals industry have a pretty simple relationship with the U.S. Dollar: They perform better when the Dollar is weakening… and they tend to struggle when the Dollar is strengthening.

One of our favorite ratios to monitor for Gold Bugs is the U.S. Dollar/Gold ratio. It tells us when the Dollar is weakening or heading lower (which is good for gold) or when it is strengthening or heading higher (bad for gold).

Looking at the Dollar/Gold chart below, we can see that the ratio climbed higher from late 2011 to early 2016. This wreaked havoc on Gold prices. Since peaking in early 2016, the ratio has formed a broad declining channel (pink shaded area). Each swing lower has provided a tailwind for Gold prices, while each counter-swing higher has been a headwind.

in ...



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Insider Scoop

Macy's Receives Mixed Analyst Reaction After Q3 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related M Big Box Bonanza: Walmart Beats Most Estimates, But Brexit Could Steal Attention Mid-A...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlik...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>