TGIF – Closing out a Weak Week for the Markets

Not just a weak week but a weak 45 days since February.

After testing our 30% line on the S&P 500 at 2,860 at the end of January, we plunged down to our 20% line at 2,640 in early Feb and now, 5 weeks later, we have struggled to hold the 25% line, which has now become the 50-day moving average as well at 2,750.

The annotation on the chart is not our 5% Rule™ but a simply Fibonacci retracement and it shows you what a cleanly technical move the market is making.  That, in turn, indicates that the majority of this trading is being done by robots and those robots are not trading with emotion or enthusiasm – they are just trading their pre-programmed ranges and it won't take much of a change of human hearts to send the whole thing crashing back down another 10% from here.  

I told CNBC in Japan earlier this week that my number one Global concern was a Trade War and now, in addition to steel and washing machine tariffs, we (and NATO) are sanctioning Russia and Russia is retaliating against us and now Trump is readying "sweeping tariffs and investment restrictions on China" – this is what a trade war is folks – no one declares it, it just happens step by diplomatic step.  Suddenly, among Conservatives, "Globalism" and "Globalists" have become bad words, words used to describe their enemies the way they used to say "Communist" and "Socialist".  These are very dangerous times, folks.

Image result for globalism cartoon

Image result for globalism cartoon

This myopic, anti-Progressive, anti-progress, protectionist view of the World comes right out of the early 1900s and in fact, the first "America First" Committe was formed as an attempt to keep the US from "meddling" in World War II and was "characterized by anti-semitic and pro-fascist rhetoric."  Trump's form of Fascism isn't anti-semetic yet, just anti-Muslim and anti-Mexican and anti-African and anti-Poor so, as long as you aren't one of THOSE – you're good – for now.  

Hoover's America First protectionism and tariffs landed us in the Great Depression and Hoover, like Trump, literally promised his base "A Chicken for
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  • Great call on expe Phil! Went long 50 shares and sold for a nice profit! And Great call on the nkd shorts as well. I didn't use a stop that tight and was able to cover for a $400 gain. Works been keeping me pretty busy and I'm jealous of all the members who are able to check in here more often! It's almost always quite profitable! Looking forward to Vegas!


  • Phil.... I remember back in March of '09, you stated " Unless you think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, NOW is the time to do your buying". Do you remember ? I took your advice, and bought leap $2.00 calls on F, approximately 200,000 shares using the options, for just pennies. Now that was the best Ford I ever owned.... made over $1 mil - thanks go to you Phil. I now drive a Mercedes but still "love" the Ford.


  • WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.


  • GMCR – Just bought back my Jan $90 callers on GMCR for a nice $10,000 gain. Thanks for the recommendation Phil! It was nice to cash in on a momo.


  • Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years. THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS


  • I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.


  • Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !


  • Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.


  • Phil - I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. What would you advise for getting long again. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us!


  • Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.


  • Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!


  • Against all prognostics (bears) Phil pointed in the morning the correct direction, and in middle of day he pointed the possible move to 2.5% Incredible… I'm starting to serious believe on the program trading and the human nature behind the programing those "trade-bots".


  • Hey Phil – I ignored your call to sell those AAPL $580s for $1 so not sure whether to thank you or not (just kidding) for my $5 winner. Actually I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, that was an uncanny call.


  • Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably. Happy New Years to you all!


  • Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,


  • 100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!


  • I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.


  • Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!


  • Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!

    Howard Roake

  • Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!


  • Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.


  • Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)


  • Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.


  • I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.


  • Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.


  • Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.


  • Happy holidays to all members of PSW. Just completed my 6th year and still my favorite site to read. Thank you all for your contributions and support especially you, Phil!


  • The legendary Phil Davis has done it again with his call to "get out of the market now" (12/05/2017). Congratulations Phil, and while I am at it, I again would like to Thank You for your advise given me in March '09, when you said "unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then get in this market with both feet"...... and what a ride that was !


  • I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.


  • Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…


The Weekly Webinar – 03-14-18


The Weekly Webinar – 03-14-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:56 Checking on the Markets
00:11:05 Active Trader
00:12:17 Indexes
00:20:27 Seeking Alpha Market News
00:25:59 S&P
00:32:09 Trade Ideas
00:41:36 CMG
00:45:43 Long-Term Portfolio
00:46:17 Short- Term Portfolio
00:49:01 Active Trader
00:55:42 KMI
01:07:01 RB
01:09:36 Petroleum Status Report
01:16:02 Active Trader
01:22:00 GDP Now
01:34:38 Trade ideas
01:37:27 WBA & CVS
01:55:42 Checking in the Markets

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!


Anthill 23: Bursting the Bitcoin bubble


Anthill 23: Bursting the Bitcoin bubble

File 20180313 30989 15jmdpj.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1


Courtesy of Annabel Bligh, The Conversation; Gemma Ware, The Conversation; Kelly Fiveash, The Conversation, and Will de Freitas, The Conversation



In this episode of The Anthill podcast from The Conversation, we’re delving into the world of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has come a long way since its launch by the mysterious person (or persons) Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008. The price of one Bitcoin hit a peak of more than US$19,000 in December 2017. It has since fallen below US$9,000.

Bitcoin has made a lot of headlines over the last year, but will it be the currency of the future? To find out, we spoke to professor of business history at Bangor University, Bernardo Batiz-Lazo, about what makes money money. He shared his doubts about Bitcoin – or any other cryptocurrency – going mainstream anytime soon.

And Larisa Yarovaya, lecturer in accounting and finance at Anglia Ruskin University, explains some of her recent research into the effect of US policy announcements on different cryptocurrencies. Her findings give some insights into whether or not they make good assets for investment. She also tells us how cryptocurrencies respond in different ways to the US dollar and gold.

For many, one of the big appeals of cryptocurrencies is the fact that they are not regulated by any governments. But different countries have responded in wildly different ways to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin. Initial coin offerings have been banned in South Korea, where regulators are considering shutting down local cryptocurrency exchanges. Meanwhile, the threat of regulation in China and elsewhere recently triggered a significant slide in Bitcoin’s value.

Russia, however, has been a hotbed of cryptocurrency innovation, where President Vladimir Putin wants to create infrastructure for the national adoption of virtual coins. And in Sweden there’s talk of releasing a national cryptocurrency.

The Conversation’s technology editor Kelly Fiveash spoke to lawyer Iwa Salami at the University of East London and Brian Lucey, finance expert at Trinity College Dublin, to take a closer look…
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Faltering Thursday – Market Struggles Around 50 DMAs, Again

Here come those tears again

Just when I was getting over you

Just when I was going to make it through

Thinking I might just be strong enough after all – Browne

Here we go again. 

If the markets were as strong as the Wall Street narrative suggests – they wouldn't keep failing the 50-day moving averages, would they?  Not only that but we STILL haven't gotten the broadest index, the NYSE, over their Must Hold level, which means we haven't even really confirmed a broad-market rally.  

Not only has the rally had a very narrow focus but, as it turns out, the main buyer of US Corporate stocks is — US Corporations!  Last week alone, US companies bought back $1.5Bn worth of stock through Bank America (BAC) alone – the biggest week they ever recorded.  In the past 3 months, $250Bn in additional buybacks have been announced, possibly pushing us to a $1Tn year in Corporate Buybacks or about 2.5% of the entire market.  

And, of course, they are not buying every stock, mostly their own so it's those big, Top 1% Corporations, 90 of the 9,000 listed companies – the ones who were given $1.5Tn worth of tax breaks by the Trump Administration – that are bringing back the cash they hid overseas to avoid paying taxes under Obama (at no penalty) – and are using it to buy back their own stock to mask the fact that earings are not actually improving by reducing the number of shares those earnings are divided by. 

All in all, it's just a huge Ponzi scheme where companies plow back declining profits into their own stock so the CEOs can justify their outrageous salaries and lure investors into their stock while insiders and Fund Managers (ie. "smart money") cashes out.  Then, when the whole thing ultimately collapses, they will say: "Who could have seen that coming?"  

I know it's complicated but
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The financial sector is professional gambling in action


The financial sector is professional gambling in action

File 20180313 30994 1d202l8.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1


Courtesy of Chris Brady, University of Salford

The American journalist and poet Ambrose Bierce wrote in his 1906 satire The Devil’s Dictionary that “the gambling known as business looks with severe disfavour on the business known as gambling”.

That phrase has a particular ring of truth about it when one starts to think about the “casino banking” that caused the financial crisis almost ten years ago. But that term was – and still is – a slur on casinos. If the financial services industry was as well-regulated and as well understood as the gambling industry, the financial collapse may have been avoided.

At the root of all financial bubbles, scams and scandals is the self-proclaimed “professionalism” of the financial sector – what Nobel Prize-winning economist Freidrick von Hayek referred to as “the pretence of knowledge”.

Portrait of Friedrich von Hayek. Wikipedia

Professionalism and distraction

Von Hayek admitted to the futility of trying to make economics “scientific” in the accepted sense of the word. Like any profession, the financial sector seeks to clothe its “pretence of knowledge” in the language it uses to distract its customers from recognising that it is simply an arm of the gambling industry. Substitute betting jargon for finance-speak and the reality becomes clearer. The majority of actions in the finance sector are bets.

The finance sector has a vested interest in dissociating itself from the gambling industry itself. In his book, The Poker Face of Wall Street, finance expert Aaron Brown said:

Gambling lies at the heart of economic ideas and institutions, no matter how uncomfortable many people in the financial industry are with the idea.

Indeed, in the immediate aftermath of Tulipmania (the manic buying of tulips and the ridiculous prices they achieved in the mid 17th-century Netherlands) the courts refused to rule in favour of sellers trying to enforce contracts for sale on the grounds that it was a “gambling operation”.

Bluffing and confidence

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World War Wednesday – “One Does Not Give 24 Hours Notice to a Nuclear Power!”

"Climbing up on Salisbury Hill

I could see the city light

Wind was blowing, time stood still

Standing, stretching every nerve

Had to listen, had no choice

I did not believe the information

Just had to trust my imagination" – Peter Gabriel

While you were sleeping…

You know that funny story about the former Russian spy and his daughter who were poisoined in the UK (Salisbury) on March 4th and how the British investigated it and, Monday, Theresa May told Parliament that it was "highly likely" the Russians were responsible?  Well the British demanded an immediate response from the Kremlin or Britain would immediately place sanctions on them and now it gets REALLY amusing as the Kremlin called May's speech to Parliament "a circus" and, when they say "circus" they mean the boring Russian kind with no animals!  

Then (and here's where it gets REALLY funny), Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova replied (or threatened – it's hard to tell the difference with Russians):

"One does not give 24 hours notice to a nuclear poweradding that the "Skripal poisoning was not an incident but a colossal international provocation."

THEN things got really crazy (not Trump crazy, but crazy for normal people) as a Twitter war erupted between the UK and the Russian Embassy:

  • “Moscow will not respond to London’s ultimatum until it receives samples of the chemical substance to which the UK investigators are referring.

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Phil's Favorites

Will #deletefacebook become a thing?


Will #deletefacebook become a thing?

Courtesy of 

It’s always hard to tell whether or not people will follow through with these sorts of memes…

This is the cover of the new Bloomberg Business magazine:

And here is the accompanying story from Paul Ford.

This tweet is getting a lo...

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Zero Hedge

What Happens Next In The Global Trade War: A Q&A With Goldman Sachs

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Today, according to Politico, the White House will unveil its plan to hit China with tariffs and other trade restrictions, one day ahead of schedule as President Trump is slated to outline the results of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's investigation into allegations that China violates U.S. intellectual property rights by forcing American companies to transfer valuable technology to Beijing.

Lighthizer’s office has determined that the US loses at least $30BN a year to China’s alleged forced technology transfers, and the administration is weighing a package of tariffs equivalent to that amount of Chinese imports; according to Reuters it could be as high ...

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Insider Scoop

20 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.


  • Proteostasis Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTI) shares rose 12.4 percent to $5.80 in pre-market trading after the company reported withdrawal of equity offering due to market conditions.
  • China Auto Logistics Inc. (NASDAQ: CALI) shares rose 10.8 percent to $4.40 in pre-market trading after surging 15.41 percent on Tuesday.
  • Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: FENC) rose 8.9 percent to $10.38 in pre-market trading a... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Chart School

Bears Take Control

Courtesy of Declan.

More decisive action from bears today as markets lose support.  The S&P undercut the rising trendline and 20-day plus 50-day MAs in a move which looks like it could develop into a test of the February spike low and the 200-day MA again; support at 2,695 is looking critical here. Aggressive traders could look to buy at these levels but confidence in this holding would not be high.

The Dow also saw its 'bear flag' / consolidation triangle resolve to the downside. The two positives were the relatively light volume and the ...

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Peter Thiel: Need To Rethink Tariffs In Light Of Trade Deficit With China; SF Sucks, Bitcoin Rocks

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel in a wide-ranging interview on President Trump’s trade tariffs, China’s economy, technology regulations and his outlook for bitcoin.


Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here.

Peter Thiel: Need To Rethink Tariffs In Light Of Trade Deficit With China

Peter Thiel On Leaving Silicon Valley For Los Angeles

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel argues Silicon Valley is is a ‘totalitarian place’ where people are not allowed to have dissenting views.


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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>