When Will The Coronavirus Lockdowns Be Lifted? Here Are One Bank’s Estimates
by Zero Hedge - April 6th, 2020 7:04 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge
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With most of the developed world on lockdown, and markets and economies paralyzed until there is a material decline in new coronavirus cases, i.e., until we slide "over the hump" of the coronavirus curve, the biggest question – and variable – in assessing the economic damage unleashed by the covid-19 virus is the length of the lockdowns now in force, with Deutsche Bank's Luke Templeman pointing out that "politicians and health officials have discussed dates ranging anywhere from weeks to over a year."
In an attempt to answer this most important for capital markets question, namely when will the civic and economic restrictions begin to be lifted in various key countries, Deutsche Bank provides some estimates largely based on the experience of the lockdown and reopening in China's Hubei province.
Using the "Chinese" experience as indicative of what other countries can achieve, recent studies have confirmed that after implementing various suppression measures, several large countries “appear to be converging onto the decline in the daily growth rate of deaths” seen in China. An Imperial College study in particular pointed out that the overall number of deaths in other countries could be between two and eight times the number of deaths as in China.
As DB notes, one way to look at how other countries are converging on the experience in Hubei province, China is shown in the following chart. As the German bank explains, it uses "a three-day comparison in order to filter out the noise from sudden jumps and drops when figures were relatively small. We also start each time series at the point at which restrictions were introduced to attempt a closer comparison. We then show all the countries individually against the Hubei experience."
With that in mind, here's China:
Looking at the charts above, at first glance it appears that the growth rate in the number of fatalities in Hubei province is
…
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Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.
Jomptien
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I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.
Winston
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Thanks for you guidance – Your "student" will be passing on the McMuffins and having Lobster dinners tonight!
Aquila
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Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.
Escohen5
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I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.
Pstas
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Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404
Jordan
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Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.
Dstillwe
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Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!
Iflantheman
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What a quarter! (AAPL, etc.) "People react; PSW'ers anticipate." Thanks everyone for a vibrant board.
Silentstorm
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From following Phil I have opened up BCS and occasion will strangle some stocks. I will occasionally hedge using an ETF ultra. I have a big take down occasionally but so far I am way ahead of the S&P, and since buying into PSW some years ago by seeing Phil on Seeking Alpha I feel more confident in my abilities. FYI I am a retired entrepreneur formerly in the real estate and insurance businesses.
Newthugger
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GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.
lflantheman
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Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational. I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade. Keep it up…. Thanks
JFawcett
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HOTT / Got great trades with it: Enter 6.75 at open, out at 7.18 (avg) at 10:13 Reentered at 7.00 and out all 7.11 few minutes ago- Was a small play but I collected enoght for next month PSW subscription.
Spider
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/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
JohnO
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USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.
Ksone88
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Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!
Josiah
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I have been a member off and on for years. Using these techniques I do consistently beat the S&P 500. Phil's Stock World has been the most important site in my financial life. It's impact on me over the past years has been huge. As have my tax bills!
Knightpilot
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PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.
Winston
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10/15/2014: Phil…..been travelling more than not but reading and watching you guys every night. This is to say a big thank you. Even though I don't have the time to trade every day now I set up hedges and base long term strategy on PSW. I now it may sound like BS to some readers but my 401k is down a mere 3%. It hardly gets my attention when I open my brokerage portfolio accounts. And that is by using your longer term hedges and strategies. I don't need to be a day trader to take advantage of PSW. At this time in my life when I cant trade every day……. not losing what we've gained moves front and center. It's just a great feeling to watch your brokerage account hold steady in a sea of red. Thanks Teacher.
Livingfull
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Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.
DOStrade
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There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.
Jr Mints
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Phil – I think I finally figured out your "crystal ball" time frame. You're about 5-14 days AHEAD of what the market is going to do. It's taken me a long time to realize this, but boy it's been profitable. I go in when you recommend something at about 25% allocation, and then add to it each day it "goes the wrong way" Then BOOM, one day it's all good…. The long put list was literally exact in it's timing.
Burrben
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Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.
IHS4GOD
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@Philip Davis, Per my review you are the best options trader that I have seen. You've made money for your investors and those that subscribe to your service. Many cudos to you for a just ahead of the curve buying or selling opportunity. Yes, you've hit HRs when others were hitting singles.
153972
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Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here
Mopar
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I thank you for the years of being my teacher, always took the time to answer my questions. You are the BEST !
QCMike
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We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.
Newthugger
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I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Captain Mogul
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Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.
Hoss
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Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!
Jromeha
How to Buy Stocks for a 15-20% Discount
by phil - April 6th, 2020 7:37 am
That's the position a lot of people are finding themselves at the moment and some part of that is, of course, from the overall market drop but a lot of that is from paying too much when they bought the stock in the first place. At Philstockworld.com, we teach our Members to NEVER pay retail prices for a stock – that's what retail traders do – not professional traders!
First of all, see our article about Scaling Into Positions from the Strategy Section of Philstockworld.com. The very short story is that you should never make a full commitment to a position early on. You should break your portfolio down into Allocation Blocks (see Strategy Section) equal to no more than 10% and preferably 5% of your portfolio so that no one position can break you and THEN you break your allocation blocks into quarters and each position should be started with a 1/4 entry.
Now, not only can no single position damage your portfolio but no single entry should be able to damage it either. For example, Disney (DIS) seemed like a very safe stock and, even at $140, it wasn't terribly overpriced but then the virus hit and all the movie theaters closed and the theme parks closed and POOF! – half their business disappeared and the stock dropped to $85 before recovering a bit to $94. Had you bought DIS for $140 in February, you'd be down 33%.
Had you, however, made a 1/4 allocation to DIS in Feb, let's say buying 100 shares for $14,000 in a $50,000 allocation block, you would have plenty of buying power to buy 100 more at $90 ($9,000) and your average on 200 shares would be would be $115 ($23,000) – not even 1/2 of your $50,000 and down only 18.3% on the larger position.
If DIS dropped another 33% to $62 (and we're assuming you still want to be in the stock, of course), you would have $27,000 on the sidelines in your allocation block and you could buy 200 more shares for just $12,400,…
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How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work
by ilene - April 5th, 2020 4:33 am
How high will unemployment go? During the Great Depression, 1 in 4 Americans were out of work
Unemployed people wait outside a government office in NYC in 1933. AP Photo
By Jay L. Zagorsky, Boston University
The U.S. unemployment rate climbed from a half-century low of 3.5% to 4.4% in March – and is expected to go a lot higher.
But could the rate, as some predict, surpass the 25% joblessness the U.S. experienced at the peak of the Great Depression?
As a macroeconomist who has tracked the labor force for decades, I’ve been wondering about this myself.
There are actually two figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to estimate employment levels in the U.S.
One is the unemployment rate, which comes from the Current Population Survey. The U.S. Census Bureau contacts about 60,000 randomly selected households every month to get an estimate of this rate.
The other is an estimate of how many nonfarm jobs were lost or created in the month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics creates these figures by asking more than 140,000 private businesses, nonprofits and various state and local governments how many people were on their payroll at any time during the week containing the 12th of the month.
The latest data show the economy lost 701,000 jobs in March.
But these are just very early estimates of the impact from the coronavirus. It will get a lot worse before it gets better. About 10 million people have applied for employment benefits in the past two weeks alone.
The employment surveys – single-week snapshots – were both taken in mid-March, around the time the U.S. first began to experience a sharp uptick in cases, and some states, such as New York and California, ordered businesses to close. Both surveys likely only reflect the very early effects of the pandemic.
In addition, they consider someone employed even if they worked only part of that week. Starting off the week employed and ending the week laid…
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More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term.
by ilene - April 4th, 2020 2:03 am
David Brin is a scientist, transparency/internet security expert, public speaker, consultant, social media influencer and best-selling author. You can find his books on his website, and his latest articles on his blog.
More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term.
Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog
First off, I want to discuss a couple of generalities. Let’s start with a fellow by name of Hyman Minsky, whose insights into the nature of stability in human systems have been getting a lot of attention. Basically, during times of great stability, many people – taking continuity for granted – pile up ever greater amounts of risk without hedging against a reversal… till reversal happens — a "Minsky Moment" when instability suddenly returns, at which point things shake out amid lots of pain. Perhaps everyone adjusts together, weaning themselves of bad habits and making things work better, with more wisdom. Alternately, things may go as Karl Marx, described, viewing such shakeouts as inevitably both culling the capitalist class and impoverishing workers, leading to revolution.
Take the example of Japan, which had fine-tuned their economy according to the teachings of American quality and efficiency guru W. Edwards Demming. Taking Demming to an extreme, Toyota led at innovating ultra slim, just-in-time supply chains that squeeze every possible drop of margin from goods and services. Like an athlete who tunes her body to perfectly perform a particular movement, companies following Demming principles aimed for zero on-site storage or stockpiling – equivalent to the athlete’s nonexistent fat reserves. And just like such an athlete, stuck on a life-raft for a week without supplies, Japanese companies learned the “Minsky folly” of their mistake, when an exogenous shock – the Fukushima disaster – shattered supply chains and Japan virtually shut down.
As futurist Jamais Cascio put it: "The villainization of over-capacity has been a hallmark of the current post-industrial capitalism environment. What we have seen over the past couple of months is the value of slack in a world that’s gone unstable." (Personal correspondence.) Certainly the short-sighted selling off of federal U.S. medical stockpiles, not long ago, is a rabid chicken now coming home to roost. One might wonder if this correlates with the rise of MBAs and decline of engineers in corporate boardrooms.
…
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Friday Market Workshop – Portfolio Repair Part 4 – Adjusting Our Goals to Reflect Reality
by phil - April 3rd, 2020 8:32 am
Time to get real.
We've had 3 Workshops so far on fixing our portfolios this week:
- Portfolio Repair Part 1 – Damage Assessment
- Portfolio Repair Part 2 – Resetting Your Positions
- Portfolio Repair Part 3 – Adjusting our Hedges
Now we move onto a very important topic that combines what we have learned and that is Adjusting our Goals. I talked about this on Tuesday (Part 2) in the Boeing example for someone who bought Boeing at $350 and now it's $150 (today it's $123!) and we do not sit there and HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) that BA will go back to $350 because it's no longer realistic!
As much as you may love a stock – you have to be realistic when there is damage done to it's financial position or outlook and you have to adjust your expectations accordingly – perhaps even considering abandoning the stock altoghether – especially in times like these when there are other fantastic stocks on sale and, even as I say this, I'm thinking that BA is not really a fantastic stock anymore – they simply have too many troubles to be excited about them – even at $123.
So today we'll take a look at our Earnings Portfolio, which started out with $100,000 on October 21st and was originally supposed to be just quick earnings plays but, the way things went, we ended up getting "stuck" in some good bargains (or we thought as the time) and we rolled them into longer-term bets. So now it's a bit of a hybrid but that makes it interesting. At the moment, we're at $132,078 so up 32% for the year but, as you'll see – NOT because our picks were any good – but because our HEDGES saved us!
Notice we have more cash than the portfolio has value – that's because we follow our core Philosphy, which is: "Be the House – NOT the Gambler", which means we always try to be sellers of premium, not buyers and that gives us a huge advantage in our trades while also dropping a lot of cash into…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 04-01-2020
by clarisezoleta - April 2nd, 2020 10:20 am
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.
Major Topics:
00:01:49 – Checking on the Markets
00:04:19 – Earnings Portfolio
00:05:46 – STP
00:10:37 – Weekly Petroleum Status Report
00:17:01 – Crude Oil WTI | Butterfly Portfolio
00:25:24 – AAPL
00:22:57 – TSLA
00:26:30 – Earnings Portfolio
00:37:20 – COVID-19 Update
01:17:33 – IMAX
01:22:16 – F
01:24:16 – DOW
01:28:50 – Sugar
01:31:07 – Margin Portfolios
01:51:19 – ET
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – click here to join us at PSW!
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.