Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes
by ilene - July 5th, 2020 2:28 pm
I don't see how universities can be safely reopened. Classes may have to shift to largely or only online. Dorms, if they reopen, would probably need to limit rooms to one person, and maybe only for students without other options. This would obviously be a financial disaster for many colleges and millions of people. The federal government would ideally step in to help universities and employees survive financially. Any thoughts?
Ethical challenges loom over decisions to resume in-person college classes
It’s hard to social distance on campus. AP Photo/Rick Bowmer
Courtesy of Neta C. Crawford, Boston University
By early July, about 80% of U.S. campuses were planning to resume at least some in-person instruction, even as a growing numbers of faculty are voicing concerns about safety.
As Michael Sorrell, president of Paul Quinn College, argues, “Because we do not yet have the ability to bring students and staff back to campus while keeping them safe and healthy, we simply cannot return to business as usual.” Sorrell says that bringing students back in this context “constitutes an abdication of our moral responsibility as leaders.”
But this isn’t just about the responsibilities of individual campuses and university leaders to do what’s right. As a scholar of ethics, I believe it is unwise and unethical for government to leave schools largely on their own to navigate in deciding whether and how to open their campuses. The health risks are too high.
I also consider it unwise and unethical for the federal government and the states to leave so much of the financial burden that COVID-19 places on the higher education sector up to schools to resolve on their own.
Paul Quinn College President Michael Sorrell announces the school’s plans for an all-virtual instruction model for the fall 2020 semester.
Pressure to resume on-campus education
So far, few campuses have said they plan to go all or almost entirely online. The California State University system, with the exception of a few classes, will go online. University of Massachusetts Boston administrators say…
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Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!
dclark41
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Peace of mind / I have a portfolio mainly consisting of long term long calls, short term short calls and puts, and long term BCS. Three years, ago when I started my journey on this board I would be freaking out panicking as to what to do, as many of the short calls are ITM, Three years later (today) I look at the screen and serenely process the information. Three years ago, I inevitably made the wrong decisions which cost me a lot of money. Three years on I calmly roll the positions to whatever makes sense. No drama, no hair pulling, and a great cost saver. I guess they call that the power of education.
Winston
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Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.
Winston
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thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….
Kwan
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Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!
zeroxzero
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I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!
Jerseyside
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I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
JeffDoc
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Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.
JBaker
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I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…
Kwan
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What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????
Jablams
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Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)
Japarikh
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Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!
Newthugger
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It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.
Pirateinvestor
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I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.
Flipspiceland
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Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Singapore Steve
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I doubled down on our USO June $35 puts on Tuesday afternoon and listened to your posting yesterday and sold 1/2 midday and the rest I sold (luckily) at the top of the market yesterday with the last 1/4 of my contracts at 100% return in less than one day!
Samlawyer
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Phil/CLK4 – Perfect! Saw the answer 1 min after my post…out with $740 on two contracts. Thanks again for the education.
Jeffdoc2004
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10/15/2014: Phil…..been travelling more than not but reading and watching you guys every night. This is to say a big thank you. Even though I don't have the time to trade every day now I set up hedges and base long term strategy on PSW. I now it may sound like BS to some readers but my 401k is down a mere 3%. It hardly gets my attention when I open my brokerage portfolio accounts. And that is by using your longer term hedges and strategies. I don't need to be a day trader to take advantage of PSW. At this time in my life when I cant trade every day……. not losing what we've gained moves front and center. It's just a great feeling to watch your brokerage account hold steady in a sea of red. Thanks Teacher.
Livingfull
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GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.
Winston
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SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.
Sibe14 (premium)
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I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?
Bill Hoffman
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Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.
Jomptien
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Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!
Greg
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Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!
Jfawcett
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Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke
Coke
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Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!
Yodi
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Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…
Arivera
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I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.
Prof
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I thank you for the years of being my teacher, always took the time to answer my questions. You are the BEST !
QCMike
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Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!
Iflantheman
The Blacker Swan
by ilene - July 4th, 2020 6:24 pm
The Blacker Swan
Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline
“A similar effect is taking place in economic life. I spoke about globalization in Chapter 3; it is here, but it is not all for the good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words, it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are now interrelated. So, the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks (often Gaussianized [bell curve] in their risk measurement)—when one falls, they all fall.
The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur… I shiver at the thought. I rephrase here: we will have fewer but more severe crises. The rarer the event, the less we know about its odds. It means that we know less and less about the possibility of a crisis.”
—Nicholas Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan, presciently written 2006ish
Happy Fourth of July, when we in the United States celebrate independence from England. This year ironically proves independence has limits. It didn’t protect us from a virus that originated elsewhere.
In a further irony, the same virus has compelled every government on the planet to, in various ways, declare independence from allies and trading partners. Similarly, consumers and businesses have also declared a kind of “independence” from each other because close contact is suddenly risky.
We knew pandemics happen and can have big consequences. No one knew in 2019 one was coming in 2020. It was what my friend Nassim Taleb called a “Black Swan” in his 2007 book with that title. (That book, along with Antifragile, are his two best. You only need to read the first half…
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Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem
by ilene - July 3rd, 2020 4:31 pm
Coronavirus deaths and swelling public sector debt share a data-quality problem
Different countries report coronavirus data differently. Shutterstock.com
Courtesy of Marion Boisseau-Sierra, Cambridge Judge Business School
Watching scientists, politicians and journalists struggle to compare national death rates from the coronavirus pandemic, I had an acute case of déjà vu. Though the virus may be novel, the confusion generated by inconsistent data standards is anything but. It’s something I’ve observed closely for many years in studying public sector debt.
Such league table comparisons in both cases are simply not reliable. The pandemic has shown that public health data and economic data share the same flaws and challenges regarding basic accounting issues. Chief among these is how different countries measure data and how to harmonise data that comes from lots of different sources.
Take harmonisation. The UK is widely reported to have the highest number of coronavirus deaths in Europe. But what is considered to be a COVID-19 death is, in fact, not commonly defined. Spain and Germany count all deaths where the person had tested positive for COVID-19. As testing capacities were limited at the beginning of the pandemic, this limited the number of COVID-19 deaths actually reported. France (like the UK) first counted only hospital deaths, before adding deaths in elderly homes. Belgium includes untested but suspected persons in its numbers.
Such lack of harmonisation is hardly confined to Europe. In the US, methods vary from one state to another, with lots of states initially not including retirement homes in their reporting. This lack of harmonised data makes it very difficult to compare what’s going on and to accurately study the spread of the disease.
We see the same pattern in public sector debt measurements. The most commonly used numbers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – two of the world’s biggest producers of global economic data – are not reliably comparable.
Yet politicians compare them all the time. And this mixing of apples and oranges will surely grow even more complicated and unreliable as countries around the world massively increase their debt levels by spending to prop up economies…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 07-01-2020
by clarisezoleta - July 2nd, 2020 5:01 pm
For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!
Major Topics:
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW!
You can also subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars here.
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50,000 New Infection Thursday – Happy Holiday!
by phil - July 2nd, 2020 8:25 am
50,000 new infections!
That's right, that's the 5th time in the past 7 days the US has hit new all-time single-day highs in infections. Over in Japan, six weeks after Tokyo lifted it's State of Emergency, they are back to their May highs in daily infections. At this point, I don't think there is much to do about it. Clearly humanity has no taste for the obvious way to control the disease and very clearly Americans don't. Maybe the "herd immunity" crowd was right – cows don't go into lockdown when a disease strikes – some die, some don't and the rest of the herd moves on…
I don't suppose a cow puts much thought into it's vulnerability or what will become of it's children and loved ones or how it's business will survive or how it's carelessness might affect his fellow cows - AND NEITHER DO AMERICANS APPARENTLY! Maybe we just eat to many cows and we are starting to think (or not think) like them? Texas eats a lot of meat and they had 8,000 new infections yesterday but Arizona, which has 1/4 of Texa's population, had 4,700 new cases – more than half, so about 5 times the infection rate of Texas.
From Japan and other countries that have had re-infections, it's very clear that bars are a major cause of the spread of the infection yet the bars are open in most states for what is usually a big drinking weekend as we bow to pressure from the Liquor Lobby to keep things flowing while completely ignoring the Rational For God's Sake Will Humanity at Least Try to Save Itself Lobby – as usual. As noted by David Leonhardt:
Government policy and economic forces have combined to make corporations and the wealthy more powerful, and most workers and their families less powerful. These workers receive a smaller share of society’s resources than they once did and often have less control over their lives. Those lives are generally shorter and more likely to
…
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A summer of protest, unemployment and presidential politics – welcome to 1932
by ilene - July 2nd, 2020 1:22 am
A summer of protest, unemployment and presidential politics – welcome to 1932
The Bonus Army stages a demonstration at the empty Capitol on July 2, 1932. Underwood and Underwood, photographers; Library of Congress
Courtesy of James N. Gregory, University of Washington
An election looms. An unpopular president wrestles with historic unemployment rates. Demonstrations erupt in hundreds of locations. The president deploys Army units to suppress peaceful protests in the nation’s capital. And most of all he worries about an affable Democratic candidate who is running against him without saying much about a platform or plans.
Welcome to 1932.
I am a historian and director of the Mapping American Social Movements Project, which explores the history of social movements and their interaction with American electoral politics.
The parallels between the summer of 1932 and what is happening in the U.S. currently are striking. While the pandemic and much else is different, the political dynamics are similar enough that they are useful for anyone trying to understand where the U.S. is and where it is going.
Tanks and mounted troops advance to break up a Bonus Marchers’ camp of veterans protesting lost wages, Washington D.C., July 28, 1932. PhotoQuest/Getty Images
Multiracial street protest movement
In 1932, as in 2020, the nation experienced an explosion of civil unrest on the eve of a presidential election.
The Great Depression had deepened through three years by 1932. With 24% of the work force unemployed and the federal government refusing to provide funds to support the jobless and homeless as local governments ran out of money, men and women across the country joined demonstrations demanding relief.
Our mapping project has recorded 389 hunger marches, eviction fights and other protests in 138 cities during 1932.
Although less than the thousands of Black Lives Matter protests, there are similarities.
African Americans participated in these movements, and many of the protests attracted police violence. Indeed, the unemployed people’s movement of the early 1930s…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.