CROX/8800 – Been a while since we played them.  They are a $6Bn company now – that's crazy!  Making about $550M a year so $6Bn is very fair but they sold off anyway.  I think they gave too good guidance and expectations were too high but nothing wrong with them.  Still, I'd let them find a bottom but this is a good entry point.

At the moment, we can:

• Sell 10 CROX 2024 $65 puts for $12 ($12,000) to net in for $53 – about half the current price.  
• Buy 10 2024 $75 calls for $40 ($40,000) 
• Sell 10 2024 $125 calls for $21 ($21,000) 

That would be net $7,000 on the $50,000 spread that's $20,000 in the money – so a good place to start.  Let's add that to the Earnings Portfolio, which has plenty of cash.

Also, in the LTP, let's sell 10 of those 2024 $65 puts for $12 – because who doesn't like $12,000?  

Speaking of doing nothing AND taking things off the table, the Money Talk Portfolio is back to 140% after being down to 120% on the 25th.  Of course we're unable to make adjustment between shows but I'm on tomorrow so let's make this our first portfolio review of the week:

• BYD – Pretty new and well on track.  Our premise on this one (sports betting) was solid and seems to be playing out and we're at $17,275 out of a potential $40,000 so we still have $22,725 (131%) left to gain.  Certainly no reason to get out of that!  Good for a new trade, in fact…

• GOLD –   We rolled our longs lower in September and now we are reaping the rewards.  Net $9,287 out of a potential $30,000 leaves us with $20,713 (223%) upside potential and it's a great inflation hedge (and Gold is having a great day today).  

• HPQ – Already in the money at net $9,210 out of a possible $20,000 so $10,790 (117%) left to gain if we hold $35.  The puts are way out of the money, so no worries there and the spread is tight ($5), so we're not likely to take a big hit in a downturn and we'd be very happy to roll our long 2023 $30s ($8.25) to the 2024 $25s ($13) if HPQ goes lower so no reason not to ride this one out.

• IBM – We were very conservative with this spread so already in the money at net $12,675 out of a potential $30,000 if IBM can hold $115.  So we fully expect to make $17,325 (136%) more and, if not, happy to re-invest.  

• INTC – Sold off a bit and we're back to where we started at net $200 and that's no surprise with the chip shortage, etc.  It's a $20,000 spread so $19,800 (9,900%) of upside potential and I love this trade!  

• MO – Just had nice earnings and legalization of marijuana in the US could be huge for them.  It's a $15,000 spread at net $7,549 so $7,451 (98.7%) left to gain is nothing to throw away.

• SPWR – Finally, something we can adjust!  SPWR is selling their commercial division to TTE for $310M and SPWR's total income for 2022 was projected to be $35M so another $310M will certainly help!  Their market cap at $16 is $2.7Bn.  TTE is the majority owner of SPWR as well (50.83%).  The cash improves SPWR financially and allows them to finance their transition to Consumer, which we already expected.  It's a long-term play and we need to be patient but that doesn't mean we can't make adjustments:  The 25 short 2024 $35 calls are down 81.5% to $1.41 ($3,513) so of course we want to lock it in and buy those back as well as the 15 short Jan $25 calls at $1.68 ($2,513).  Our 35 long 2024 $25 calls at $3.23 can be rolled down to the 2024 $15 calls at $6 for net $2.77 ($9,695) and we know, if we'd like, we can sell 35 of the $25s for $3.23 to someone else and get $11,305 back but, for now, we're spending net $15,721 to get more aggressive without the cover.  Should SPWR get back to $25 now, this would be a $35,000 spread but we're not going to project any gains until we see this thing find a bottom.

• VIAC – These guys finally found a bottom and we're fine with the $40 target, which seems pretty easy to get to.  It's currently net $23,875 on the $60,000 spread so we have $36,125 (151%) of upside potential here – well worth keeping! 

• WBA – We waited a long time for them to wake up and we hit our goal but now backtracking a bit.  Still, $52.50 seems very reasonable and currently net $5,974 on the $18,750 spread so $12,776 (213%) of upside potential is another solid position.  

Damn, these positions are too good to cash in.  Although they currently net $80,423 as a group, we have $147,705 (183% of cash in play) of upside potential over the next two years – plus whatever we make on SPWR.  We don't really need new positions with this kind of firepower but we do feel they are rock-solid (they have to be as we only touch them quarterly on the show) so we may as well put some of our sideline money to work but we also want to stay cashy and cautious until the market does stabilize.  

We have 3 Techs, so no more tech and that's counting SPWR as Energy and not Tech.  BYD is Entertainment, I guess and so is VIAC then.  MO and WBA are Consumer Sales and HPQ is Tech but Consumer Tech.  So definitely no more Tech!  

C is interesting.  

T we are only avoiding because the stock split will be messy but what a shame.

Someone asked recently where our watch list was.  It's here:  Fabulous Thursday – Ending the Year on Top

• Medtronic (MDT) is another old favorite and $104 is 23% off the high and a $140Bn market cap for a company that makes about $4Bn/year and is growing nicely.  As with ALK, I'd be happy to promise to buy them if they get cheaper. 

• Generac (GNRC) is a generator company we always like when they are down and $347 is 33% off the highs at $22Bn and these guys made $351M in 2020 and are making $604M this year and project $756M for 2022.  Every time there's a natural disaster – their phones ring and, the way this World is warming – business will be booming for years to come.

But MDT reminds me we like LABU, and I think they've suffered enough at $18.50 and they have such exciting upside potential.  So, we're going to do a mixed trade by selling MDT puts to pay for a LABU bull spread:

• Sell 5 MDT 2024 $90 puts for $9 ($4,500)
• Buy 20 LABU 2023 $15 calls for $8 ($16,000) 
• Sell 20 LABU 2023 $30 calls for $4 ($8,000) 

That's net $3,500 on the $22,500 spread so we have $19,000 (542%) upside potential and plenty of room to  adjust along the way.  

Adjusting our RKT trade from the Morning Report:

Here's one we can play with.  Rocket Mortgage (RKT) was added to our Future is Now Portfolio as a Top Trade Alert on October 29th.  The stock has tanked on rate worries and a sharp slowdown in mortgage applications, but I do like them for the long haul.  Our current position is:

So we have a $4,150 loss and we spent $2,750 initially so we can close the trade down for a $6,900 loss or we can spend $2.59 ($6,475) to roll the 2024 $13 calls to the $2024 $8 calls at $6 and we can recoup some of that outlay by selling 10 of the June $13.89 calls for $1.10 ($1,100).  That would leave us in what is now a $30,000 spread that is $10,000 in the money for net net $8,125.  Better to spend $3,975 to reposition the trade favorably than dump it for $6,900 and the fact that we can generate $1,100 using 126 of the 707 days we have to sell indicates that, even if the stock stays flat – we should be able to grind our way back to even.  

FreightCar America turns profitable on strong delivery growth: Special Update

RAIL +6.95%Feb. 08, 2022 8:48 AM ET7 Comments

• FreightCar America (NASDAQ:RAIL) has provided business update and outlook for the next year ahead of its special call with investors scheduled for later in the day.
• The company records its first positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2021 at the Castaños facility with total railcar deliveries up 130% Y/Y for the year.
• During the quarter, FreightCar completed its transition of railcar manufacturing operations to Castaños, Mexico, making it the only railcar manufacturer serving the North American markets with production exclusively in Mexico.
• Booked 1,032 new railcar orders.
• Annual fixed cost savings of approximately $20M.
• The company ended the quarter with $26.2M in total cash and liquidity of over $40M.
• FY 2022 Outlook: FreightCar targets to achieve 2,350 – 2,650 railcars deliveries during the next year, an increase of over 44% Y/Y at the midpoint.
• To stay Adjusted EBITDA positive.
• Complete construction of additional production lines, doubling annual capacity to between 4,000 – 5,000 railcars by early 2023.
• Also, the company aims to add operational efficiencies through expansion scheduled for completion by mid of this year.
• "2022 will be the first year for which our operations and results will not be obscured by restructuring activities. As such, we believe that our performance this year will provide more clarity on the full potential of FreightCar America," said President and CEO Jim Meyer.
• The company has scheduled its fourth quarter and full year 2021 results to be released on March 22, 2022.
• Stock is up 2% in premarket trading.
• This FreightCar's investor call event was flagged in this week's Seeking Alpha Catalyst Watch; see what's coming next this week.

I like RAIL – I think there's a lot of growth potential there.  

Thinly traded options but it looks like you can sell 2024 $5 puts for $2.50 to net $2.50 so you make 100% even in an IRA for promising to buy them for a 37.5% discount to the current price.   Seems very reasonable.  They don't make any money but don't lose much either and only $265M in sales and only $60M valuation means ANY profits going forward will make a huge difference.   I say let's sell 40 of the 2024 $5 puts for $2.50 in the LTP and that's a nice $10,000 and worst case is we own 4,000 shares for net $10,000 – nothing wrong with either outcome there! 

From the Morning Report:  

Of course, back in the US of A, it is Facebook's (FB) job to tell you what to think – not the state's!  We will see how much of a bounce we get out of FB this week after the company lost $250Bn (25%) of their market cap on Friday.  FB is left at $645Bn at $237 and they did make $40Bn last year so trading at 16x earnings shouldn't be such a crime, should it?  

If we factor in the fact that AAPL cost them $10Bn with a policy change that FB will likely work around over time, I think we can expect $40Bn will be pretty normal going forward – even accounting for the pandemic easing and people having better things to do with their lives than start at Facebook all day (now we can go to the Metaverse instead!).   I am certainly not saying FB is a bargain here but $200 would be less than $600Bn and even if earnings drop 25% from here – that's still a fair price (20x).  

That means, selling the FB 2024 $200 puts for $30.60 is a very reasonable thing to do as it nets you into FB for $159.40 – 29% below the current price.  Let's assume we REALLY want to own 500 shares of FB for $200.  That would be $100,000 and we'd have to set aside $50,000 of ordinary margin to cover it but we'd collect $13,750 for it so let's sell 5 of the FB 2024 $200 puts for $30.60 in our Long-Term Portfolio and keep an eye on them – perhaps well add a bullish spread later as well.

UL/Rn – Funny, I never think about them but $52 is $132Bn and they make $6.5Bn a year so fairly priced here and the kind of stock that would make a good Butterfly play – as we don't expect them to go up or down more than 20%.

Dividends are 4% while you wait but better as an income-maker.  For the Butterfly Portfolio, let's:

• Sell 10 UL 2024 $45 puts for $4 ($4,000) 
• Buy 20 UL 2024 $50 calls for $6 ($12,000)
• Sell 15 UL 2024 $60 calls for $2.3 ($3,450) 
• Sell 10 UL May $55 calls for $1.10 ($1,100) 

So we're starting out at net $3,450 on the $20,000 spread that's $4,000 in the money to start.  Not very risky selling 10 short calls with 5 open longs and using 102 of 711 days on our first sale.  6 more sales like that would bring in $6,600 and give us a free spread if all goes well.  

Remember, this is how Butterfly plays start out and then we take advantage of swings and re-invest in the position and that's how AAPL became a $460,000 position – it didn't start out that way – we just played it well!  

Remember, in a Butterfly play, our primary goal is to sell quarterly premium.  If the stock is below the strike, the short calls go worthless and if the stock is below the strike + sales price – we take the small profit and sell the next set.  If the stock is up over the strike + sales price – we just roll the losing calls to higher strikes in the next quarter.  

We can always stay out of trouble by buying 1/2 (5) of the short calls back with an 0.50 loss.  Since the other 5 are covered – we will never take too much damage.  

SPWR/Rookie – Let's start with the assumption that buying 1,500 shares for $15.45 is perfectly acceptable:

• Sell 10 SPWR 2024 $22 puts for $9.25 ($9,250)
• Buy 20 SPWR 2024 $13 calls for $7.10 ($14,200) 
• Sell 15 SPWR 2024 $20 calls for $4.60 ($11,500) 

That's a net $6,550 credit on the $14,000 spread so net $20,550 (313%) at $22+ is nice enough but, while you wait, you can sell 5 or 10 short-term calls along the way.  March $19 calls are 0.85 using 45 out of 717 days and selling just 5 of them is $425 so 10 sales like that (450 days) is $4,250 more in your pocket.  So the worst-case scenario is you own 1,000 shares for $15.45 ($15,450) and your upside potential is to sell 10 short calls when it's up in the channel and make maybe $10,000 more along the way – what's not to like?  

Of course, I said the same thing on Nov 3rd on SPWR for our Top Trade Alerts but it is with no shame that I pick them again at half the price!  

At the time I said:

The leg I would add since the MTP is up 107% and has $167,589 out of $207,249 in cash is as follows:

• Sell 10 SPWR 2024 $25 puts for $6.25 ($6,250) 
• Buy 25 SPWR 2024 $30 calls for $12 ($30,000)
• Sell 25 SPWR 2024 $40 calls for $9.25 ($23,125) 

That's net $625 on the $25,000 spread so $24,375 (3,900%) upside potential at $40 and our worst case is owning 1,000 shares at $25.625/share, which is 22% below the current price.  When you REALLY want the worst-case to happen – it's a good spread!  This is too good not to take so let's put it in the Earnings Portfolio!    

Why so aggressive on this one (usually we go a bit more in the money)?  Because I like the no-cost trade ahead of earnings and it will be cheap to roll the long calls lower (the $25s are now $14.50, the $20s are $16.75) so we're just keeping the money on the side for a rainy day.  If SPWR pops, we'll just have to be content making 3,900% in two years.  

So here we are, 3 months later and we still like the $25 target for the puts so the adjustment here would be to close the 2024 $30 calls (now $2.50, $6,250) and the 2024 $40 calls (now $1.50, $3,750) for net $2,500 so, overall, we still have a net $1,875 credit on the overall trade which we can apply to the following:

• Buy 40 SPWR 2024 $13 calls for $7.10 ($28,400) 
• Sell 30 SPWR 2024 $20 calls for $4.60 ($23,000) 

So now we're spending $5,400 less the $1,875 credit is now net $3,125 on the $28,000 spread.  The puts are a bit higher than we'd like but, overall, not a bad adjustment on a stock that dropped 50% since we bought it.  That's because we were initially CONSERVATIVE with our $10 spread and it prevented us from taking too much damage.  The aggressive put sale is coming back to bite us but we still believe in the 2-year target and, if not, RAWHIDE!  The same short call selling strategy as above would apply, we look to sell 10 short puts when we can and 20 if we think SPWR is near the top of the channel.  

Good morning!  

That's right, we were going to remain cautious into Chinese New Year because China may be forestalling a lot of bad economic news ahead of their most vital holiday.   Not going to help with anything.

Behold the awesome rally!

VIX is calming down, that's more important.

Told you so on /NG:

And that's the old contract, Feb hit $4.39 from $3.90 yesterday.  

Dollar is back from vacation:

Oh no, don't list my company in China!  <end sarcastic font>

JinkoSolar pops 8% after listing in Shanghai – China listing worth 4x US listing

JKS +9.67%Now!1 Comment

• With shares down ~30% from recent highs late last year, JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) is up 8% this morning after the company listed its principal operating subsidiary, Jiangxi Jinko, on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• Shares of the subsidiary traded up 111% on the day to close at 10.55 RMB; post IPO Jinko retains 58% of the shares of its subsidiary.
• With 10.0b shares outstanding, and with shares trading at 10.55 RMB, the market cap of the subsidiary is ~105b RMB or ~16b USD — JinkoSolar retaining 58% of the subsidiary owns ~$9.3b of stock in Jiangxi Jinko.
• Jinko's own market cap is ~2.0b, indicating that the Company owns stock in Jiangxi Jinko worth ~4x more than JinkoSolar's current market cap.

This is interesting.  North America is down but Europe blasted higher:

State Street Investor Confidence Index gains 4.5 points in January

PTON -9.16%Jan. 26, 2022 10:03 AM ET

• State Street Investor Confidence Index: 89.3 in January vs. 84.8 in December (revised from 85.6).
• North America ICI to 93.6, down 1.4 points.
• Asian ICI to 97.1, up 1.7 points.
• European ICI to 85.3, up 18.2 points.
• “Investors continued to shy away from risk assets in January as the global ICI continued to hover close to its weakest reading in over a year,” says Rajeev Bhargava, head of Investor Behavior Research, State Street Associates. “Sentiment within the US remained subdued as an increasingly hawkish stance from the Fed, rising Covid infection rates locally due to the Omicron variant, and a disappointing start to earning season likely led to a continued reassessment of allocations away from higher beta assets."

Hard to imagine what would cause Europe to go from 67.1 to 85.3 other than some sort of error.

Still, here's more good data:

New home sales end 2021 with a surge, climbing almost 12%

SEB +0.25%Jan. 26, 2022 10:01 AM ET

• December New Home Sales: +11.9% M/M to 811K vs. 760K expected and 725K prior (revised from 744K).
• Last week, existing home sales in December fell 4.6% M/M, more than expected

Another I told you so (yawn):

Yeti Holdings rallies after Credit Suisse calls it a top consumer products pick

YETI +3.42%Jan. 26, 2022 9:55 AM ET

• Credit Suisse singles out Yeti Holdings (NYSE:YETI) as its new top pick in the consumer products sector. Analyst Kaumil Gajrawala says top-line momentum continues for YETI on further U.S. brand penetration, high repeat rates, a growing international business, consumer mobility and interest in the outdoors and new products. "We think these factors can keep near-term growth at or above company’s algorithm (+15%). Despite inflation, margins are cushioned by a strong direct-to-consumer business," he notes. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on YETI and price target of $100. Following the recent market selling pressure, YETI is trading below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

We only have the short puts though.  My comment last week was:

• YETI – I absolutely want a big position in them but there's no emergency – I'd rather hear earnings first.

So, for the LTP, let's build on our 10 short 2023 $65 puts we sold for $7 (now $10.75) and:

• Sell 10 YETI 2024 $70 puts for $16.50 ($16,500) 
• Buy 20 YETI 2024 $60 calls for $22.50 ($45,000) 
• Sell 20 YETI 2024 $80 calls for $14 ($28,000) 

That's net $500 on the $40,000 spread so we have $39,500 worth of upside potential (7,900%) if YETI can get back to $80 in two years.  Our intention is to take the 2023 puts off the table however, since the 2024 puts are aggressive, so, if YETI fails $60 we will stop those out – probably at $12.50.  

As it stands at $70, YETI has a $6Bn market cap and they are making about $250M so 24x for a rapidly growing company is a bet we'd be happy to press if they go lower.  My thesis on them is they'll do fantastic when people do go back to the office and get jealous of other people's Yeti cups.  

Good morning!  

Remember last week we only bought the 2024 Russell spread SO WE COULD CASH OUT THE 2023 $20s – never forget why you are in a position…  

If we consider that the Russell tends to move in 800-point major cycles, then 800, 1,600 and 2,400 are our major lines.  There was no consolidation at 2,000 so really this is about a run from 1,600 to 2,400 and that 800-point run means 160-point pullbacks to 2,240 (weak retrace) and 2,080 (strong retrace) – so we expect a bit of a bounce around here/  If not, we'll be scrambling to get more aggressive on the TZA hedge as 2,000 won't be any support and then we're looking at the weak bounce of 1,760 and strong bounce at 1,920 as the next proper supports.   

MSFT buying ATVI for $70Bn is amazing.  That's about $90/share – back to the undeserved highs.   Lots of gaming users is a good get for MSTF and ATVI does have a $3Bn/annual recurring revenue stream and, with MSFT trading at 35x – that's worth $105Bn to them.  Of course, I think the 35x is too much but even at a reasonable 25x – this is a good get for MSFT.

That does NOT (Pharm) translate into RBLX, who LOSE $400M/yr being worth anything near their $45Bn price-tag at $80.  No thanks.

SQQQ/Jij – It's a reverse split so the brokers should be reassigning the options.  Yes I would roll when it's worth it but not if it isn't.  Like the 2023 $25 calls are now $12/17, which is crazy wide but better than the 0.47 they were showing pre-market.  Just make some really good offers that favor you and see if anything fills.  

CRSP/Rn – $5.1Bn is probably a great deal for CRSP but, of course, they are still essentially pre-profit and pretty much pre-revenue too.  This is the technology that will give us spider powers though – and who doesn't want those?  They've got lots of cash ($2.5Bn), no debt and game-changing technology so worth a long-term toss and back on sale at $66.6 is definitely some sort of sign….   

What is starting to excite investors at this point is that CRISPR Therapeutics has shown huge progress in the first diseases that it decided to target, which are β-thalassemia and Sickle Cell Anemia. CRISPR Therapeutics now has trial data for twenty-two patients consisting of fifteen β-thalassemia and seven Sickle Cell patients, that shows all of these patients were functionally cured after one treatment with CTX001. CRISPR Therapeutics is expected to launch CTX001 in 2023.

Funny, I thought we had VRTX, who are partners in CTX110 but we don't.  That being the case, let's add CRSP to our Future is Now Portfolio:

• Sell 5 CRSP 2024 $60 put for $21 ($10,500)
• Buy 15 CRSP 2024 $60 calls for $30 ($45,000) 
• Sell 15 CRSP 2024 $100 calls for $20 ($30,000) 

That's net $4,500 on the $60,000 spread that's $12,000 in the money to start with $55,500 (1,233%) upside potential if they can get back over $100.  I also like it as we have room to make money along the way – the April $90 calls are $3.20, for example and we could sell 5 (1/3) for $1,600 and make back 1/3 of what we laid out using 86 of our 731 days but there is no hurry – let's see if they pop and we can do better.  

From this morning's PSW Report:

Moderna, MRNA, has fallen more than 50% below it's peak and yes, it's peak was silly, but $222/share is $90Bn in market cap for a company that will make $11.5Bn in profits this year.  It's being sold off because people think it's a one-trick pony but the Covid vaccine was more of a proof of concept for their process and they now have $22Bn (2 year's profits) to play with in the R&D department:

The thing about the mishandling of the pandemic is that we gave the virus a chance to spead so widely that it is now ENDEMIC, like the flu – and we're never going to be completely rid of it.  That means MRNA will make money for many years to come on covid vaccines so, even if they are a one-trick pony, that trick may last a lifetime.  Still, they have a robust pipeline – as noted in their recent report:

We have been waiting for MRNA to bottom out so we could get back in (we sold our old position near the top) and we discussed making a move in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here).  We sold 5 of the 2024 $200 puts for $25 and they are now $50 so we're down 100% on those but our net entry is $175 and MRNA is at $222 so it's only a loss on paper – we intend to stick it out.  As a full trade for our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP), I would like to add:  

• Sell 10 MRNA 2024 $180 puts for $40 ($40,000) 
• Buy 20 MRNA 2024 $200 calls for $78 ($156,000) 
• Sell 20 MRNA 2024 $250 calls for $59 ($118,000) 

That's a net credit of $2,000 on the $100,000 spread.  There's a heavy obligation there to buy 1,000 shares of MRNA at $180, or net $178 but that's a 20% discount to the current price.  If MRNA fails to hold $200 or our $200 puts (the ones we already sold) go over $60, we will stop them out with a $35,000 loss and stop out of 5 of the short $180s for about $25,000 and then we'd be in for net $58,000 on the $100,000 spread and we'd reposition from there.  Hopefully, it doesn't give us that kind of trouble and we make $102,000 (5,100%) against our cash investment.  

Be aware this is a large position for our $2.4M Portfolio which is VERY well-hedged.  Make sure you are comfortable with the amount you could be assigned and proportion your trade accordingly!  

VIAC/Batman – That's what I was saying – at this price, they are going to get bought.

At $33.08, VIAC's 0.96 dividend is 3.2%, that's not bad.   Still, it's only collecting $2 over 2 years and you can sell the 2024 $30 puts for $5 to net in for $25, which would make the dividend 3.8% so let's consider that $5 to be totally free money, as the worst case would be owning 500 shares for $15,000.  In that case, a spread would be:

• Sell 5 VIAC 2024 $30 puts for $5 ($2,500)
• Buy 10 VIAC 2024 $25 calls for $11.60 ($11,600) 
• Sell 10 VIAC 2024 $30 calls for $8.80 ($8,800)

That's net $300 on the $5,000 spread so, rather than spending $16,500 on 500 shares of VIAC at $33, you obligate yourself to buy 500 shares at $15,300 and at $30, you make $4,700 as opposed to losing $1,500 and collecting $1,000 in dividends. Of course, the real competition would be a stock spread like:

• Buy 500 VIAC at $33 ($16,500)
• Sell 5 VIAC 2024 $30 calls for $8.80 ($4,400)
• Sell 5 VIAC 2024 $30 puts for $5 ($2,500) 

So here you have net $9,600 invested and you'll collect $1,000 in dividends and, if called away at $30 ($15,000), you will make $5,400 more.  So the stock trade is better if you don't mind obligating yourself to DD at $30, which would put you in (less dividends) 1,000 shares at $24,600, which is $8,400 (25%) below the current price – as your worst case.  

So both are good ways to play, more a matter of preference.  For me, in a PM account, I'd rather commit to 2x the options without using the cash.  

BofA's top 10 Q1 ideas gather precision picks for a volatile quarter

ViacomCBS Inc. (VIAC) Presents at UBS 2021 Global TMT Virtual Conference (Transcript)

ViacomCBS: Buy The Streaming, Get The Legacy Business As A Gift

Top Trades for Wed, 01 Dec 2021 12:52 – VIAC, INTC, MO, WBA and IBM (again)

Top Trades for Wed, 13 Oct 2021 09:16 – BYD, GOLD, HPQ, PFE, SPWR & VIAC

Top Trades for Mon, 29 Mar 2021 10:27 – DISCA and VIAC

Top Trades for Thu, 03 Sep 2020 15:01 – VIAC

Top Trades for Thu, 23 Jan 2020 13:36 – VIAC

So that's 2 years of picking VIAC.  They had that big spike early last year and we cashed out and then we started buying again in March – after the drop below $40.  I think $30 is just silly for these guys (obviously).