Posts Tagged ‘200-day moving averages’

Exponentially Curb Your Enthusiasm

Courtesy of Condor Options

Exponentially Curb Your Enthusiasm

Investors and the financial media have been excited of late about the S&P 500 crossing above its 200-day moving average:

Harris Private Bank and Morgan Asset Management say the advance may indicate the bear market in U.S. equities that began in October 2007 is over, heralding more gains after a three- month, 39 percent increase. Analysts who base forecasts on price charts consider crossing above a moving average bullish because it shows stocks are rising faster than the long-term trend.

“That’s proven to be a fantastic signal,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris, which oversees $60 billion. “A lot of investors will view it as a bullish signal and will likely use that as a rationale to add exposure to the S&P 500.” [Bloomberg]

As I’ve discussed before (”Moving Averages and Human Risk“), plain vanilla moving average signals aren’t really that special: anything that keeps us from being long the market during its most volatile periods is likely to improve risk-adjusted returns, but we also want signals that have a genuine performance-boosting edge.  Neither a 200-day simple moving average nor the exponential variation I’ll address below outperform enough to warrant consideration as independent indicators.  But the exponential calculation certainly seems preferable, and suggests that, for the moment, investors would be better served to remain cautious.

The three backtested equity curves below display 1) a buy-and-hold portfolio tracking the S&P 500 (blue), 2) a long-only portfolio using the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as a timing signal (red), and 3) a long-only portfolio using the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a timing signal (orange).*  Transaction costs are not included, nor are returns on cash, and returns are logarithmically scaled.

smavsema

The portfolio using an EMA timing signal is about 16% higher at the moment than the portfolio following the SMA. The rather intuitive advantage provided by an exponential moving average is that it is more responsive to new information. When prices begin rising in the midst of a downtrend, the EMA rises in response more quickly than its simpler cousin; conversely, a selloff amidst a bullish trend will push the average lower more quickly.  In both cases, “false positives” are less likely: the emphasis applied to more recent prices forces the market to work harder to prove a trend reversal.

2009-06-04-sp500
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Phil's Favorites

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, 'vaccine nationalism' threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

 

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, ‘vaccine nationalism’ threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

Are we really all in this together? ‘Vaccine nationalism’ must be addressed to ensure equitable distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine. (Pixabay)

Courtesy of Joel Lexchin, University of Toronto

At the end of June, the United States government announced that it had ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, 'vaccine nationalism' threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

 

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, ‘vaccine nationalism’ threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

Are we really all in this together? ‘Vaccine nationalism’ must be addressed to ensure equitable distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine. (Pixabay)

Courtesy of Joel Lexchin, University of Toronto

At the end of June, the United States government announced that it had ...



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Zero Hedge

Prins: "We're Living In A Permanent Distortion"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Three time best-selling book author Nomi Prins says long before the Covid 19 crisis, the global economy was faltering big time. The Fed stepped in with the start of massive money printing in late 2019 to save the day. 

Prins explains, “We were already in crisis mode as I mentioned at the end of my last book going into 2019."

"What did we see at the end of 2019?  We saw this pivot, and I call it phase two. . ...



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ValueWalk

Facebook Stock Crashes Due To Ad Boycott - Key Investing Points

By Sven Carlin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) stock crashed 8.32% on Friday because of the announced ad boycott by many companies like Unilever, Coca Cola, recently Starbucks on Sunday that might push the stock down even more during this week.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

However, investing is about knowing how to differentiate between the noise and fundamentals and we discuss Facebook's recent news and compare it to FB fundamentals.

  • Facebook stock crash
  • Ad boycott
  • Facebook stock volatility
  • Facebook's fundamentals
  • Be sure of volatility
  • My po...


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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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