Posts Tagged ‘200-day moving averages’

Exponentially Curb Your Enthusiasm

Courtesy of Condor Options

Exponentially Curb Your Enthusiasm

Investors and the financial media have been excited of late about the S&P 500 crossing above its 200-day moving average:

Harris Private Bank and Morgan Asset Management say the advance may indicate the bear market in U.S. equities that began in October 2007 is over, heralding more gains after a three- month, 39 percent increase. Analysts who base forecasts on price charts consider crossing above a moving average bullish because it shows stocks are rising faster than the long-term trend.

“That’s proven to be a fantastic signal,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Harris, which oversees $60 billion. “A lot of investors will view it as a bullish signal and will likely use that as a rationale to add exposure to the S&P 500.” [Bloomberg]

As I’ve discussed before (”Moving Averages and Human Risk“), plain vanilla moving average signals aren’t really that special: anything that keeps us from being long the market during its most volatile periods is likely to improve risk-adjusted returns, but we also want signals that have a genuine performance-boosting edge.  Neither a 200-day simple moving average nor the exponential variation I’ll address below outperform enough to warrant consideration as independent indicators.  But the exponential calculation certainly seems preferable, and suggests that, for the moment, investors would be better served to remain cautious.

The three backtested equity curves below display 1) a buy-and-hold portfolio tracking the S&P 500 (blue), 2) a long-only portfolio using the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as a timing signal (red), and 3) a long-only portfolio using the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a timing signal (orange).*  Transaction costs are not included, nor are returns on cash, and returns are logarithmically scaled.

smavsema

The portfolio using an EMA timing signal is about 16% higher at the moment than the portfolio following the SMA. The rather intuitive advantage provided by an exponential moving average is that it is more responsive to new information. When prices begin rising in the midst of a downtrend, the EMA rises in response more quickly than its simpler cousin; conversely, a selloff amidst a bullish trend will push the average lower more quickly.  In both cases, “false positives” are less likely: the emphasis applied to more recent prices forces the market to work harder to prove a trend reversal.

2009-06-04-sp500
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Leader Facing Important Long-Term Breakout Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Since the 2009 lows, Semiconductors have been taken a leadership role as they have far outpaced the gains of the S&P 500.

Gains since the 2009 lows; SOXX Index = +821% S&P 500 = +273%.

The SOXX index has spent the majority of the past 10-years inside of rising channel (1), which first started at the  2009 lows.

As the SOXX index is testing the top of this 10-year rising channel, it is also testing its Fibonacci 423% extension level of its 2001 highs and 2009 lows at (2).

This leading index would send a positive message t...



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Zero Hedge

Global Stocks Slide After Apple Guidance Cut Is "Wake Up Call" To Zombified Investors

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Two weeks ago, when looking at the supply-chain crippling consequences of the Coronavirus epidemic, we asked "Is Tech About To Suffer A "Dot Com" Bubble Collapse?" and concluded that "It's now all in China's hands" noting that "...while the market leaders did not disappoint in the last quarter of 2019 when stocks exploded higher with the blessing of the Fed's QE4, what abou...



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Phil's Favorites

Bloomberg Has Built a Star Wars Machine to Try to Steal the Democratic Nomination

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Michael Bloomberg

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is used to getting his way. After serving two terms as New York City’s Mayor as a Republican, he used his own vast stash of cash to repeal term limits and give himself another four-year term, running as an Independent. Now he has promised to do the unprecedented: spend $1 billion of his own money to install himself as President of the United States, running on the Democratic ticket.

Bloomberg’s campaign increasingly resembles an octopus with money gushing out of its tentacles into anything and everything that will inject Mic...



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Insider Scoop

AMX Buys Fellow Alabama Company Powell, Adds Reefer Capacity

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alabama Motor Express will push deeper into the refrigerated business with purchase of Powell Transport Solutions.

The acquisition, announced earlier this week, will bring 35 refrigerated trailers to AMX, the company said in a statement. A spokeswoman for AMX, in response to questions submitted by FreightWaves, said the company's business is currently about 10% refrigerated. The AMX fleet before the acquisition was 210 trailers, she said.

Powell's business is 100% refrigerated, according to the...



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Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



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Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



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The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unloc...



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ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) Outperforms Large-Cap Benchmarks

While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



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Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned wi...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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