Posts Tagged ‘35% tariffs on Chinese tires’

China’s retail sales growth figures are not consumption growth figures

Michael Pettis discusses China’s retail sales numbers (not a proxy for consumption) and the mounting trade tensions between China and the U.S. – Ilene

China’s retail sales growth figures are not consumption growth figures

china tradeCourtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets

A lot of people, via emails, letters and phone calls, have been asking me how I can be so pessimist about consumption growth in China given the spectacular consumption growth figures coming out of China – 15.4% year to date.  An editor who asked me for a piece, after reading it also wondered if my view – that China’s GDP growth would be constrained by its consumption growth – was such a worrying thing given China’s 15% growth rate of consumption. 

The problem is that these are not consumption growth figures.  They are retail sales figures.  Fair enough, you might think, but the retail sales growth rate should still be a reasonable proxy for consumption growth.  It isn’t.  Among lots of other noise retail sales figures include government purchases and shipments to retailers even before these shipments are sold to consumers.  That makes it a very bad proxy for consumption.

Take a look why.  I took the following chart from the September 14 issue of Jim Walker’s excellent Asianomics report.  This shows retail sales for the past decade.  As you can see, first of all, for all the excitement there has not been much of a surge in retail sales.  Secondly, retail sales have been supposedly growing between 13% and 24% for the past six years, which even on an inflation-adjusted basis (I assume it is inflation that explains the late 2007 and early 2008 surge) significantly exceeds GDP growth.  But if retail sales were really a decent proxy for consumption growth, it would be hard to tell from this graph that consumption has plunged as a share of GDP.

China retail sales 

But it has.  Consumption has been growing over the past several years by about 8-9% a year, while GDP has been hurtling forward by 10-12% a year and, not surprisingly, this implies arithmetically that consumption is declining as a share of GDP.

This is supposed to be a short entry, but before closing I should discuss the recent 35% tariffs on Chinese tires imposed by the Obama administration, especially since that seems to have been one of the hottest topics of conversation today. 


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

ValueWalk

Microsoft And Mastercard Exhibit Bearish Post-Earnings Behavior

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on the bearish post-earnings behavior of Microsoft and Mastercard, and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The major indices are all trading significantly lower at midday following another volatile and bearish morning session on Wall Street, with the deteriorating COVID picture weighing on global risk assets. European stocks, currencies, and crude oil all fell sharply overnight amid fears of another lockdown period in Europe, and the negative sentiment affected U.S. inde...



more from ValueWalk

Phil's Favorites

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

 

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

"These rallies offer a boost to the president's ego but risk leaving behind a trail of sickness and increased strain on local public health departments and medical systems."

By Kenny Stancil, Common Dreams

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at Altoona-Blair County Airport in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania on October 26, 2020. (Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Ha...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

 

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

"These rallies offer a boost to the president's ego but risk leaving behind a trail of sickness and increased strain on local public health departments and medical systems."

By Kenny Stancil, Common Dreams

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at Altoona-Blair County Airport in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania on October 26, 2020. (Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Ha...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Kimble Charting Solutions

Are the U.S. Stock Market Indices Facing Double Top Deja Vu?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Stock market volatility has turned higher as the month of October has wore on. And now that we are just one week away from the elections, it appears that investors are showing their uncertainty through the price action on the major U.S. stock market indices.

In today’s chart 2-pack, we look at “weekly” charts of the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Index. Though not the same, they have a similar developing pattern. Perhaps one that leads to a 15%+ decline back in 2018.

Could History Be Repeating Itself?

Just as we saw in 2018, momentum is forming a bearish divergence this year at (1). Tha...



more from Kimble C.S.

Zero Hedge

As "Blue-Wave"-Mania Melts Down, "Large Lot" Traders Are Leaving The Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Are retail bagholders about to get "muppet"-ed again?

Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns that the “election narrative overshoots” continue to swing wildly on the imminent event-risk approach - and partially as a function of horrific market illiquidity, with banks / dealers on facilitation lockdown, as per Risk Management “VaR shock” muscle-memory from 4 yrs ago:

First, it was...



more from Tyler

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 18 May 2020, 03:35:21 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Ooh so pretty, so pretty, ooh so!



Date Found: Thursday, 21 May 2020, 01:03:17 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Charlie Lee: All Things Litecoin (#MimbleWimble, ...



more from Chart School

Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



more from Politics

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.