Posts Tagged ‘asset values’

RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK

The Pragmatic Capitalist discusses RISKS TO THE OUTLOOK.  In addtition to listing David Rosenberg’s concerns, Pragcap adds one of his own — a double dip in housing. – Ilene 

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Lightning striking miniature house

David Rosenberg provided a nice list of risk in this morning’s client letter.  The one major risk that Rosenberg and the market is largely overlooking at this juncture is the housing double dip. This has the potential to be THE most important story of 2011.  As I’ve previously explained, declining asset values are highly destructive during a balance sheet recession.  If the housing double dip surprises to the downside the problems that we’ve swept under the rug will quickly reemerge and this time there won’t be any political will for government intervention.

I still believe we are mired in a balance sheet recession that will result in below trend growth, deflationary risks and leaves us extremely vulnerable to exogenous risks that could exacerbate the current malaise. Rosenberg’s excellent list follows:

1.  China is getting more active in its policy tightening moves as inflation pressures intensify. It’s not just food but wages too. Headline inflation, at 4.4%, is at a 25-month high. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) just hiked banking sector reserve ratios by 50 basis points to 18.5% — the second such increase in the past two weeks and the fifth for the year. This could well keep commodity prices under wraps over the near-term.

2.  European debt concerns will not be fully alleviated just because a rescue plan has been cobbled together for Ireland as it deals with its banking crisis. The focus will now likely shift to other basket cases such as Portugal and Spain. Greece has a two-year lifeline before it defaults. This saga is going to continue for some time yet.

3. Massive tightening in U.S. fiscal policy coming via spending cuts and tax hikes. This is the part of the macro forecast that is not given enough attention. See States Raise Payroll Taxes to Repay Loans on page A5 of the weekend WSJ.

4. Gasoline prices are about six cents shy of re-testing the $3-a-gallon threshold for the first time since mid October 2008. On a national average basis, prices at the pump are up 26 cents from a year ago — effectively draining about $25 billion out of household cash flow. Tack on the coming


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

ValueWalk

Bitcoin Investors Buys The Dip But The Dip Kept On Dipping

By Eloise Williams. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In the world of cryptocurrency it is exciting and challenging all at the same time. Investors are realizing that this currency could be the way of the future. But in the recent weeks Bitcoin has dropped a significant amount.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disclaimer: This is a satirical article.

Investors Dump Money In Bitcoin

Some investors frantically sol...



more from ValueWalk

Phil's Favorites

Indiscriminate selling

 

Indiscriminate selling

Courtesy of 

There are a few green stocks in the market today, and by “a few”, I mean you can count them on two hands and still have a few fingers left over. To gag yourself with. Those green stocks are things like Kohl’s (a special situation takeover story) and then it’s like grocery stores and shoe cobblers. That’s really it. Tesla is being absolutely mangled, which tells you which type of mutual funds and ETFs are being redeemed (liquidated?) today.

I have some buy limit orders in at completely out...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Asian EM Stocks Clubbed Into Corrections As Monetary Tightening Takes Away Punch Bowl

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Major equity indexes in Asia are approaching or have already entered corrections as central banks (ex-China) prepare to hike this year. 

On Tuesday, Andrew Tilton, the chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs, told clients that Asian central banks (ex-China) would join the so-called "normalization train" with other monetary authorities and begin to hike interest rates in the second half of the year. 

Tilton points out that emerging market policy tightening is well underway. This means EM assets will face a challenging macro backdrop as elevated valuation...



more from Tyler

Biotech/COVID-19

How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases

 

How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases

Nucleic acid vaccines use mRNA to give cells instructions on how to produce a desired protein. Libre de Droit/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Deborah Fuller, University of Washington

The two most successful coronavirus vaccines developed in the U.S. – the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines – are both mRNA vaccines. The idea of using genetic material to produce an immune response has opened up a world of research ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Politics

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine - and why the US is involved

 

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine – and why the US is involved

Courtesy of Tatsiana Kulakevich, University of South Florida

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 19, 2022, that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine, and cautioned Russian president Vladimir Putin that he “will regret having done it,” following months of building tension.

Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine over the past several months.

In mid-January, Russia began moving ...



more from Politics

Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Erases 7 months of Gains With Sharp Decline! Just Getting Started???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech wreck has been fast and furious. And considering that the stock market correction is still relatively new, we really don’t know if it will end soon or carry on for weeks/months.

Today’s chart is “linear” and takes a long-term “monthly” view. As you can see, the Nasdaq Composite Index registered a bearish monthly reversal at the top of the channel at (1).

And in the first 21-days of the year, this broad index of technology stocks has wiped out the prior 7 months of gains!...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.