Posts Tagged ‘bearish market’

The Stock Market’s Scary Day and Almost Magical Close

The Stock Market’s Scary Day and Almost Magical Close

Courtesy of John Nyaradi

Midweek commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

No doubt today was scary as the markets opened down sharply and traded mostly lower all day in one of the most volatile of recent sessions.  The reason given for the sell off was an economic slowdown in China and worse than expected consumer sentiment.

So it was a scary drop but the most interesting part of the day came at the close when the S&P 500 almost magically closed above the all important 1040 level.  For technical traders, 1040 is something of a magical number because it represents significant support and a level that is now being tested for the fourth time this year.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart we can see how 1040 on the S&P represents the February, flash crash and June lows and so this is the fourth retest of that all important level.  Everyone “knows” that if the index breaks decisively through this level that lower prices are likely ahead and so one can only marvel at how, after trading as low as 1035 in the late going, the index made a last minute move back above this all important psychological level. 

Also on the top display, you’ll notice that RSI is approaching “30” which is widely considered to be “oversold” and the technical sentiment measurements I follow point to extreme pessimism (after today’s action, who isn’t pessimistic?) which as a contrarian indicator could indicate higher prices ahead for the short term. 

So we stand at a most interesting crossroads.  From here, if the market recovers and holds the 1040 lows, it’s quite likely we could see a rebound rally as we’ve seen three times so far at this level this year.  A break below could lead to further deterioration and significantly lower prices ahead. 

I don’t have a crystal ball, just as no one does, and I can’t foretell the future, but we can make an estimation of probabilities; if 1040 on the S&P holds, the most likely probability based on technical indicators is for higher prices over the short term.     

There’s the bearish side of the market and the bullish side of the market, but as the old saying goes, “the only side that matters is the right side.” 

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John’s disclosure: EWW,TUR, FXI, IYR, SPY Call Option 


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An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

 

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

A girl wearing a mask walks down a street in the Corona neighborhood of Queens on April 14, 2020 in New York City. Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ryan Malosh, University of Michigan

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has new guidance clarifying what exactly “close cont...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

 

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

A girl wearing a mask walks down a street in the Corona neighborhood of Queens on April 14, 2020 in New York City. Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ryan Malosh, University of Michigan

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has new guidance clarifying what exactly “close cont...



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Zero Hedge

76% of US CEOs Will Slash Office Space As Remote Work Dominates 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The virus pandemic has accelerated more flexible work options for employees, with many companies instructing employees to work remotely through 2021, or in some cases, permanently. As a result, according to a new survey, CEOs have said they will slash office space, a move that could ripple through commercial real estate markets, all the way down into local economies. 

In collaboration with Deloitte, Fortune surveyed 171 CEOs between Sept. 23 to 30, found 76% of respondents are expected to reduce office space size in the near...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks: Pelosi, Mnuchin point fingers as talks stall

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The last hope of a stimulus deal hinged on negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Now Pelosi and Mnuchin have stopped negotiating on the coronavirus stimulus package and checks and started blaming each other for the lack of a deal.

Coronavirus stimulus checks: Pelosi and Trump- Mnuchin play blame game

Until Thursday, both Pelosi and Mnuchin were optimistic on reaching an agreement this week. However, the two started blaming each other on Friday for the impasse, saying a deal could be reached if the other side compromised.

Pelosi ...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper/Gold Indicator Breaking Out Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Doc Copper/Gold ratio broke above a 2-year falling channel back in 2016 at (1). Following this breakout, it rallied for the next year. During that year, Copper related assets did very well!

The ratio peaked in the summer of 2018 and created a series of lower highs over the past two years.

The strength of late has the ratio attempting to break above dual resistance at (2).

If the ratio continues to push higher and succeeds in breaking out, Copper, Basic Materials (XLB), and ...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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