Posts Tagged ‘bearishness’

THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Investigating the

  • Just a few brief comments on the market at the current levels. I was relatively optimistic about the equity markets coming into the beginning of the year.  The themes that had dominated much of 2009 (better than expected earnings, accommodative Fed, continuing stimulus, etc) appeared to be largely intact.   To my surprise, the rally ran a bit farther than I expected, but Greece and the downturn in China were game changers in my opinion.  I was a few weeks early to lay my short positions, but the market ultimately came around to my thinking (better to be lucky than good).  Where are we now?  In my opinion, we have a global economy that ispre-Greece and a global economy that is post-Greece.  The dominoes appear to be lining up in an eerie fashion at this point in time – there are now dozens of negative catalysts in the coming 12 months (which I will detail in a soon to be released report).  Although the markets are once again oversold and at risk of a bounce the fundamentals are quickly deteriorating and my expectation of a weak second half appears to be right on cue.  I would continue to approach this market with a great deal of caution despite the current oversold conditions.
  • What do the Germans know? This short selling ban is very desperate looking.  I hate to speculate, but my gut tells me that they are beginning to realize how bad the situation is over there.  They now understand that the problems in the Euro cannot be solved through intra-country debt issuance and bailouts.  The short ban looks like one more act of desperation from a group of nations that have severely underestimated the problems they confront.  Unfortunately, I still don’t think they’ve realized that this is a currency crisis and not a solvency crisis.  That means they’ll continue to kick the can down the road and markets will battle with the turbulence.  This truly does have a very Bear Stearns feel to it.
  • Will we scare ourselves into a double dip or even a second great depression? Everyone and their mother appears to be in the same camp regarding all the very scary “money printing”.  I’ve never in my life heard the drumbeat so loud for fiscal austerity.  In fact,


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Zero Hedge

Greenlight: "In Q4, Our Longs Went Up Less Than The Market And Our Shorts Went Up More"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge. View original post here.

2019 was a very strange year for the market, one in which stocks were up almost 30% despite no earnings growth and only multiple expansion, and yet not a single popular strategy worked. As a result, it was also an extremely painful year for hedge funds who were up for the year, but once again failed to catch up to the risk-free benchmark, the S&P500, and in fact, this was the 10th consecutive year in which active management underperformed the cheapest possible market investment, the S&P500 itself (and explains why there was a record-matching 8 consecutive months of hedge fund outflows in ...



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Phil's Favorites

Oil Is The Only Way Back Up For Venezuela

Courtesy of OilPrice.com, Editorial Dept.

There’s only one path to rebuilding Venezuela, and it’s paved with oil. For the time being, that path leads nowhere.

The key to controlling everything now lies with the National Assembly, the only body with the power to hand out oil licenses—and Maduro’s recent scheme to retake control of the country’s oil may just have been foiled by more Trump sanctions. 

Venezuela is the 12th largest oil producer in the world and home to the world’s largest oil reserves--all of which is irrelevant as long as it remains in the throes of a deep economic and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For January 21, 2020

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.29 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion.
  • TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.09 per share on revenue of $839.96 million.
  • Signature Bank (NASDAQ: ...


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The Technical Traders

Q4 Earnings Setup The Rally To The Peak

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”.  We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility. 

As you’ll see from these charts, below, we are not dismissing this current upside rally and the potential that it could last for many weeks or months longer – we’re just warning our followers and clients that we believe a very volatile period or price rotation is setting up within the next 10 to 25+ days as prices reach the historical upper boundary. ...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Chart School

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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