Posts Tagged ‘bubble valuations’

Housing Headwinds and Baby Boom Demographics

Housing Headwinds and Baby Boom Demographics

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds 

Bubble valuations and Baby Boom demographics both suggest housing prices have a long way to fall. 

Combine home prices that are still at bubble heights with the demographics of aging baby Boomers dumping McMansions and you get massively rising supply overwhelming declining demand.

A recent story in the S.F. Chronicle Real Estate section neatly illustrates the trajectory of tens of millions of Baby Boomer home buyers and owners: Home Appreciation: Concord home steady, secure during ‘roller coaster’

The couple bought their first home in a modest suburb in the late 1970s for an undisclosed price, then bought a home in another suburb in 1980 for $96,000. In 1987 they sold that residence for $110,000 and bought another one for $135,000. They then sold that house for $400,000 in 2002 and bought their current home for a price "in the $600,000s" (realtor-speak for about $650,000). After peaking in value at the bubble top in 2005-06 at around $1,000,000, the home is now on the market for $637,000 ($600,000 + 6% commission).

To peek under the hood of the larger trends, I’ve laid out each buy/sell along with its inflation adjusted value in current dollars. As always, I use the BLS inflation calculator; though it reflects the flaws of the CPI calculation methodology, it is consistent.

1980 purchase: $96,000
in 2010 dollars: $252,000

1987 sale: $110,000
in 2010 dollars: $210,000

1987 purchase: $135,000
in 2010 dollars: $257,000

2002 sale: $400,000
in 2010 dollars: $482,000

2002 purchase: $650,000
in 2010 dollars: $783,000

2010 sale: (projected) $637,000

These inflation-adjusted "real" numbers are insightfully different from the nominal prices.

To place the 1980 valuations in proper context, we need to recall that the U.S. was suffering from sky-high inflation in the late 70s and extremely high rates of new household formation as the 78 millon Baby Boomers went out and bought houses. Those two factors created a housing boom, both in valuations and homes built.

It took $1.36 in 1980 to buy what $1 had bought a mere three years before in 1977. As people fled the stock market for tangible assets and Boomers started families, real estate soared (as did gold). While I don’t have the numbers for that house bought for $96,000 in 1980, anecdotally I can assure you that homes…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Largest Bearish Reversal In 20-Years Sends Caution Message To Stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Economically sensitive stocks have frequently sent an important message to the S&P 500. Is it possible that the largest bearish reversal pattern in 20-years could be sending an important message?

This chart looks at U.S. Steel (X) on a monthly basis over the past 20-years. Since the 2008 highs, “X” has created a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a falling channel (2). Over the past 13-years, line (1) has come into play as support and resistance numerous times.

“X” created the largest bullish reversal pattern in 20-years in...



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Zero Hedge

Netherlands Hit With Third Night Of Anti-Curfew Riots 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Dutch riots unfolded for the third consecutive night as anti-lockdown protesters defied the country's new curfew rules to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, according to RT News

At least 150 people were arrested Monday night in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, where stores were looted and vandalized. 

BLM burned down dozens of American cities & murdered multiple people to potentially get a black person printed on a piece of paper

Biden ...



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Phil's Favorites

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

 

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

Health care workers and patients in the temporary outside area Steve Biko Academic Hospital created to screen and treat suspected Covid-19 cases in Pretoria. Alet Pretorius/Gallo Images via Getty Images

Courtesy of Willem Hanekom, Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) and Tulio de Oliveira, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Late last year the ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

 

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

Health care workers and patients in the temporary outside area Steve Biko Academic Hospital created to screen and treat suspected Covid-19 cases in Pretoria. Alet Pretorius/Gallo Images via Getty Images

Courtesy of Willem Hanekom, Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) and Tulio de Oliveira, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Late last year the ...



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ValueWalk

What to Make of GameStop Corp (GME)'s Parabolic Move

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Berna Barshay’s email to investors discussing what to make of GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME)’s parabolic move.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

GameStop Corp (GME) Stock Up 145%

At its intraday high this morning, shares of video-game retailer GameStop (GME) were up 145%...

When trading started to level out earlier this afternoon at around $80, the stock had retraced much of its big move to $159 and was back to up "just" 23%, but today's gain comes on top of a 51% jump on Fr...



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Digital Currencies

Ethereum Surges To New Record High As DeFi Boom Re-Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Coins that power decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are soaring recently as bitcoin treads water.

While bitcoin grabbed all the headlines early on in the year, it is the rest of the crypto space that is stealing its thunder most recently as Ethereum, the backbone of the smart contracts that define much of the DeFi space, has drastically outperformed...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest for ETH relative to BTC since

...

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Politics

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

 

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

Far-right groups like the Proud Boys, seen here marching in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 12, are increasingly organizing their activities on messaging services like Telegram. Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

Courtesy of Kevin GrishamCalifornia State University San Bernardino

Right-wing extremists called for open revolt against the U.S. government ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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