Posts Tagged ‘central bank reserves’

What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

GREAT WALL OF CHINA BADALING BEIJING CHINA

Courtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets 

It is a real toss-up as to which generates more bizarre comment in the international press: Beijing’s long-feared dumping of US Treasuries, or the use and value of the PBoC’s central bank reserves.  The revelation last week that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations fell in December by $34.2 billion, to $755.4 billion, generated a frisson of fear and excitement, leading one prominent newspaper to worry that “If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.”

And shouldn’t they get twitchy?  After all this reduction in Chinese holdings of Treasury bonds comes from the USG’s TIC data, so it must be true that China is dumping dollars, right?

No need to twitch, it means no such thing.  First of all, the data from which this was derived indicates national ownership of USG bonds only to the extent that foreigners are directly registered holders.  It says nothing about what happened to the large amount of bonds held by the PBoC and other Chinese investors indirectly or in street names. Those could have easily gone up by more than the reduction in bonds directly held by Chinese investors in their own name.  If the PBoC had let maturing Treasury bonds get repaid, for example, and reinvested the proceeds into the USG bond market through another account, or in a street name, its total holdings would have actually increased even though its registered holdings would have declined.

More importantly, the TIC numbers completely fail to disclose whether China’s reduced holding of USG bonds was matched by increased holding of other dollar assets, thereby increasing the pool of capital available to fund USG bonds by an amount equal to its reduced Treasury holdings.  If Chinese investors decide to take on more risk, for example, they might sell USG bonds and use the proceeds to buy corporate bonds.  Of course the seller of these corporate bonds will then have cash, which must be put to work, and ultimately this ends up back in the USG bond market.

China did not reduce its dollar holdings

So was China a net seller of dollar assets in December?  Almost certainly not.  Just look at the PBoC balance sheet.  PBoC reserves rose in December by


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Phil's Favorites

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn't an accident - it's part of Putin's plan to destabilize Europe

 

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn’t an accident – it’s part of Putin’s plan to destabilize Europe

Ukrainians fleeing the war walk toward a train in Krakow to bring them to Berlin on March 15, 2022. Omar Marques/Getty Images

Courtesy of Mark A. Grey, University of Northern Iowa

More than 6.3 million Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia first invaded in late February 2022.

The European Union h...



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Politics

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn't an accident - it's part of Putin's plan to destabilize Europe

 

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn’t an accident – it’s part of Putin’s plan to destabilize Europe

Ukrainians fleeing the war walk toward a train in Krakow to bring them to Berlin on March 15, 2022. Omar Marques/Getty Images

Courtesy of Mark A. Grey, University of Northern Iowa

More than 6.3 million Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia first invaded in late February 2022.

The European Union h...



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Zero Hedge

Cattle Supply And Demand Issues For 2022

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

By FarmBureau Market Intel

Introduction

At first glance, 2022 cattle prices are higher than 2021. At $140, slaughter steer prices are 17.5% above 2021 prices, but even with higher prices, farmers and ranchers will travel a rocky road to profitability, paved with inflation and higher input costs in 2022. This Market Intel addresses the USDA’s Cattle on Feed report released on Friday, May 20, 2022, the forces driving cattle prices higher and how inflation and input costs will affect the bottom line for ca...



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ValueWalk

The Snap Shock, Oil Falls On Growth Fears And UK Borrowing Drops

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

“Investors are getting set for another twist on the rollercoaster with Monday’s gains set to be largely erased after Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) interrupted the brief rally with a very downbeat snapshot. The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have opened 0.9% lower while in Japan the Nikkei slid by 1% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropped by 2%.

Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Snap Shock

The owner of Snapchat notched up fresh worries after the bell on Wall Street by lowering its revenue an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Can Treasury Bonds (TLT) Reverse Higher From Historic Oversold Level?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been an ugly couple of year for US Treasury Bonds. T-bond prices have dropped sharply as yields have risen.

This has been an added pressure on retirement portfolios as treasury bonds are no longer trading like a conservative asset.

Time for a bounce in T-bonds?

Today, we take a look at the long-term “monthly” chart of the 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

As you can see, 2 years ago bonds peaked and formed a historic bearish reversal pattern at the highest momentum reading ever.

...

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Chart School

Powell has a debt problem

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The last time the US entertained debt this high (relative to GDP) was post World War 2.


The prior US high debt years were between 1936 and 1954, back then the public understood why the high debt existed (WW2) and why the public had to suffer high inflation to allow deflation of the debt to a manageable level. This question was not as political as it is today.   


Current US debt levels are the result of 'end of empire' spending, simply spending on steroids beyond one means. The FED needs inflation for the same reason as the post WW2 period to deflate away the debt.


The current political talk of 'fight inflation' will be short lived and the FED will be forced to accept higher inflation levels over the 2% (say b...

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Biotech/COVID-19

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what's known about this smallpox cousin

 

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what’s known about this smallpox cousin

Monkeypox causes lesions that resemble pus-filled blisters, which eventually scab over. CDC/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University

On May 18, 2022, Massachusetts health officials and the Centers for Disease Control ...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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