Posts Tagged ‘central bank reserves’

What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

GREAT WALL OF CHINA BADALING BEIJING CHINA

Courtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets 

It is a real toss-up as to which generates more bizarre comment in the international press: Beijing’s long-feared dumping of US Treasuries, or the use and value of the PBoC’s central bank reserves.  The revelation last week that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations fell in December by $34.2 billion, to $755.4 billion, generated a frisson of fear and excitement, leading one prominent newspaper to worry that “If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds.”

And shouldn’t they get twitchy?  After all this reduction in Chinese holdings of Treasury bonds comes from the USG’s TIC data, so it must be true that China is dumping dollars, right?

No need to twitch, it means no such thing.  First of all, the data from which this was derived indicates national ownership of USG bonds only to the extent that foreigners are directly registered holders.  It says nothing about what happened to the large amount of bonds held by the PBoC and other Chinese investors indirectly or in street names. Those could have easily gone up by more than the reduction in bonds directly held by Chinese investors in their own name.  If the PBoC had let maturing Treasury bonds get repaid, for example, and reinvested the proceeds into the USG bond market through another account, or in a street name, its total holdings would have actually increased even though its registered holdings would have declined.

More importantly, the TIC numbers completely fail to disclose whether China’s reduced holding of USG bonds was matched by increased holding of other dollar assets, thereby increasing the pool of capital available to fund USG bonds by an amount equal to its reduced Treasury holdings.  If Chinese investors decide to take on more risk, for example, they might sell USG bonds and use the proceeds to buy corporate bonds.  Of course the seller of these corporate bonds will then have cash, which must be put to work, and ultimately this ends up back in the USG bond market.

China did not reduce its dollar holdings

So was China a net seller of dollar assets in December?  Almost certainly not.  Just look at the PBoC balance sheet.  PBoC reserves rose in December by


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Consumer Bureau To Decide Who Owns Your Financial Data

 

Consumer Bureau To Decide Who Owns Your Financial Data

What Should Banks, Fintechs Be Allowed to Do With All that They Know About You?

Courtesy of Jillian S. Ambroz, DCReport

A federal agency is gearing up to make wide-ranging policy changes on consumers’ access to their financial data.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is looking to implement the area of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act pertaining to a consumer’s rights to his or her own financial data. It is detailed in section 1033.

The agency has been ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Cali Mansion Once Listed For $100 Million Sells For "Only" $48.4 Million

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Today in "a look into a luxury real estate market you will never likely participate in" news...

A famous L.A. mansion called "Opus" that was once listed for $100 million and has been on the market for over three years has finally sold - at a more than 50% haircut.

The 20,000 square foot mansion sold for $48.4 million this week, furniture included, according to Bloomberg. It is also the lates...



more from Tyler

Politics

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

 

Mythmakers: The Men Who Created Donald J. Trump

Mark Burnett, Jeff Zucker, and the Trustwashing of a Fake President

Courtesy of Greg Olear, Prevail, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

more from Politics

ValueWalk

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re And Icahn's Icahn Enterprises

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

During their recent episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discussed Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital Re (NASDAQ:GLRE) and Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises LP (NASDAQ:IEP). Here’s an excerpt from the episode:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Re And Icahn's Icahn Enterprises

Tobias: Einhorn genius for a decade. The GOAT for a decade, a GOAT for the last decade. I think it could be back to the GOAT stage, possibly for the...



more from ValueWalk

Biotech/COVID-19

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

 

Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than Pfizer's and Moderna's and doesn't require supercold temperature

Now there is a third possible vaccine for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sanjay Mishra, Vanderbilt University

The biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has released data on what is now the third promising vaccine candidate against COVID-19 – and it has several advantages over those of its competitors, ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 12 June 2020, 08:06:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Interesting (2)



Date Found: Saturday, 13 June 2020, 12:27:02 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Recession Forecasts Time Frame



Date Found: Monday, 15 June 2020, 11:07:52 PM

...

more from Chart School

Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.