Posts Tagged ‘chart patterns’

5 Ways the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading

By Elliott Wave International

5 Ways the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading 

Jeffrey Kennedy brings more than 15 years of experience to his position as Elliott Wave International’s Senior Analyst and trading instructor. He knows firsthand how hard it can be to get simple explanations of a trading method that works — so he shares his knowledge with his subscribers each month in the Trader’s Classroom lessons.

Here’s an excerpt from The Best of Trader’s Classroom, a free 45-page eBook that gives you the 14 most critical lessons every trader should know. Download the full eBook free here.

Every trader, every analyst and every technician has favorite techniques to use when trading. But where traditional technical studies fall short, the Wave Principle kicks in to show high-probability price targets. Just as important, it can distinguish high-probability trade setups from the ones that traders should ignore.

Where Technical Studies Fall Short
There are three categories of technical studies: trend-following indicators, oscillators and sentiment indicators. Trend-following indicators include moving averages, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) and Directional Movement Index (ADX). A few of the more popular oscillators many traders use today are Stochastics, Rate-of-Change and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI). Sentiment indicators include Put-Call ratios and Commitment of Traders report data.

Technical studies like these do a good job of illuminating the way for traders, yet they each fall short for one major reason: they limit the scope of a trader’s understanding of current price action and how it relates to the overall picture of a market. For example, let’s say the MACD reading in XYZ stock is positive, indicating the trend is up. That’s useful information, but wouldn’t it be more useful if it could also help to answer these questions: Is this a new trend or an old trend? If the trend is up, how far will it go? Most technical studies simply don’t reveal pertinent information such as the maturity of a trend and a definable price target — but the Wave Principle does.

How Does the Wave Principle Improve Trading?
Here are five ways the Wave Principle improves trading:

1. Identifies Trend
The Wave Principle identifies the direction of the dominant trend. A five-wave advance identifies the overall trend as up. Conversely, a five-wave decline determines that the larger trend is down. Why is this information important? Because it is easier to trade in the direction


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Which Way Wednesday – Pattern Recognition Special

Head and shoulders, knees and toes.

Sorry, I can’t think head and shoulders without adding the second part thanks to the darned Wiggles, which my kids were raised on – better than Barney, at least…   The head and shoulders investors care about is the chart pattern (from the Chart Store) and, frankly, I could make a knees and toes case by extrapolating the left side of this disaster (which was actually a great bull run but would not be as much fun if we flip it). 

TA is all about symmetry and pattern recognition, two things that are hard-wired into the pleasure center of the animal brain to help us develop cognitive skills early in life.  Humans love finding patterns – it makes us happy.  In this particular case, the fact that stocks go up and down and then get overbought and then get oversold as they correct to the mean has been cleverly identified by one primate (and I hope he gets a copyright fee) as a "head and shoulders" pattern and all the other media primates gather around the great obelisk and they howl and shriek at you every day and they cast their bones and make proclamatiotion as to what it foretells

Unfortunately, Technical Analysis has so many devout followers that it often becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.  Even worse (and certainly more significant) than the head and shoulders pattern is the coincident "death cross" or "dark cross" that is being formed on our indexes (see yesterday’s post) as the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, as indicated on this chart from Barry Ritholtz:

Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Bone-Caster at BAC, made the follwing prediction about the pattern she was seeing:

June 23, 2010 marked the 1-year anniversary of last June’s bullish Golden Cross of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average. This Golden Cross signal preceded a 12-month return of 22.4% on the S&P 500. The average 12-month return for the 42 Golden Crosses that have occurred since 1928 is 9.6%. More importantly, the June 23, 2009 signal occurred during the NBER recession that began in December 2007 and Golden Crosses associated with recessions show a much stronger average 12-month return of 19.5%. The average 12-month return for the S&P 500 over the same period is 7.2%…

The bearish counterpart of the Golden Cross is called a Dark Cross. This signal


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A Classic “Fade The Gap” Day

A Classic “Fade The Gap” Day

Courtesy of David at allabouttrends.net

“What’s so special about 1130? It’s downtrendline resistance and a 50% fibonacci level” [Click here for a video on Fibonacci retracements.

One look at the SPX chart below tells the story, all in a news driven pop based upon the Yuan.

Sure enough the opening gap took us right to those levels.

So are the markets really up today or are they down? Just look at the two charts below.

 

So in answer to the question of whether we are up or down for the day — how about BOTH?  To those who have been in the market before Friday’s close yes it’s up.

But to those who had to chase the market at the open and REACT AFTER THE FACT the market is down. This is what they mean when they say “Fade The Gap”. Folks going into today we were overbought to begin with and the Chinese Yuan news was just the icing on the cake to set up the fade the gap and lock in some gains.

Think about it, anyone who basically bought anything today is basically down from their entry.

Moral of the story — listen to the charts and above all NEVER CHASE BUSES BY REACTING. 

The markets are stretched and hitting key resistance levels and a lot of individual stocks are also showing this — AKAM, SNDK,NFLX — all have technical indicators and nano-timeframe toppiness showing up as well. Right now we are going slow and protecting what we have.

“What Do I Need To See To Make Me Take A Trade”

You would do yourself well by printing off that phrase and pasting it to your monitor somewhere to keep you focused and to ingrain it in your subconscious.

On the long side it’s all about “Pullbacks Off Highs” patterns.  It’s really all you need to know and how to trade them of course.

To learn more, sign up for our free newsletter and receive our free report — “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.”

****

Adam at Market Club put together a lesson on Fibonacci retracements, an important tool many traders use to determine turning points in the market. Like all tools, it has its flaws and should be…
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Playing the Gap: Identifying and Trading Gaps

Playing the Gap: Identifying and Trading Gaps

Courtesy of Pharmboy

Gaps are very profitable technical indicators.  A gap is an area on a chart where no trades take place and these are caused by fundamental or technical events that usually occur after the market closes and before the market opens, also known as ‘non-regular trading hours’ (NRTH’s).  There are four basic gap types:  area, continuation, breakaway and exhaustion.

Gaps are significant for many reasons:

  1. Gaps tell traders that something occurred during NRTH’s.  Typical events include: earnings announcements, FDA approvals, analyst upgrades/downgrades, company press releases and other significant events that may cause investors and traders to place orders to buy or sell during NRTH’s, causing an order imbalance.
  2. The type of gap will help you determine the probability of the stock’s direction in the short and intermediate term.
  3. Gaps are profitable.  Traders can take advantage of the imbalance of orders by either “catching the momentum” or “fading the gap”.  When riding a gap, the traders are betting that the stock will continue in the direction it gapped.  When a trader fades a gap, they are betting that the gap will “fill” and move opposite of the gap’s opening direction.

Types of Gaps

Area Gaps

Area gaps are usually small and unimportant.  They are also referred to as “common gaps” because they occur so frequently.  Characteristics of area gaps are that they are fill very quickly. When the word “fill” is used, traders are referring to the gap’s closure.  The gaps usually occur in trading ranges and they form on very low volume.  Because of the low buying volume of the stock, the gap cannot sustain itself, thus filling relatively quickly. 

The easiest way to determine if a gap will fill is to watch the first 30 minutes of the day.  If the candlesticks appear to be fading in the opposite direction, it’s very difficult to stop it.  This is because many others see the same fade and will jump on board.  Remember, a gap does not have to fill on the same day of the gap.  These types of gaps are unpredictable and are hard to trade.  Figure 59 an example of an area gap.

Figure 59.  Area gap.

Continuation Gaps

Continuation gaps are extremely important because they “continue” a trend.  They are also known as “runaway” or “measuring” gaps and they do not fill quickly.  These…
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Basic Technical Patterns: The Foundation of Common Pattern Identification

Pharmboy’s latest chapter in his TA eBook – Chapter 7! - Ilene 

Links for previous chapters:

1. Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing (Chp. 1),

2. Dow’s Theory of Markets (Chp. 2),

3 & 4. Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis and Types of Technical Trading (Chps. 3 & 4).

5. Stock Charting Basics: How to Read & Understand Stock Charts (Chp. 5 here.) 

6. Using Moving Averages for Long and Short Trades (Chp. 6)

Basic Technical Patterns: The Foundation of Common Pattern Identification

Courtesy of Pharmboy of Phil’s Stock World 

History tends to repeat itself, and trend lines, triangles, and other patterns do work in TA.  Charts show the collective opinions of all market participants for that day, month, or whatever timeframe that is used.  Charts are direct evidence of the trader’s beliefs and feelings, and each movement reflects a bit of human emotion (or at least it did before speed trading – HAL9000).  So, it should be no surprise that patterns repeat themselves over and over.

In Figure 1 below, typical up trends and down trends are shown.  These zigzag patterns are seen all the time, but why do they form?  Let’s say someone bought a stock at a certain point.  If that stock went up, but pulled back to the original purchase price, they will often think that it’s an opportunity to buy more at their original price, thus adding to their position.  This is also the same for shorts when they are able to short a stock at the same price they shorted previously. Then why do peaks form? People sell (or cover) to take profits.  Obviously, any increase in selling will pull the stock back.  Those who bought at a lower level may start buying again.  This repeats and repeats until 1) there is no more stock left for people to buy, or 2) there is too much supply and not enough buyers.  On a larger scale, this is how bull and bear markets begin and end.

Figure 1  Typical up and down trends.

The following basic chart…
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Same Day. Same Event. Same Market. Different Story!

Same Day. Same Event. Same Market. Different Story!
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts." — Robert Prechter. 

By Vadim Pokhlebkin, courtesy of Elliott Wave International 

Elliott wavers sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be "open to interpretation." For example, what looks like a finished 1-2-3 correction to one analyst, another analyst may interpret as 1-2-3 of a developing impulse, with waves 4 and 5 on the way.

Does this happen? Absolutely. (Although, there are always tools an Elliottician can employ to firm up the wave count.) But here’s the real question: What’s the alternative?

Typical alternatives amount to analysis of the fundamentals: Jobs, interest rates, CPI, PPI, what Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday — it all goes into the pot. Result? Well, if you think it’s clear and unambiguous, guess again. Here’s a fresh example.

On the evening of February 18, in a surprise move, the Federal Reserve raised its discount rate — the interest rate at which it lends money to banks. The next morning the S&P futures were pointing lower; everyone was bracing for a weak day — because, as conventional thinking goes, higher interest rates are bad for business, the economy, and ultimately for the stock market. Friday morning, stocks indeed opened lower and major news headlines confirmed: 

  • Wall St opens weaker after Fed move
  • … Investors Wary After Fed Move
  • Stocks Open Lower After Surprise Fed Move

But around 11am that same morning, the DJIA turned around and moved higher. Now look at what the headlines from major sources were saying after lunch on February 19:

  • US stocks bounce back; Fed move viewed in positive light
  • US Stocks Up A Bit On Fed Discount Rate Increase
  • Stocks Higher After Fed Move

What was a "bearish move" by the Fed in the morning morphed into a "bullish" one by the afternoon! Same event. Same market. Same day. Completely opposite interpretation!

This brings to mind the answer EWI’s President Robert Prechter once gave when asked about the objectivity of Elliott wave analysis. Bob said:

"I always ask, ‘compared to what?’ There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same ‘fundamental’ news event -- a war, the level of interest rates, the P/E ratio, GDP reports, you name it — and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data.…
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Phil's Favorites

Chart o' the Day: US Stocks > Everything

 

Chart o’ the Day: US Stocks > Everything

Courtesy of 

Last year was a great year for US stocks but an even better year for markets around the world.

So far, at almost the halfway point of 2018, this has mostly reversed itself. The world is being led by the Nasdaq 100, followed by the Russell 2000 index of US small caps, followed by the S&P 500’s US large cap index.

Just about everything else has reversed into the negative.

Here’s what it looks like:

Only the US has seen...



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Zero Hedge

"Italy Is Collapsing...And 5 Star Is Our Last Hope": How Young Italians Fueled A Populist Uprising

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Unlike in the US, where President Trump relies on older Americans for his base of support, more than half (53%) of Italians under 35 voted for one of the two anti-establishment parties that triumphed in Italy's March election. Their enthusiastic support explains the outpouring of anger directed at technocratic Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who called for new elections as he seemingly reached for every conceivable excu...



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Insider Scoop

More Trade Threats Spook Investors

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY The Market In 5 Minutes: Trade Tensions Intensify, ZTE Rebuked, Housing Starts And More Mark Cuban, Others...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - Testing support on cycle low

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Due to popular demand, bitcoin review.

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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and ...

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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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