Posts Tagged ‘Commercial real estate defaults’

SOME WARNING SIGNS FOR MR. MARKET

SOME WARNING SIGNS FOR MR. MARKET

Mr. MarketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Courtesy of David Rosenberg:

SOME WARNING SIGNS FOR MR. MARKET

•  The market has gone nowhere over the last three trading days despite what was being construed on bubblevision as unrelenting good news (home prices, house sales, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, Bernanke’s reappointment) — any other time in the last five months, these “green shoots’ would have turned the equity screens green. Could be a sign that a lot of good news is already being discounted.

•  While it is often reported that over 70% of S&P 500 companies beat their 2Q earnings estimates, only 46% did so meaningfully. Not only that, but only 23% significantly beat their top-line revenue projections. See page C2 of the WSJ (The Rally Revenue Forgot).

•  Leading stocks have been seeing reduced trading volumes of late.

•  VIX futures and the put/call ratio on the S&P 500 have shot upwards in the past few sessions.

•  The ECRI leading economic indicator fell 0.4% in the latest week, the first decline in six weeks and only the second falloff in the past eighteen.

•  Sentiment is far too bullish — to an extreme level. A sentiment index quoted in today’s NYT business section is now 89% bullish, the same as it was in October 2007; at the March lows, it was sitting at 2%. See Some Once-Bullish Analysts See an End to Market Rally on page B1 of the Monday NYT.

•  Corporate insiders sold nearly 31 times more stock than they bought in August (TrimTabs data) — the long run average is 7x and it was 2x at the lows (apparently a heck of a buying opportunity at that time).

•  Small-cap stocks are down for back-to-back weeks and Chinese equities are on a four-week losing streak. Finally, the market has turned in the precise same 50% advance over the same 117 time period that it enjoyed coming off the 1929 lows — that rally ended despite all the hype at the time and the market lost more than 50% in the ensuing year.

•  Of course, there are the negative seasonals too — since 1950, the S&P 500 is down 1% in September, on average, and has declined twice as often as it has rallied during the month.

•  The H1N1 flu is a clear obstacle. This


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The Second Great Depression... But Not Really

 

The Second Great Depression… But Not Really

By John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job;
it's a depression when you lose yours."

—Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President

In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression.

For some areas of the economy, that is clearly true. But not every area.

Today we will explore what some smart minds are saying about the current economic environment. I'll also aim to help you navigate through its complexity.

Here's one t...



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Zero Hedge

American Airlines Slated To Drop Dozens Of Flights To Smaller Cities As Government Aid Dries Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With the government set to stop subsidizing the industry, airlines are gasp> actually going to have to make operational changes to effectively deal with the lack of demand. Oh, the horror of free market forces actually forcing companies to make business changes!

This starts with American Airlines, who is reportedly preparing to drop two dozen small and medium city flights as federal coronavirus aid is set to end. The aid had previously mandated that airlines were not allowed to cut service ...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks talks fall apart as Congress goes on vacation

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Our predictions regarding the coronavirus stimulus checks and related relief appears to be correct. Congress has abdicated its duty and gone on vacation while Americans await unemployment and other related stimulus programs. While the action is hard to fathom, there is a good chance the market will crash or other pressure will bring the sides together sooner than the current schedule of September 8th.

Prior coverage

The two sides continue to drift apart on the bill over Coronavirus stimulus checks and relief legislation. From a game theory perspective, I believe the Democrats are in the driver’s seat. If the bill is not passed, the economy will crash further and lead to certain electoral losses for Trump and the GOP. Therefore, the Democrats have little incentive to push for a speedy passage of the bill.

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

 

Rapid screening tests that prioritize speed over accuracy could be key to ending the coronavirus pandemic

Broad and frequent screening could catch coronavirus cases before they can spread to others. Vaidas Bucys/EyeEm via Getty Images

Courtesy of Zoë McLaren, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Broad access to testing is one of the most powerful tools to keep the COVID-19 pande...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Could Be Creating Large Reversal Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver prices from 30-years ago be influencing price action this month? Joe Friday suggests it is possible.

This chart looks at Silver Futures on a monthly basis over the past 40-years. Fibonacci levels were applied to the 1980 highs ($50) and 1991 lows ($.350) in Silver.

The 50% retracement levels of the 1980 high/1991 low came into play as support for a few months at each (1). Once this support broke, Silver fell another 50%.

The impressive rally over the past 8-weeks has Silver testing the 50% retracement level as potential...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.






XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image i...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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