Posts Tagged ‘correction’

A BEAR MARKET OR JUST A CORRECTION?

A BEAR MARKET OR JUST A CORRECTION?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Bull in bear costume

Readers have likely noted my decidedly more bearish tone of late.  Coming into 2010 I was fairly optimistic about the equity markets and the economy in the first half of the year with expectations of a second half slow-down.   The market appeared likely to unfold in exactly that manner, but the developments in China and Greece looked like game changers to me as the global turmoil unfolded a bit faster than I expected.  So much so that I initiated my first net short position in over two years as the S&P surged to 1200.  Just a few short weeks later the market was literally crashing.

But as the market continues to decline we have to ask ourselves if fear isn’t getting a bit ahead of fundamentals?  Are investors too bearish and pricing in too much negativity or are they not bearish enough?  In other words, is this a new bear market or this just a correction? This was the question David Rosenberg asked himself in last Thursday’s missive:

“Well, so far the S&P 500 is down nearly 10% from the highs, so this is indeed a correction thus far but more often than not, declines like these morph into something more severe — even when we are in durable economic expansion phases like 1987 and 1998. This recovery is tentative, at best. But the numbers we are looking at is a 50% retracement of the March 2009-April 2010 runup, which means 943 on the S&P 500 and the reality that lows in the market, whether they be interim or more fundamental, tend to occur with the index 20% below the 200-day moving average, which at this stage would be 879. So at least we have a defined range of when to begin to put money to work. A break below that range would indicate that Mr. Market is sniffing out a double-dip recession, not just a visible slowing.

The ECRI leading index is down to a 47-week low, which is pointing towards much softer growth ahead and the Shanghai equity index is off nearly 30% and perhaps giving us a reading on global growth prospects. The one thing we do know is that the last time China was down 30%, this was a train hardly worth boarding in terms of how to be positioned


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Did you expect anything different?

Did you expect anything different?

Courtesy of Nicholas Santiago at InTheMoneyStocks.com

Ending of a Birthday Party

The rally from the March 2009 lows was one of the largest rallies we have ever witnessed in stock market history. While the ninth year of a decade is usually a bullish trading year there a very few people who expected an advance over fifty percent off the lows. Many traders and investors including myself would have expected at least one 10 percent correction during that rally; as we all know that did happen. The closest that we did come to a ten percent correction in the major indexes was in June through early July 2009, when the market pulled back nearly eight percent. That was really the extent of it for the year of 2009 as far as pullbacks and corrections are concerned.

Why is 2010 a completely different picture for the stock market? When the SPDR TRUST (NYSE:SPY), Power Shares QQQ(Nasdaq:QQQQ), and Diamonds trust Series 1 ETF (NYSE:DIA) found a low in March 2009 the public was in despair. People believed that the next great depression was underway. Massive liquidity was put into the market by every central bank in the world. Cash literally poured into every toxic asset that was ever designed. Since that time the markets have responded by moving over 50 percent off their lows. Now what? Are we back to normal yet?

Today the markets want to know what is next from Mr. Bernanke and company (other central banks). Like the Janet Jackson song says, “what have you done for me lately”? What is next for an encore? The general problems such as the severe housing crisis still remains, the high unemployment picture has not changed, banks have cut credit lines are still not lending or making significant loans, and spending by the consumer continues to remain near extremely low levels. While the Federal government can create tax breaks and incentive programs for hurting citizens and residents to make them feel like they are getting something, however, can that really fix the problem?

Where are we now? Currently we are in the middle of a correction. If you have ever gone to a party, you know the party must come to end eventually. Well, the market is telling you that the 2009 party is over for now. Yes, someone will have another party along the…
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Don’t Let The Correction Take Away Your Profits

Don’t Let The Correction Take Away Your Profits

Courtesy of David Grandey
All About Trends

After one of the strongest rallies in the history of the U.S. Stock Market, the market may finally be in the early stages of its first meaningful correction since the rally began last March.
 
Don’t let the correction take away your hard-earned profits again! 
 
If YOU continue to think the way YOU’VE always thought, YOU’LL continue to get the results YOU’VE always got.
If YOU are getting the results YOU want then continue to think the way YOU’VE always thought.
If YOU are not getting the results you want, Then YOU YOU YOU need to change YOUR thinking.

That all being said, welcome to the brave new world, the world where it’s ALL ABOUT YOU and taking control of YOUR future!

Its no secret that the markets have been vicious, especially to the conventional Wall St. Type of accounts. You know the ones we are talking about right? The ones where the battle cry/motto is:

Buy and hold. You can’t time the market. Invest for the long haul. Put your money in mutual funds where everyone gets paid except for YOU!
 

 

If you continue to do what you’ve done then you have no choice but to grin and bear it.

Managing or having your account managed in a Buy and Hope as the market goes so goes your account format IS NOT an option. Better learn how to trade, better learn how to hit and run. Better learn how to short stocks as you need to be able to make money when the market moves in either direction.  Trade your plan and plan your trades.

One of the common denominators with past bear market rallies is that near the end of them the talking heads started parading around saying the worst is over, that was the bottom, you gotta buy stocks, etc. Sound familiar?

Speaking of plans: Let’s say your portfolio is $50,000 and let’s say that your whole strategy is hit and run get your $500 a week and go. Now let’s say that you do two trades a month only using 50% of your acct. That’s 1,000.00 per month times 12 months equals $12,000 per year. Divided by $50,000 equals 24% after one year. Think the indexes…
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The Double Dippers Are Out In Force This Weekend

The Double Dippers Are Out In Force This Weekend

Posted by Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Three syringes, close-up

The Double Dippers got a shot of B12 last week right into the puffed out vein in their foreheads.

Even the bulls gotta admit, their case has begun to look better based on this week’s nasty surprise on consumer delinquencies from Capital One ($COF) as well as the continuing jobless claims number.

Charts and Coffee is reminding us that:

  • The IBD 100 has fallen about 3.5% since the beginning of the year and is trading below its 50-day moving average.
  • Half the 100 stocks in the IBD 100 Index are under their 50-day moving averages (as of Friday).

Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach was talking double dip with Marc Faber on CNBC, The Pragmatic Capitalist has the video here.

The most comprehensive summation of the bearish economic case can be found on the Dow Jones Market Talk blog via Paul Vigna‘s discussion about how in the early 30′s, they thought the worst was over too.  Vigna quotes a recent McKinsey piece on deleveraging:

“Deleveraging episodes are painful, lasting six to seven years on average and reducing the ratio of debt to GDP by 25 percent.  GDP typically contracts during the first several years and then recovers. If history is a guide, many years of debt reduction are expected in specific sectors of some of the world’s largest economies, and this process will exert a significant drag on GDP growth.”

We’ll see if tomorrow is another Merger/ Mutual Fund Monday or if there will be a continuation of last week’s 400 point Dow sell-off.

Oh yeah, I should mention that the Bank of China just got clearance for a 20% secondary sale of common stock, equating to roughly $30 billion worth at today’s valuations. CORRECTED: 40 Billion Yuan worth (roughly $6 billion USD) – thx to Patty Edwards.  Yuck.

 


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Multi-Year Stock Market Top Could Be In

Mish thinks the top is either in or should be, if fundamentals matter anymore.  He’s made a lot of good calls in the past. – Ilene

Multi-Year Stock Market Top Could Be In

Courtesy of Mish

Professor David Waggoner posted the following chart yesterday on Minyanville that I think is worth noting.

click on chart for sharper image

Professor Waggoner commented "The next intermediate level pivot down is around 882. It is a 50% retrace of the entire move up from the low and is a possible pivot for an extension of the entire A-B-C pattern off the low. It is also a natural support level as shown on the chart.

These intermediate level targets are based on the interpretation that the move up from the March low is a corrective retrace of a 5 wave set down from October 2007.

I concur with Professor Waggoner’s analysis.

The important point in above chart is that the move up from the March low is likely a correction, not the start of a new bull market. That information alone is worth far more than any details as to how the market may decline from here. Many patterns are still in play.

Depending on the index, you can count these moves off the bottom as a simple A-B-C correction as shown, or as an A-B-C-D-E wedge. We’ll know which one was correct in hindsight, but both suggest stocks will eventually make new lows – either sooner (in 2010) or later. A multi-year top could be in. Fundamentally, it should be in.

In the short-term, if we have in fact seen the end of the rally, the SPX will likely decline to the 200 day moving average, currently at 916. By the time we get there, it could be in the neighborhood of the 38% retrace line near 933. If things go quickly, it could be down there by the end of the year.

This is not a recommendation to short; this is a notice that risk is tremendously high and a top could be (and in my opinion should be) in. The market may have other ideas.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


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LET’S GET TECHNICAL: EXPECTING MORE DECLINES

LET’S GET TECHNICAL: EXPECTING MORE DECLINES

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Decision Point:

The stock market continues to frustrate those who are expecting a decent correction, and I am among that impatient throng. It is possible that the correction has actually begun, but, after a choppy week, the S&P 500 found momentary support on the 20-EMA. As you can see on the chart, the 20-EMA has been a fairly consistent support level since the rally began.

dp1

Short-term indicators are slightly oversold, but medium-term indicators, like those below are in the neutral zone and showing persistent negative divergences. Also, they are topping near the zero line, which is an indication of greater than normal internal weakness.

dp2

Cycles have not been of much use lately, but it is worth mentioning that the 20-Week Cycle is due to trough at the end of November. Price declines associated with the 20-Week Cycle trough can be quite impressive, sometimes more so than 9-Month Cycle lows.

Look for an upside surprise from the dollar. It is being squeezed into the apex of a descending wedge pattern, and the most likely resolution of this kind of pattern is to the upside. Note also that the weekly PMO (price momentum oscillator) is becoming quite oversold. I do not mean to imply that the long-term trend will be turning up, but sentiment on the dollar is very negative, and bounce could trigger a lot of short-covering.

dp3 - us dollar

Bottom Line: Regarding the stock market, this is one of those weeks where I could have skipped making any comment at all. While I keep looking for a correction, the market shows no significant external weakness. Nevertheless, technical weakness is evident, and an important cycle low is due next month. As for the dollar, it is fundamentally doomed as far out as I can see; however, that does not mean it won’t rally from time to time, and the technicals say we should prepare for a dollar rally soon.

Source: Decision Point

 


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LET’S GET TECHNICAL

LET’S GET TECHNICAL

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From Decision Point:

The market has begun another correction, but so far no serious technical damage has been done. The S&P 500 remains within the grasp of an ascending wedge formation, the dominant feature on the daily chart. On Friday prices hit their lowest level of the correction, but they remained above the support of the 50-EMA and the rising trend line. Next major support is at the 200-EMA.

As regular readers know, it is most likely that prices will break down from the rising wedge pattern, and I am inclined to believe that will happen in this case. Internal conditions for the medium-term are neutral to slightly overbought, and I think the market needs to get medium-term oversold before the correction will end. Also, it is October, and a certain amount of ugliness should be expected. I hear that a number of people are expecting a crash, but I see no evidence that would make me anticipate anything more than a normal correction.

dp1 LETS GET TECHNICAL

The following Participation Index (PI) chart shows that the short-term market condition is oversold. This could signal a short-term bounce, or the end of the correction. The latter is unlikely because the market needs to get more oversold medium-term before another up leg begins.

dp2 LETS GET TECHNICAL

Bottom Line: It is very likely that the S&P 500 will break down out of the rising wedge pattern soon. With luck a breakdown will be followed by a healthy correction, but we are in a bull market and I wouldn’t bet on anything worse than that.

Source: Decision Point

 


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Is This the Start of the Big One?

Is This the Start of the Big One?

the big oneBy Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism

I don’t believe in market calls, and trying to time turns is a perilous game. But most savvy people I know have been skeptical of this rally, beyond the initial strong bounce off the bottom. It has not had the characteristics of a bull market. Volumes have been underwhelming, no new leadership group has emerged, and as greybeards like to point out, comparatively short, large amplitude rallies are a bear market speciality.

In addition, this one has had some troubling features. Most notable has been the almost insistent media cheerleading, particularly from atypical venues for that sort of thing, like Bloomberg. Investors who are not at all the conspiracy-minded sort wonder if there has been an official hand in the "almost nary a bad word will be said" news posture. Tyler Durden has regularly claimed that major trading desks have been actively squeezing shorts. There have been far too many days with suspicious end of session rallies.

The fall in the markets overnight, particularly the 5.8% drop in Shanghai, seems significant in combination with other factors…  continue here. 

*****

Image from Op-toons Review (funny site, check it out)

 
  

 


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Zero Hedge

Trump Sues Manhattan D.A. In Response To Subpoenas

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

And now a plot twist: with Trump under relentless attack for the past three years to disclose his tax returns, on Thursday morning the president struck back, suing Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance to block an attempt by New York state prosecutors to obtain eight years of the president’s tax returns in a probe of whether the Trump Organization falsified business records.   

...



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Phil's Favorites

At Press Conference, Fed Chair Powell Refuses to Answer Whether Wall Street Banks Are Too Big to Manage

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Press Conference, September 18, 2019

Following a lack of liquidity on Wall Street, which necessitated the Federal Reserve having to provide $53 billion on Tuesday and another $75 billion on Wednesday to normalize overnight lending in the repo market, the Chairman of the Fed, Jerome (Jay) Powell held his press conference at 2:30 p.m. yesterday. The press gathering followed both a one-quarter point cut in the Fed Funds rate by the Fed yesterday as well as the first intervention by the Fed in the overnight lending market since the financi...



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Insider Scoop

How Cheapskates Can Access Mid Caps

Courtesy of Benzinga

For investors that don't like stocks but do enjoy saving money on fund fees, exchange traded funds are highly desirable destinations. And for those looking to dance with mid-cap stocks, a desirable asset class, there are plenty of compelling ETFs for cost-conscious investors to consider.

What Happened

The Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF (NYSE: ...



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The Technical Traders

SAFE ASSETS - A TRADING STRATEGY FOR UTILITIES, GOLD, AND BONDS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his trading strategy for safer assets. While precious metals and bonds had a great run, the charts are showing the utilities could be the place to be in the short term. It’s important to note we are not saying the other safe havens are going to crash but it’s all about the time frame and playing the sector that could pop first.

LISTEN HERE NOW

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks, Oil, and Bond Yields At Critical Bullish Breakout Tests!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s not often that three asset classes reach similar important trading points all at once.

But that’s exactly what’s happening right now with stocks, crude oil, and treasury bond yields.

And this is occurring on Federal Reserve day no less! Something has got to give.

In the chart above y...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Is The Drone Strike a Black Swan?

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Pundits are calling yesterday’s drone strke a “black swan.” Can a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility, be a “black swan.”

According to Investopedia:

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

I seriously doubt that no one expected or could have predicted a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility.

Call Me A B...

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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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About Phil:

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