Posts Tagged ‘CVX’

Thrill is Gone Thursday – Rally Tired or Just Resting?

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow

For anyone who's been paying attention for the last two years – that's usually not a good thing and, as we noted yesterday, it was a strong Euro and a weak Dollar that was driving our little rally.  The Dollar bottomed out at 79 and the Euro topped out at $1.314 and the Euro's strength sent the Yen back up to 79.30 to the Dollar (weaker) and that led to a 2% Nikkei rally last night.  As you can see from the chart on the right, the S&P for the week is 1% behind UK and Germany and 2.5% behind France and Italy (+4%) and Spain (+7%) – so we have a lot of catching up to do if this rally is real and sustainable

Still, I sent out an Alert to Members early this morning noting that the Global Markets were holding up well as of 6am and that was encouraging.  Yesterday we discussed taking advantage of the run-up in the Russell to make a TZA hedge to lock in some of our gains (see main post) but we still haven't covered XLF (target $16.50 – see Dave Fry's chart) and we're still bullish on AAPL as well.  We cashed that ISRG play, as planned for $9 on the spreads (200x = $1,800), spending .30 x 200 ($60) to buy back the callers so that, with the $200 we were paid to take the position is just short of our $2,000 goal at net $1,960 – not bad for a day's "work".  

In Member Chat this morning, we discussed GOOG's outlook for earnings this evening and decided they were more likely topping than popping so we have that risk to the Nasdaq for tomorrow.  IBM was an 80-point drag on the Dow yesterday but it did manage to finish flat and advancers led decliners on the NYSE by 2:1 so the conditions are still there for a rally and hopefully what we have here a a pause that refreshes and not a triple top from the mid-September highs.  

The Nasdaq and the Russell are, in fact, in downtrending channels and, for the Nasdaq, their fate rests on GOOG tonight and AAPL next Thursday – but it's still a long way back to the highs at 3,200.  

As you can see from the
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Friday Failure – Weak Bounce Levels Turn Into Resistance

Resistance is, unfortunately, not futile for our indices.  

On Monday we discussed our expectations for a 2% weak bounce for the week, which would be a 20% retrace of the 10% drop I had predicted we'd have way back (and a bit early) in March.  That constitutes a WEAK bounce and not a rally and they almost fooled us on Monday by taking back most of that 2% on day one but, since then – it's been pathetic and we've essentially done nothing the rest of the week.  

The levels we were looking for were laid out in Monday's Member Chat and in Tuesday morning's post and were:

  • Dow – 12,750 (12,540 is 20% retrace/weak bounce), now 12,529 – off by 11
  • S&P – 1,343 (1,319), now 1,320 – off by 1
  • Nas – 2,900 (2,840) , now 2,839 – off by 1
  • NYSE – 7,720 (7,560), now 7,552 – off by 8 
  • RUT – 780, (765), now 766


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Monday Market Movement – Trying to Get Bullish

We are still trying to get more bullish.

Over the weekend we set a new, higher set of levels for our Big Chart on the assumption that our breakout levels hold up and our new Must Hold lines become Dow 13,600 (not there yet), S&P 1,360, Nasdaq 3,000, NYSE 8,000 and Russell 800, which means it's now up to the Dow and Nasdaq to continue to show leadership if we're going to be having a rally good enough to get us to add our next 10 bullish plays.

I already added 2 aggressive upside trade ideas on XLF and SPY in the weekend post and last week we already looked at WFR, X, BAC, GLW, BBY, CHK, AAPL, AA, and BA but we also added a new Long Put List (Members Only), which had 19 stocks that we thought were good downside horses to ride if, per chance, we fail to hold 3 of our 5 breakout levels.  

It shouldn't be too much to ask – IF this is a real bull market.  We've been extremely skeptical up to this point and, Fundamentally, I still have my doubts but Technically, we can't keep fighting the tape so were drawing a line in the sand for Mr. Market to cross and, if it does so, we're happy to play along.  If it fails to do so, however, well – we've already made those bets!  

Our aggressive take on the Dow is the result of analyzing the 5 components that were replaced since the crash with MO and HON thrown out for BAC and CVX in Feb of 2008, AIG replaced by KFT in Sept 2008 and C and GM replaced by CSCO and TRV in June 2009, causing a massive distortion in the index, meaning 16,000 is the old 15,000, possibly even lower:  

The Nasdaq is similarly distorted by AAPL, who are up 500% since 2009 and when a stock that is 11.5% of an index is up 500%, that stock alone causes the index to go up 57.5%, which is why we now call it the AAPLdaq.  The AAPLdaq itself is "only" up 100%, which means the ENTIRE rest of the index is lagging with a 42.5% contribution – those who tell you that tech is somehow loved again are fooling themselves
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Tuesday – Topping Out or Just Pinning the Fed?

Tough call today

The Dollar bounced off 79.75 this morning, nothing to crow about for Dollar bulls as the Euro remains just over the critical $1.30 mark and the Pound is solidly over $1.55 for the moment.  

You could say it's a bearish sign that the Dow and the NYSE stopped dead at our breakout levels but that's to be expected on a first attempt at breaking out – even if they have already attempted the same move back in late October, when the Dow was 5% lower in it's test and the NYSE was testing the same line (7,866).  

Our broadest market index is the one that's holding everyone back as what little volume there has been in this rally has been fairly narrowly focused on certain leaders.  Now a pessimist might say that this is a reflection of the blatant manipulation of the indexes in which certain Banksters place buys on stocks that have disproportionate positive effects on the junior indexes in order to fool retail traders into believing there is a rally while the Banksters drive the VIX down to multi-year lows, dump all their stocks on the bagholders and prepare to cash in by crashing the markets on a major event like tomorrow's FOMC Rate Decision which is, in fact, very unlikely to have any language specific to the QE3 that has been promised by the MSM since Thanksgiving.  

SPY DAILY An optimist would say – well, you can read almost any MSM site for that.  It's lonely at the top of the range when you are bearish, one by one the other bears capitulate and soon you are there all by yourself with your shorts – your lovely, lovely, cheap shorts!  The Dow shot up yesterday to just over the 12,749 breakout line we have as the tippy top of the range on our Big Chart so of course I called for DIA puts in Member Chat.  The DIA Feb $123 puts, which came in around .75 and finished the day not much higher at .78 after topping out at .95.  Ranges usually hold – if you're not going to have conviction at the very top of a range to short – when will you?  For one thing – you have a very good stop line to watch!

As noted by Dave Fry in his SPY chart, the bulls have engineered their golden cross…
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Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?

So many things are pissing me off today.  

I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don't need to talk about that again.  Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU's deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks.  Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks.  While this may seem insane – it's only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn't they join the club?  

At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies.  That's $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.  

As I said, things are pissing me off today!  I should be in a better mood – we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday.  In yesterday's post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Virtual Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will…
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Defending Your Virtual Portfolio With Dividends – Q4 (Members Only)

In uncertain markets, dividends can give you a critical investing edge.

As you can see from the chart on the left, just mindlessly investing in dividend-paying stocks can give you more than a 2:1 annual advantage in your investments

Of course, here at PSW, we teach the art of selling options premiums – something that turns virtually any stock into a "dividend" payer.  For example, MSFT is only a small, 2% dividend-payer but a fairly solid cash-machine of a stock that we don't feel is likely to go bankrupt overnight so it makes for a nice safe staple in a long-term virtual portfolio.  But MSFT is also a very poorly-run company that hasn't grown in 20 years but we can make it a much more interesting stock by simply selling covered calls.

For example, in our August edition of Dividend Payers,  we looked at MSFT for $24.23 and we sell the Sept $24 calls for .77.  This lowered our effective basis to $23.46 and selling the call putus in no special danger – we simply agreed to sell MSFT for $24 on expiration day in September (the 17th).

The stock was called away from us, and we made a .54 profit or 2.3% of our net $23.46 cash investment in less than 30 days.  That works out to a 26% annualized ROI and we had an opportunity (as we had expected) to buy the stock again and again at $24 on Oct 4th and 5th and sell the November $24 calls for .90 for a net $23.10 re-entry and ANOTHER 3.8% GAIN if we are called away at $24 or greater on Nov 19th.  Doesn't that beat waiting a whole quarter for your 1% dividend checks?  

Of course, you can optimize all this with timing and we favor stocks that are on sale – this is just a very simple example of how our most basic options strategy can drastically boost your annual returns on any stock in your virtual portfolio.

Let's say you don't want to mess around with MSFT every month.  You could have simply sold the 2012 $22.50s for $4.40 (also suggested in the August post), that dropped your net entry from $24.23 to $19.83…
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Testy Tuesday – 7.5% or Bust!

Wheee, this is fun!

Will our 7.5% lines hold?  As I mentioned yesterday, we expected a test of our 7.5% lines at  Dow 10,950, S&P 1,160, Nasdaq 2,400, NYSE 7,450 and Russell 690 and we remain TECHNICALLY bullish if we hold them.  The Dollar was doing well until about 3am this morning but then turned down sharply – some sort of rumor is driving the market and, of course, heading into the G20 pretty much any comment made by any Central Banking official is blown way out of proportion.  

China is likely to raise rates today, making a small concession to the US on their exchange rates but more so to cool off the massive property bubble that is forming in their cities.  That may put some downward pressure on commodities without strengthening the dollar – an interesting combo, but one that illustrates how China is becoming more important in the Global marketplace than the US.  

If China is raising their lending rate to 5.56% and their deposit rate to 2.5%, they risk attracting even more money, including a reverse carry-trade from the US, when money can be borrowed from the Fed at 0.25% and lent to China for 2.5% giving the trader a 2.25% profit for the year.  2.25% may not sound that sexy, but when it’s done by Investment Banks and other investors who can lever their money 10:1, that’s a 22.5% on their cash.  This is how Japan has supported their economy for two decades but it’s hard to imagine what will happen if the US Dollar, which makes up 62% of all money on the planet, starts flowing out of the country in even faster quantities.  

pboc1019We were just discussing investing in foreign countries in Member chat and I warned that this may not be the best time to make that kind of move as the dollar is very possibly bottoming here and transferring US Dollars to another currency risks hitting a reversal that wipes out any interest gains and possibly even some the principal as the Dollar rebounds and you find yourself in the wrong currency at the wrong time.  

I guess I should talk about AAPL although we’ve already discussed it in depth in Member Chat but they do seem to have had some kind of earnings and, although very nice – expectations were already a bit high so they…
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Defending Your Virtual Portfolio With Dividends (Members Only)

In uncertain markets, dividends can give you a critical investing edge.

As you can see from the chart on the left, just mindlessly investing in dividend-paying stocks can give you more than a 2:1 annual advantage in your investments

Of course, here at PSW, we teach the art of selling options premiums – something that turns virtually any stock into a "dividend" payer.  For example, MSFT is only a small, 2% dividend-payer but a fairly solid cash-machine of a stock that we don’t feel is likely to go bankrupt overnight so it makes for a nice safe staple in a long-term virtual portfolio.  But MSFT is also a very poorly-run company that hasn’t grown in 20 years but we can make it a much more interesting stock by simply selling covered calls.

For example, we buy MSFT for $24.23 and we sell the Sept $24 calls for .77.  This lowers our effective basis to $23.46 and selling the call puts us in no special danger – we are simply agreeing to sell MSFT for $24 on expiration day in September (the 17th).  Should the stock be called away from us, we make a .54 profit or 2.3% of our net $23.46 cash investment in less than 30 days.  That works out to a 26% annualized ROI and, even if we get called away, we can simply buy the stock again and again and sell calls every month.  Of course, you can optimize all this with timing and we favor stocks that are on sale – this is just a very simple example of how our most basic options strategy can drastically boost your annual returns on any stock in your virtual portfolio.

Let’s say you don’t want to mess around with MSFT every month.  You can simply sell the 2012 $22.50s for $4.40, that drops your net entry from $24.23 to $19.83 and getting called away at $22.50 would be a profit of 13.5% over 17 months PLUS you would be getting your .52 annual dividend so let’s call it .75 more for a total profit (if MSFT holds $22.50) of $3.42 or 17.25% – 1% a month certainly beats what the banks are offering these days!  Not as sexy as the 26% ROI you make by working the trade every month but you do get a built-in cushion that drops your break-even price to $19.83, which is a full 18% below…
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Iron Condor Nesting in Brazil Index ETF

Today’s tickers: EWZ, CVX, WFC, GFI, SU, MA, ZION, DAL, AMAG & JWN

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – An iron condor options strategy employed in the February contract on the EWZ implies one investor expects the underlying share price of the fund to stagnate ahead of expiration in two weeks. Shares of the exchange-traded fund, which generally correspond to the price and performance of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, are down 5% today to $64.37. Today’s decline merely adds salt to the wounds – The Brazil index ETF has taken a severe beating in the past few months, falling 20.5% since attaining a 52-week high of $80.93 back on December 3, 2009. The iron condor, a strategy utilized by option traders anticipating little movement in the underlying share price, is perhaps one investor’s way of indicating the worst is over and a bottom is close at hand. The iron condor’s construction is essentially the combination of two strangles, or alternatively can be thought of as two credit spreads. On the call side, the investor pockets a net credit of $0.09 per contract by selling 10,000 calls at the February $71 strike for $0.13 apiece, spread against the purchase of 10,000 calls at the higher February $74 strike for $0.04 each. As for the puts, the trader receives a net credit of $0.26 per contract on the sale of 10,000 puts at the February $59 strike for $0.44 each, marked against the purchase of 10,000 puts at the lower February $56 strike for $0.18 apiece. Therefore, the combined credit enjoyed on the iron condor amounts to $0.35 per contract. Maximum retention of the $0.35 credit, or total monetary profits of $350,000, is contingent upon the underlying share price at expiration. EWZ shares must trade within a range of $59.00 to $71.00 in order for the investor to walk away with maximum profits. The investor holding the iron condor is exposed to significant losses if his ‘neutral’ prediction is wrong. Maximum loss potential on the transaction of $2.65 per contract is far greater than the $0.35 credit received for undertaking such risk. But, apparently this trader is confident that shares of the underlying stock will move sideways – at least through February expiration. Perhaps this confidence stems from the fact that losses do not amass to the upside unless shares rebound 10.85% to surpass the upper breakeven…
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Weekly Wrap-Up – The Return of Fundamentals?

Fundamentals don't matter, until they do – then they matter a lot

We had a fantastic week because we stuck to the fundamentals and stayed short – even though it was a very painful path to follow.  In last week's wrap-up, facing the never-ending market climb on low volume I had said "I am trying to get bullish, really I am," and I was trying to find bullish plays for members - but we still ended up bearish for the week with a lot of bearish plays being added and thank goodness as it gave us a fantastic week this week!

Just following the plays I mentioned in last week's wrap-up would have been great as we had SKF bullish at $21 (now $26), DIA bearish at $98 (now $96.74), FAZ bullish at $16 (now $22.12), OIH bearish at $120 (now $114.75), SRS bullish at $8.50 (now $9.93) – and those were just from Thursday and Friday, last week was very active and very successful.  I had been quoting Samuel Jackson to highlight my difficulty joining the bullish analysts and I closed last week's comments by saying:  "It really is hard to be the shepherd in this market as I see wolves everywhere, waiting to pounce on the flock as the mainstream media leads them off to slaughter.  Or maybe (hopefully) I’m just being paranoid and everything’s fine…"   

Monday I led off the week with my concerns about the spread of the flu, as the season is upon us.  That gave us 4 bullish (but hedged) plays on SVA, BCRX and CAH (2), none of which are performing so far so all of which are still good entries, especially CAH who got whacked by a DB downgrade on Thursday yet paid back $1Bn in debt on Friday and still look very good long-term.  

I had an early look at the G20s "Framework for Sustainable and Balanced Growth," and our conclusion was that, although a good plan, it sure wasn't something the markets should be all pumped up about as stability was not going to grow us into the bullish valuations that our stocks had already risen to.  I warned members that the media was misinterpreting/misrepresenting this report saying: "You can bet though, that "THEY" are acting on this information and they will be SELLSELLSELLING, as they did on Friday
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Phil's Favorites

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

 

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

Shipping containers are moved from the Fairview Cove Container Terminal In Halifax in May 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Courtesy off Adel Guitouni, University of Victoria; Cynthia Waltho, University of Victoria, and Mohammadreza Nematollahi, University of Victoria

...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

 

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

The crypto wars are hotting up. Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

The world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, ether, has been touching all-time highs in price ahead of a major upgrade of its underlying platform, ethereum. Ether is currently worth in aggregate just shy of US$500 billion (£363 billion). That’s still slightly less than half that of the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin.

...

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Zero Hedge

Another Massive Short Squeeze Leads To Spectacular 5Y Auction

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Similar to yesterday's stellar 2Y auction, which many were worried would see a drop in demand only to be silenced by the burst in demand due to a furious scramble for physical paper on the back of a record front-end short (which we previewed earlier in the week), so a quick look at just how special the 5Y TSY had become ahead of today&...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.