Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry, October 9, 2009

SACRED COW VIII STRIKES BACK

Okay, we’re never moving anywhere again? Well, never say never must be operative I suppose. So the movers are gone and the world’s most traveled and theoretically expensive household goods are here. So, sitting amid a sea of boxes I’ll be cutting this commentary short today. I mean, there’s some work to do. Let’s just look at the highlights from a few selective markets.

Last week we were honored with wonderful emails telling us how bright we were in getting out of many positions. This week, not a peep! That goes to ETF Digest Sacred Cow VIII (again): “At any given time, the market can make anyone look like an idiot—always.” And that’s the way of it this week.

Bulls would have nothing to do with selling and volume was extraordinarily light. Perhaps this was due to Monday’s non-holiday holiday. (Are there more bureaucrats and bankers trading nowadays? There seems to be more of the former in numbers anyway.) Breadth was positive.

Reall all here. >>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s MARKET COMMENT

September 16, 2009

 

Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.

Hotel California
The Eagles

Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.

Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 
 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

More Dave’s Daily here. >> 

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 12, 2009

What did I miss from yesterday? Down a hundred, up a hundred—that’s about it.

Were there really any surprises from the Fed today? Okay, they’re going to stop buying bonds and I could say “me too!” But, that said, this was an inevitable event. So, bears would argue we’re just trolling along the bottom economically and while earnings and economic data have been uniformly “better than expected” much lowered estimates. Looking ahead things aren’t great since there really aren’t any new jobs, aside from government, being created.

Bulls need some new stimulus themselves to take the rally to another level. I don’t see this yet.

Volume was good today but as you can see by the 5 minute chart in SPY routinely posted below most of it came a little before and then after the Fed announcement. The action was two-way in nature although breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day by any means. 

 

 

 

Entire Market Comment here.


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest on August 3, 2009

For more, click here >>.

in front of the train

Let’s see, should you subvert your emotions and logic by staying systematic and disciplined? Well, that’s not me standing on the tracks. I’m just sayin’

So, the "green shoots" and "better than expected" theme is winning out. That’s it, so stay off the tracks.

Now volume remains light and others, including this write-up from TheStreet.com has a different take on volume advising not to worry about it. I remain open to other views but for now this light volume is downright scary. No question about it today breadth was positive. 

 

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Dave’s Daily

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Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 23, 2009

Bull stampede, bull market, bulls, new highs

“Better than expected” once again. Like I said yesterday with bears apparently washed-out, volume light, HAL 9000s dominant and short-term debt instruments producing negative real yields, it doesn’t take much (even fantasy numbers will do) in the way of economic data or earnings reports to put bulls in stampede mode. This is just the way of it. Today it was housing data that was only marginally better than expected. But, hey, anything like this is the shot to put the herd on the run.

Read Dave’s full article here >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 16, 2009 

Mega Bear Noriel Roubini tosses in the towel saying the recession will end this year according to the Perma Bulls at CNBC. Not so fast says Roubini:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.”

 

 

…If you’ve read this blog and others (particularly Tyler Durden’s, Zero Hedge Blog) you’re aware of the embarrassing news that a Goldman Sachs employee stole their HAL 9000 high frequency trading program. Why should we care? Because the combination of these trading programs and government liquidity injections are how these companies report huge trading profits.

But what’s important is the effect of these trading systems on market behavior and action. This well-written in post by Joe Saluzzi also in Zero Hedge explains the situation. The most important aspect of it to me is the negative effect these programs have on basic trend-following systems no matter their individuality. Technically based systems need to be modified to deal with these new phenomena. One way is to join them day-trading and the other is to lengthen your views to allow for greater volatility period. 

To see all Dave’s market comment, go here >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009

Meredith Whitney

Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.

As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.

That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.

The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009

harpotypes

I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.

The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.

Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.

This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.

I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009

We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.

But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.

Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.

In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.

Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.

Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
 


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Zero Hedge

FX Volatility Nears All Time Low In "Perfect Storm Of Vol, Skew And Carry"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While the VIX still has a fair ways to go before it plumbs the all-time single-digits lows that defined the spectacularly serene equity markets in 2017, FX vol is already there: the JPMorgan Global FX volatility index has dropped to 6 year low levels, and is just shy of all time lows.

Of course, most of this stability in the FX realm is due to central banks depressing cross-asset vol; yet the more vol is pushed lower, the higher it will spring back once c...



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Phil's Favorites

American influence could take the hit as Putin, Zelenskiy try to make peace in Donbass

 

American influence could take the hit as Putin, Zelenskiy try to make peace in Donbass

Zelenskiy is facing a tough meeting with Russia’s Putin on Dec. 9. Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

Courtesy of Erik C. Nisbet, The Ohio State University and Olga Kamenchuk, The Ohio State University

President Vladimir Putin of Russia and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, are set ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Miners Indicator Attempting Multi-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Gold Mining stocks about to be sent a bullish signal they haven’t received in years? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at the Senior Miner/Junior miner (GDXJ/GDX) ratio over the past few years. Historically when the ratio is heading up, miners tend to do very well.

The ratio has created a series of lower highs just below the falling line (1), since the summer of 2016. The ratio is currently testing the strong falling resistance line and the June 2019 highs at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If the ratio succeeds in a double breakout at (2), it sends miners a long-awaited bullish message.

...

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Insider Scoop

Scott Galloway Calls For Twitter's Board To Replace 'Part-Time CEO' Jack Dorsey Amid Africa Move Plans

Courtesy of Benzinga

A shareholder in Twitter Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTR) and New York University business professor wrote an open letter Friday to the company's board calling for the replacement of CEO Jack Dorsey.

What To Know

Scott Galloway, who owns more than 330,000 shares of Twitter stock a...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Promotions

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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