Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’s ETF Digest’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 31, 2009

Even bears need a stimulant to get in their act going. It wasn’t a disastrous day but it wasn’t a good way to end the month given the sour China note. The new maxim may be: “when China catches a cold the rest of the world gets the flu”. Of course this would be a substitution for what used to begin “the US”. It may also be true to say, we just all have the flu, H1N1 or whatever.

My first business trip to China in the mid-1980s allowed me to witness ordinary citizens trading stocks on the street corner in front of the recently opened stock exchange. It was fun to watch and, if you’re a student of history, you’ll realize that’s the way things were done in London and the US more than a century ago.

More profound is the worries what a new bear market in Shanghai portends for markets where shockwaves are felt hardest—commodity, currency and emerging markets —all hit hard today.

Without posting it until the end of the commentary as usual, let’s look at the Shanghai CSI 300 Index right away. It’s the most popular of all the Chinese indexes. It’s important to remember that the constituents may have little to do with popular FXI (FSTSE Xinhua 25 Index ETF) but certainly the index has a psychological impact.

First the daily view with my annotations that include an RSI (Relative Strength Index), two moving averages, candlesticks (for visual effect) and DeMark Indicators. In the blue circles you’ll two occasions where the RSI recently has slipped below 30 indicating severely oversold conditions. Also, note DeMark counts reaching 9 sequential readings heralding some trend exhaustion both on the upside and downside. I’ve also drawn two orange support lines where I think we could find support to work off the oversold RSI but it won’t take much in that regard.

 

 

Read Dave’s full market comment here; below are a couple SPY charts.   

 

I promised we’d look at monthly charts today and that’s what we’ll do. That will give us some perspective.

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 24, 2009

I suppose it depends what you’re doing or your positions but it was a slow day. A few markets a little more stretched than others (gold and Uncle Buck) managed to reverse course some, but other than that I was drumming my fingers. It was a quiet day for economic data and we’re near the end of earnings news and summer for that matter. The latter goes by way too fast doesn’t it?

Long time bear Nouriel Roubini penned a negative outlook for the economy in this piece from FT.com. In it he discussed the risks of a “W” shaped economic future with a double dip recession likely. Many concur with this view.

Others believe the stimulus from liquidity is still in the system keeping conditions ripe for risk takers and the Fed will be loathe to upset these conditions.

Continue reading Dave’s Daily here >>.

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry, August 18, 2009

harpotypes

We might know more about market direction after this week ends. Thursday’s market moving data includes Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed survey while those are followed by Friday’s home sales data. Taken together these could move things along. Or, perhaps will just slog thru news until Labor Day when folks return to their trading posts en masse.

So we got a healthy bounce today but it didn’t undo Friday and Monday’s collective damage. We were a little short-term oversold and a bounce shouldn’t surprise even though economic and company news wasn’t great. But, the “better than expected” spin was in for retailers which frankly was laughable. And, golly, banks reported losses on credit cards were slowing (maybe because Chucky’s not shopping?) which was seen as a positive. Homebuilders disappointed (oops, scratch that), a “worse than expected” report was spun positively because more single family homes were built. I wonder about that since there are too many of them aren’t there? But that’s the way things are these days.  

 
 

More ETF Digest here >>.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s Market Comment, August 14, 2009

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Investors were just cruising along minding our own business but got clobbered on a Friday afternoon in mid-August by consumer data. After yesterday’s worse than expected jobs and retail sales, and the market rising anyway, you’d think worse than expected consumer data wouldn’t faze bulls. But, it did evidently.

There were some clues within the volume data I mentioned yesterday that appeared to show significant volume to the downside in the much followed SPY chart the previous two days. This poor reading was masked by the headline data which is why I was suspicious and mentioned it.

Today’s volume was just okay but breadth was decidedly negative. 

[For the entire Market Comment, go here >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 10, 2009

Read entire Market Comment here.

Sure, investors are fatigued and it’s August, a time when volume typically grinds lower. It does provide “stick save” opportunities for those who can and today was no different for Da Boyz.

Volume did fall off a cliff today but let’s just remember Da Boyz are on holiday, sort of, but the HAL 9000s have no such luxury. A few privates have been left behind to push whatever doodads HAL instructs. It’s almost like autopilot.

Breadth was a push basically so there isn’t much to glean from it one way or another. 

There was this article about the VIX in Bloomberg today suggesting a September sell-off. Why not? It’s happened plenty of times before.

 

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, August 4, 2009

There are crazy headlines everyday and you don’t need me to cherry pick them all but I liked the following:

“Consumer spending rises in June as incomes fall”. Reuters
“SEC to ban ‘Flash Trades’ that gives brokers edge, Schumer says”. Bloomberg
“Fed plans to strengthen bank examinations with expert teams, Tarullo say”. Bloomberg
“Duncan wields Obama’s $100 billion to make US schools more like Chicago” Bloomberg
“Financials surge, save rally.” MarketWatch
“Demand surges for clunker killer.” MarketWatch
“6 keys to investing for doomsday.” MSN Money
“Jon and Kate Gosselin have onscreen spat.” Yahoo News

I was educated in Chicago’s public schools and let me take this opportunity to express my sympathies to parents who may have school age children.

Okay, enough fun, let’s turn to markets where, with the exception of pending home sales, the news wasn’t pretty. But bulls have momentum and are focusing on news they like while ignoring or spinning that which they don’t.

Volume remains light no matter how you spin it and breadth was positive overall. 

 

Continue reading Dave Fry’s Market Comment here >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 3, 2009


Emerging Markets from Russell Fry on Vimeo.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in:

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com. 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 17, 2009

Doh!!! Tomorrow is another Treasury auction and to prepare our fearless Fed is buying while our Treasury is selling. How does that work? Two separate sets of books. The former injects reserves into the system by buying Treasury debt and counts it as an (cough) asset. While the latter sells debt which is a responsibility of the taxpayer. It’s that credit/debit deal. Make sense to you? Tony Soprano knows how this works since he cooked the books and got the vig.

Volume remains light and breadth negative to neutral.

The first two charts indicate different time views. The daily NYMO reflects only ultra-short term conditions. In that view we see markets as much oversold. But the intermediate to longer term Summation Index shows a much overbought market rolling over. The latter is a more impressive condition and warning flags are being posted.


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 8, 2009

Markets are becoming predictable but still entertaining especially if you’re a spectator. If you have some TARP money sitting on your trading desk with volume this light you can really push things around.

I know, I know, many think the government (the PPT?) is in there buying. This and the previous administration are the most interventionist and scripted I’ve ever seen. But, there’s no evidence this is occurring and they’ll never admit to it anyway. That leaves us with all that liquidity sloshing trading desks needing to play games and/or keep things propped.

Again, courtesy of Decision Point is the chart below containing the McClellan Summation Index which basically accumulates market breadth (advance/decline). With a reading over 1,000, it reflects conditions as “much overbought”.

The internal daily chart below is annotated by DeMark and RSI indicators for QQQQ. Here you can see a 9 count for DeMark and an RSI > 70 meaning short-term oversold. You can see the reaction from the previous DeMark 9 combined with an RSI > 70 in early May. Remember, these are just short-term indications that can help you time your positions more profitably.


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Phil's Favorites

Peace advocates have long been found among veterans who fought in America's wars

 

Peace advocates have long been found among veterans who fought in America's wars

Veterans for Peace gather for a Veterans Day ceremony at the Minnesota State Capitol mall, Nov. 11, 2014, in St. Paul. AP/Jim Mone

Courtesy of Michael Messner, University of Southern California – Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

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Zero Hedge

China's Credit Creation Unexpectedly Collapses At The Worst Possible Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Over the weekend, we observed that China's slumping wholesale inflation, or PPI, which is so critical for corporate profits and sparking benign, demand-driven inflation in the economy, and which in October tumbled to a three year low assuring that Chinese dumping and exports of deflation will only further depress global reflation efforts...

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Insider Scoop

6 Stocks To Watch For November 11, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Qurate Retail, Inc. (NASDAQ: QRTEA) to report quarterly earnings at $0.30 per share on revenue of $3.13 billion before the opening bell. Qurate Retail shares fell 0.2% to $9.38 in after-hours trading.
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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Indicator Sending Fresh Bearish Message, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Gold/US Dollar ratio be sending a fresh concerning message to Gold bulls this week? Joe Friday says Yes!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 8-years.

The intersection of two long-term channel met at (1) a few months ago. The ratio was testing the bottom of one as resistance and the top of another as resistance at the same time.

As the ratio was testing both channels as resistance, a sizeable bearish reversal pattern took place at (1).

Since the reversal pattern took place, the ratio has been heading lower.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The ratio is breaking below...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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