Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’s ETF Digest’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 31, 2009

Even bears need a stimulant to get in their act going. It wasn’t a disastrous day but it wasn’t a good way to end the month given the sour China note. The new maxim may be: “when China catches a cold the rest of the world gets the flu”. Of course this would be a substitution for what used to begin “the US”. It may also be true to say, we just all have the flu, H1N1 or whatever.

My first business trip to China in the mid-1980s allowed me to witness ordinary citizens trading stocks on the street corner in front of the recently opened stock exchange. It was fun to watch and, if you’re a student of history, you’ll realize that’s the way things were done in London and the US more than a century ago.

More profound is the worries what a new bear market in Shanghai portends for markets where shockwaves are felt hardest—commodity, currency and emerging markets —all hit hard today.

Without posting it until the end of the commentary as usual, let’s look at the Shanghai CSI 300 Index right away. It’s the most popular of all the Chinese indexes. It’s important to remember that the constituents may have little to do with popular FXI (FSTSE Xinhua 25 Index ETF) but certainly the index has a psychological impact.

First the daily view with my annotations that include an RSI (Relative Strength Index), two moving averages, candlesticks (for visual effect) and DeMark Indicators. In the blue circles you’ll two occasions where the RSI recently has slipped below 30 indicating severely oversold conditions. Also, note DeMark counts reaching 9 sequential readings heralding some trend exhaustion both on the upside and downside. I’ve also drawn two orange support lines where I think we could find support to work off the oversold RSI but it won’t take much in that regard.

 

 

Read Dave’s full market comment here; below are a couple SPY charts.   

 

I promised we’d look at monthly charts today and that’s what we’ll do. That will give us some perspective.

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 24, 2009

I suppose it depends what you’re doing or your positions but it was a slow day. A few markets a little more stretched than others (gold and Uncle Buck) managed to reverse course some, but other than that I was drumming my fingers. It was a quiet day for economic data and we’re near the end of earnings news and summer for that matter. The latter goes by way too fast doesn’t it?

Long time bear Nouriel Roubini penned a negative outlook for the economy in this piece from FT.com. In it he discussed the risks of a “W” shaped economic future with a double dip recession likely. Many concur with this view.

Others believe the stimulus from liquidity is still in the system keeping conditions ripe for risk takers and the Fed will be loathe to upset these conditions.

Continue reading Dave’s Daily here >>.

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry, August 18, 2009

harpotypes

We might know more about market direction after this week ends. Thursday’s market moving data includes Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed survey while those are followed by Friday’s home sales data. Taken together these could move things along. Or, perhaps will just slog thru news until Labor Day when folks return to their trading posts en masse.

So we got a healthy bounce today but it didn’t undo Friday and Monday’s collective damage. We were a little short-term oversold and a bounce shouldn’t surprise even though economic and company news wasn’t great. But, the “better than expected” spin was in for retailers which frankly was laughable. And, golly, banks reported losses on credit cards were slowing (maybe because Chucky’s not shopping?) which was seen as a positive. Homebuilders disappointed (oops, scratch that), a “worse than expected” report was spun positively because more single family homes were built. I wonder about that since there are too many of them aren’t there? But that’s the way things are these days.  

 
 

More ETF Digest here >>.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s Market Comment, August 14, 2009

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Investors were just cruising along minding our own business but got clobbered on a Friday afternoon in mid-August by consumer data. After yesterday’s worse than expected jobs and retail sales, and the market rising anyway, you’d think worse than expected consumer data wouldn’t faze bulls. But, it did evidently.

There were some clues within the volume data I mentioned yesterday that appeared to show significant volume to the downside in the much followed SPY chart the previous two days. This poor reading was masked by the headline data which is why I was suspicious and mentioned it.

Today’s volume was just okay but breadth was decidedly negative. 

[For the entire Market Comment, go here >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 10, 2009

Read entire Market Comment here.

Sure, investors are fatigued and it’s August, a time when volume typically grinds lower. It does provide “stick save” opportunities for those who can and today was no different for Da Boyz.

Volume did fall off a cliff today but let’s just remember Da Boyz are on holiday, sort of, but the HAL 9000s have no such luxury. A few privates have been left behind to push whatever doodads HAL instructs. It’s almost like autopilot.

Breadth was a push basically so there isn’t much to glean from it one way or another. 

There was this article about the VIX in Bloomberg today suggesting a September sell-off. Why not? It’s happened plenty of times before.

 

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, August 4, 2009

There are crazy headlines everyday and you don’t need me to cherry pick them all but I liked the following:

“Consumer spending rises in June as incomes fall”. Reuters
“SEC to ban ‘Flash Trades’ that gives brokers edge, Schumer says”. Bloomberg
“Fed plans to strengthen bank examinations with expert teams, Tarullo say”. Bloomberg
“Duncan wields Obama’s $100 billion to make US schools more like Chicago” Bloomberg
“Financials surge, save rally.” MarketWatch
“Demand surges for clunker killer.” MarketWatch
“6 keys to investing for doomsday.” MSN Money
“Jon and Kate Gosselin have onscreen spat.” Yahoo News

I was educated in Chicago’s public schools and let me take this opportunity to express my sympathies to parents who may have school age children.

Okay, enough fun, let’s turn to markets where, with the exception of pending home sales, the news wasn’t pretty. But bulls have momentum and are focusing on news they like while ignoring or spinning that which they don’t.

Volume remains light no matter how you spin it and breadth was positive overall. 

 

Continue reading Dave Fry’s Market Comment here >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 3, 2009


Emerging Markets from Russell Fry on Vimeo.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in:

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com. 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 17, 2009

Doh!!! Tomorrow is another Treasury auction and to prepare our fearless Fed is buying while our Treasury is selling. How does that work? Two separate sets of books. The former injects reserves into the system by buying Treasury debt and counts it as an (cough) asset. While the latter sells debt which is a responsibility of the taxpayer. It’s that credit/debit deal. Make sense to you? Tony Soprano knows how this works since he cooked the books and got the vig.

Volume remains light and breadth negative to neutral.

The first two charts indicate different time views. The daily NYMO reflects only ultra-short term conditions. In that view we see markets as much oversold. But the intermediate to longer term Summation Index shows a much overbought market rolling over. The latter is a more impressive condition and warning flags are being posted.


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 8, 2009

Markets are becoming predictable but still entertaining especially if you’re a spectator. If you have some TARP money sitting on your trading desk with volume this light you can really push things around.

I know, I know, many think the government (the PPT?) is in there buying. This and the previous administration are the most interventionist and scripted I’ve ever seen. But, there’s no evidence this is occurring and they’ll never admit to it anyway. That leaves us with all that liquidity sloshing trading desks needing to play games and/or keep things propped.

Again, courtesy of Decision Point is the chart below containing the McClellan Summation Index which basically accumulates market breadth (advance/decline). With a reading over 1,000, it reflects conditions as “much overbought”.

The internal daily chart below is annotated by DeMark and RSI indicators for QQQQ. Here you can see a 9 count for DeMark and an RSI > 70 meaning short-term oversold. You can see the reaction from the previous DeMark 9 combined with an RSI > 70 in early May. Remember, these are just short-term indications that can help you time your positions more profitably.


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Zero Hedge

Powell's Stock Trades Leaked, Show Multi-Million Sale As Market Tanked

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With leaked trades in their personal accounts already costing two Fed presidents their jobs, and a third - vice chair Richard Clarida - currently on the ropes amid speculation he will soon follow, a few weeks ago we joked that if forces within the Fed want to get rid of all the hawks, they should just leak Esther George - the Fed's last remaining uberhawk - trading record.

If the Fed wants to get rid of all the hawks, they just need to leak Esther George's etrade blotter

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) ...

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Phil's Favorites

Another Fed Bank President's Financial Disclosures Fail the Smell Test

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic

Private Banks operated by the mega Wall Street banks have an unseemly reputation. So when we opened Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s financial disclosure forms and saw that he had a financial relationship with Morgan Stanley’s Private Bank, a red flag went up immediately.

Citibank’s Private Bank was previously the subject of an investigation by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. At a h...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum's Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After a stellar start to the year, which saw its price soar to an all time high above $4,100, trouncing virtually all of its crypto peers, Ethereum has stagnated in recent weeks, with its place in the spotlight taken by bitcoin whose impressive outperformance has been the result of now confirmed speculation that a bitcoin futures ETF is coming. It also meant that what has traditionally been a close correlation between the two largest cryptos has broken in favor of the larger peer; it would also suggest that ethereum is trading about $1000 cheap vs bitcoin.

...



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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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