Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’s ETF Digest’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 31, 2009

Even bears need a stimulant to get in their act going. It wasn’t a disastrous day but it wasn’t a good way to end the month given the sour China note. The new maxim may be: “when China catches a cold the rest of the world gets the flu”. Of course this would be a substitution for what used to begin “the US”. It may also be true to say, we just all have the flu, H1N1 or whatever.

My first business trip to China in the mid-1980s allowed me to witness ordinary citizens trading stocks on the street corner in front of the recently opened stock exchange. It was fun to watch and, if you’re a student of history, you’ll realize that’s the way things were done in London and the US more than a century ago.

More profound is the worries what a new bear market in Shanghai portends for markets where shockwaves are felt hardest—commodity, currency and emerging markets —all hit hard today.

Without posting it until the end of the commentary as usual, let’s look at the Shanghai CSI 300 Index right away. It’s the most popular of all the Chinese indexes. It’s important to remember that the constituents may have little to do with popular FXI (FSTSE Xinhua 25 Index ETF) but certainly the index has a psychological impact.

First the daily view with my annotations that include an RSI (Relative Strength Index), two moving averages, candlesticks (for visual effect) and DeMark Indicators. In the blue circles you’ll two occasions where the RSI recently has slipped below 30 indicating severely oversold conditions. Also, note DeMark counts reaching 9 sequential readings heralding some trend exhaustion both on the upside and downside. I’ve also drawn two orange support lines where I think we could find support to work off the oversold RSI but it won’t take much in that regard.

 

 

Read Dave’s full market comment here; below are a couple SPY charts.   

 

I promised we’d look at monthly charts today and that’s what we’ll do. That will give us some perspective.

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 24, 2009

I suppose it depends what you’re doing or your positions but it was a slow day. A few markets a little more stretched than others (gold and Uncle Buck) managed to reverse course some, but other than that I was drumming my fingers. It was a quiet day for economic data and we’re near the end of earnings news and summer for that matter. The latter goes by way too fast doesn’t it?

Long time bear Nouriel Roubini penned a negative outlook for the economy in this piece from FT.com. In it he discussed the risks of a “W” shaped economic future with a double dip recession likely. Many concur with this view.

Others believe the stimulus from liquidity is still in the system keeping conditions ripe for risk takers and the Fed will be loathe to upset these conditions.

Continue reading Dave’s Daily here >>.

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry, August 18, 2009

harpotypes

We might know more about market direction after this week ends. Thursday’s market moving data includes Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed survey while those are followed by Friday’s home sales data. Taken together these could move things along. Or, perhaps will just slog thru news until Labor Day when folks return to their trading posts en masse.

So we got a healthy bounce today but it didn’t undo Friday and Monday’s collective damage. We were a little short-term oversold and a bounce shouldn’t surprise even though economic and company news wasn’t great. But, the “better than expected” spin was in for retailers which frankly was laughable. And, golly, banks reported losses on credit cards were slowing (maybe because Chucky’s not shopping?) which was seen as a positive. Homebuilders disappointed (oops, scratch that), a “worse than expected” report was spun positively because more single family homes were built. I wonder about that since there are too many of them aren’t there? But that’s the way things are these days.  

 
 

More ETF Digest here >>.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s Market Comment, August 14, 2009

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Investors were just cruising along minding our own business but got clobbered on a Friday afternoon in mid-August by consumer data. After yesterday’s worse than expected jobs and retail sales, and the market rising anyway, you’d think worse than expected consumer data wouldn’t faze bulls. But, it did evidently.

There were some clues within the volume data I mentioned yesterday that appeared to show significant volume to the downside in the much followed SPY chart the previous two days. This poor reading was masked by the headline data which is why I was suspicious and mentioned it.

Today’s volume was just okay but breadth was decidedly negative. 

[For the entire Market Comment, go here >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 10, 2009

Read entire Market Comment here.

Sure, investors are fatigued and it’s August, a time when volume typically grinds lower. It does provide “stick save” opportunities for those who can and today was no different for Da Boyz.

Volume did fall off a cliff today but let’s just remember Da Boyz are on holiday, sort of, but the HAL 9000s have no such luxury. A few privates have been left behind to push whatever doodads HAL instructs. It’s almost like autopilot.

Breadth was a push basically so there isn’t much to glean from it one way or another. 

There was this article about the VIX in Bloomberg today suggesting a September sell-off. Why not? It’s happened plenty of times before.

 

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, August 4, 2009

There are crazy headlines everyday and you don’t need me to cherry pick them all but I liked the following:

“Consumer spending rises in June as incomes fall”. Reuters
“SEC to ban ‘Flash Trades’ that gives brokers edge, Schumer says”. Bloomberg
“Fed plans to strengthen bank examinations with expert teams, Tarullo say”. Bloomberg
“Duncan wields Obama’s $100 billion to make US schools more like Chicago” Bloomberg
“Financials surge, save rally.” MarketWatch
“Demand surges for clunker killer.” MarketWatch
“6 keys to investing for doomsday.” MSN Money
“Jon and Kate Gosselin have onscreen spat.” Yahoo News

I was educated in Chicago’s public schools and let me take this opportunity to express my sympathies to parents who may have school age children.

Okay, enough fun, let’s turn to markets where, with the exception of pending home sales, the news wasn’t pretty. But bulls have momentum and are focusing on news they like while ignoring or spinning that which they don’t.

Volume remains light no matter how you spin it and breadth was positive overall. 

 

Continue reading Dave Fry’s Market Comment here >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 3, 2009


Emerging Markets from Russell Fry on Vimeo.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in:

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com. 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 17, 2009

Doh!!! Tomorrow is another Treasury auction and to prepare our fearless Fed is buying while our Treasury is selling. How does that work? Two separate sets of books. The former injects reserves into the system by buying Treasury debt and counts it as an (cough) asset. While the latter sells debt which is a responsibility of the taxpayer. It’s that credit/debit deal. Make sense to you? Tony Soprano knows how this works since he cooked the books and got the vig.

Volume remains light and breadth negative to neutral.

The first two charts indicate different time views. The daily NYMO reflects only ultra-short term conditions. In that view we see markets as much oversold. But the intermediate to longer term Summation Index shows a much overbought market rolling over. The latter is a more impressive condition and warning flags are being posted.


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 8, 2009

Markets are becoming predictable but still entertaining especially if you’re a spectator. If you have some TARP money sitting on your trading desk with volume this light you can really push things around.

I know, I know, many think the government (the PPT?) is in there buying. This and the previous administration are the most interventionist and scripted I’ve ever seen. But, there’s no evidence this is occurring and they’ll never admit to it anyway. That leaves us with all that liquidity sloshing trading desks needing to play games and/or keep things propped.

Again, courtesy of Decision Point is the chart below containing the McClellan Summation Index which basically accumulates market breadth (advance/decline). With a reading over 1,000, it reflects conditions as “much overbought”.

The internal daily chart below is annotated by DeMark and RSI indicators for QQQQ. Here you can see a 9 count for DeMark and an RSI > 70 meaning short-term oversold. You can see the reaction from the previous DeMark 9 combined with an RSI > 70 in early May. Remember, these are just short-term indications that can help you time your positions more profitably.


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Zero Hedge

GM Considers Expanding Into Electric-Flying Air-Taxis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Like an elderly man wobbling into a party and trying to fit in with young kids by using "hip new lingo", General Motors - days after seeing its partnership with Nikola come under fire - has now come out and said it is going to now be exploring options in the "aerial taxi" market. 

This is, of course, a market that hardly exists. But it certainly sounds cool, doesn't it?

GM will be looking...



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ValueWalk

GoodRX (GDRX) S-1 Breakdown Analysis

By Alex. Originally published at ValueWalk.

GoodRX (GDRX) filed their S-1 earlier this week. I read It so you don’t have to (but you should). Here’s a thread on what I found interesting, fascinating and down-right incredible from the company. I’m starting at zero. Follow along here.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

GDRX Facts & Figures
  • # 1 most downloaded medical app
  • 4.9M Monthly Active Users
  • 80%+ Repeat Activity
  • $20B+ in Consumer Savings
  • 150B daily pricing data point...


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Phil's Favorites

Federal Reserve hopes years of zero rates will spur inflation - but there are risks

 

Federal Reserve hopes years of zero rates will spur inflation – but there are risks

Prices tend to go up over time. SelectStock/E+ via Getty Images

By Richard S. Warr, North Carolina State University

In a healthy economy, prices tend to go up – a process called inflation.

While you might not like that as a consumer, moderate price growth is a sign of a growing economy. And, historically at least...



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Politics

Faked videos shore up false beliefs about Biden's mental health

 

Faked videos shore up false beliefs about Biden's mental health

Joe Biden faces a disinformation campaign promulgating the false notion that he is in cognitive decline. Gage Skidmore/Flickr, CC BY-SA

By Dustin Carnahan, Michigan State University

From Ronald Reagan in 1984 to Bob Dole in 1996 and even ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Breakout Triggers Buy Signal, Is $3000 Next Target?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

90-days ago this cup & handle pattern was discussed on See It Market when Gold was trading at 1717.

Fast-forward to today and Gold is up 15 percent. So it’s time for an update!

As we pointed out 90-days ago, the initial price magnet for the rally was the 261.8 Fibonacci extension that marked the 2011 high at (1).

That high has served as price resistance for nearly 9 years! …But it may be ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

 

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

Firefighters have battled camp crud before, but COVID-19 brings new risks with the potential for heart and lung damage. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

By Luke Montrose, Boise State University

Two forces of nature are colliding in the western United States, and wildland firefighters are caught in the middle.

Emerging research suggests that ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Golds bullish trend has worked well in 2020, so what is next over the immediate 3 to 6 months? Will we continue to see a golden future.

The US dollar had been strong into COVID 19, since then the FED has printing a lot of money, and they are also considering YCC (Yield Curve Control), last seen during WW2. [Note YCC lasted 9 years over WW2. WOW, that is a lot of money printing.]

The FED is now forecast to over take competing central banks balance sheets in size, and the release valve will be a falling US dollar. Therefore we should continue to see the US dollar maintain is slow leak down over the next 3 to 6 month, say on the DXY 82 to 88. 

Also, US election worries will add to the weakening of the dollar. Of course extreme chaos in W...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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