Posts Tagged ‘David Bloom’

Will the Dollar Rally When the Market Next Crashes?

Will the Dollar Rally When the Market Next Crashes?

dollar, crashingCourtesy of Washington’s Blog

The big news of the day is obviously the weak dollar.

As the headline of a must-read article in Bloomberg states: "Dollar Reaches Breaking Point as [Central] Banks Shift Reserves [Away from the Dollar]".

AFP points out that – whether or not the report from the Independent that many countries will price oil against a basket of currencies and gold in the future is true (see this and this) – confidence in the dollar is so weak that investors and banks are using it as an excuse to get out of the dollar.

Business insider notes that the S&P has fallen back to 1996 levels in dollar-adjusted terms.

Obviously, the trend line for the dollar is going down in the medium to long-term.

And yet there are strong arguments for a short-term dollar rally the next time the market crashes.

The key question is whether the dollar will behave the same way it did in the 2008 crash. The currency chief at HSBC – David Bloom- doesn’t think so:

The dollar rallied last year because we had a global liquidity crisis, but we think the rules have changed and that it will be very different this time [if there is another market sell-off].

But the dollar wasn’t the basis for a carry trade last year. If the markets crash, the dollar trade may unwind, pushing the dollar higher.

Moreover, does the fact that many top economists say that it was not really a liquidity crisis but an insolvency crisis undermine Bloom’s argument?

It is vital for investors and financial analysts to figure out whether or not Bloom is right. If he’s wrong, then getting out of the dollar to soon would be counterproductive. If he’s right, getting out too late would be suicidal.

Marc Faber actually argues that it is the other way around: when the dollar rallies, then the markets will tank, as investors will suck money out of the markets to buy the dollar.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Why stock splits disappeared from our lives

 

Why stock splits disappeared from our lives

Courtesy of 

Apple is splitting its stock 4-for-1 in two weeks. What does it mean for you? What might it mean for the broader market? And why have stock split announcements become so scarce in recent years? Did something change?

The peak of the stock split era was from 1995 through 2000. Investors were buying stocks specifically because they were about to split. It was one of the dopiest aspects of an ...



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Zero Hedge

39% Of Younger Millennials Return Home Amid Crushing Recession 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The virus-induced recession has abruptly upended younger millennials (ages 24 to 29) from living on their own, have now moved back home, according to a new survey.

The new survey, commissioned by TD Ameritrade (seen by CNBC), found that out of the 2,000 young millennials surveyed, about 39% are in the process or have already moved back home because of the c...



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The Technical Traders

Melt-Up Continues While Metals Warn of Risks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week.  Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%).  Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090.  If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.

MELT-UP WITH HIGH RISKS – PAY ATTENTION

Overall, our research team believes the current “melt-up” price action is likely to continue as global investors continue to believe the US Fed will do everything possible to save the...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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ValueWalk

Ubben Helping Investors Steer Away From Activist Investing With Inclusive Capital

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Our profile in this month’s issue of Activist Insight Monthly is with Jeff Ubben, who recently shocked the activist community by taking his environmental and socially-focused Spring Fund outside of ValueAct Capital Partners, the firm he founded two decades ago. Under a new banner – that of Inclusive Capital Partners – he will have plenty of surprises up his sleeve and may face a few himself as he battles to change the way investors think about valuing companies and steer them away from short-term ac...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Headed Back To $50, Top Of The Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver be creating a multi-decade bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern? Possible!

Did a retest of a handle breakout take place in March at (1), where Silver created one of the largest bullish reversals in decades? Possible!

Could Silver be creating a 40-year bullish pattern? Anything is possible! I humbly have to say share this; I’ve been in the business for 40-years and I haven’t seen anything like this.

Silver looks to have double topped back in 2011 at $50, which was the 1980 highs. After double topping, Silver ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

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Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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