Posts Tagged ‘decoupling theory’

The Only Thing Decoupling is Investors and their Money

The Reformed Broker Joshua Brown shatters any remaining signs of life in dying Decoupling myth. – Ilene

The Only Thing Decoupling is Investors and their Money

Hammer smashing plate of glass

Johnny Cash once ominously sang "you can run on for a long time" before reminding those whom he considered wicked that sooner or later, they’d be cut down.

US stocks were able to ignore the sovereign debt crises of southern Europe…until they weren’t. Now your Staples ($SPLS) and your Akamai Networks ($AKAM) are slaves to the macro once more. The "Decoupling Theory" fails again, just as it did in 2008 when asset prices around the world fell in tandem.

I’m gonna say this one time – Decoupling is a demonstrably false concept in the 21st century global economy. Sure, there are degrees of correlation but there is no decoupling. Everybody around the world owns pieces of everything, regardless of borders, currencies, languages or timezones.  The world has been ETF’d, we all reside in a bought-and-sold basket of instruments. China will eventually succumb to its export customers’ malaise just as surely as US and European exporters will ultimately feel the pinch of a China slowdown.

Russia, Australia, Brazil and Canada may be stronger than their ‘customer nations’ because of their vast raw materials but can they really sustain this strength should the ‘customer nations’ begin demanding less raw material from them?

Nothing is decoupled with anything anymore.  You may tell yourself that your Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF) shares have no exposure to Spain or Portugal – but if the market decides to blow itself up over Spain and Portugal, Abercrombie’s gonna get slapped around.

By the way, the same principle is in effect on bounces and rallies.  How else to explain the 420 point Dow Jones Industrial Average rally on confirmation of the Euro TARP? How else to explain the fact that every stock was up, European exposure or not?

So the next time you hear Bob Pisani on CNBC emphasize "Europe’s Close", as though the closing of their markets is like the ‘all clear’ signal for US stocks to recover, remember that the macro has reasserted its influence on our market.  And this influence doesn’t wane for any market’s closing bell.

Recoupled. Adjust your expectations accordingly. 


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Zero Hedge

How To Negotiate A Significant Discount On College Tuition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Paul Hill via EducateToCareer.org,

College tuitions are negotiable. For the past 20 years, colleges have discreetly offered discounts, when pressed or motivated to attract certain students. Competition among colleges in recent years has increased the practice of discounting significantly, and the size of discounts is greater than ever. Covid has of course, accelerated the trend. To maintain enrollment numbers, public, state run colleges have increased discounting through wh...



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Phil's Favorites

New US climate pledge: Cut emissions 50% this decade, but can Biden make it happen?

 

New US climate pledge: Cut emissions 50% this decade, but can Biden make it happen?

U.S. President Joe Biden, with presidential climate envoy John Kerry, opened the Leaders Summit on Climate April 22, 2021, by announcing new U.S. targets. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Courtesy of Morgan Bazilian, Colorado School of Mines and David Victor, University of California San Diego

President Joe Biden ...



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Digital Currencies

Coins on the Sidelines (2)

 

Coins on the Sidelines (2)

Courtesy of

There are 45 cryptocurrencies with a market cap greater than $1 billion.

At nearly $2 trillion in these 45 names alone, we’re talking serious numbers. Bitcoin is still the biggest, but it’s no longer the only kid on the block.

Cryptocurrencies have created hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air. If I’m reading this chart right, it looks like more than 60% of Bitcoin’s $1t market cap is prof...



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Politics

Why this trial was different: Experts react to guilty verdict for Derek Chauvin

 

Why this trial was different: Experts react to guilty verdict for Derek Chauvin

A woman reacts to the news that Derek Chauvin was found guilty on all three counts in the murder of George Floyd. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Courtesy of Alexis Karteron, Rutgers University - Newark ; Jeannine Bell, Indiana University; Rashad S...



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Biotech/COVID-19

No, vaccine side effects don't tell you how well your immune system will protect you from COVID-19

 

No, vaccine side effects don't tell you how well your immune system will protect you from COVID-19

It’s not a bad sign if you feel fine after your COVID-19 shot. Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Courtesy of Robert Finberg, University of Massachusetts Medical School

If someone gets a headache or feels a bit under the weather after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, it’s become common to hear them say something like “Oh, it just means my immune system is really working hard.” On the flip side...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 31 October 2020, 07:10:55 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Black line could chase the orange line..higher asset prices for 2021. Post US election pop!



Date Found: Saturday, 31 October 2020, 11:32:25 PM

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Comment: Just like gold ...


...

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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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