Posts Tagged ‘Defense Department’

How Defense Saved Second Quarter GDP

How Defense Saved Second Quarter GDP

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark of But Then What

defense spending

I bought into the meme floating around earlier today and credited fiscal stimulus with playing a part in the better Q2 GDP numbers. It turns out that government spending helped a lot but not money being spent under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. It came from the Defense Department.

From the WSJ Real Time Economics blog:

As has already been widely reported, gross domestic product shrank at a much slower pace in the first quarter — 1% — than in the two previous quarters. It is true that government spending grew at a 5.6% annual rate for the quarter, moderating the contraction in gross domestic product.

But most of that increase came from the defense sector, not the nondefense sectors targeted by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Defense spending grew at a 13.3% annual rate, in part a rebound from a 4.3 first quarter contraction. Nondefense spending grew at a 6% annual rate, contributing 0.15 percentage points to overall growth. The economy can use all of the help it can get, but it’s too soon to declare that federal spending is effectively making its way into the system.

Oh well, colour me chastised. Now should we reconsider that veto of the F-22 program?


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Phil's Favorites

Rabobank: "A Dangerous Moment"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The markets have started a new week of trading in risk off mode (when this note was heading to press) amid fading expectations that the US Congress will pass another fiscal package. With just 8 days left until the presidential election, both sides may not have a sufficient incentive to reach an agreement. Even if there is no deal in the coming days, a fiscal stimulus is still likely to be agreed after the election to support businesses and households as the US is struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, President Trump’s chief of staff openly admitted that the US is “not going to control” the pandemic and instead will focus on “proper mitigation factors”, such as vaccines and treatments. Former Vice President Biden s...



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Zero Hedge

Rabobank: "A Dangerous Moment"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The markets have started a new week of trading in risk off mode (when this note was heading to press) amid fading expectations that the US Congress will pass another fiscal package. With just 8 days left until the presidential election, both sides may not have a sufficient incentive to reach an agreement. Even if there is no deal in the coming days, a fiscal stimulus is still likely to be agreed after the election to support businesses and households as the US is struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, President Trump’s chief of staff openly admitted that the US is “not going to control” the pandemic and instead will focus on “proper mitigation factors”, such as vaccines and treatments. Former Vice President Biden s...



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ValueWalk

Trump Will Deliver Stunning Upset: Polls Are Tightening

By insidermonkey. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This is my second follow-up article about the presidential election polls and predictions about Donald Trump losing and the election results. You can read the last article here.

Polls are usually accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections. There are two exceptions. When the outcome of the election depends on the results of a single state like Florida and there are only a few thousand votes separating the both candidates. The other exception is when the respondents of a poll don’t reveal their true intentions to the pollsters. This is what happened four years ago. Poll aggregators like Fivethirtyeight failed miserabl...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

 

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

A girl wearing a mask walks down a street in the Corona neighborhood of Queens on April 14, 2020 in New York City. Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ryan Malosh, University of Michigan

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has new guidance clarifying what exactly “close cont...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper/Gold Indicator Breaking Out Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Doc Copper/Gold ratio broke above a 2-year falling channel back in 2016 at (1). Following this breakout, it rallied for the next year. During that year, Copper related assets did very well!

The ratio peaked in the summer of 2018 and created a series of lower highs over the past two years.

The strength of late has the ratio attempting to break above dual resistance at (2).

If the ratio continues to push higher and succeeds in breaking out, Copper, Basic Materials (XLB), and ...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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