Posts Tagged ‘deleveraging cycle’

DEEP THOUGHTS FROM DAVID ROSENBERG

DEEP THOUGHTS FROM DAVID ROSENBERG

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Rosey was really on point yesterday with these excellent thoughts:

We realize that the nerdy economics term of “The Great Recession” has already been coined, but let’s face facts — this was not a recession, nor was it great. It was not the Great Depression, either, but it was (is, in fact) a depression. So let’s call it the “Not So Great Depression”.

Now what makes a depression different than a recession is that depressions follow a period of wild credit excess, and when the bubble bursts and the wheels begin to move in reverse, we are in a depression. A recession is a correction in real GDP in the context of a secular expansion, which is what all prior nine of them were, back to 1945. But this was not a mere blip in real GDP — it is a post-bubble credit collapse. This is not a garden-variety recession at all, which an economic downturn triggered by an inflation-fighting Fed and excessive manufacturing inventories. A depression is all about deflating asset values and contracting private sector credit. In a recession, monetary and fiscal policy works, even if the lags can be long. In a depression, they do not work. And this is what we see today.

The stock market typically rolls over shortly after the last Fed rate hike at any given cycle. That didn’t happen this time. The Fed last hiked rates in the summer of 2006 and yet the stock market didn’t peak until after the first rate CUT … that does not happen in a normal cycle.

Even with a 0% funds rate, the economy could still not turn around, and that is exactly what happened in the 1930s in the U.S. and in the 1990s in Japan. When the central bank takes rates to zero and that does not do the trick in helping the economy or the markets find the bottom, and then has to engage in an array of experimental strategies and radically expand its balance sheet, then you know you are in a depression.

Moreover, when, a year after the onset of quantitative easing, we see money velocity and the money multipliers still in decline, then you also know that the liquidity is not being re-circulated in the real economy but perhaps finding


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DEEP THOUGHTS FROM RICHARD RUSSELL

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DEEP THOUGHTS FROM RICHARD RUSSELL

economic cyclesCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Regular readers know that I am a huge fan of Richard Russell’s work.  For those who aren’t familiar with Russell, he is the author of The Dow Theory letters.   Obviously, he is a student of Dow Theory (perhaps professor is more appropriate).  Most importantly though Russell is about as experienced an investor as you’ll find on the planet.  He has lived through cycles that no one else can even remember.

I like to think that the market works on a different clock from the rest of the world.  Economic cycles are often long and drawn out.  It can be hard for humans to comprehend economic cycles because the length of an economic cycle is not based in years or months.  It can literally work on its own clock.  The current deleveraging cycle is particularly frustrating for investors because these types of recessions tend to be long and drawn out unlike your average 8-16 month recession.  A full economic cycle can be anywhere from 5 years to 25 years from peak to trough.  Humans, particularly investors, have trouble seeing past the next 5 to 25 minutes.  It’s safe to say that Mr. Russell has seen more cycles than anyone and his educational and priceless commentary is evidence of this.  I’ve included some of his notes from this latest week and highly recommend his newsletter.  His ability to grasp the big picture is truly unmatched:

Question — Russell, you seem to think this is going to be a world-class bear market. Why do you think that?

Answer — The US and its people have been borrowing and leveraging for decades or ever since WW II. There’s never been a true correction in the economy, although there have been corrections in the stock market (1973-74 and 1957-58). Consumer buying makes up 70% of the Gross National Product of the US. For the first time in decades, US consumers are dealing with massive unemployment. This is scaring them and causing them to cut back in their buying and now they are actually saving. Fear is the strongest of all human emotions, and US consumers are finally dealing with naked fear. I believe this fear will bring on years of saving and a long period


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Phil's Favorites

Passive Products and Active Users

 

Passive Products and Active Users

Courtesy of 

The 20 largest ETFs have $1.556 trillion in assets. While the indexes they track are passive, their users are anything but. Over the previous twelve months, the total trading volume in these products was a whopping $11.529 trillion.

A recent paper from ...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For October 17, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to report quarterly earnings at $1.13 per share on revenue of $9.70 billion before the opening bell. Morgan Stanley shares rose 0.9% to $43.19 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) ...


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Zero Hedge

In The Fed, We Trust?!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Part one of this article can be found HERE.

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to fill an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board. She was recently quoted by the Washington Post as follows:

“(I) would lower rates as fast, as efficiently, and as expeditiously...



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The Technical Traders

Market Trend Change Triggered Today

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

High Times Going To Return For Pot Stocks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

High times for pot stocks do not come to mind when looking at this 6-pack!

On average, these stocks have declined nearly 50% since recent highs.

Are pot stocks about to experience “High Times” again?

The large declines since recent highs has each of these stocks testing support at each (1).

If the pot stocks are to move higher, these key support lines need to hold.

Out of these six stocks, ABBV is reflecting relative strength to the others, as it has been moving higher off support the past 60-days.

...

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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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