Posts Tagged ‘DIS’

Weekly Options Call For Disney Rally

Today’s tickers: DIS, JAKK & GAME

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Shares in Disney are off 0.50% on the session at $65.50 amid declines in U.S. stocks, but trading traffic in weekly call options this morning suggests some traders are looking for the price of the underlying to reverse course in the near term. The Jul 26 ’13 $67.5 strike call options on Disney are active for a second consecutive session, with around 600 contracts traded as of 11:20 a.m. in New York. It looks like most of the calls were purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.14 apiece. The bullish position may be profitable at expiration next week should shares in Disney rally more than 3.0% over the current price of $65.50 to exceed the average breakeven point at $67.64. Yesterday afternoon, roughly 400 of the $67.5 strike calls were purchased for a premium of $0.23 each. The weekly calls expire prior to Disney’s third-quarter earnings report on August 6th.

JAKK - Jakks Pacific, Inc. – Put activity on toy producer, Jakks Pacific, Inc., today indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to continue to drop. The stock yesterday plunged 40% after the company reported a surprise second-quarter loss, forecast a loss for the full year and suspended its quarterly dividend. Shares declined another 2.6% this morning to stand at $6.81 as of 11:35 a.m. ET. Traders expecting the stock may have further to fall in the near term picked up Aug $5.0 strike calls, buying roughly 470 lots for a premium of $0.20 each during the first 10 minutes of the trading day. Buyers of the $5.0 strike calls stand ready to profit at expiration next month should shares in Jakks Pacific tumble 30% from the current price of $6.81 to breach the effective…
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Bullish Options In Play On Disney Ahead Of Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, VMED & MS

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Front month call options changing hands on Disney today suggest some traders are positioning for shares in the name to break well above recent all-time highs in the near future. The stock, up some 50% since this time last year, increased 0.45% near the open this morning to touch a record high of $65.09 after Iron Man 3, produced by Marvel Studios, a division of the Walt Disney Co., earned more than $175 million in its opening weekend in North America. Traders betting the stock pushes to fresh highs snapped up roughly 2,800 calls at the May $67.5 strike for an average premium of $0.48 apiece during the first half of the session. Call buyers make money at expiration if shares in Disney surge 4.4% over today’s high of $65.09 to top the average breakeven point at $67.98. Walt Disney Co. reports second-quarter earnings after the closing bell tomorrow.

VMED - Virgin Media, Inc. – Big prints in Virgin Media put options on Monday morning indicates at least one trader is bracing for shares in the name to potentially pull back off recent record highs. Shares in Virgin earlier today rallied 0.40% to touch a fresh all-time high of $50.31. The stock has more than doubled since this time last year and is up roughly 1600% since touching down at a 2008 financial-crisis low of $2.96. The May $50 strike put contracts traded approximately 5,000 times by midday in New York versus open interest of just 15 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased at a premium of $0.55 each, thus positioning buyers to profit in the event that VMED’s shares slip 1.7% from today’s high of $50.31 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $49.45 by expiration next week.

MS - Morgan Stanley – Shares in Morgan Stanley are on the rise…
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Weekly Calls In Play On Disney As Shares Rise To Record Highs

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, NTE & VLO

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Trading traffic in weekly call options on Disney suggests traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains, with the stock up as much as 2.2% at a new all-time high of $63.25 today on the heels of an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ with a target price of $72.00 at UBS. Shares in Disney are up nearly 50% since this time last year. Traders betting the stock pushes to fresh highs this week appear to be buying the May 03 ’13 $65 strike weekly calls. Roughly 400 contracts have changed hands versus open interest of 13 contracts as of 12:30 p.m. ET, and it looks like the bulk of the volume was purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.07 per contract. Weekly call buyers make money at expiration this week if shares in Disney increase another 2.9% over today’s high of $63.25 to top the average breakeven point at $65.07. Walt Disney Co. reports second-quarter earnings after the closing bell next Tuesday.

NTE - Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. – Buyers of bearish options on electrical components and products provider, Nam Tai Electronics, Inc., last week prior to the company’s first-quarter earnings report ahead of the open this morning are seeing big gains in the value of those contracts, with shares in the name tumbling more than 30% today to the lowest level since August of 2012. Traders last week snapped up front month put options, buying around 1,500 lots at the May $10 strike for an average premium of $0.40 each and roughly 575 puts at the May $12.5 strike at an average premium of $1.48 apiece. The sharp selloff in shares of Nam Tai today now finds the $10 and $12.5 strike put contracts changing hands at $2.40 and $5.00 apiece, respectively, as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. Overall options volume in excess of 12,000 contracts in play on NTE today is substantial versus the stock’s average…
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Bearish Options In Play At Disney

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, TFM & HOLX

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Put options on the world’s largest entertainment company are active on a morning that finds U.S. equities reversing earlier losses and moving into positive territory on favorable comments from Speaker of the House, John Boehner, regarding budget talks. Disney shares, in negative territory for much of the morning, are currently flat on the session at $48.60 as of 11:25 a.m. ET. Downside puts expiring January 2013 are the most active contracts on Disney today, with the $44 strike put changing hands upwards of 5,400 times in the first hour of the session. It looks like most of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.42 apiece. Put buyers may profit at expiration next year should shares in DIS decline more than 10% from the current price of $48.60 to breach the average breakeven price of $43.58. Put open interest of 8,335 contracts at the Jan. 2013 $44 strike is sufficient to cover today’s volume of roughly 5,400 contracts. The bulk of the previously existing positions comprising open interest were purchased on November 9th. Shares in Disney have traded above $44.00 since the end of May.

TFM - Fresh Market, Inc. – The operator of 115 food retail stores in 20 states throughout the U.S. popped up on our scanners this morning with options volume up sharply and the price of the underlying down substantially following the company’s third-quarter earnings report and a downgrade to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ with a 12-month share price target of $45.00 at Northcoast Research. Shares in Fresh Market are currently down more than 14% at $51.75 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. Front month put buying on Fresh Market suggests some traders anticipate possible further declines in the near term. The Dec. $50 strike puts attracted the most volume in the first half of the session, with more than 1,000 lots in play versus open interest of 144 contracts.…
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Finally Friday – Maybe Tomorrow the Markets Won’t Fall

Falling, falling, falling

That's all the markets have been doing lately.  As you can see from our Big Chart – it's been a pretty orderly sell-off according to our 5% rule with roughly a 4-5% drop during October with some consolidation, followed by a much steeper 4-5% drop after the election.

We're back to the point where we expect resistance at an 8% total drop as well as some bounce action where once again we'll be measuring for strong or weak bounces to determine whether or not we can get a turn again (our indicators kept us bearish last time).  Regarding the current action, I said to our Members yesterday in Chat:  

I think there is a lot of selling as people take capital gains while they can.  I think that it's very possible that it's going to be very difficult to get a proper rally into the end of the year because there are plenty of people waiting for a rally to take their gains, whether through timing or position.  The problem with this state of not knowing is it becomes prudent for people to hedge for the worst and, if someone had a 20% gain for the year and now it's 15% and they can take it off now and keep 12.75% (after 15% tax) vs possibly hitting another 5% drop and running down to 8.5% this year or possibly 7% (at 30%) if they wait until next year and there's no recovery (and the more the cliff looms the less likely recovery seems) then it almost doesn't make sense not to take the 12.75% and run.  So that's very possibly the selling pressure we see and it may continue to be relentless into the end of the year unless there is some sort of resolution or delay to the cliff. 

While we don't think the Fiscal Cliff will end up being a big deal – that doesn't stop others from panicking.  This week we've been scooping up positions they have been running away from but, if we're going to have another leg down – we'll be needing those disaster hedges (see Wednesday's post) to keep us out of trouble.  It doesn't take much to profit from a downturn, fortunately, when we use good hedges.  On Wednesday I suggested the TZA April $17/24 bull call spread for $1.40, selling the $14…
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Bearish Options In Play As Disney Shares Drop After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, VRA & PLCE

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Just six weeks ago, shares in the operator of the happiest place on earth were hitting fresh all-time highs, peaking at $53.40 in the final week of September, on the heels of an impressive 40% rally since the start of 2012. More recently, however, the stock has been edging down off the September high, sliding roughly 6% ahead of Disney’s fourth-quarter earnings report released after the close on Thursday. Shares in Walt Disney Co. gave up another 5.75% today to trade at $47.17 just before midday on the East Coast after the company posted earnings in line with expectations and sales that missed analyst estimates. The final weeks of 2012 may see shares in Disney continue to pull back by the looks of activity in far out-of-the-money put options expiring in December. Some traders snapped up bearish contracts on DIS that may be profitable if shares slip to their lowest levels since May, purchasing around 1,000 puts at the Dec. $44 strike for an average premium of $0.58 apiece. Like-minded bears picked up roughly 400 puts at the lower Dec. $43 strike for an average of $0.40 apiece, and shelled out $0.29 per contract, on average, to buy more than 425 puts at the Dec. $42 striking price. Traders long the Dec. $42 strike puts stand ready to profit at expiration next month should Disney shares drop 11.5% from the current level to settle below an average breakeven price of $41.71.

VRA - Vera Bradley, Inc. – Fresh interest in Vera Bradley call options this morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the maker of handbags and accessories to rally as the 2012 calendar year draws to a close. The stock today trades down 2.5% to stand at $26.20 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. The jump in call activity arrives four weeks ahead of Vera Bradley’s third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell on…
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General Motors Co. Call Buying In High Gear As Shares Extend Rally

 

Today’s tickers: GM, PBR & DIS

GM - General Motors Co. – Shares in the largest U.S. automaker are popping on Wednesday after the company reported third-quarter earnings that handily beat analyst expectations. The stock is up better than 8% just before midday in New York to stand at $25.15. Traders expecting shares in GM to extend gains heading into the weekend snapped up weekly calls that have two full trading sessions remaining to expiration. The most active weekly calls are the Nov. 02 ’12 $25 strike contracts, which have changed hands more than 2,800 times against open interest of 369 lots. It looks like most of the $25 calls were purchased earlier this morning for an average premium of $0.22 per contract, thus positioning buyers to profit should GM’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $25.22 at expiration this week. Intraday gains in the price of the underlying have benefited early-bird call buyers, with premium on the $25 strike contracts now up more than 115% since this morning to arrive at $0.48 per contract. Meanwhile, options players who purchased upside calls at the end of last week are seeing substantial paper profits on their positions today. Bullish traders appear to have purchased around 1,000 calls at the Nov. 02 ’12 $23.5 strike for an average premium of $0.48 apiece last Friday. Today these deep in-the-money call options are changing hands at around $1.70 each as of 12:00 p.m. ET, a more than three-fold increase in value.

PBR - Petrobras Brasileiro SA – Bearish traders are bulking up on short-dated put options on Brazilian oil and gas company, Petrobras, this morning, with shares in the name down more than 5.2% at $21.21 on Wednesday. Buyers of put options with two full trading sessions to go before expiration appear to be positioning for shares in the world’s largest deep-water oil driller to extend declines. Traders positioned to potentially profit from further selling pressure in PBR…
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Disney Options In Play Ahead Of Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, NWL & HAIN

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Light front-month call buying in Disney this morning suggests some traders may be positioning for shares in the name to rally following the Company’s second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday of next week. Shares in the operator of the Happiest Place on Earth are down 2.0% at $42.92, joining in on the broad market decline on the heels of today’s jobs report. Traders picking up the May $43, $44 and $45 strike calls may see the value of their positions increase prior to expiration should Disney’s earnings beat expectations and send the price of the underlying higher. The most active DIS contracts at present are the Oct. $47 strike calls, with 5,000 lots changing hands in the first half of the session against open interest of 1,178 positions. It looks like most of the calls were sold for a premium of $1.17 each. The trader or traders responsible for the call sale keep the full amount of premium as long as shares in Disney fail to rally above $47.00 by October expiration. Strategists may be long the stock and selling covered calls, however, if these are naked short calls, sellers of the options face unbridled losses above a breakeven share price of $48.17.

NWL - Newell Rubbermaid, Inc. – A large block of call options sold on Newell Rubbermaid launched the consumer products maker onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning. The massive trade indicates the seller of the options expects the price of the underlying to remain below $20.00 through June expiration. Shares in NWL are currently down 1.5% on the day at $18.37 as of 11:55 pm in New York. It looks like the trader responsible for the transaction sold 30,000 calls…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – NOW It’s May

SPY 5 MINUTEYesterday did not count.

Until the end of day, the volume was low and, as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the morning pump was mostly erased by the end of the day.  In fact, on the Russell and Nasdaq – it was entirely erased.  What a friggin' joke, yet no one will investigate it and few will even question it.  

As we often say at PSW – We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we know HOW the game is rigged and get to place our bets accordingly.  In my Morning Alert to Members at 10:05, my comment on the move up was: 

Not too many markets are open so super low-volume means we can pretty much ignore whatever's happening.  Some wild gyrations at the open already with AAPL popping $10 to goose the Nas and they are spiking us up and down at will on this low volume.   

At 12:02 we made our planned adjustments to our 4 active virtual portfolios, taking advantage of the big, bad spike to move to cheap June bear positions and cash out our long plays and just get generally more aggressively bearish at what we thought was going to be the top for the day.  The most aggressive move was made in our most aggressive, $25,000 Portfolio (pictured here from its 10am status BEFORE many changes were made), where we flipped our protective TNA hedge  from bullish to very bearish – shifting the balance of the portfolio much more bearish with a single move:  

TNA – $60s are now $4 so let's take that and run on 5 (1/2), as that's more than we paid for the spread and we'll ride the $63s half-covered with a stop on 5 at $3 (now $2.25).  Also, a stop on the 5 remaining $60s at $3, at which point we would reset the stop on the $63s, of course. 

Needless to say, that trade worked out huge already as the $60s all stopped out at a $3.50 average ($3,500), which is $500 more than our max potential gain on the spread and the $63 calls already finished the day at $1.10 ($1,100) for a net of $2,400 (so far) off our $1,450 entry on 4/26 – so up 65% in less than a week on the trade we used to…
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Which Way Wednesday – $3.5Tn Not Enough to Prop up Markets?

SPY WEEKLYUh-oh!

Wasn't it just 2 days ago that the EU was all set to pop the ESM to $1.25Tn and the IMF was going to add another Trillion and the Fed was talking about more QE in the $1.25Tn range, which plunged the Dollar to multi-week lows?  Shouldn't adding 6% of the entire planet's GDP in additional stimulus give us more than a one-day pop in the markets? 

As I pointed out in Monday's Morning Alert to Members – these are all just RUMORS and my conclusion in the Alert was: 

Despite the bullish turn of events (which we anticipated last week) we're more inclined to cash out our bullish trades into the excitement and press our bear bets and TOMORROW, if we're still over our levels – THEN we will scramble to add some aggressive bullish trades to our virtual portfolios.  Again, I cannot stress enough that CASH is my preferred position because this market is tough to call and you need to be very flexible and very nimble to trade it.

SPY 5 MINUTEWe proceeded as planned and, so far, we haven't had any reason to capitulate and get more bullish and that is both surprising and disappointing as this is the end of the first quarter of 2012 – if not now – when?  As David Fry notes

Monday’s rally was typical as we head toward the end of the quarter. Hedge fund performance fees are on the line and any way to boost these profits is job one. Top holdings for hedge funds include the usual suspects: AAPL, IBM, INTC, BAC, DIS, HD etc.

With little volume it’s easy for algos and hedge funds to prop stocks on little hard news. Tuesday we briefly saw more of this. Just as markets were weakening a story appeared using the Fed’s favorite oracle, the WSJ, as Fed governor Rosengren stated, “more stimulus is on the table”. Immediately HFT algos jumped and markets rose if only briefly. 

It's very exciting for us as PLCN (see Thursday's notes) went all the way up to $736 on Monday and sold off on some pretty heavy trading yesterday.  Slowly but surely, our negative premise is beginning to take shape as Piper Jaffray is finally catching up with us and noting "a sharp decline in unique visitors to Priceline's booking.com" from growth of 61 percent during the…
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Phil's Favorites

Kurds targeted in Turkish attack include thousands of female fighters who battled Islamic State

 

Kurds targeted in Turkish attack include thousands of female fighters who battled Islamic State

Courtesy of Haidar Khezri, University of Central Florida

Kurdish fighters under attack by Turkey have described President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria as a “stab in the back.”

Since bombing began on Oct. 9, Turkish military operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Syria, Washington’s staunchest and most effective allies in the war against the Islamic State, has killed at least 11 civilians...



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Zero Hedge

Uber & Out: Ride-Hailing Firms Lays Off Another 350 Staff

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

In the third round of layoffs since its IPO (and post-IPO share price plunge), Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi announced the job cuts in a company-wide email this morning.

Khosrowshahi told staff that around 350 employees across several teams within the organization, including Uber Eats, will be laid off.

All of this comes about one month after Uber laid off 435 employees across its product and engineering teams and less than three months after Uber laid off about 400 people from its marketing team. At this point, most departments at Uber have been affected by layoffs.

One wonders if, like the...



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Insider Scoop

'Wait For A Better Entry Point': Datadog Analysts Initiate Coverage Following IPO

Courtesy of Benzinga

Datadog Inc (NASDAQ: DDOG) shares got off to a hot start on the public market following the company’s IPO in September. After pricing its IPO at $27 per share, Datadog jumped nearly 50% on its first day of trading and has held onto most of those gains in the stock’s first month of trading.

This week, investors get their first taste of what Datadog underwriter...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

New Gold Bull Market? Not Until This Happens!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

After a big summer rally, Gold peaked out at $1566/oz in September.

Since then, Gold prices have been consolidating between $1475 and $1550.

So what’s happening here? Enter the Swiss Franc currency…

In today’s chart, we look at a key indicator (and correlation) for Gold. As you can see, the Swiss Franc has an uncanny resemblance to Gold.

Both Gold and the Franc are testing heavy resistance at the same time.

Until both breakout at (2), odds are low that a new Gold bull market emerges with another big rally leg higher....



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The Technical Traders

Lots of Upside Ahead for the Metals and Miners

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Palisade Radio talks with Chris as he discusses his approach to trading and why technical analysis works for him. He focuses on the chart and price action and explains why investors need to follow a trading strategy that suits their personality.

He cautions that a broad sell-off is likely when stocks move into the next bear market. This liquidation will pull everything down, including gold, for a time. Afterward, he anticipates a massive rally in the juniors.

Time Stamp References:

...



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Chart School

US Economic Review 2019Q4

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

An investor must form an opinion of the wider economic risk, here is a small sample of readtheticker.com US economy review.


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Example of the first chart in the video.


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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of ...

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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