Posts Tagged ‘DIS’

Weekly Options Call For Disney Rally

Today’s tickers: DIS, JAKK & GAME

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Shares in Disney are off 0.50% on the session at $65.50 amid declines in U.S. stocks, but trading traffic in weekly call options this morning suggests some traders are looking for the price of the underlying to reverse course in the near term. The Jul 26 ’13 $67.5 strike call options on Disney are active for a second consecutive session, with around 600 contracts traded as of 11:20 a.m. in New York. It looks like most of the calls were purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.14 apiece. The bullish position may be profitable at expiration next week should shares in Disney rally more than 3.0% over the current price of $65.50 to exceed the average breakeven point at $67.64. Yesterday afternoon, roughly 400 of the $67.5 strike calls were purchased for a premium of $0.23 each. The weekly calls expire prior to Disney’s third-quarter earnings report on August 6th.

JAKK - Jakks Pacific, Inc. – Put activity on toy producer, Jakks Pacific, Inc., today indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to continue to drop. The stock yesterday plunged 40% after the company reported a surprise second-quarter loss, forecast a loss for the full year and suspended its quarterly dividend. Shares declined another 2.6% this morning to stand at $6.81 as of 11:35 a.m. ET. Traders expecting the stock may have further to fall in the near term picked up Aug $5.0 strike calls, buying roughly 470 lots for a premium of $0.20 each during the first 10 minutes of the trading day. Buyers of the $5.0 strike calls stand ready to profit at expiration next month should shares in Jakks Pacific tumble 30% from the current price of $6.81 to breach the effective…
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Bullish Options In Play On Disney Ahead Of Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, VMED & MS

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Front month call options changing hands on Disney today suggest some traders are positioning for shares in the name to break well above recent all-time highs in the near future. The stock, up some 50% since this time last year, increased 0.45% near the open this morning to touch a record high of $65.09 after Iron Man 3, produced by Marvel Studios, a division of the Walt Disney Co., earned more than $175 million in its opening weekend in North America. Traders betting the stock pushes to fresh highs snapped up roughly 2,800 calls at the May $67.5 strike for an average premium of $0.48 apiece during the first half of the session. Call buyers make money at expiration if shares in Disney surge 4.4% over today’s high of $65.09 to top the average breakeven point at $67.98. Walt Disney Co. reports second-quarter earnings after the closing bell tomorrow.

VMED - Virgin Media, Inc. – Big prints in Virgin Media put options on Monday morning indicates at least one trader is bracing for shares in the name to potentially pull back off recent record highs. Shares in Virgin earlier today rallied 0.40% to touch a fresh all-time high of $50.31. The stock has more than doubled since this time last year and is up roughly 1600% since touching down at a 2008 financial-crisis low of $2.96. The May $50 strike put contracts traded approximately 5,000 times by midday in New York versus open interest of just 15 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased at a premium of $0.55 each, thus positioning buyers to profit in the event that VMED’s shares slip 1.7% from today’s high of $50.31 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $49.45 by expiration next week.

MS - Morgan Stanley – Shares in Morgan Stanley are on the rise…
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Weekly Calls In Play On Disney As Shares Rise To Record Highs

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, NTE & VLO

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Trading traffic in weekly call options on Disney suggests traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains, with the stock up as much as 2.2% at a new all-time high of $63.25 today on the heels of an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ with a target price of $72.00 at UBS. Shares in Disney are up nearly 50% since this time last year. Traders betting the stock pushes to fresh highs this week appear to be buying the May 03 ’13 $65 strike weekly calls. Roughly 400 contracts have changed hands versus open interest of 13 contracts as of 12:30 p.m. ET, and it looks like the bulk of the volume was purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.07 per contract. Weekly call buyers make money at expiration this week if shares in Disney increase another 2.9% over today’s high of $63.25 to top the average breakeven point at $65.07. Walt Disney Co. reports second-quarter earnings after the closing bell next Tuesday.

NTE - Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. – Buyers of bearish options on electrical components and products provider, Nam Tai Electronics, Inc., last week prior to the company’s first-quarter earnings report ahead of the open this morning are seeing big gains in the value of those contracts, with shares in the name tumbling more than 30% today to the lowest level since August of 2012. Traders last week snapped up front month put options, buying around 1,500 lots at the May $10 strike for an average premium of $0.40 each and roughly 575 puts at the May $12.5 strike at an average premium of $1.48 apiece. The sharp selloff in shares of Nam Tai today now finds the $10 and $12.5 strike put contracts changing hands at $2.40 and $5.00 apiece, respectively, as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. Overall options volume in excess of 12,000 contracts in play on NTE today is substantial versus the stock’s average…
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Bearish Options In Play At Disney

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, TFM & HOLX

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Put options on the world’s largest entertainment company are active on a morning that finds U.S. equities reversing earlier losses and moving into positive territory on favorable comments from Speaker of the House, John Boehner, regarding budget talks. Disney shares, in negative territory for much of the morning, are currently flat on the session at $48.60 as of 11:25 a.m. ET. Downside puts expiring January 2013 are the most active contracts on Disney today, with the $44 strike put changing hands upwards of 5,400 times in the first hour of the session. It looks like most of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.42 apiece. Put buyers may profit at expiration next year should shares in DIS decline more than 10% from the current price of $48.60 to breach the average breakeven price of $43.58. Put open interest of 8,335 contracts at the Jan. 2013 $44 strike is sufficient to cover today’s volume of roughly 5,400 contracts. The bulk of the previously existing positions comprising open interest were purchased on November 9th. Shares in Disney have traded above $44.00 since the end of May.

TFM - Fresh Market, Inc. – The operator of 115 food retail stores in 20 states throughout the U.S. popped up on our scanners this morning with options volume up sharply and the price of the underlying down substantially following the company’s third-quarter earnings report and a downgrade to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ with a 12-month share price target of $45.00 at Northcoast Research. Shares in Fresh Market are currently down more than 14% at $51.75 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. Front month put buying on Fresh Market suggests some traders anticipate possible further declines in the near term. The Dec. $50 strike puts attracted the most volume in the first half of the session, with more than 1,000 lots in play versus open interest of 144 contracts.…
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Finally Friday – Maybe Tomorrow the Markets Won’t Fall

Falling, falling, falling

That's all the markets have been doing lately.  As you can see from our Big Chart – it's been a pretty orderly sell-off according to our 5% rule with roughly a 4-5% drop during October with some consolidation, followed by a much steeper 4-5% drop after the election.

We're back to the point where we expect resistance at an 8% total drop as well as some bounce action where once again we'll be measuring for strong or weak bounces to determine whether or not we can get a turn again (our indicators kept us bearish last time).  Regarding the current action, I said to our Members yesterday in Chat:  

I think there is a lot of selling as people take capital gains while they can.  I think that it's very possible that it's going to be very difficult to get a proper rally into the end of the year because there are plenty of people waiting for a rally to take their gains, whether through timing or position.  The problem with this state of not knowing is it becomes prudent for people to hedge for the worst and, if someone had a 20% gain for the year and now it's 15% and they can take it off now and keep 12.75% (after 15% tax) vs possibly hitting another 5% drop and running down to 8.5% this year or possibly 7% (at 30%) if they wait until next year and there's no recovery (and the more the cliff looms the less likely recovery seems) then it almost doesn't make sense not to take the 12.75% and run.  So that's very possibly the selling pressure we see and it may continue to be relentless into the end of the year unless there is some sort of resolution or delay to the cliff. 

While we don't think the Fiscal Cliff will end up being a big deal – that doesn't stop others from panicking.  This week we've been scooping up positions they have been running away from but, if we're going to have another leg down – we'll be needing those disaster hedges (see Wednesday's post) to keep us out of trouble.  It doesn't take much to profit from a downturn, fortunately, when we use good hedges.  On Wednesday I suggested the TZA April $17/24 bull call spread for $1.40, selling the $14…
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Bearish Options In Play As Disney Shares Drop After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, VRA & PLCE

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Just six weeks ago, shares in the operator of the happiest place on earth were hitting fresh all-time highs, peaking at $53.40 in the final week of September, on the heels of an impressive 40% rally since the start of 2012. More recently, however, the stock has been edging down off the September high, sliding roughly 6% ahead of Disney’s fourth-quarter earnings report released after the close on Thursday. Shares in Walt Disney Co. gave up another 5.75% today to trade at $47.17 just before midday on the East Coast after the company posted earnings in line with expectations and sales that missed analyst estimates. The final weeks of 2012 may see shares in Disney continue to pull back by the looks of activity in far out-of-the-money put options expiring in December. Some traders snapped up bearish contracts on DIS that may be profitable if shares slip to their lowest levels since May, purchasing around 1,000 puts at the Dec. $44 strike for an average premium of $0.58 apiece. Like-minded bears picked up roughly 400 puts at the lower Dec. $43 strike for an average of $0.40 apiece, and shelled out $0.29 per contract, on average, to buy more than 425 puts at the Dec. $42 striking price. Traders long the Dec. $42 strike puts stand ready to profit at expiration next month should Disney shares drop 11.5% from the current level to settle below an average breakeven price of $41.71.

VRA - Vera Bradley, Inc. – Fresh interest in Vera Bradley call options this morning suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the maker of handbags and accessories to rally as the 2012 calendar year draws to a close. The stock today trades down 2.5% to stand at $26.20 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. The jump in call activity arrives four weeks ahead of Vera Bradley’s third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell on…
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General Motors Co. Call Buying In High Gear As Shares Extend Rally

 

Today’s tickers: GM, PBR & DIS

GM - General Motors Co. – Shares in the largest U.S. automaker are popping on Wednesday after the company reported third-quarter earnings that handily beat analyst expectations. The stock is up better than 8% just before midday in New York to stand at $25.15. Traders expecting shares in GM to extend gains heading into the weekend snapped up weekly calls that have two full trading sessions remaining to expiration. The most active weekly calls are the Nov. 02 ’12 $25 strike contracts, which have changed hands more than 2,800 times against open interest of 369 lots. It looks like most of the $25 calls were purchased earlier this morning for an average premium of $0.22 per contract, thus positioning buyers to profit should GM’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $25.22 at expiration this week. Intraday gains in the price of the underlying have benefited early-bird call buyers, with premium on the $25 strike contracts now up more than 115% since this morning to arrive at $0.48 per contract. Meanwhile, options players who purchased upside calls at the end of last week are seeing substantial paper profits on their positions today. Bullish traders appear to have purchased around 1,000 calls at the Nov. 02 ’12 $23.5 strike for an average premium of $0.48 apiece last Friday. Today these deep in-the-money call options are changing hands at around $1.70 each as of 12:00 p.m. ET, a more than three-fold increase in value.

PBR - Petrobras Brasileiro SA – Bearish traders are bulking up on short-dated put options on Brazilian oil and gas company, Petrobras, this morning, with shares in the name down more than 5.2% at $21.21 on Wednesday. Buyers of put options with two full trading sessions to go before expiration appear to be positioning for shares in the world’s largest deep-water oil driller to extend declines. Traders positioned to potentially profit from further selling pressure in PBR…
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Disney Options In Play Ahead Of Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: DIS, NWL & HAIN

DIS - Walt Disney Co. – Light front-month call buying in Disney this morning suggests some traders may be positioning for shares in the name to rally following the Company’s second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday of next week. Shares in the operator of the Happiest Place on Earth are down 2.0% at $42.92, joining in on the broad market decline on the heels of today’s jobs report. Traders picking up the May $43, $44 and $45 strike calls may see the value of their positions increase prior to expiration should Disney’s earnings beat expectations and send the price of the underlying higher. The most active DIS contracts at present are the Oct. $47 strike calls, with 5,000 lots changing hands in the first half of the session against open interest of 1,178 positions. It looks like most of the calls were sold for a premium of $1.17 each. The trader or traders responsible for the call sale keep the full amount of premium as long as shares in Disney fail to rally above $47.00 by October expiration. Strategists may be long the stock and selling covered calls, however, if these are naked short calls, sellers of the options face unbridled losses above a breakeven share price of $48.17.

NWL - Newell Rubbermaid, Inc. – A large block of call options sold on Newell Rubbermaid launched the consumer products maker onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning. The massive trade indicates the seller of the options expects the price of the underlying to remain below $20.00 through June expiration. Shares in NWL are currently down 1.5% on the day at $18.37 as of 11:55 pm in New York. It looks like the trader responsible for the transaction sold 30,000 calls…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – NOW It’s May

SPY 5 MINUTEYesterday did not count.

Until the end of day, the volume was low and, as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the morning pump was mostly erased by the end of the day.  In fact, on the Russell and Nasdaq – it was entirely erased.  What a friggin' joke, yet no one will investigate it and few will even question it.  

As we often say at PSW – We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we know HOW the game is rigged and get to place our bets accordingly.  In my Morning Alert to Members at 10:05, my comment on the move up was: 

Not too many markets are open so super low-volume means we can pretty much ignore whatever's happening.  Some wild gyrations at the open already with AAPL popping $10 to goose the Nas and they are spiking us up and down at will on this low volume.   

At 12:02 we made our planned adjustments to our 4 active virtual portfolios, taking advantage of the big, bad spike to move to cheap June bear positions and cash out our long plays and just get generally more aggressively bearish at what we thought was going to be the top for the day.  The most aggressive move was made in our most aggressive, $25,000 Portfolio (pictured here from its 10am status BEFORE many changes were made), where we flipped our protective TNA hedge  from bullish to very bearish – shifting the balance of the portfolio much more bearish with a single move:  

TNA – $60s are now $4 so let's take that and run on 5 (1/2), as that's more than we paid for the spread and we'll ride the $63s half-covered with a stop on 5 at $3 (now $2.25).  Also, a stop on the 5 remaining $60s at $3, at which point we would reset the stop on the $63s, of course. 

Needless to say, that trade worked out huge already as the $60s all stopped out at a $3.50 average ($3,500), which is $500 more than our max potential gain on the spread and the $63 calls already finished the day at $1.10 ($1,100) for a net of $2,400 (so far) off our $1,450 entry on 4/26 – so up 65% in less than a week on the trade we used to…
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Which Way Wednesday – $3.5Tn Not Enough to Prop up Markets?

SPY WEEKLYUh-oh!

Wasn't it just 2 days ago that the EU was all set to pop the ESM to $1.25Tn and the IMF was going to add another Trillion and the Fed was talking about more QE in the $1.25Tn range, which plunged the Dollar to multi-week lows?  Shouldn't adding 6% of the entire planet's GDP in additional stimulus give us more than a one-day pop in the markets? 

As I pointed out in Monday's Morning Alert to Members – these are all just RUMORS and my conclusion in the Alert was: 

Despite the bullish turn of events (which we anticipated last week) we're more inclined to cash out our bullish trades into the excitement and press our bear bets and TOMORROW, if we're still over our levels – THEN we will scramble to add some aggressive bullish trades to our virtual portfolios.  Again, I cannot stress enough that CASH is my preferred position because this market is tough to call and you need to be very flexible and very nimble to trade it.

SPY 5 MINUTEWe proceeded as planned and, so far, we haven't had any reason to capitulate and get more bullish and that is both surprising and disappointing as this is the end of the first quarter of 2012 – if not now – when?  As David Fry notes

Monday’s rally was typical as we head toward the end of the quarter. Hedge fund performance fees are on the line and any way to boost these profits is job one. Top holdings for hedge funds include the usual suspects: AAPL, IBM, INTC, BAC, DIS, HD etc.

With little volume it’s easy for algos and hedge funds to prop stocks on little hard news. Tuesday we briefly saw more of this. Just as markets were weakening a story appeared using the Fed’s favorite oracle, the WSJ, as Fed governor Rosengren stated, “more stimulus is on the table”. Immediately HFT algos jumped and markets rose if only briefly. 

It's very exciting for us as PLCN (see Thursday's notes) went all the way up to $736 on Monday and sold off on some pretty heavy trading yesterday.  Slowly but surely, our negative premise is beginning to take shape as Piper Jaffray is finally catching up with us and noting "a sharp decline in unique visitors to Priceline's booking.com" from growth of 61 percent during the…
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ValueWalk

PPP changes pass House as small businesses hit first loan deadlines

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Small businesses need all these adjustments in the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act, but there are still multiple gaps, including data collection

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

On the passage of the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act in House today, Executive Director of the Main Street Alliance Amanda Ballantyne has this to say:

Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act Addresses PPP Flaws

“The Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act is ...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 05-27-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us here at Phil's Stock World!

 

Major Topics:

00:01:40 - Yang 4 Day Work Week
00:12:21 - DIS
00:19:01 - Bonds
00:25:49 - COVID-19 Update
00:41:12 - Trading Techniques
00:45:18 - US Corporate Taxes
00:52:27 - US National Debt
01:04:36 - Beige Book
01:09:25 - Hedge Funds
01:10:08 - States Reopening
01:14:16 - May Portfolio Review
01:14:52 - STP & LTP
01:26:38 - PAA & Strategy Section
01:29:44 - CSCO
01:34:04 - LTP
01:35:18 - VIAC

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How coronavirus contact tracing works in a state Dr. Fauci praised as a model to follow

 

How coronavirus contact tracing works in a state Dr. Fauci praised as a model to follow

Pairing widespread testing with fast, effective contact tracing is considered essential for controlling the coronavirus’s spread as the U.S. passes 100,000 deaths. AP Images/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Jenny Meredith, University of South Carolina

After weeks of keeping people home to “flatten the curve,” restrictions on U.S. businesses are loosening and the coronavirus pandemic response is moving ...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Tread Water In Calm Before US-China Storm, Trump Twitter Crackdown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The S&P's remarkable stretch of posting gains in the overnight session continued for another day, with the S&P rising as high as 3,053, and last trading 9 points higher at 3,044, tracking global stocks higher, with Europe's Stoxx 600 rising 1.3% to session highs as investors weighed again increased friction between America and China and the official passage of China's National Security Law in defiance of Trump, against fresh fiscal stimulus promised by the European Union. Treasuries edged up, while the dollar was modestly lower even as traders "treaded water...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.