Posts Tagged ‘Dr. Henry Niman’

Swine Flu Update

By Ilene

Previous series of swine flu updates by me here.

Transmission of Fatal H1N1 D225G/N Accelerates Concerns

Ukraine takes measures to combat swine flu, closes all school - Kiev

Courtesy of Dr. Henry Niman, Recombinomics Commentary

Recently released H1N1 HA sequences have significantly accelerated pandemic concerns.  These sequences have either D225G, D225N, or both and produce a case fatality rate at or near 100% in many countries…. 

By the 100% fatality rate, Dr. Niman means that they are finding these changes in the tested fatal cases in some countries.  Keep in mind, these are small numbers of cases.  It does not mean that all cases with these changes prove fatal.  It might be more clear to say a large portion of the fatal cases show these changes in the infecting viruses.

[the] transmission and expansion of these fatal sequences in eastern Europe, including Russia have increased concerns, as has the "low reactor" status as determined by Mill Hill for a tested Ukraine sequence.

Some of the earliest sequences with D225G were in the United States last spring and were generally mild.  However, initial cases in the US were generally mild, which may have reflected low  viral loads infecting a naïve population…

"Low reactors" status means that the virus is not triggering the immune response expected due to changes in the structure of certain viral proteins (here, the influenza hemagglutinin proteins).  Immune responses target specific proteins and the target proteins’ structure is critical to the immune response.  Not all changes in a protein will greatly reduce its immunogenicity (ability to stimulate the immune response) but certain changes will.  The change from the wild-type (common) HA protein to the HA protein with the D225G marker appears to have this adverse effect--i.e., the altered viruses will not provoke the stronger immune response generated in response to the wild-type virus and/or the swine flu vaccine.   

These observations are cause for concern, not alarm.  The changes in the H1N1 virus are natural and predictable; Dr. Niman predicted these changes would occur.  

There already was interest in position 225 for a number of reasons.  D225N  was in seasonal H3N2 and linked to the fixing [establishment of widespread] of adamantine resistance (S31N), while D225G was in 1918 and 1919 samples and linked to a change in receptor binding domain specificities which would target subsets of cells in the lung.  In addition, the polymorphism [genetic change] was jumping from one genetic background to


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Updating the H1N1 Update

Updating the H1N1 Update

EM of swine influenza (H1N1) virus particles (virions), determined to be the cause of the

Watching and Waiting
Ukraine
Vaccines
Tamiflu Resistance
Dr. Niman vs. WHO, ECDC and CDC

by Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman at Recombinomics

Watching and Waiting

While the numbers of new cases of swine flu have been declining in many regions, including the United States, it is too early to know whether or not there will be subsequent waves of disease.

"Based on my experience with new diseases and the lessons learned from past pandemics, I think we should remain cautious and observe the evolution of the pandemic over the next six to 12 months before declaring victory," World Health Organization Director General Margaret Chan tells Swiss newspaper Le Temps. (World Health Official Says Swine Flu Still a Threat)

Although the WHO is remaining "cautious," changes in the virus’s genome that increase its virulence and resistance to Tamiflu are becoming more common.  Dr. Henry Niman, expert in flu virus evolution, believes another wave of illnesses will occur in early 2010.  In addition, he believes resistance to Tamiflu will become "fixed," similarly to how this genetic change evolved in the seasonal H1N1 virus.  (See Flu Update: Tamiflu resistance and Ukraine update, and Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt, by David Phillips.)

WHO: H1N1 swine flu pandemic will stick around for another year

The World Health Organization warned government health authorities to remain vigilant on the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, saying the virus could mutate before vaccines can help it dissipate.

The World Health Organization is confident that the H1N1 swine flu pandemic will be under control in a year’s time – however, WHO officials warned global governments to remain vigilant for any mutations in the troublesome bug.

Dr. Niman believes this wave will be more severe than the previous two--but not due to random mutations. Rather, this will result from the process of recombination. Due to recombination, increasingly greater transmission of aggressive variants (D225G, D225E and D225N) and Tamiflu-resistant viruses will occur.

Ukraine

I’ve reprinted two recent articles at Recombinomics, with my comments in blue.

The WHO Surprise on D225G / D225N H1N1 Fatalities, Recombinomics Commentary

After considering the current available virological, epidemiological and clinical findings and following discussions on an earlier draft with WHO and its European-based


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What’s new with the flu?

What’s new with the flu?

By Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman

Hospitals To Offer H1N1 Vaccines In South Korea

Tamiflu resistant swine flu virus strains, circulating along with the wild-type (more prevalent, Tamiflu sensitive) viruses, are increasing in numbers, as the pool of viruses continues to expand. This is not due to sporadic point mutations, nor is it to do a nefarious government plot. This is how nature works, and knowledge of viral evolution leads Dr. Niman to predict that the number of Tamiflu-resistant cases will continue to increase.

At the Recombinomics website, today, additional support for Dr. Niman’s theory is presented. Growing numbers in the country of resistant viruses are showing up in clusters, for instance in the Maryland/Virginia area and in Pennsylvania. These clusters of Tamiflu-resistant cases most likely reflect a larger pool of resistant viruses circulating in the U.S. and other countries. "These repeated reports of H274Y [i.e., genetic change causing Tamiflu-resistance] in geographic clusters, as well as transmission clusters, suggest that H274Y has passed a tipping point, and reports of H274Y will increase in the upcoming weeks." H1N1 Tamiflu Resistant Cluster in Pennsylvania,  

Separately, the ratio of D225G swine flu virus variant to wild-type variant may also be increasing.  As this variant may cause a more severe disease by binding in the lungs, rather than just in the upper airways, this is cause for concern. The more aggressive course of disease apparently occurring in Ukraine may be the result of an increasing ratio of a more virulent D225G virus to the wild-type virus. 

Further investigation is needed.  Because the wild-type virus binds in the upper respiratory system while the D225G variant binds in the lungs, tissue samples from individual patients should be taken from both regions in order to see more accurately how the virus is evolving.

Here are two of Dr. Niman’s recent updates discussing these developments.  For more, visit Dr. Niman at Recombinomics.

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance Crosses Tipping Point
Recombinomics Commentary 03:07
December 4, 2009

Within the past two weeks, the number of documented cases of oseltamivir resistance in H1N1 viruses has risen from 57 to 96. Around one third of these cases occurred in patients whose immune systems were severely suppressed by haematological malignancy, aggressive chemotherapy for cancer, or post-transplant treatment. The clusters in the two hospital wards should be viewed in the context of


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Flu News: D225G Follow-up

In case you missed my latest update on the flu, I’ve added to it here. – Ilene

Flu News: D225G Follow-up

By Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman

Swine Flu Precautions Continue For International Travellers

Dr. Henry Niman heads the research company Recombinomics Inc. Recombinomics has a small group of researchers who analyze the sequence data from viral samples isolated from patients diagnosed with swine flu.

I spoke with Dr. Niman last week about the evolution of the H1N1 virus as it circulates through the world’s population. These changes are natural—and Dr. Niman’s research on the subject allowed him to predict how the virus would change as infection rates increase and time goes on. The outbreak in Ukraine was initially described in many media reports as a new lung-blackening "mystery disease," leading to many false and misleading Internet stories. According to Dr. Niman, it was clear from the start that H1N1 was killing an unusually high number of previously healthy young adults. 

H1N1 infection seemed to cause more severe illness in Ukraine, and Ukraine officials asked the WHO for assistance. The WHO interfaced with Ukraine labs in Kiev and sent groups into western Ukraine to survey the problem and gather information. As part of the investigation, the WHO sent samples to Mill Hill in London, one of several regional centers that performs genetic analysis for the WHO.

Subsequently, the WHO issued several non-informative reports but held the sequences at Mill Hill for analysis. Dr. Niman wrote a number of commentaries on the rising death toll and the need to make the sequences public. He predicted the deaths would be associated with a receptor binding domain change in the wild-type H1N1 virus (the predominant virus) to a variant form, characterized by the D225G genetic marker. Wild-type H1N1 has a D at position 225 of the viral protein Hemagglutinin (HA), and is referred to as D225. The variant protein, D225G, has a genetic change causing a change in position 225 of the protein. "D" is the symbol for the aspartic acid which is present at position 225 of the wild-type protein. Glycine, symbol G, replaces aspartic acid in D225G variants. Hemagglutinin is one of two surface proteins projecting out from the surface of the virus. The function of the HA protein is to bind viral particles to susceptible cells in the host animal.

The…
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Zero Hedge

Trump's $50 Billion Farm Deal Is Fantasy After Trade War Market Shifts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Industry insiders have told South China Morning Post (SCMP) that President Trump's alleged $50 billion agriculture deal with China is merely a fantasy, used to stimulate his Farm Belt supporters ahead of an election year, and even used as a communication tool to drive the stock market to new highs. Still, the likelihood of it actually happening is very low.

SCMP notes that China has never confirmed the $50 to ...



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Phil's Favorites

What is an oligarch?

 

What is an oligarch?

Boris Yeltsin shakes hands with Russia’s most powerful businessmen in Moscow. AP Photo

Courtesy of Joel Samuels, University of South Carolina

With the impeachment hearings for President Donald Trump under way, several American diplomats and ...



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The Technical Traders

When Oil Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months. 

In Part I and ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Insider Scoop

Glass House Group Appoints Graham Farrar As President

Courtesy of Benzinga

Glass House Group, a California-based cannabis and hemp company, earlier this week appointed Graham Farrar as president.

In his new role, Graham will oversee the company’s short and long-term business strategies, budgets and operations, and report up to Glass House Group CEO Kyle Kazan.

A long-time entrepreneur and an original team member of both Sonos (NASDAQ: SONO...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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