Posts Tagged ‘Dr. Henry Niman’

Swine Flu Update

By Ilene

Previous series of swine flu updates by me here.

Transmission of Fatal H1N1 D225G/N Accelerates Concerns

Ukraine takes measures to combat swine flu, closes all school - Kiev

Courtesy of Dr. Henry Niman, Recombinomics Commentary

Recently released H1N1 HA sequences have significantly accelerated pandemic concerns.  These sequences have either D225G, D225N, or both and produce a case fatality rate at or near 100% in many countries…. 

By the 100% fatality rate, Dr. Niman means that they are finding these changes in the tested fatal cases in some countries.  Keep in mind, these are small numbers of cases.  It does not mean that all cases with these changes prove fatal.  It might be more clear to say a large portion of the fatal cases show these changes in the infecting viruses.

[the] transmission and expansion of these fatal sequences in eastern Europe, including Russia have increased concerns, as has the "low reactor" status as determined by Mill Hill for a tested Ukraine sequence.

Some of the earliest sequences with D225G were in the United States last spring and were generally mild.  However, initial cases in the US were generally mild, which may have reflected low  viral loads infecting a naïve population…

"Low reactors" status means that the virus is not triggering the immune response expected due to changes in the structure of certain viral proteins (here, the influenza hemagglutinin proteins).  Immune responses target specific proteins and the target proteins’ structure is critical to the immune response.  Not all changes in a protein will greatly reduce its immunogenicity (ability to stimulate the immune response) but certain changes will.  The change from the wild-type (common) HA protein to the HA protein with the D225G marker appears to have this adverse effect--i.e., the altered viruses will not provoke the stronger immune response generated in response to the wild-type virus and/or the swine flu vaccine.   

These observations are cause for concern, not alarm.  The changes in the H1N1 virus are natural and predictable; Dr. Niman predicted these changes would occur.  

There already was interest in position 225 for a number of reasons.  D225N  was in seasonal H3N2 and linked to the fixing [establishment of widespread] of adamantine resistance (S31N), while D225G was in 1918 and 1919 samples and linked to a change in receptor binding domain specificities which would target subsets of cells in the lung.  In addition, the polymorphism [genetic change] was jumping from one genetic background to


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Updating the H1N1 Update

Updating the H1N1 Update

EM of swine influenza (H1N1) virus particles (virions), determined to be the cause of the

Watching and Waiting
Ukraine
Vaccines
Tamiflu Resistance
Dr. Niman vs. WHO, ECDC and CDC

by Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman at Recombinomics

Watching and Waiting

While the numbers of new cases of swine flu have been declining in many regions, including the United States, it is too early to know whether or not there will be subsequent waves of disease.

"Based on my experience with new diseases and the lessons learned from past pandemics, I think we should remain cautious and observe the evolution of the pandemic over the next six to 12 months before declaring victory," World Health Organization Director General Margaret Chan tells Swiss newspaper Le Temps. (World Health Official Says Swine Flu Still a Threat)

Although the WHO is remaining "cautious," changes in the virus’s genome that increase its virulence and resistance to Tamiflu are becoming more common.  Dr. Henry Niman, expert in flu virus evolution, believes another wave of illnesses will occur in early 2010.  In addition, he believes resistance to Tamiflu will become "fixed," similarly to how this genetic change evolved in the seasonal H1N1 virus.  (See Flu Update: Tamiflu resistance and Ukraine update, and Efficacy of Roche’s Flu Drug Tamiflu In Doubt, by David Phillips.)

WHO: H1N1 swine flu pandemic will stick around for another year

The World Health Organization warned government health authorities to remain vigilant on the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, saying the virus could mutate before vaccines can help it dissipate.

The World Health Organization is confident that the H1N1 swine flu pandemic will be under control in a year’s time – however, WHO officials warned global governments to remain vigilant for any mutations in the troublesome bug.

Dr. Niman believes this wave will be more severe than the previous two--but not due to random mutations. Rather, this will result from the process of recombination. Due to recombination, increasingly greater transmission of aggressive variants (D225G, D225E and D225N) and Tamiflu-resistant viruses will occur.

Ukraine

I’ve reprinted two recent articles at Recombinomics, with my comments in blue.

The WHO Surprise on D225G / D225N H1N1 Fatalities, Recombinomics Commentary

After considering the current available virological, epidemiological and clinical findings and following discussions on an earlier draft with WHO and its European-based


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What’s new with the flu?

What’s new with the flu?

By Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman

Hospitals To Offer H1N1 Vaccines In South Korea

Tamiflu resistant swine flu virus strains, circulating along with the wild-type (more prevalent, Tamiflu sensitive) viruses, are increasing in numbers, as the pool of viruses continues to expand. This is not due to sporadic point mutations, nor is it to do a nefarious government plot. This is how nature works, and knowledge of viral evolution leads Dr. Niman to predict that the number of Tamiflu-resistant cases will continue to increase.

At the Recombinomics website, today, additional support for Dr. Niman’s theory is presented. Growing numbers in the country of resistant viruses are showing up in clusters, for instance in the Maryland/Virginia area and in Pennsylvania. These clusters of Tamiflu-resistant cases most likely reflect a larger pool of resistant viruses circulating in the U.S. and other countries. "These repeated reports of H274Y [i.e., genetic change causing Tamiflu-resistance] in geographic clusters, as well as transmission clusters, suggest that H274Y has passed a tipping point, and reports of H274Y will increase in the upcoming weeks." H1N1 Tamiflu Resistant Cluster in Pennsylvania,  

Separately, the ratio of D225G swine flu virus variant to wild-type variant may also be increasing.  As this variant may cause a more severe disease by binding in the lungs, rather than just in the upper airways, this is cause for concern. The more aggressive course of disease apparently occurring in Ukraine may be the result of an increasing ratio of a more virulent D225G virus to the wild-type virus. 

Further investigation is needed.  Because the wild-type virus binds in the upper respiratory system while the D225G variant binds in the lungs, tissue samples from individual patients should be taken from both regions in order to see more accurately how the virus is evolving.

Here are two of Dr. Niman’s recent updates discussing these developments.  For more, visit Dr. Niman at Recombinomics.

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance Crosses Tipping Point
Recombinomics Commentary 03:07
December 4, 2009

Within the past two weeks, the number of documented cases of oseltamivir resistance in H1N1 viruses has risen from 57 to 96. Around one third of these cases occurred in patients whose immune systems were severely suppressed by haematological malignancy, aggressive chemotherapy for cancer, or post-transplant treatment. The clusters in the two hospital wards should be viewed in the context of


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Flu News: D225G Follow-up

In case you missed my latest update on the flu, I’ve added to it here. – Ilene

Flu News: D225G Follow-up

By Ilene with guest expert Dr. Henry Niman

Swine Flu Precautions Continue For International Travellers

Dr. Henry Niman heads the research company Recombinomics Inc. Recombinomics has a small group of researchers who analyze the sequence data from viral samples isolated from patients diagnosed with swine flu.

I spoke with Dr. Niman last week about the evolution of the H1N1 virus as it circulates through the world’s population. These changes are natural—and Dr. Niman’s research on the subject allowed him to predict how the virus would change as infection rates increase and time goes on. The outbreak in Ukraine was initially described in many media reports as a new lung-blackening "mystery disease," leading to many false and misleading Internet stories. According to Dr. Niman, it was clear from the start that H1N1 was killing an unusually high number of previously healthy young adults. 

H1N1 infection seemed to cause more severe illness in Ukraine, and Ukraine officials asked the WHO for assistance. The WHO interfaced with Ukraine labs in Kiev and sent groups into western Ukraine to survey the problem and gather information. As part of the investigation, the WHO sent samples to Mill Hill in London, one of several regional centers that performs genetic analysis for the WHO.

Subsequently, the WHO issued several non-informative reports but held the sequences at Mill Hill for analysis. Dr. Niman wrote a number of commentaries on the rising death toll and the need to make the sequences public. He predicted the deaths would be associated with a receptor binding domain change in the wild-type H1N1 virus (the predominant virus) to a variant form, characterized by the D225G genetic marker. Wild-type H1N1 has a D at position 225 of the viral protein Hemagglutinin (HA), and is referred to as D225. The variant protein, D225G, has a genetic change causing a change in position 225 of the protein. "D" is the symbol for the aspartic acid which is present at position 225 of the wild-type protein. Glycine, symbol G, replaces aspartic acid in D225G variants. Hemagglutinin is one of two surface proteins projecting out from the surface of the virus. The function of the HA protein is to bind viral particles to susceptible cells in the host animal.

The…
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Phil's Favorites

Utilities are starting to invest in big batteries instead of building new power plants

 

Utilities are starting to invest in big batteries instead of building new power plants

This is what a 5-megawatt, lithium-ion energy storage system looks like. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Coutesy of Jeremiah Johnson, North Carolina State University and Joseph F. DeCarolis, North Carolina State University

Due to their decreasing costs, ...



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Zero Hedge

Elon Musk Takes Out $50 Million in New Loans, Mortgaging Five Homes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

We were one of the very first to speculate that Elon Musk had mortgaged 5 of his homes in late January, when we highlighted research by an internet sleuth on Musk's personal financial situation. According to public records cited by Tesla skeptic EVent Horizon and laid out in a timeline on Sutori in late January, Elon Musk looked as though he had leveraged some of his personal real estate.

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ValueWalk

KHC To Be Bought Out By Berkshire: Here Is Why Its A Possibility

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing buyer beware of consumer staples sellers; Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ:STMP) and The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) blowups; Will Buffett buy KHC?; Is the #3G model flawed?; Asia Wealth Summit; Theranos.

I’m sending out today’s email early because there’s so much juicy/timely stuff…

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Giant Topping Pattern Could Be Forming, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The first fact of the day; The long-term trend for tech remains up and the decline into the lows on Christmas Eve DID NOT break this trend!

This chart looks at NDX 100 ETF (QQQ) on a weekly basis over the past 14-years. For the past decade, since the lows in late 2009, QQQ has remained inside of rising channel (1). As you can see the decline into the end of the year lows, did nothing more than test support, which held and a strong rally has followed!

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Insider Scoop

Salesforce.com's Q4 Report Should Trigger Higher Valuation, Says Bullish Oppenheimer

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



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Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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