Posts Tagged ‘EXC’

Technical Tuesday – 50 DMAs Will Grade Us Pass or FAIL!

BIG day today!

As you can see from the Big Chart, we are testing the 50 day moving averages on the Dow (12,746), S&P (1,347), Nasdaq (2,920), NYSE (7,756) and the Russell (781) IF all goes well and we move up from here.  The Dow is already over and the S&P and Russell are close so we'll be watching them closely this morning to see if we should stay bullish or cash out our winners while we wait for some actual bullish news – because the rumors that are driving us higher so far are running out of steam.  

The G20 meeting drags on in day 2 and we await their announcement.  China dropped $43Bn into the IMF last night and India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico will also commit $10Bn EACH for another $40Bn and that brings the IMF's war chest up to $456Bn.  Even Turkey put up $5Bn – we're talking about an all-out Global effort here so we expect A LOT more from the big guns.  

Let's not dwell on what it means that Turkey has to bail out Europe and instead focus on Christine Lagarde's statement that the commitments demonstrate "the broad commitment of the membership to ensure the IMF has access to adequate resources to carry out its mandate in the interests of global financial stability."  So now it's up to the G20 and that means it's up to Merkel today and Bernanke tomorrow.  

Merkel faces mounting pressure to make even greater concessions, by putting Germany's financial muscle behind an integrated banking and borrowing system to keep the euro intact. The question is whether, after two years of muddling through, Europe's pre- eminent power can act quickly and decisively. "I think she will remain an incrementalist: we have not yet reached the point where it is obvious that we are hanging over the precipice," said Paul de Grauwe, a professor at the London School of Economics. "It looks again that what is going to come out is going to temporarily pacify markets until it is clear that it is not going to be sufficient."  

For those of you who don't speak Economics – "not going to be sufficient" = DOOM!!!

All of our global indexes are on quite a tear in anticipation of more bailouts/QE from the G20 this week.  If we don't get it – prepare for
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Income Virtual Portfolio – Cashing it in for an Early Retirement!

What a crazy couple of weeks.

Ka-ching is the word though as we did NOTHING – as planned back on the 18th, in our last update - as we expected the market to go down then up.  On Friday, we took our short puts off the table as we expect there is a better than average possibility that we go back down again between now and expirations (15th), so we took our short-term winners off the table.  The only move we did execute in the past two weeks, other than taking our virtual money and running, was the sale of 10 FCX July $47 puts for $1.21 ($1,120) on the 24th and those cashed out yesterday at .13, up $1,080 two weeks early so of course we take it off the table!  

Our other short July puts that were cashed out were:  

  • 20 short GLW Aug $20 calls at $1.30, out at .20 – up $2,200
  • 20 XLF July $15 puts sold for .50, out at .06 – up $880
  • 10 INTC July $22 puts sold for $1.05, out at .15 – up $900
  • 5 BA July $75 puts sold for $2.50, out at $1.40 – up $450
  • 5 DE July $77.50 puts sold for net .67, out at


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Income Virtual Portfolio – June Update – Wayyyyy Ahead! (Members Only)

Well, this is embarrassing…  

When we set up this virtual portfolio on April 9th, the idea was to create a virtual portfolio for people like my Mom, who just became a widow, and so many of her friends, who need a relatively safe place to invest their money but would rather not live off the 6% returns generated by the typical retirement fund.  Our primary goals in the virtual portfolio is A) Don't Lose Money, which is Warren Buffett's Rule #1 of investing and B) To generate a relatively steady monthly income of $4,000 against our $500,000 virtual portfolio (about 10% a year).  

Despite the fact that we have allocated less than 40% of our cash, we have accidentally made WAY too much money already and this is NOT the lesson we are trying to teach!  What happened is, this past couple of weeks, we had a really nice dip in the markets and our disaster hedges kicked in – as they are supposed to – but our other positions were already well-hedged and well positioned enough that they haven't really lost anything so we ended up far, far ahead of the curve.  While that's a good thing, obviously, the danger here is getting the wrong idea.  We got lucky – and one day we may get unlucky – so let's keep ourselves grounded and people who are just catching up need to keep in mind that this is not meant to be a get-rich quick virtual portfolio.  

If we made too much money on a dip – it's because we were OVER-hedged and that's something we will attempt NOT to do in the future.  To some extent, it's a discipline problem for me because I essentially BET that the market would go down and then I BET the market would go back up with our DIA adjustments (as well as overriding our original plan to stop out our new short puts with 30% losses).  There was a logic to it because we were only about 25% invested so we had plenty of cash to layer in bullish plays if the market did go up and they we would have rolled our protective shorts (which would have been losing) up to cover.  Instead, the shorts paid off and we didn't have enough…
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Testy Tuesday – Topping or Popping?

 Looks like we picked the wrong week to short FCX! 

Copper hit a new all-time high in Shanghai this morning (as the guy who owns 90% of London's closed for the holiday exchange supplies sold it to himself for more money than he did yesterday) and gold is back at $1,400 in the futures and that should give us a better entry on FCX puts than we expected for round 2 but Paul Krugman has me worried now that maybe commodity prices are just high because the World hasn't got enough of them to go around.  Usually Paul and I agree but i think he may be discounting the effect of a 10% decline in the dollar a little too much – which is understandable as he is still arguing for more stimulus while I'm arguing that the way they are stimulating now is causing this problem and can not and should not be sustained.  

Still, we have to be pragmatic.  That's why, this weekend, I posted our "Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2011" as a follow-on to the "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" ideas of the 11th and, in the week between the two, we had bullish bets on  HMY, XLF, CAKE, TNA, IWM, CCJ, CHK, EXC, TNA, XLF, UNG, GLD, AAPL, GLW, TOT and AXP – which I had mentioned on the 19th in the weekend post "It's Never too Early to Predict the Future."  Just because I think there's going to be a disaster doesn't mean we can't go with the flow while we wait, right?  

We don't have to like the market to buy it above our breakout lines but we do need to keep in mind that this is a very thin rally that is very likely nothing but window dressing aimed at dragging money off the sidelines so the IBanks who have been propping up the markets can, once again, stick the retail shareholders with the bag as they load up on puts (watch the VIX to confirm) and crash the markets once again.  I've seen it happen in 1999, I saw it happen in 2008 and, both times, the rally lasted longer than seemed logical but the smart play was to hit and run – not to leave your money on the table but
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Weekend Reading – It’s Never Too Early to Predict the Future!

 Barron’s already has the 2011 Outlook on the Cover.  

outlook timelin

We were discussing the generally bullish in Member Chat and Barfinger said "So, Phil, what is your response to the bullish preview?"   That was a great question because it made me think.  Does he expect a "rebuttal"?  I can understand that as I’ve been fairly bearish but let’s not confuse caution (I called for a cash out when the Dow hit 11,200 in early November, it peaked at 11,444 on the 5th and closed Friday at 11,491) with bearishness – it’s just that my now 45 days of running around saying "the sky is falling" while it stays in place does make me seem like a perma-bear.  

The "October Overbought Eight" was my first bearish virtual portfolio since April 28th’s "Hedging for Disaster – 5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" (and it did, and they did).  THAT was a bearish outlook!  We are not that bearish here, otherwise it would have been the easiest thing in the World to re-up those plays for the new year.  We expect a correction, but hopefully not the kind we had between May 4th and July 2nd, where the Dow dropped 1,600 points in just over 2 months.  We are HOPING for a nice 20% pullback off the 15% gain from 9,800 to 11,270 back to the 11,000 line and holding that would make us very bullish going into next year.  

That would be 1,180 on the S&P (the declining 200 dma) and just 5% down from Friday’s close – THAT’s how bearish I am!  Where we are now is simply where the 5% Rule told us we’d be back on May 5th, where the chart pointed out that 1,240 is 20% off the upper, non-spike consolidation at 1,550 that marked the high for the S&P.  20% is the most powerful level in the 5% Rule and that’s why it’s been safer to wait and see how this line resolves than place long-term bets in either direction into the slow and volatile holidays.

Obviously, I am fairly convinced that Global "leaders" are making all sorts of policy mistakes handling the economy and I do believe it will all end in disaster but that does NOT mean I am market bearish.  

Think if it this way:  If you come across a
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Defending Your Virtual Portfolio With Dividends – Q4 (Members Only)

In uncertain markets, dividends can give you a critical investing edge.

As you can see from the chart on the left, just mindlessly investing in dividend-paying stocks can give you more than a 2:1 annual advantage in your investments

Of course, here at PSW, we teach the art of selling options premiums – something that turns virtually any stock into a "dividend" payer.  For example, MSFT is only a small, 2% dividend-payer but a fairly solid cash-machine of a stock that we don't feel is likely to go bankrupt overnight so it makes for a nice safe staple in a long-term virtual portfolio.  But MSFT is also a very poorly-run company that hasn't grown in 20 years but we can make it a much more interesting stock by simply selling covered calls.

For example, in our August edition of Dividend Payers,  we looked at MSFT for $24.23 and we sell the Sept $24 calls for .77.  This lowered our effective basis to $23.46 and selling the call putus in no special danger – we simply agreed to sell MSFT for $24 on expiration day in September (the 17th).

The stock was called away from us, and we made a .54 profit or 2.3% of our net $23.46 cash investment in less than 30 days.  That works out to a 26% annualized ROI and we had an opportunity (as we had expected) to buy the stock again and again at $24 on Oct 4th and 5th and sell the November $24 calls for .90 for a net $23.10 re-entry and ANOTHER 3.8% GAIN if we are called away at $24 or greater on Nov 19th.  Doesn't that beat waiting a whole quarter for your 1% dividend checks?  

Of course, you can optimize all this with timing and we favor stocks that are on sale – this is just a very simple example of how our most basic options strategy can drastically boost your annual returns on any stock in your virtual portfolio.

Let's say you don't want to mess around with MSFT every month.  You could have simply sold the 2012 $22.50s for $4.40 (also suggested in the August post), that dropped your net entry from $24.23 to $19.83…
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The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real With Global GDP!

$10,500.

That is the per capita average GDP for the 6Bn ape-like creatures on this planet who have pockets and purses.  Of the still hairy and pocketless apes, there are only about 1M left and they are mainly prisoners so we won’t be worrying about them but it would be nice to consider the plight of our ancestors once in a while…  Anyway, so 6Bn of us fill in those last 3 images in the planetary labor pool with the vast majority of us STILL FARMING and, of course, a select group of us are still hunting and gathering and contributing very little to the GDP

None of our problems are new – as noted in this 2005 cartoon:

The United States of America with it’s highly evolved population of shopoholics has a per capita GDP of $46,381 – VERY IMPRESSIVE but we rank 6th!  Brunei does a little better than we do and Singapore is up at $50,523 (so let’s hear it for corporal punishment) and Norway (one of my top choices of countries to flee to when it all hits the fan) is at $52,561 but Luxembourgh ($78,395 – banking) and Qatar ($83,841 – oil) simply trounce us in earnings power per person.  For those of you who like to think Capitalism is all about keeping score – they must be better than you because they make more money, right?

Below the US, per capita GDP drops off fairly quickly.  Rounding out the top 10 are Switzerland ($43,007 – watches and more bankers), Hong Kong ($42,748 – don’t tell China!), Netherlands ($39,938 – legal drugs!), Ireland ($39,468 – free beer when on wellfare!) and Australia ($38,911 – beer comes in oil cans plus gigantic bouncing rats).  20th on the list is Germany at $34,212, Greece is 25th at $29,882 (but not for long), 30th is South Korea at $27,978, 40th is Slovakia at $21,245.  Lithuania comes in at 50 with $16,542 (1 ahead of Russia) and it steadies out there with emerging market star Brazil in 75th place with $10,514 and, keep in mind – that is where you FINALLY get to the average leverl of economic activity for the world. 

Another BRIC in the global wall is mighty China, with a per capita GDP of $6,567 for each of their 1.2Bn persons and India’s Billion people average out at less than half of that, at $2,941, ranking 128th and still ahead of 53…
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Bye Bye Buy List!

Oh, I have tried!

I have tried to be bullish, I have tried to get enthusiastic about this rally but I have been reviewing these picks for a few days and looking at the market, the charts, the sentiment, reading the news and studying the fundamentals and I'm OUT!  Oh, I'll be back, we'll set up a new, aggressive $100K Virtual Portfolio next week for some fun shorter-terrm plays (still keeping the conservative one for the full year) to take full advantage of this insanity but it's going to be mainly cash through the end of the month as I do not trust this rally one bit and it will be so nice to head into the easter holiday with lots of cash on the sidelines

We hit a perfect entry on Feb 8th, in our last round, and the market is up almost 9% since that day and I'm not expecting another 9% in the next 6 weeks so it's a very good time to take a break.  We were able to roll and enjoy these trades since Christmas and we will be revisiting some, maybe even keeping a few but, on the whole, I want to do what I often counsel members to do, which is follow our simple two-step process to maximizing your profits in a market rally:

  • Step 1) Take Money
  • Step 2) Run

There – isn't that simple?  Keep in mind that we LOVE all of these stocks so we'll be back in them if they go on sale and, perhaps, even if they don't and the market looks stronger through April earnings.  Meanwhile, keep in mind that these are 6-week profits so 20% is A LOT for generally conservative plays.  Not much else to talk about – let's just see how many of these suckers are worth keeping (noted in green):

AET (12/21 – $34.04, 1/9 – $32.70, 1/31 – $29.97, 3/18 – $33.24) They could not have done better for us, staying right in range and giving us 4 excellent sales but health care is passing this weekend and that's too wild for us to stick with.  Our last batch is right on target:

  • Apr $33 calls sold for $2.40, now .40 – up 83%
  • Apr $30 puts sold for $1.50, now .02 - up 99%
  • 2012 $25/35 bull call


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The Buy List – Q1 2010 (Members Only)

 

Well we finally hit our levels!

Fundamentally, I still don't buy this rally but, technically, we could go up and up from here.  We discussed in chat yesterday how we may be in a pattern similar to 2003-7 where we came out of the dot com crash and 9/11, which took the market lower than it should have and then government stimulus took us higher than we should have been.  Sure it all ended badly but there was a really good ride up in between.  HOWERVER, 2004, which is about where we would be now, was a choppy and downtrending year.  That is not a problem for our buy/write strategy as long as we keep our heads and scale into our positions.

Obviously we can't rely on patterns to simply keep repeating themselves.  We could have another terrorist attack, we could have more stimulus or maybe both in our future but, until we see the patten broken, we can play for a similar move.  Our buy/write strategy is ideal for this as it's a conservative play that gives us 15-20% downside protection.  Combine this with our usual strategy to scale into positons along with some sensible disaster hedges and we can build a nice, bullish virtual portfolio for 2010.  Keep in mind we don't fear the upside with buy/writes as our "worst case" there is we get called away with a nice profit.  

I put up our latest Watch List on Dec 22nd, following through from our bullish lists of September 6thOctober 8th and Nov 24th.  These are the bullish plays that form the bulk of our virtual portfolios and that sometimes gets lost in our weekly short-term trading.  It was a lot like shooting fish in a barrel, picking winners since September (we had our last Buy List on July 11th our first since the bottom in March, which was followed by the more conservatively mixed $100K Virtual Portfolio that we used from April through July, when we were worried the market would be choppy (it was).  As always, our active lists are found under the Virtual Portfolio Tab near the top of our pages - always check there for recent updates.

We did…
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Elan Reversals Indicate Bearish Sentiment

Today’s tickers: ELN, NOK, WYE, ELX, GERN, VALE, NVDA & EXC

ELN – The neuroscience-based biotechnology company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after a massive bearish reversal was initiated on the stock. Shares are currently lower by more than 5% to $6.59. It looks as though one trader sold 30,500 calls at the January 2010 10 strike price for 50 cents apiece in order to finance the purchase of 30,500 puts at the January 5.0 strike for 74 cents per contract. The net cost of getting long the protective put options amounts to 24 cents. We note that the existing open interest present at both strike prices exceeds the volume traded today. But, it does not appear that this trade represents an attempt to close a previously established position. – Elan Corporation PLC

NOK– The manufacturer of mobile devices has experienced a share price decline of more than 3% to stand at $14.55. We observed a number of bearish trades by investors active on the stock today amid a rating initiated as ‘underperform’ by analysts at BMO Capital Markets. Traders appear to be bracing for significant declines in the price of the underlying as the October 11 strike price saw more than 11,000 put options purchased for 32 cents apiece. Shares would need to plummet 27% from today’s price before profits begin to amass for put-holders at the breakeven point of $10.68. Additional evidence of bearish sentiment was seen at the January 2010 20 strike price where 5,400 calls were shed for 39 cents per contract. – Nokia Corporation

WYE– A sudden frenzy of bullish call activity on the pharmaceutical company was picked up by our scanners this afternoon amid a slight 0.5% decline in shares to $45.12. It appears that the investor or investors responsible for the call action expect Wyeth’s shares to move higher. Perhaps such sentiment stems from speculation regarding the proposed Pfizer-Wyeth merger, which will be put to a shareholder vote at Wyeth on July 20, 2009. In the nearer-term August contract, it looks as though a long call position was rolled to a higher strike price resulting in fresh buying of some 5,000 calls at the August 50 strike price for 15 cents apiece. The calls appear to have been rolled from the existing open interest at the lower August 45 strike where 5,000 lots look
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Zero Hedge

Rabobank: "So, It Was Right Not To 'Buy The Dip'?"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

So it was right not to “buy the dip”. 

Virus cases continue to escalate almost everywhere that already had them, despite government lockdowns, and nobody and nowhere is proving immune. Iran’s Vice-President is infected and their ambassador to the Vatican has just died from it; now the Pope is feeling ill, if not necessarily with COVID-19.

Nigeria has its first case,...



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Phil's Favorites

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema - watching movies will never be the same again

 

Disney teams up with Secret Cinema – watching movies will never be the same again

Secret Cinema’s production of Moulin Rouge. Secret Cinema

Courtesy of Sarah Atkinson, King's College London and Helen W. Kennedy, University of Nottingham

Disney’s recent deal with the immersive experience company Secret Cinema signals a new era for the cinema industry. New film titles from the Disne...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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ValueWalk

What US companies are saying about coronavirus impact

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the coronavirus outbreak coinciding with the U.S. earnings seasons, it is only normal to expect companies to talk about this deadly virus in their earnings conference calls. In fact, many major U.S. companies not only talked about coronavirus, but also warned about its potential impact on their financial numbers.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Coronavirus impact: many US companies unclear

According to ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.