Posts Tagged ‘Fibozachi’

End of the Bull: Primary Trend Shifts as Markets Shatter

Courtesy of Fibozachi.com

While technical analysts and traders have numerous techniques for determining trends, the most basic method is the tracking of higher highs and higher lows (bullish trends), or lower highs and lower lows (bearish trends).  Tuesday’s relentless sell-off across US equity markets marked an undeniable end to the continuous series of higher lows that had been intact since July 2009.  With Tuesday’s close below 1,044.50 on the S&P 500 Cash, ‘bulltards‘ can no longer claim that the primary trend of equities remains bullish.

Traders are going to have their work cut out for them in the days and weeks ahead as a plethora of support levels remain scattered between the levels of 950 – 1,030.  Though equities appear poised for downside acceleration into Q3, remaining short may prove difficult in days ahead for most as increased volatility, erratic HFT algos and near-record market internal readings combine to create yo-yo-like equity markets.  Tuesday’s Advance / Decline line for the S&P 500 clocked in at -498, with only Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) closing higher.  As a company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets orthopaedic reconstructive implants, dental implants, spinal implants, trauma products and related surgical products … could GETCO be anticipating a large order from Mr. Market for a new hip?

Joking aside, what can we expect after such an all-encompassing technical rout?  There are essentially two ways to interpret such overwhelmingly positive / negative market internal readings: temporary exhaustion and inflection or breakaway continuation.  Normally, when US equity markets exhibit an opening dislocation (greater than +/- 1.5%) and an extreme trend day (greater than 90% A/D, VOLD, etc.) there tends to be an immediate reflex so as to offset lopsided internal measures of momentum.  And though the majority of such dislocationary instances immediately resolve themselves in the opposite price direction, the possibility of witnessing a breakaway continuation to the downside here looms large.

The only other modern instance of a -498 Advance / Decline reading on the S&P 500 occurred on September 29, 2008.  Equity markets had effectively crashed before 9/29/08 saw an -8.83% swoon; the next day closed 60 points higher, retracing 63.08% of that loss before an eight day waterfall…
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Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

In case you missed this in the Stock Chart section: 

Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene 

Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

Detail view of a 'Dangerous Current' sign in front of breaking waves

Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.

The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ‘08 – August ‘08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.…
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Fibozachi Forecast

Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene 

Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

Detail view of a 'Dangerous Current' sign in front of breaking waves

Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.

The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ’08 – August ’08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.

While the levels of 1,200 and 1,230 on the S&P 500 remain possible upside targets, we remain adamant that chasing a few percent pointsafter a blistering 70%+ rally is a fool’s game. Considering where US equity markets currently hover, it is time to either sit on your hands and wait for a fat pitch right down the middle, or (if you are nimble enough) to begin targeting stocks that may be topping at these levels. Across dozens of our proprietary screens, which scan every US stock, ETF and market group (and then some), an overwhelming amount of bearish signals registered into Friday’s close. Even more noteworthy, our screens this weekend were almost entirely devoid of anything bullish. Nevertheless, we scoured the charts to find a handful of good bullish candidates to…
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New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold

New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold

Courtesy of Chopshop at Fibozachi 

As the VIX languishes in the doldrums of teen spirit, lulling market participants to sleep before volatility comes screaming back to life, the CME & CBOE have announced a partnership that will create futures (and options on futures) for volatility indexes across a variety of asset classes.  Beginning with Oil, Gold, Corn and Soybeans, these new derivative instruments are scheduled for launch in Q3 of 2010.  Each benchmark index will be established upon the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and price series will originate from CME Group options on futures contracts via the most active electronically traded front and nearby contracts.  

[1]  CME press release

[2]  Crude Oil, Gold & Euro Volatility Index charts

[3]  CBOE primer on just what the heck the VIX actually is

CHICAGO, March 5  — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it has entered into a seven-year license agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that will allow CME Group to list futures and options on futures for volatility indexes on a variety of asset classes. These contracts will be listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of the particular exchange where the products will be traded (CME, CBOT or NYMEX). 

"Our liquid and transparent commodity and financial markets are the foundation for the creation of new indexes that customers can use to gain a view on volatility across a wide array of asset classes," said Scot Warren, CME Group Managing Director of Equity Index Products and Services. "We believe that a reliable benchmark index for volatility sentiment on contracts such as WTI Crude Oil, Corn, Soybeans and Gold will help market participants make more effective investment and hedging decisions based on their exposure to market volatility."

Terms of the license agreement between the exchanges include the following:

  • CBOE will create, own and calculate the benchmark indexes using its established CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and license use of the indexes to CME Group.
  • The benchmark indexes are scheduled to begin publishing data during the third quarter of 2010.


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10

In this 1.5.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the S&P 500 Futures (ES), the VIX,  the US Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil Futures (CL), Gold Futures (GC) and Silver Futures (SI).

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

ES 55 Minute

ES Daily 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index


VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily 

DXY (US Dollar Index

DXY 144 Minute

DXY Daily 

CL (Crude Oil Futures) 

CL 144 Minute

CL Daily 

GC (Gold Futures) 

GC 144 Minute

GC Daily 

SI (Silver Futures)

SI 144 Minute

SI Daily

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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True Trading Tips: High-Probability Intra-Day Scalp Setups Using the NYSE TICK

Technician’s Corner

Today’s market action was rather uneventful, however "lazy" days like today can often provide highly accurate and effective trading signals as a direct result of price immobility within narrow ranges.  With a practical knowledge / understanding of technical analysis, one can utilize such signals to profitably scalp futures, stocks and ETFs with ease. 

The following picture illustrates the two "gimme" trades that we discretionarily executed today as well as the logic and reasoning behind them.

 -- Please click on the snapshot below to open a large, crystal-clear picture --

 

ESH10 Mint Scalper

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09

In this 12.28.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 10 technical profiles of Gold, Silver, the US Dollar Index, the VIX, the BKX (Bank Index), GS (Golidlocks), SKF and the Cult of Cupertino, er, crAAPLe, er, (snap crackle) AAPL.

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

GC (Gold Futures)

Gold Daily 

SI (Silver Futures)

SI Daily

US Dollar Index 

DXY Daily

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index 

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

BKX: Bank Index

BKX 55 Minute 

SKF: UltraShort Financials

SKF 55 Minute

SKF Daily

GS: Goldman Sachs

GS Daily 

AAPL "Doji’s" its Way to New Highs

AAPL Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09

In this 12.21.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the ES (S&P 500 Futures), the VIX, Gold, Futures, Silver Futures, Crude Oil Futures and the US Dollar Index. 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

ES 55 Min

ES Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

GC (Gold Futures)


GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

GC Daily Semi

 

SI (Silver Futures) 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

CL (Crude Oil Futures) 

CL 55 Minute

CL Daily

 

US Dollar Index

DXY Daily

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing …

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09

In this 12.17.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present detailed technical profiles of the US Dollar Index, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the S&P 500 Cash …

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

US Dollar Index
 

DXY 55 Minute

DXY Daily

DXY Daily2

 

GC: Gold Futures
 

GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

SI: Silver Futures
 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index


VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

INX: S&P 500 Cash Index

INX 55 Minute

INX Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff

Fibozachi 

NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff

 

One of the screens that we at Fibozachi continually monitor throughout the Cash session is the NYSE TICK. 

The hackneyed cliche of "volume precedes price" is certainly true more often than not, however, it is far from foolproof.  We prefer to modify this tired cliche by saying that: "buying and selling pressure precedes price."

The snapshots below (from today’s session) clearly illustrate how this critical relationship (between the TICK and price action itself) plays out on a daily basis.

 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

 

ESH10 (S&P 500 E-Mini) with TICK Highs & Lows Overlayed onto Price

 

mint Scalper 1 Minute

 

NYSE TICK 1-Minute

 

mint TICK 1 Minute

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …

 

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.


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Phil's Favorites

60/40 is Dead. Again.

 

60/40 is Dead. Again.

Courtesy of 

Doing nothing has been one of the best strategies of the last few decades.

I’m talking about the tried and true 60/40 portfolio. 60% stocks. 40% bonds. You had to rebalance, so not exactly nothing, but as close to it as you can get.

Nothing and easy, however, aren’t the same thing. You had to sit through multiple 50% crashes in the stock market. You had to sit on your hands during periods where “everyone” was getting rich. On the spectrum of easy to impossible, doing “nothing” is closer to the latter.

How many people can stay the course for multiple decades? The investor’s principal challenge is to fight the urge to de-risk in a bear market and add risk in a bul...



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Zero Hedge

Ethereum's Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After a stellar start to the year, which saw its price soar to an all time high above $4,100, trouncing virtually all of its crypto peers, Ethereum has stagnated in recent weeks, with its place in the spotlight taken by bitcoin whose impressive outperformance has been the result of now confirmed speculation that a bitcoin futures ETF is coming. It also meant that what has traditionally been a close correlation between the two largest cryptos has broken in favor of the larger peer; it would also suggest that ethereum is trading about $1000 cheap vs bitcoin.

...



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Digital Currencies

Ethereum's Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After a stellar start to the year, which saw its price soar to an all time high above $4,100, trouncing virtually all of its crypto peers, Ethereum has stagnated in recent weeks, with its place in the spotlight taken by bitcoin whose impressive outperformance has been the result of now confirmed speculation that a bitcoin futures ETF is coming. It also meant that what has traditionally been a close correlation between the two largest cryptos has broken in favor of the larger peer; it would also suggest that ethereum is trading about $1000 cheap vs bitcoin.

...



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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Chart School

Gold getting ready to move

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

By Xmas 2021 the DEM's must set a foundation for their run in US Mid Terms late in 2022. The DEM's have a few narrative problems, but one they wish to avoid is a 'stock market crash'. They must produce enough juice for the economy to hold up into the mid term elections.

In short it is more debt, a  higher debt ceiling, and more debt for the FED to buy, a larger balance sheet for the FED. This means hard currency remains in a uptrend and higher prices will be soon upon us.





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...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.