Posts Tagged ‘Fibozachi’

End of the Bull: Primary Trend Shifts as Markets Shatter

Courtesy of Fibozachi.com

While technical analysts and traders have numerous techniques for determining trends, the most basic method is the tracking of higher highs and higher lows (bullish trends), or lower highs and lower lows (bearish trends).  Tuesday’s relentless sell-off across US equity markets marked an undeniable end to the continuous series of higher lows that had been intact since July 2009.  With Tuesday’s close below 1,044.50 on the S&P 500 Cash, ‘bulltards‘ can no longer claim that the primary trend of equities remains bullish.

Traders are going to have their work cut out for them in the days and weeks ahead as a plethora of support levels remain scattered between the levels of 950 – 1,030.  Though equities appear poised for downside acceleration into Q3, remaining short may prove difficult in days ahead for most as increased volatility, erratic HFT algos and near-record market internal readings combine to create yo-yo-like equity markets.  Tuesday’s Advance / Decline line for the S&P 500 clocked in at -498, with only Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) closing higher.  As a company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets orthopaedic reconstructive implants, dental implants, spinal implants, trauma products and related surgical products … could GETCO be anticipating a large order from Mr. Market for a new hip?

Joking aside, what can we expect after such an all-encompassing technical rout?  There are essentially two ways to interpret such overwhelmingly positive / negative market internal readings: temporary exhaustion and inflection or breakaway continuation.  Normally, when US equity markets exhibit an opening dislocation (greater than +/- 1.5%) and an extreme trend day (greater than 90% A/D, VOLD, etc.) there tends to be an immediate reflex so as to offset lopsided internal measures of momentum.  And though the majority of such dislocationary instances immediately resolve themselves in the opposite price direction, the possibility of witnessing a breakaway continuation to the downside here looms large.

The only other modern instance of a -498 Advance / Decline reading on the S&P 500 occurred on September 29, 2008.  Equity markets had effectively crashed before 9/29/08 saw an -8.83% swoon; the next day closed 60 points higher, retracing 63.08% of that loss before an eight day waterfall…
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Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

In case you missed this in the Stock Chart section: 

Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene 

Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

Detail view of a 'Dangerous Current' sign in front of breaking waves

Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.

The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ‘08 – August ‘08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.…
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Fibozachi Forecast

Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene 

Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

Detail view of a 'Dangerous Current' sign in front of breaking waves

Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.

The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ’08 – August ’08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.

While the levels of 1,200 and 1,230 on the S&P 500 remain possible upside targets, we remain adamant that chasing a few percent pointsafter a blistering 70%+ rally is a fool’s game. Considering where US equity markets currently hover, it is time to either sit on your hands and wait for a fat pitch right down the middle, or (if you are nimble enough) to begin targeting stocks that may be topping at these levels. Across dozens of our proprietary screens, which scan every US stock, ETF and market group (and then some), an overwhelming amount of bearish signals registered into Friday’s close. Even more noteworthy, our screens this weekend were almost entirely devoid of anything bullish. Nevertheless, we scoured the charts to find a handful of good bullish candidates to…
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New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold

New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold

Courtesy of Chopshop at Fibozachi 

As the VIX languishes in the doldrums of teen spirit, lulling market participants to sleep before volatility comes screaming back to life, the CME & CBOE have announced a partnership that will create futures (and options on futures) for volatility indexes across a variety of asset classes.  Beginning with Oil, Gold, Corn and Soybeans, these new derivative instruments are scheduled for launch in Q3 of 2010.  Each benchmark index will be established upon the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and price series will originate from CME Group options on futures contracts via the most active electronically traded front and nearby contracts.  

[1]  CME press release

[2]  Crude Oil, Gold & Euro Volatility Index charts

[3]  CBOE primer on just what the heck the VIX actually is

CHICAGO, March 5  — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it has entered into a seven-year license agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that will allow CME Group to list futures and options on futures for volatility indexes on a variety of asset classes. These contracts will be listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of the particular exchange where the products will be traded (CME, CBOT or NYMEX). 

"Our liquid and transparent commodity and financial markets are the foundation for the creation of new indexes that customers can use to gain a view on volatility across a wide array of asset classes," said Scot Warren, CME Group Managing Director of Equity Index Products and Services. "We believe that a reliable benchmark index for volatility sentiment on contracts such as WTI Crude Oil, Corn, Soybeans and Gold will help market participants make more effective investment and hedging decisions based on their exposure to market volatility."

Terms of the license agreement between the exchanges include the following:

  • CBOE will create, own and calculate the benchmark indexes using its established CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and license use of the indexes to CME Group.
  • The benchmark indexes are scheduled to begin publishing data during the third quarter of 2010.


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10

In this 1.5.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the S&P 500 Futures (ES), the VIX,  the US Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil Futures (CL), Gold Futures (GC) and Silver Futures (SI).

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

ES 55 Minute

ES Daily 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index


VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily 

DXY (US Dollar Index

DXY 144 Minute

DXY Daily 

CL (Crude Oil Futures) 

CL 144 Minute

CL Daily 

GC (Gold Futures) 

GC 144 Minute

GC Daily 

SI (Silver Futures)

SI 144 Minute

SI Daily

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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True Trading Tips: High-Probability Intra-Day Scalp Setups Using the NYSE TICK

Technician’s Corner

Today’s market action was rather uneventful, however "lazy" days like today can often provide highly accurate and effective trading signals as a direct result of price immobility within narrow ranges.  With a practical knowledge / understanding of technical analysis, one can utilize such signals to profitably scalp futures, stocks and ETFs with ease. 

The following picture illustrates the two "gimme" trades that we discretionarily executed today as well as the logic and reasoning behind them.

 -- Please click on the snapshot below to open a large, crystal-clear picture --

 

ESH10 Mint Scalper

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09

In this 12.28.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 10 technical profiles of Gold, Silver, the US Dollar Index, the VIX, the BKX (Bank Index), GS (Golidlocks), SKF and the Cult of Cupertino, er, crAAPLe, er, (snap crackle) AAPL.

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

GC (Gold Futures)

Gold Daily 

SI (Silver Futures)

SI Daily

US Dollar Index 

DXY Daily

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index 

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

BKX: Bank Index

BKX 55 Minute 

SKF: UltraShort Financials

SKF 55 Minute

SKF Daily

GS: Goldman Sachs

GS Daily 

AAPL "Doji’s" its Way to New Highs

AAPL Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09

In this 12.21.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the ES (S&P 500 Futures), the VIX, Gold, Futures, Silver Futures, Crude Oil Futures and the US Dollar Index. 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

ES 55 Min

ES Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

GC (Gold Futures)


GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

GC Daily Semi

 

SI (Silver Futures) 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

CL (Crude Oil Futures) 

CL 55 Minute

CL Daily

 

US Dollar Index

DXY Daily

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing …

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09

In this 12.17.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present detailed technical profiles of the US Dollar Index, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the S&P 500 Cash …

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

US Dollar Index
 

DXY 55 Minute

DXY Daily

DXY Daily2

 

GC: Gold Futures
 

GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

SI: Silver Futures
 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index


VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

INX: S&P 500 Cash Index

INX 55 Minute

INX Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff

Fibozachi 

NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff

 

One of the screens that we at Fibozachi continually monitor throughout the Cash session is the NYSE TICK. 

The hackneyed cliche of "volume precedes price" is certainly true more often than not, however, it is far from foolproof.  We prefer to modify this tired cliche by saying that: "buying and selling pressure precedes price."

The snapshots below (from today’s session) clearly illustrate how this critical relationship (between the TICK and price action itself) plays out on a daily basis.

 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

 

ESH10 (S&P 500 E-Mini) with TICK Highs & Lows Overlayed onto Price

 

mint Scalper 1 Minute

 

NYSE TICK 1-Minute

 

mint TICK 1 Minute

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …

 

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.


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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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