Posts Tagged ‘Food prices’

Stock World Weekly 2-27-11

Here’s the latest edition of Stock World Weekly:  Irresistible Forces Meet Immovable Objects. - Ilene 

Excerpt:

On Saturday, February 27, the Security Council of the United Nations (UN) voted unanimously to institute sanctions on Libya, including travel bans and freezing the assets of Muammar al-Gaddafi and others associated with his regime. Protests have dragged into their twelfth day, and protestors refuse to yield in the face of utterly horrific retaliation by Gaddafi’s loyal forces. U.S. ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice said, “When atrocities are committed against innocents, the international community must act with one voice – and tonight it has.”  

The Telegraph reported over the weekend that Gaddafi apparently made good on his threats to trigger a civil war, using irregular forces largely composed of hired mercenaries to launch a counterattack against protesters. “Anywhere we go there is danger,” said one woman, a 28-year-old mother of four who asked not to be named. “All we want is food and fresh water for our children but it is impossible to find. Security is the only concern of the authorities.” 

An accurate report of the death toll is impossible to obtain at this time, but on Wednesday, Italy’s Foreign Minister, Franco Frattini said, “We believe that the estimates of about 1,000 are credible.” The situation in Libya has deteriorated since then. Multiple stories coming in from all over the country have cited dozens to hundreds of casualties in each city. It appears that Libya has slipped into the abyss of complete social breakdown and civil war.

This is just one example of the tide of popular unrest that has been unleashed in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s and other central banks’ inflationary policies. The chart below shows the U.S. Adjusted Monetary Base increasing from $1.75Tn in 2009, to $2.0Tn in 2010, and now nearing $2.3Tn, an increase of $300Bn in just two months! This represents an increase of 35% in less than 18 months. (The U.S. Monetary Base is the total amount of currency that is circulating in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits held in reserves of member banks of the Federal Reserve System.)  

Another revolt of a more peaceful nature took place in Ireland. The long-dominant Fianna Fail party was brutally rejected by Irish voters, taking just 15.1% of the vote and losing…
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Stock World Weekly

Here’s this week’s Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!  Comments welcome.  

Screen shot 2011-01-30 at 1.34.41 AM


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Mubarak’s Acts of Cowardice; Obama Calls Mubarak for 30-Minutes; Cell Service, Internet Total Shutdown; Anarchy in Cairo; How Long can Mubarak Last?

Courtesy of Mish

The situation in Egypt has gone from bad to worse. Cairo is in a state of near-anarchy and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s cowardly disruptions to the internet and cell phones have made things worse.

Egyptian citizens unable to get news on the internet or cell phones have only one place to get it now, the street.

President Obama called Mubarak in a 30-minute phone call. Obama’s message was "Ultimately, the future of Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian people."

If that was a hint, Mubarak did not get it. Instead, Cairo is in flames as protesters have turned more defiant.

Mubarak Orders Crackdown, With Revolt Sweeping Egypt

The New York Times reports Mubarak Orders Crackdown, With Revolt Sweeping Egypt

With police stations and the governing party’s headquarters in flames, and much of this crucial Middle Eastern nation in open revolt, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt deployed the nation’s military and imposed a near-total blackout on communications to save his authoritarian government of nearly 30 years.

Friday’s protests were the largest and most diverse yet, including young and old, women with Louis Vuitton bags and men in galabeyas, factory workers and film stars. All came surging out of mosques after midday prayers headed for Tahrir Square, and their clashes with the police left clouds of tear gas wafting through empty streets.

By nightfall, the protesters had burned down the ruling party’s headquarters in Cairo, and looters marched away with computers, briefcases and other equipment emblazoned with the party’s logo. Other groups assaulted the Interior Ministry and the state television headquarters, until after dark when the military occupied both buildings and regained control. At one point, the American Embassy came under attack.

Six Cairo police stations and several police cars were in flames, and stations in Suez and other cities were burning as well. Office equipment and police vehicles burned, and the police seemed to have retreated from Cairo’s main streets. Brigades of riot police officers deployed at mosques, bridges and intersections, and they battered the protesters with tear gas, water, rubber-coated bullets and, by day’s end, live ammunition.

Cairo in Near-Anarchy

The Washington Post reports Cairo in near-anarchy as protesters push to oust president

The Egyptian capital descended into near anarchy Friday night, as the government sent riot police, and then the army, to quell protests by tens of thousands of demonstrators determined to


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Food Inflation Comes To America: General Mills, Kraft And Kellogg Hike Prices On Selected Food Products

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

After denying for months that surging food prices will eventually come to the consumer, hoping that instead food companies could absorb the margin drop, sellside research is finally capitulating to the reality of what is really happening in the retail store. In a note discussing General Mills, Goldman Sachs says the company raised prices on snack bars some 7% last week. Goldman further clarifies that "this reportedly followed a comparable increase taken by K on its snack bars in mid-December. In addition, KFT has reportedly announced a 6% increase on select Planters branded nut products. We expect more price increases to be announced by the food  companies in the coming weeks." Maybe, but the Chairman sure doesn’t. And the Chairman is always 100% correct.

Other observations from Goldman on what are now seen as inevitable price increases across numerous food verticals.

These pricing actions support our Food sector view that price momentum will continue to build as 2011 progresses, driven by easing promotional spending and list price increases (see our 1/5 report, Time to embrace inflation; Upgrade Food to Neutral, GIS to buy). This should drive top-line acceleration and margin stabilization over the course of 2011. Evidence of the progression is already apparent in retail scanner data (see our 1/11 report, Progression to a ‘less bad’ promo environment continues). Scanner data is likely to continue to show a measured pace of price growth. That said, we acknowledge that the growth is likely to build gradually as the pass-through of list price hikes to retail shelves lags and the reduction of promotional spend takes time to execute.

As a reminder, in December, the food component of the CPI increased by 0.1%, the lowest amount since July…

And just to complete the circus, Goldman now views price pass throughs as a good thing. See: it resolves the margin issue. Uh, yeah. But someone should explain to Goldman that when calculating revenue, one multiples Price (P) by Volume (V). And in a stagflationary economy, and increase in P results in a more than commensurate decline in V, offsetting all margin boosts.

GIS (Buy) remains our top Food pick and snack bar price hikes reinforce our conviction. To our knowledge, Mills has now executed price increases in categories that account for roughly half of its US retail portfolio (and we think there may


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Food Riots 2011

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse  

The stunningly violent food riots in Tunisia and Algeria show just how quickly things can change.  Just a few months ago, these two northern Africa nations were considered to be very stable, very peaceful and without any major problems.  But now protesters are openly squaring off with police in the streets.  Many of the protesters are throwing "fire bombs" or are shooting fireworks at the authorities, and the police are responding with a tremendous amount of violence themselves.  In Algeria, several protesters have been killed by police and several others have actually set themselves on fire to protest the economic conditions.  In Tunisia, more than 100 people have been killed and the president of that country actually had to flee for his life.  But on a global scale, food shortages have not even gotten that bad yet.  Yes, food prices are starting to go up and food supplies are a little bit tighter right now, but much worse times than these are coming.  So what in the world are the cities of the world going to look like when we have a very serious food shortage?

Just as we saw during the food riots of 2008, when people get to the point where they can’t even feed themselves anymore, they tend to lose it.  In the video posted below, you can really feel the desperation of these young Algerians as they riot in the streets….

This next video is of the food riots in Tunisia.  You will not want to let any young children watch this video.  In fact, if watching police beat and smash protesters laying on the ground upsets you, then you might not want to watch this video either.  The massive food riots that have erupted in Tunisia have left many city streets looking like war zones and at this point it is being reported that the violence has left over 100 people dead.  The president of Tunisia has left the country because of the rioting, and an interim president has been sworn in.  It is hoped that this will help restore order.  This video is absolutely stunning….

You see, the truth is that it is not just in the United States that people are becoming angry at government.  All over the world, frustration is boiling over.  But unlike the United States, where food


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Just in case you were planning to eat next week…

Just in case you were planning to eat next week…

food pricesCourtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

The next chapter in the quantitative easing drama takes place in the ag commodity neighborhood.

Over in Britain, the Guardian posted a full-scale freakout piece tying in Bernanke’s policies to a sharp spike in food costs…

UK food prices were 9.8% higher last month than a year ago, the biggest annual increase since October 2008, according to the Office for National Statistics. Imported food prices climbed 4.5% on the year, the fastest rate since October 2009, pushing up the price of bread and margarine. Prices are likely to be pushed higher in coming months, with refined sugar reaching a record of $783.90 a tonne today.

Greg White over at Clusterstock has a very worthwhile slideshow (can’t believe I just wrote that phrase) illustrating the food cost spike by commodity.  Corn, for example, is just completely absurd and very scary if you are in the business of feeding large quantities of animals (or addicted to Crackerjacks) :

The agflation beat goes on.

Sources:

US Accused of Forcing Up World Food Prices (Guardian)

Here’s the Massive Commodities Surge etc.  (Clusterstock)

Read Also:

Food Price Inflation No Longer Theoretical (TRB)

Pic credit: Jr. Deputy Accountant 


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Marc Faber: Fed’s QE2 Could Trigger Market Correction

Marc Faber: Fed’s QE2 Could Trigger Market Correction

Courtesy of asiablues at Zero Hedge

By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discusses the potential impact of further quantitative easing (QE2) by the U.S. Federal Reserve in a Bloomberg interview on Oct. 36 (clip below).

Correction Triggered by QE2?

Faber sees Democrats--"sadly enough"--would get a shot at still retaining the majority, which would mean the monetary and fiscal policy will most likely stay on its current course.

Equity has done well in Sep. and Oct months; however, Faber thinks the markets are stretched in the inflation trade, and weak dollar, high commodity and precious metal prices, along with high equity valuations, all suggest a correction is overdue. 

Now, with QE2 being largely priced in, anything less than $1 trillion from the Fed would disappoint the markets and may trigger a correction in U.S. stocks, which could result in more quantitative easing.

But the correction should provide a buying opportunity for investors leading to an up cycle, instead of another bear market.   

Equity Better for the Next Decade

Looking at investing for the next ten years, equities, emerging economies in particular, would be a relatively better place to invest than U.S. government bonds, and cash.  However, Faber advises against financial, auto, and aircraft.  He’s been in the high tech sector and likes Microsoft (MSFT).

Precious Metals Due for Pullback

Faber is currently recommending agriculture commodities, and the accumulation of precious metals.  On precious metals, he thinks they are overdue for "some kind of correction" by year end, and expect the next leg up in 2011.    

Dollar Near An Inflection Point

Faber says dollar is oversold, while in contrast, some of the foreign currencies such as Yen and Franc are overbought.  So, an inflection point could be near for a short-term dollar rally which could temporarily push down asset prices. 

He warns investors to be very careful about shorting dollar and long assets as the trade has become quite crowded.

Expect a Strong Pullback of Chinese Economy 

Although not quite gloom and doom, Faber does expect a "strong pullback" on the Chinese economy due to its many imbalances. 

According to Faber, the 0.25% interest rate hike effective Oct. 20 by the PBoC is "meaningless," because of skyrocketing property prices, and the cost of living inflation has gone up much more than the official figure.

He notes food prices have seen high inflation, and because of low GDP per capita where food would account for a high percentage of total expenditure, Faber estimates that the typical consumer…
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Peak Everything

Peak Everything: An Interactive Look At How Much Of Everything Is Left

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

Scientific American has done a great summary of peak commodity levels as well as depletion projections for some of the most critical resources in the world including oil, gold, silver, copper, not to mention renewable water, as well as estimating general food prices over the next half century. Generally speaking, regardless of whether one believes in peak oil or not, the facts are that stores of natural resources are disappearing at an increasingly alarming pace. And instead of the world’s (formerly) richest country sponsoring R&D and basic science to find alternatives, the US government continues to focus on funding a lost Keynesian cause, debasing the dollar and perpetuating a system that will do nothing to resolve any of these ever more pressing concerns. Furthermore, as by 2020, the US will have around $23 trillion in debt (per CBO estimates), the government will be far too focused on using anywhere between 50-100% of tax revenues to cover just interest expense, than funding science and research. Then again it is probably only fitting that future generations will be saddled with not just $100 trillion in total sovereign debt, but will be running out of water, will see sea levels rising ever faster, will have no flat screen TVs, and will be using Flintstonemobiles to go from point A to point B. All so a few bankers and ultra-wealthy individuals don’t have to recognize total losses on their balance sheets filled with trillions in toxic debt.

Some key highlights from Scientific American, as well as the year in which a given resource either peaks or runs out:

Oil – 2014 Peak

The most common answer to "how much oil is left" is "depends on how hard you want to look." As easy-to-reach fields run dry, new technologies allow oil companies to tap harder-to-reach places (such as 5,500 meters under the Gulf of Mexico). Traditional statistical models of oil supply do not account for these advances, but a new approach to production forecasting explicitly incorporates multiple waves of technological improvement. Though still controversial, this multi-cyclic approach predicts that global oil production is set to peak in four years and that by the 2050s we will have pulled all but 10% of the world’s oil from the ground.

In…
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Hugh Hendry Talks The Geopolitics Of Potash, Grains And Other Scarcities On BBC Newsnight

Hugh Hendry Talks The Geopolitics Of Potash, Grains And Other Scarcities On BBC Newsnight

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

With concerns about surging food prices recently inflamed courtesy of the series of fires in Russia and the halt of grains exports out of the country, several heavy hitters have come out recently to discuss their views. One among them is the man with the best YTD performing macro hedge fund according to Bloomberg, Hugh Hendry, who appeared on BBC’s ever-informative Newsnight to discuss potash, food prices, and other scarce resources.

On whether the world is facing a massive food shortage, Hugh’s conclusion is that as long as Asia does not have a recession, things are ok, otherwise "in due course there would be great pressure on the food supply." As for Potash, Hendry says that China and Canada "hate each other [in the space]. There has been a profound game of roulette – Chinese consumption of Potash is 35% less than used in Western agriculture. At these prices, the Chinese haven’t been consuming in the manner in that they should and they risk an absolute collapse in their yields… China does have a vulnerability in feeding itself which we don’t have because we embrace potash at productive levels."

As for geopolitics, the topic arises of what African quid pro quo demands for having the most arable land should be and sending products over to China. The observation is that Africa’s bargaining position is negligible (those Goldman offices in Ethiopia, protecting the interests of the locals, are oddly missing).

All this and more in the below clip: 


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Regulations Alone Are Never Enough, But Here’s How They Can Easily Be Made Pointless

Regulations Alone Are Never Enough, But Here’s How They Can Easily Be Made Pointless

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

Obama holds a naturalization ceremony at the White House in Washington

Mr. Obama’s speech at the Cooper Union today was remarkably unsatisfying. It seemed to be given from weakness, and almost obsequious as the American President politely asked his largest campaign contributors to please stop flouting the law, defrauding the people and their customers, and spending millions per day lobbying the Congress to buy changes in the reform legislation to provide them with the ‘right regulators’ of their choice and convenient loopholes to render it ineffective.

The reform making its way through the Congress is unlikely to be effective given the process in place, despite the political kabuki dancebeing conducted by the Congress and the Banks.

The solution is to put simple and effective regulations in the hand of stronger, independent, ad highly capable regulators to bear on the financial services industry, and to understand that the regulations must evolve with a dynamicly evolving business. The idea that you can erect some impregnable and unchanging Maginot line against bank fraud is laughable, a farce.

As William K. Black disclosed in his testimony the other day, the regulators always had the power to shut down the frauds, and to resolve the financial crisis without having to give away billions. They lacked the will, and the motivation.

Banking CEO's Testify Before House On Use Of TARP Funds

You want to wipe that smirk off Lloyd Blankfein’s face? Nominate Eliot Spitzer or Elizabeth Warren to be the head of the SEC, or the CFTC, and provide them with a adequate budget and a staff of financial experts and a few experienced prosectors.

Even with strong regulations, unless you have capable and motivated regulators, there are always ways to evade the rules, especially if they are complex and provide exceptions. The simpler they are, the stronger the regulations will be, provided they are flexible enough to be amended and expanded efficiently to match the changing and dynamic nature of the industry that they are overseeing.

This is not that difficult, and these jokers are not that smart, although part of their con is to paint themselves as the smartest, the best, and practically unstoppable.

The root of the US financial crisis is always and everywhere regulatory capture, political cronyism, and fraud. It really is that simple.

Barack Obama should to listen…
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Zero Hedge

Realtors Urge Fed To Stop Hiking As Existing Home Sales Slump Most Since 2014

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Despite a modestly better than expected 1.4% MoM rise (after September's 3.4% slump), existing home sales slumped 5.1% year-over-year - the biggest drop since 2014.

A blip higher in SAAR...

Regionally, The West is suffering the most...

  • Existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 1.5% to an annual rate of...



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Phil's Favorites

A Frightful Fall for FAANG Investors

 

A Frightful Fall for FAANG Investors

By , Statista 

Things went from bad to worse for FAANG shareholders on Monday, as share prices of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google dropped by another 4 to 6 percent in what shapes up to be a terrible fall for America’s tech heavyweights. 

Since the beginning of September, every one of the FAANG group has suffered significant losses in market cap, with Amazon hit particularly hard. After the-commerce giant bri...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Wreck Most Likely Gets Started Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This chart looks at the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) over the past 38-years. It has spent the majority inside of the past 25-years inside of rising channel (1).

The Long-term Trend in this index remains up, despite the softness of late.

The rally off the bottom of the channel that started in 2009, hit the top of the channel in September, as monthly momentum reached levels last seen in 2000. The price and momentum decline over the past 7-weeks has both testing 9-year rising support at (2).

...



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Insider Scoop

20 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: FL) rose 15.4 percent to $53.15 in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected earnings for its third quarter on Tuesday.
  • Ability Inc. (NASDAQ: ABIL) rose 14.2 percent to $3.22 in pre-market trading after the company announced plans to acquire a company that licences Ultimate Interception for $1 million in Ability stock plus warrants.
  • Qudian Inc. (NYSE: QD) rose 11.4 percent to $4.79 in pre-market trading...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 18, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A rough Monday sunk chances for a positive week on the indexes as the choppy action continues.   As we mentioned in last week’s recap while some technical indicators improved, solid markets show lower volatility than what we are currently seeing.  This week will be interesting because there is usually a positive bias Thanksgiving week as many professional traders are off for the week!  Not much news worthy this week – some fears around oil, Brexit, China trade, etc etc – mostly technical conditions continue to be weak.

Macro headwinds, including trade tensions, rising interest rates, a stronger dollar, and slowing growth abroad have also helped to trigger a pivot towards negative sentiment in the market. “This is where peak earnings growth comes in,” Essaye said, argui...



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Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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