Posts Tagged ‘forward earnings estimates’

Charts Show Analysts Historically Overestimate Corporate Earnings by 100%

Charts Show Analysts Historically Overestimate Corporate Earnings by 100%

Courtesy of Mish

In response to Five Reasons for Nonsensical Forward Earnings Estimates several people sent me a link to a McKinsey Quarterly report Equity analysts: Still too bullish

No executive would dispute that analysts’ forecasts serve as an important benchmark of the current and future health of companies. To better understand their accuracy, we undertook research nearly a decade ago that produced sobering results. Analysts, we found, were typically over-optimistic, slow to revise their forecasts to reflect new economic conditions, and prone to making increasingly inaccurate forecasts when economic growth declined.


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Moreover, analysts have been persistently overoptimistic for the past 25 years, with estimates ranging from 10 to 12 percent a year, 4 compared with actual earnings growth of 6 percent. Over this time frame, actual earnings growth surpassed forecasts in only two instances, both during the earnings recovery following a recession. On average, analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100 percent too high.

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Here are my Five Reasons Explaining this Phenomenon.

Reasons for Nonsensical Earnings Estimates 

  • Analysts do not do their homework on what is really happening and why. Instead they see rising earnings and take them at face value, nearly always figuring following quarters will be better yet.
  • Analysts do not understand the dynamics of debt deflation, peak credit, the baby boomer retirement dynamics, etc. In short, Analysts do not understand the global macro picture is bleak.
  • Analysts look at a steep yield curve and think the Fed can lift the economy.
  • Analysts have not yet caught on to the fact that consumer spending and bank lending attitudes have changed for good.
  • Analysts in general have a vested interest in getting the public to buy stocks, annuities, etc. because that is how they make money.

Given that debt deflation, and attitudes were not issues in many past blown estimates, a second look suggests points #1 and #5 (especially 5) are the real reasons in play.

Regardless of the reasons, the key point is forward earnings estimates have been ratcheted up several times in the past year and are now wildly optimistic. I don’t believe them and history suggests you should not either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday....Inflation Shminflation

 

Momentum Monday….Inflation Shminflation

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith.

Happy Monday.

Some great golf this weekend at Torrey Pines. Max and I spent the day there on Thursday and we had a blast. Last year I joined Silverleaf in Scottsdale which is the home course for John Rahm, Tony Finau and Max Homa. It has been a great year for all the golfers which no doubt the...



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Zero Hedge

S&P Futures, Global Stocks Rebound From Friday's Rout Ahead Of Fed Speaker Parade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US equity futures and global stocks recovered some of their Friday losses after hitting a four-week low earlier in Monday's session, as investors dipped their toe and bought risk after last week’s surprise hawkish shift by the Fed even as the dollar hovered below a 10-week high. S&P 500 futures rebounded after spending most of the Asia session in the red, while Europe's Stoxx 600 Index also recovered from an earlier loss, with U.K. grocer Wm Morrison Supermarkets surging 32% after rejecting an unsolicited takeover bid, sending shares of peers Tes...



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Digital Currencies

Inside a ransomware attack: how dark webs of cybercriminals collaborate to pull one off

 

Inside a ransomware attack: how dark webs of cybercriminals collaborate to pull one off

BeeBright/Shutterstock

Courtesy of David S. Wall, University of Leeds

In their Carbis Bay communique, the G7 announced their intention to work together to tackle ransomware groups. Days later, US president Joe Biden met with Russia...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Counterfeiting - the underworld threat to beating COVID-19

 

Counterfeiting – the underworld threat to beating COVID-19

Counterfeit vaccines, testing kits, and vaccine passports are undermining the global fight against COVID-19. AnaLysiSStudiO/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Mark Stevenson, Lancaster University

While the word “counterfeit” may conjure up images of fake cash and knock-off handbags, the pharmaceutical industry – and with it, the fight against COVID-19 – has been significantly affected by illicit goods.

In a major operation, Interpol recently ...



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Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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