Posts Tagged ‘Franklin Roosevelt’

The Worst Is Yet to Come

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Le Café Américain

The Worst Is Yet to Come

One of the favorite retail analysts in the Cafe is Howard Davidowitz, and he is probably in the top ten overall. The accomplished shoppers in our crowd (predominantly the ladies for some reason, who have a canny sense of price and demand and store quality, whereas yours truly becomes overwhelmed by a numbing dread upon entering most retail establishments of the non-Home Depot or non-electronics persuasion) all tend to shake their heads in agreement when David speaks to the ups and downs of specific store chains and trends. I can think of no higher recommendation, for these are for the most part the front line consumers and they take their duties seriously.

Last night in speaking with a youngish acquaintance just completing law school (another one, alas) who was looking for advice on long term investments we observed that now is the time to remain liquid because ‘the worst is yet to come.’

In 1999 I began an intense study of market bubbles and crashes as mentioned before. This included buying contemporary magazines and newspapers and reading them to see what was going through people’s minds.

Today reminds me of the briefly sunny period in 1930-1 when most economists and public officials agreed that the Depression was already over and the economy was back on track. President Hoover dismissed a delegation of businessmen who came to Washington with ideas on stabilizing the economy with "Too late gentlemen, the slump is over."

There are few things from my childhood that I remember more vividly than grandmother’s comments regarding this false recovery. "If we knew what was coming, we would have killed ourselves." This from as strong a person as I have ever encountered, with a faith that would break rocks. The Great Depression left an indelible mark, or more accurately scar, on her entire family, and my father’s as well.

And I never heard the name "Franklin Roosevelt" from her lips without it being preceded by "God bless" followed by "he saved my family." Not all of her children unfortunately. She said she cried so much and so often that she was never able to cry again. And she did not, even at the end.

Of course it was the second half of the great stock decline after the 1929


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